跟讀練習: Here's what's REALLY Happening... - 通過影片學習英語口語

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What's up, everyone?

大家好，最近怎麼樣？

All right, in today's episode, I'm going to break down a shift that's occurring in the market.

好的，在今天的節目中，我將分析市場上正在發生的一種轉變。

It began last week, but is continuing in earnest Monday and Tuesday of this week.

這件事上週就開始了，但本週一和週二還在持續推進。

In fact, if we look at the market right now as a whole, our leading gainer is up only 58%.

事實上，如果我們縱觀當前整個市場，漲幅最高的股票也只上漲了58%。

It's GoPro, 160 million share flow of stock, and they've got a merger catalyst, which is fine.

這是GoPro，有1.6億股的流通股，而且還有合併的催化劑，這很不錯。

But the fact that our leading gainer is up only 58%, number one, and that it's a stock with 160 million share float really says something about the sentiment in the market.

但我們漲幅最高的股票僅上漲了58%，而且這還是一隻流通股為1.6億股的股票，這一事實確實反映了市場的情緒狀況。

So this shift has been a shift from control among buyers to control among sellers.

因此，這種轉變是從買方掌控主導權轉向賣方掌控主導權。

The point of control has shifted from the buy side to the sell side.

控制權已經從買方轉移到了賣方。

And so during these periods, when the sellers are in control, we as long-biased traders have to be very careful.

因此在這些賣方掌控市場的時期，我們這些傾向做多的交易者必須格外謹慎。

Now August is in the history books.

如今八月已載入史冊。

We're now starting a brand new month.

我們現在開啟了全新的一個月。

And I wanted to begin this month by exercising discipline, staying focused on trading quality over quantity,

我本想在這個月一開始就保持自律，專注於交易的質量而非數量，

recognizing that just a few really good trades have the power to create an incredible month.

要知道，幾筆真正出色的交易就足以創造一個極其亮眼的交易月。

So before we jump into everything from today and talking a little bit more about the shift that's occurring, let's take a look back at the month of August.

在我們深入探討今天的所有內容、進一步討論正在發生的轉變之前，讓我們先回顧一下八月份的情況。

This is an exercise that I really encourage all of you to do in your own trading.

這是一項我非常鼓勵你們所有人在自己的交易中去做的練習。

Whether you use TraderView, which is the software that I'm using for analyzing my trading history, or using a different platform, it doesn't really matter.

無論你是使用我用來分析交易記錄的軟體TraderView，還是使用其他平臺，其實都不重要。

Essentially, they all do more or less the same thing.

從根本上來說，它們的功能都大同小異。

They aggregate your trades so you can look at the data and better understand your strengths and weaknesses.

它們會彙總您的交易記錄，讓您能夠檢視資料，更清楚地瞭解自己的優勢和不足。

I want to look at weaknesses because those are the things that you probably should really stop doing.

我想看看不足之處，因為這些可能是你真正應該停止做的事情。

And if you could stop doing them, they could potentially have a very significant impact on your profitability at the end of each week, month, and year.

如果你能停止這些行為，它們就有可能對你每週、每月以及每年年底的盈利產生非常顯著的影響。

So as I look back at the month of August, and by the way, let me just move this over for one second.

當我回顧整個八月的時候，順便說一下，我先把這個移一下。

So if I go over to the footer of warrior trading.com, you'll see my verified earnings down here.

所以如果我去到warrior trading.com的頁尾，你會在這裡看到我經過驗證的收益記錄。

I'll just open that into a new tab.

我把它在新標籤頁中開啟就好。

And so my 2026 earnings at the end of each year, I have a audit done that audits all of my trading profits.

因此，我每年年底都會對2026年的收益進行審計，審計我所有的交易利潤。

And by the way, our Labor Day sale is underway here at Warrior Trading right now.

順便說一下，我們Warrior Trading的勞動節促銷活動現在正在進行中。

So for those of you guys who have been on the fence thinking about joining, you've done a two week trial and you didn't join at that time.

所以對於那些一直猶豫不決、考慮加入的人，或者已經參加過兩週試用但當時沒有正式加入的朋友們。

check out the Labor Day sale discounts on our Warrior Starter and Warrior Pro membership.

快來檢視我們 Warrior Starter 和 Warrior Pro 會員的勞動節促銷折扣。

All right.

好的。

So if I go over to 2026, you will see all of my broker statements.

所以如果我切換到2026年，你就能看到我所有的經紀商對賬單了。

So we now have August updated right down here.

所以我們現在這裡已經更新到八月份的資料了。

And so I began this year with about $96,000 in my account.

於是今年年初，我的賬戶裡有大約96000美元。

That was my starting balance at the beginning of the year.

那是我年初的期初餘額。

In fact, it's very similar to the current balance in my small account right now.

實際上，這和我現在那個小賬戶裡的餘額非常接近。

And by the end of August, I had a balance of about $2.1 million.

到八月底，我的賬戶餘額約為210萬美元。

So the account has grown very quickly this year, which is great.

所以這個賬戶今年增長非常快，這是件好事。

However, if we look at the month of August, you will also see a $74,000 red day and a $66,000 red day.

不過，如果我們看八月份的情況，你還會看到一個虧損74000美元的交易日和一個虧損66000美元的交易日。

Those were two of my biggest red days of the entire year.

那是我一整年裡虧損最嚴重的兩天。

It's $130,000, $140,000 lost in two days.

兩天內就損失了13萬到14萬美元。

Now, it's impossible to never have red days.

現在，完全不出現虧損日是不可能的。

That's not a realistic goal to never have a red day.

想要完全不出現虧損日，這是一個不切實際的目標。

But it is possible to stop sooner when the day starts going against you.

但當情況開始對你不利時，你完全可以更早收手。

And I made the mistake on this day

而我就在這一天犯了錯。

and then again on this day of getting stubborn

然後又在這一天變得固執起來

and sort of digging my heels in and refusing to walk away

而且我有點固執己見，堅決不肯讓步離開。

and instead continuing to trade even though everything in the market was telling me it was a bad day.

反而繼續交易，儘管市場上的一切跡象都表明今天行情不佳。

And the result was that I made my losses much, much bigger than they needed to be.

結果就是，我讓自己的損失遠遠超出了原本必要的程度。

If I had stopped trading on both of those days when I was down only 15 or $20,000,

如果那兩天我在只虧損了一萬五或兩萬美元的時候就停止交易，

I would have an extra $100,000 of profit here by the end of August.

到八月底，我在這裡就能多賺10萬美元的利潤。

That's a 50% increase in my total profitability, having finished, as you can see here, after fees and commissions at around $211,000.

我的總盈利增長了50%，如你所見，扣除費用和佣金後，最終約為211000美元。

So increasing that by 50% up to $300,000, $311,000, that's a meaningful difference.

因此，將這一金額提高50%，達到30萬美元、31.1萬美元，是一個很顯著的變化。

And the only thing I would need to do, the only thing is walk away when I'm down $20,000 and not continue trading.

而我唯一需要做的事，就是在虧損2萬美元時離場，不再繼續交易。

None of these days where I'm green, I was down more than $20,000 before recovering to green.

這些我最終盈利的日子裡，有一天我曾虧損超過2萬美元，之後才回升到盈利狀態。

So if I just stopped when I was down $20,000, that would have eliminated just some of those terrible losses.

所以如果我在虧損2萬美元時就收手，那隻能避免其中一部分慘重的損失。

So we're going to look at the month of August here.

接下來我們來看一下八月份的情況。

Let's see, we're going to go to just the last month.

我們來看看，我們就只看上個月的資料。

And this includes my small account challenge as well, but that's all right.

這也包括我的小賬戶挑戰，但沒關係。

So if we look at this, I've got $287,000 of total profit right here.

所以如果我們看一下這裡，我這裡的總利潤是287000美元。

Accuracy was about 65%.

準確率約為65%。

Average winners were 6,000.

平均中獎人數為6000人。

Average losers were 5,700.

平均下跌個股數量為5700只。

If we compare that to the last 12 months, a bigger period of time.

如果我們將其與過去12個月這段更長的時間進行比較。

You can see that my accuracy declined.

你可以看到我的準確率下降了。

My average winners got a little bigger, but my average losers got quite a bit bigger.

我的平均盈利倉位有所擴大，但平均虧損倉位擴大得更多。

So I had a few really big losses last month.

上個月我虧了好幾筆大的。

That was not good.

那可不太妙。

Let's dive a little bit deeper.

讓我們再深入探討一下。

So first thing I always check is accuracy.

所以我首先總會檢查的是準確性。

Is it stable, increasing, or decreasing?

它是穩定的、上升的還是下降的？

It decreased.

它下降了。

Average winners a little bit higher.

平均獲勝者的得分略高一些。

Average losers also a little bit higher.

平均虧損幅度也略高一些。

Okay, then I dive a little bit deeper.

好的，那我再深入探討一下。

Day of the week any themes anything sticking out oh right there that i'm getting absolutely crushed on fridays

一週裡有沒有哪天有什麼特別的規律或者不對勁的地方？哦對了，我週五總是被虐得特別慘。

this is an important observation now

這是目前一項重要的觀察結果。

if you saw this in your own trading you would i would hope make a correction

如果你在自己的交易中看到這種情況，我希望你會做出修正。

so the correction that i made

所以我做的修改

which took effect the last two fridays of august was tightening up my risk on fridays

該規定於八月的最後兩個星期五生效，它要求我在星期五加強風險管控。

and therefore was able to avoid having a repeat of those big big red days I had earlier in the month.

因此我得以避免再次出現本月早些時候那些大幅虧損的交易日。

So that's one observation.

這是一個觀察結果。

Here's another notable observation that I'm losing money between the hour of 10 and 11.

還有一個值得注意的觀察結果，我在10點到11點這段時間會虧損。

In fact, that I was making the most money between seven and eight.

事實上，我在七點到八點之間賺的錢是最多的。

Although interestingly, look at this, my frequency of trades, the most trades were between eight and nine, but I didn't produce as much profit on fewer trades.

不過有意思的是，你看，我的交易次數最多的時候是在8到9次之間，但交易次數少的時候，我獲得的利潤反而沒那麼多。

I produced more profit between seven and eight than I produced with more trades between eight and nine.

我在七點到八點之間獲得的利潤，比我在八點到九點之間進行更多交易所獲得的利潤還要高。

That is very interesting.

這非常有趣。

So why is that?

那這是為什麼呢？

I don't have an answer for why that is the case, that I did better between 7 and 8 than I did between 8 and 9.

我無法解釋為什麼會出現這種情況，我在7點到8點之間的表現比8點到9點之間更好。

I think that probably it is, I would probably attribute it to just the fact

我覺得很可能是這樣的，我大概會把這僅僅歸因於這個事實。

that there were some really good catalysts at 7 or 7.30

有一些非常出色的催化劑，其數值在7或7.30左右。

that gave me a few big wins that drew the metrics higher in that window.

這讓我取得了幾次重大成功，從而在那個時間段內大幅提升了各項指標。

but let's check over a larger period of time just to see last 12 months.

但我們不妨檢視更長的時間段，看看過去12個月的資料。

How does that check out?

這怎麼說得通呢？

Does that stay about the same?

這個情況大致保持不變嗎？

This is on $4.2 million of profit.

這是基於420萬美元的利潤計算得出的。

So it doesn't stay the same.

所以它不會保持不變。

So in the last 12 months, I've done better between eight and nine.

所以在過去的12個月裡，我的表現提升了八到九個檔次。

So seven and eight is sort of building the cushion.

所以第七和第八局算是拉開了優勢。

Eight and nine is really stepping it up.

第八部和第九部的表現確實有了明顯提升。

And then nine and 10 is cooling off.

然後第九項和第十項正在逐漸降溫。

And then I'm losing money consistently after 10 a.m.

然後從上午10點開始我就一直在虧錢。

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So at the very least, I think we can say that after 10 AM for me is a high risk, no trade zone.

所以至少我認為可以說，對我來說上午十點之後屬於高風險、不交易的時段。

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If you saw this again in your metrics, I would hope you would draw the similar conclusion.

如果您在指標中再次看到這種情況，我希望您也能得出類似的結論。

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So without a doubt, I do need to have a harder stop at 9.30,

所以毫無疑問，我確實需要在九點半就嚴格停止工作。

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10 a.m., rather than continue to trade longer and longer into the day.

上午10點，而不是繼續把交易時間越拖越晚。

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Here's something interesting.

有件很有意思的事。

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When do you think I'm most likely to trade longer into the day?

你覺得我一天當中最有可能進行較長時間交易的時段是什麼時候？

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Is it on a day when things are going great?

是不是在一切都進展順利的那一天？

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It's not.

不是這樣的。

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On a day when things are going great, it's very easy to walk away in the green.

在一切進展順利的日子裡，很容易帶著盈利離場。

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I'm more likely to stay longer on days things are not going as well because I'm feeling stubborn.

當事情進展不順利時，我反而更有可能留下來加班更久，因為我會變得很固執。

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So it's more likely that these trades were on days where I was already feeling emotionally activated.

因此，這些交易更有可能發生在我當時已經情緒激動的日子裡。

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Okay, so performance by time of day, that's a good realization there.

好的，按一天中的時段來分析表現，這是一個很好的發現。

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So in day of the week is also something worth noting.

因此，星期幾這個因素也值得注意。

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And that day of the week may also be a little more exclusive to August, you know, summer trading, but nonetheless, what about price and volume?

而且一週中的那一天可能也更集中在八月份，你知道，就是夏季交易時段，但即便如此，價格和成交量的情況又如何呢？

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So I want you guys to do the same review in your own trading.

所以我希望你們在自己的交易中也進行同樣的復盤。

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So where are you performing the best based on time of day day day of the week price

那麼根據一天中的時段、一週中的日期和價格來看，你在哪裡的表現最好？

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and volume so price by and large between two

加上成交量因素，價格大致處於兩者之間。

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and ten was a sweet spot not much between 10

而10是一個最佳平衡點，10之間的差異不大。

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and 20 there weren't a lot of trades in that window um

而在那個時間段內，交易並不多。

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and most trades were between five and ten

而大多數交易的價格都在五到十之間

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and i did quite well there not many trades below two dollars

我在那裡做得相當不錯，低於兩美元的交易並不多。

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but i got a little profit there i did better

但我在那裡賺了一點利潤，表現還不錯。

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when i trade a bigger share size

當我交易更大的倉位規模時

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that kind of goes without saying um these metrics are not super accurate i don't really know this i've I've always,

這一點其實不言而喻，這些指標並不是非常準確，我其實不太確定，我一直以來都是這樣的。

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I emailed them at one point and they didn't really give me a good answer on why the performance by, I was like, well, wait a second.

我之前給他們發過郵件，但他們根本沒給出一個合理的解釋來說明為什麼效能會下降，我當時就想，這不對啊。

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This isn't showing all of my profitability, clearly.

這顯然沒有顯示出我所有的盈利情況。

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This would make it appear that I was just losing money.

這會讓人覺得我一直在虧錢。

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Where are the winners?

獲獎者在哪裡？

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They're nowhere to be, I don't get it.

他們完全不見蹤影，我搞不懂是怎麼回事。

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I don't know.

我不知道。

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I'm not sure what that one is, whatever.

我不太確定那是什麼，無所謂了。

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Okay, so then we go to instrument.

好，那接下來我們進入儀器部分。

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We could look at the symbols that I made the most money on and the sector that they're in.

我們可以看看那些讓我賺得最多的標的，以及它們所屬的行業。

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We can look at the symbols I lost, the most money on and the sector they're in.

我們可以檢視我虧損最多的那些股票程式碼，以及它們所屬的行業板塊。

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I won't do that now just to save time, but I would encourage you to do that.

為了節省時間，我現在就不那樣做了，但我還是會鼓勵你去做。

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And if you notice the theme that there's a sector you're doing well in, you should ask yourself if that theme is continuing or if that was just a little cycle during that time.

如果你注意到自己在某個領域表現出色，就應該問問自己，這種趨勢是否會持續，還是說那只是當時的一個短暫週期。

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So we did have a really nice theme with some big moves on Chinese stocks, but I think that theme is now behind us.

因此，我們之前確實有一個非常好的主題，中國股市出現了一些大幅波動，但我認為這個主題現在已經過去了。

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I did best on stocks.

我在股票方面表現最好。

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I had more than 25 million shares of volume, as you can see here.

正如你在這裡看到的，我的交易量超過了2500萬股。

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More volume, more liquidity, easier to get in and out.

交易量更大，流動性更強，進出交易更便捷。

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Lighter volume stocks, I struggled on.

我在交易量較小的股票上操作很吃力。

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so you know that's something to pay attention to

所以你要知道這是需要注意的地方

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and then performance by instrument relative volume did the best on stocks

隨後，按不同工具的相對成交量來衡量的表現，在股票上的表現最佳。

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that had at least five times 500 percent five times higher

至少高出五倍，也就是500%的五倍。

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volume on the day i traded it versus the 50-day average

我交易當天的成交量與50日平均成交量的對比

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and these ones were losses now some of these were instances where i was trying to predict and anticipate

而這些是虧損的情況，其中有一些是我當時試圖進行預測和預判的情況。

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that a stock was going to make a big move this

某隻股票即將迎來一波大幅行情

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is also true with some of these i got in a

我買的這些東西里有一些也存在這種情況。

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little early before it had enough volume before it had the highest relative volume

在它達到足夠交易量、出現最高相對交易量之前，還稍微早了一點。

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and i can't say for for sure

而且我也不能肯定地說。

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that i didn't have any success in those areas

我在那些領域沒有取得任何成功

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but generally speaking it didn't work out very well this month

但總的來說，這個月進展不太順利。

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so um and then market behavior is a little bit less um less of an issue just because

所以嗯，接下來市場行為的問題就沒那麼大了，只是因為

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that is sort of just tied to the overall market um

這在某種程度上與整體市場息息相關。

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it's it's it doesn't usually have a quite strong correlation here

這裡通常沒有很強的相關性。

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and then the win-loss expectation you can see this is a roller coaster

然後你可以看到，勝負預期就像坐過山車一樣起伏不定。

156

that i was on for the month of august and

我八月份一直在參與的那個專案，而且

157

so this is where i said to myself i really don't want to continue

就在這時，我對自己說，我真的不想再繼續下去了。

158

that for the month of september i want to kind of try to smooth

我想在九月份試著把事情理順一下。

159

that out a little bit so well if i stop trading

稍微調整一下，如果我停止交易的話效果會很好。

160

when i'm down 20 grand i'm a little more cautious on

當我虧了兩萬美元的時候，我就會變得更謹慎一些。

161

fridays i'm i'm careful about the time of day i'm trading

週五的時候，我會特別留意交易的時間段。

162

and i'm avoiding stocks with lower relative volume those are three

我會避開相對成交量較低的股票，這就是三個要點。

163

or four adjustments

或者四次調整

164

that can have a meaningful impact on my profitability they could

這會對我的盈利能力產生重大影響，他們完全可以做到。

165

actually improve my profitability by as much as 50 percent wow are there some things

實際上能將我的盈利能力提升高達50%，哇，還有其他相關的內容嗎？

166

that you could do

你能做到的

167

that could have improved your profitability by as much as 50 for last month now

這原本可以讓你上個月的利潤提升多達50%

168

if you haven't looked at your metrics you have no idea

如果你沒有檢視過自己的指標資料，你根本就不清楚情況。

169

so take a few minutes to look at your metrics with

所以花幾分鐘時間檢視一下您的各項指標

170

and look i have no affiliate relationship with trader view

而且你看，我和Trader View沒有任何推廣合作關係。

171

or anyone else i just i make recommendations based on what i I genuinely think is the best software.

或者說對其他人也是一樣，我只是根據我真心認為最好的軟體來做推薦。

172

I've been using TraderView for more than a decade.

我使用TraderView已經有十多年了。

173

So I've got more than 10 years of trading metrics all in this same platform.

我在這個平臺上已經積累了超過十年的交易指標資料。

174

And, you know, look, so I've been obviously I've been using it for a long time.

而且，你知道，你看，我顯然已經用了很長時間了。

175

I like it well enough to continue using it.

我挺喜歡它的，會繼續用下去。

176

There's a little bit of a switching mode, which is that it's kind of hard to switch when you've got 10 years of data all in one platform.

存在一定的切換壁壘，當你所有資料都在一個平臺上積累了十年之後，要切換平臺就會變得相當困難。

177

So I do stick with it for that reason.

所以我正是因為這個原因才堅持下來的。

178

That's nearly $24 million of trading profits and showing 68% accuracy, the profit loss ratio.

這相當於近2400萬美元的交易利潤，準確率達到68%，即盈虧比。

179

So all you have to do is go import trades, and then you could choose whatever broker you're using.

所以你只需要去匯入交易記錄，然後就可以選擇你正在使用的任何經紀商。

180

And when you choose the broker, like you choose Thinkorswim, they walk you through how to export your trades, and then you just import them.

當你選擇經紀商，比如選擇Thinkorswim時，他們會一步步教你如何匯出交易記錄，之後你只需匯入這些記錄即可。

181

And then boom, you let the import run, and then you can go and do the metrics.

然後一下子，你讓匯入程式執行起來，接著就可以去處理指標了。

182

So I really encourage you guys to do this.

所以我真的很鼓勵你們大家去嘗試一下。

183

Now, was August a good month for me.

話說回來，八月對我來說是不是個好月份呢。

184

It was a good month.

這個月過得很不錯。

185

And let's just sort this by IRA.

那我們就按IRA來排序吧。

186

So this is my individual retirement account.

這就是我的個人退休賬戶。

187

Oops.

哎呀。

188

And I'm just going to go year to date here for the IRA.

接下來我將檢視IRA今年迄今為止的資料。

189

So year to date, big picture, this was August.

那麼從年初到現在，整體來看，這就是八月份的情況。

190

This is the year to date, right?

這是今年迄今為止的資料，對吧？

191

So January was awesome.

一月份真是太棒了。

192

February, March, April was April was the worst. May improved.

二月、三月、四月，四月是最糟糕的一個月。五月情況有所好轉。

193

June was amazing.

六月過得太棒了。

194

July slowed down a little bit, but was still set really good third best month

7月份的增長速度略有放緩，但仍然是表現非常出色的歷史第三好月份。

195

and then august has kind of come back down a little

然後到了八月份，情況又稍微有所回落。

196

bit closer to the baseline the baseline being around 200k a month you know a little bit below it

更接近基準線了，基準線大概是每月20萬，你知道的，略低於這個數。

197

but a little bit above it so that's fifty thousand dollars a week right

但會稍微高一點，所以一週就是五萬美元，對吧？

198

so you know ten thousand dollars a day and

所以你知道一天一萬美元，而且

199

that that's pretty that's pretty solid so that's where we were for august

這相當不錯，非常穩定，這就是我們八月份的情況。

200

and now the question is what's september gonna look like is it gonna go like this

現在的問題是，九月份會是什麼樣的，會是這樣發展嗎？

201

and we're gonna finish just with a very sad end of the year

而我們將以一個非常令人難過的方式結束這一年。

202

or is it gonna go like this and we're gonna have a phenomenal finish to the year.

還是說會這樣發展，讓我們迎來一個非常出色的年終收尾。

203

We don't know.

我們不知道。

204

We don't know what the market holds for us, but what we can control is how much risk we're willing to take.

我們無法預知市場會帶來什麼，但我們能控制的是自己願意承擔多大的風險。

205

And so I will take risk when I see good quality setups.

因此，當我看到高質量的交易機會時，我會承擔風險。

206

So now let's talk about the shift that's been occurring in the last week or so.

那麼現在我們來談談過去一週左右發生的轉變。

207

So if you recall from last week, we had a few stocks that made some pretty dramatic moves.

大家應該還記得上週，有幾隻股票出現了相當劇烈的波動。

208

So I added, I've got these slides here to add to the classes.

所以我補充了一下，我這裡有一些幻燈片可以用於課堂教學。

209

So we had Archon from last week.

所以我們上週剛打完了Archon。

210

That did a round trip.

那完成了一次往返。

211

We had FTFT.

我們當時用的是FTFT。

212

That did a round trip.

那完成了一次往返。

213

We had, let's see, which other ones were there?

我們之前有過，讓我想想，還有哪些來著？

214

I feel like I added a couple others.

我感覺我又加了幾個。

215

But anyways, well, those two for sure.

不過不管怎麼說，那兩個肯定是沒問題的。

216

And then we had CRE, which did the big pop, but then pulled back.

接下來我們看到CRE出現了大幅上漲，但隨後又回落了。

217

So we're noticing this theme where stocks are squeezing quickly, but they're not holding up.

我們注意到這樣一個規律：股票會快速拉昇，但後續漲勢無法持續。

218

Now, the biotech sector, this is a biotech ETF, XBI, has done exceptionally well this year.

現在來看生物技術板塊，這是一隻生物科技ETF，程式碼XBI，今年的表現非常出色。

219

It's had its best year in basically since the pandemic.

這基本上是自疫情以來表現最好的一年。

220

It's been doing really well.

它的表現一直非常好。

221

This was the pandemic back here.

當時這裡正處於疫情期間。

222

So biotech has been hot.

所以生物技術領域一直很熱門。

223

You had like five years where it was a little cooler, and then it's really picked up here 2025 into 2026.

之前有五年時間氣溫稍微偏低一些，然後從2025年到2026年，氣溫就明顯上升了。

224

So yes, we are seeing that there's a tailwind behind a lot of these biotech companies.

是的，我們確實看到許多生物技術公司正面臨一股順風。

225

We're seeing bigger moves.

我們看到了更大的波動。

226

When a biotech stock is coming out with breaking news, traders are really quick to jump on it right now.

每當有生物科技股傳出重大訊息時，交易員們現在都會迅速抓住機會。

227

And, you know, I don't blame them.

而且，你知道的，我並不怪他們。

228

I've always loved biotech stocks.

我一直都很喜歡生物科技類股票。

229

When you have a small biotech company that comes out with good news, this can be a make or break event for the company.

當一家小型生物技術公司傳出好訊息時，這可能成為決定該公司成敗的關鍵事件。

230

This can be the thing that puts this company on the map

這可能就是讓這家公司一舉成名的關鍵。

231

that makes them a target for a buyout by a much larger company

這使得它們成為規模大得多的公司收購的目標。

232

or where they keep the asset they've been developing and they start doing licensing.

或者他們會將一直開發的資產保留在那裡，並開始進行授權業務。

233

When they go through their clinical trials and then if they get FDA approval, I mean, these can be really big.

當它們完成臨床試驗並獲得FDA批准後，我是說，這些產品可能會產生巨大的影響。

234

However, a lot of these small cap companies, the way they operate is they IPO, they sell shares on the public market,

然而，許多這類小盤股公司的運作方式是先進行IPO，然後在公開市場上出售股票。

235

selling the vision of what they're working on, working for a cure to some incurable disease, typically.

他們通常會描繪自己正在從事的工作願景，比如致力於研發某種不治之症的治癒方法。

236

And investors buy into that.

而投資者也對此表示認可。

237

But typically, these things are very difficult, as you would imagine, to solve for.

但通常來說，正如你所想的那樣，這些問題很難解決。

238

And so months and years go by, and the company spends a lot of money on research and development.

就這樣，月復一月，年復一年，這家公司在研發上投入了大量資金。

239

And during all of that time, they're spending the money that they raised from their initial public offering.

在這段時間裡，他們一直在消耗通過首次公開募股籌集到的資金。

240

And so if you look at the Q2 quarterly filing for BIAF, and we scroll down here, You can see that their cash was about $2.4 million on the balance sheet as of June 26.

所以如果你檢視 BIAF 的第二季度季度申報檔案，往下翻，就會看到截至 6 月 26 日，他們資產負債表上的現金約為 240 萬美元。

241

$2.4 million, that sounds like they're in pretty good shape.

240萬美元，聽起來他們的財務狀況相當不錯。

242

Until you look at their three months ending, June 2026, and you see that they're spending over $3.3 million.

直到你檢視他們截至2026年6月的三個月資料，就會發現他們的支出超過了330萬美元。

243

They've got a loss from operations every quarter.

他們每個季度的運營都處於虧損狀態。

244

So that has them going out to $12 million a year.

這樣一來，他們每年的支出就達到了1200萬美元。

245

Well, they've only got $2.4 million on the balance sheet.

嗯，他們的資產負債表上只有240萬美元。

246

So what are they going to do?

那他們打算怎麼做？

247

Well, there's only so many things they can do.

他們能做的事情也就這麼多了。

248

But notice here that they've got a shelf registration, which they just filed.

但請注意，他們剛剛提交了一份貨架註冊申請。

249

There's a high likelihood

可能性很高

250

that they're going to take the opportunity to sell shares on

他們打算藉此機會出售所持股份。

251

the open market to raise money to continue funding their research and development.

通過公開市場籌集資金，以持續為其研發提供資金支援。

252

Now, these companies will sometimes and often will solicit institutional investors.

現在，這些公司有時甚至經常會向機構投資者募集資金。

253

So go to a big institutional investor who'll just write them one big check for $50 million.

所以去找一個大型機構投資者，他們會直接給他們開一張5000萬美元的大額支票。

254

That's easy if they can find an institutional investor

如果他們能找到一個機構投資者，那事情就好辦了。

255

that believes in them the institutional investor gets a discount on the stock price

那些對該公司有信心的機構投資者可以獲得股票價格的折扣。

256

when they write the check so they'll say yeah i'll give you 50 million dollars

當他們開支票的時候，他們會說，對，我給你5000萬美元。

257

but i get the stock at you know two dollars a share instead of five dollars

但我是以每股兩美元的價格拿到股票，而不是五美元。

258

and that's called a private placement and usually when

這被稱為私募，通常情況下

259

that happens it's relatively bullish

如果出現這種情況，那相對來說是看漲的。

260

because obviously this investor wrote them a big check they're not

很明顯，這位投資者給他們開了一張大額支票，所以他們才不會（這麼做）。

261

going to need to raise money anytime soon in a direct offering on the market

近期需要通過市場直接發行的方式進行融資

262

and that investor typically isn't going to turn around and and sell those shares tomorrow.

而且那些投資者通常不會在第二天就轉手賣出那些股票。

263

So usually we can feel pretty confident

所以通常我們可以相當有信心。

264

that the float dynamic is going to stay basically the same for a period of time.

浮動籌碼的動態在一段時間內基本會保持不變。

265

The company is not going to be selling, and therefore we have the potential for a big move to the upside during

該公司不會進行出售，因此我們在這段時間內有很大的上漲潛力。

266

that sort of window right after the news comes out.

就是那種訊息剛釋出之後的視窗期。

267

But if they can't find an institutional investor willing to write them a big check,

但如果他們找不到願意開出大額支票的機構投資者，

268

then they end up having to just sell the shares on the open market.

最終他們只能在公開市場上出售這些股票。

269

So on a day like today when the stock has 30 million shares of volume,

所以像今天這樣，當這隻股票的成交量達到3000萬股時，

270

they could be selling 3 or 4 or 5 million shares right on the market at $7 a share.

他們可能會以每股7美元的價格在市場上直接出售300萬、400萬或500萬股股票。

271

So that could raise them $20, $30 million just by selling those shares.

因此，僅通過出售這些股份，他們就可能籌集到2000萬至3000萬美元的資金。

272

But the problem is it has a real effect on the price of the stock.

但問題在於，它確實會對股票價格產生實際影響。

273

All that selling is pushing the stock down.

所有這些拋售行為都在壓低股價。

274

This is very common with biotech companies specifically.

這種情況在生物技術公司中尤其常見。

275

So if the news is really, really good, it can overcome the company selling into the stock price, typically.

因此，如果訊息面極其利好，通常足以抵消公司減持對股價造成的拋壓。

276

If the news is a private placement, and typically a private placement is also released at the same time as a fundamental catalyst.

如果該訊息涉及定向增發，那麼定向增發通常也會與一項基本面催化劑同時釋出。

277

So they're like, we have great news and we have someone who's funding us.

他們就說，我們有個好訊息，有人給我們提供資金了。

278

Those come out at the same time and the stock usually is very positive, goes up quite nicely.

這些訊息同時釋出，通常股票會表現非常積極，漲勢相當不錯。

279

Those are scenarios where we can get some really clean price action.

在這些情境下，我們能夠觀察到非常清晰的價格走勢。

280

But in this instance, we've got a headline where they're expanding on a market.

但在這個例子中，我們看到的是一條關於他們正在拓展某個市場的新聞標題。

281

It seems like a kind of vague headline.

這看起來像是一個含糊其辭的標題。

282

So initially, I was like, I don't really know how well this is going to work.

一開始我還真不太確定這個效果會怎麼樣。

283

The stock ends up squeezing, but we also know they just filed a shelf registration like three days ago.

這隻股票最終出現了軋空行情，但我們也知道他們三天前才剛剛提交了一份儲架註冊申請。

284

So I was hesitant.

所以我當時很猶豫。

285

and I said to myself, you know what?

我當時就對自己說，你知道嗎？

286

Quality over quantity.

質量優先於數量。

287

Having three candles going up is awesome.

連續三根陽線上漲真是太棒了。

288

And if you can be quick, you can absolutely jump in and jump out and profit from these.

如果你反應夠快，完全可以快進快出，從中獲利。

289

And I often will.

而且我經常會這樣做。

290

But being the beginning of the new month and having seen as many round trips as we've seen recently, I kind of wanted to just hold tight for a second.

但現在是月初，而且我們最近已經經歷了那麼多輪的漲跌來回，我其實有點想先暫時觀望一下。

291

So it popped up to 646 and I said to myself, it barely even has half a million shares of volume.

於是它突然漲到了646，我心裡想，它的成交量連50萬股都不到。

292

I don't know the volume's too light then it pushes a

我不知道，音量太輕了，然後它就會突然變大

293

little higher drops back down pushes higher drops back down pushes

小幅上漲後回落，再推高，又回落，再拉昇

294

higher drops back down was watching it right there for the break of eight

價格衝高後回落，當時我正盯著盤面，等著它跌破8點關口。

295

and thought i just don't know it's a little extended you've got

我當時還以為自己不太清楚，你這個稍微有點延長了。

296

that higher volume red candle i'm gonna wait hits 8 50 then it dips down

那根高成交量的紅色蠟燭圖，我會等它漲到8.50，然後它就會下跌。

297

and that was the whole move just like that that was it

整個動作就是這樣，就這麼簡單，結束了。

298

then it rallies back up here and rejects off the double top no more no more action on that

隨後價格在這裡反彈回升，在雙頂形態處遇阻回落，之後該形態就不再有後續走勢了。

299

sells off and then coming into the open it rallies back up

先是出現拋售，隨後在開盤時又反彈回升。

300

and we get to move all the way up to eight

而且我們最多可以一直升到8級。

301

which was nice it pulls back then it comes back up to eight

這感覺很不錯，它會先往後拉，然後再回升到八。

302

and then it halts uh going down right back here it was right here

然後它就停住了，嗯，就在這裡往下走，剛才就在這裡。

303

that it halted going down so it really reversed hard

它停止了下跌，隨後確實出現了強勁的反轉。

304

and now it's just selling off more

而現在它只是在進一步拋售資產。

305

so is it possible the company is selling shares

那麼這家公司有可能在出售股份嗎？

306

or through an underwriter they're selling shares today it's very possible i don't know that that's what's happening but it's very possible.

或者通過承銷商，他們今天正在出售股票。這完全有可能，我不能確定情況是否如此，但確實存在這種可能性。

307

So unfortunately, BIAF is, this all ties into this shift in sentiment where we were quite bullish through June,

很遺憾，BIAF 的情況與市場情緒的轉變密切相關，我們在六月份之前一直相當樂觀。

308

July, and August, but then in August, we were seeing some tremors.

七月和八月，但到了八月，我們開始察覺到一些震動。

309

We were seeing a few more round trips, some really dramatic round trips where we'd have a stock that squeezed up and then came all the way back down.

我們看到了更多的來回波動，有些波動非常劇烈，一隻股票先是被拉昇，然後又一路跌回原點。

310

And some of these were violent, five, 10-point moves, and then all the way back down.

其中有些波動非常劇烈，漲跌幅度達到5點、10點，然後又一路回落。

311

So it's pretty scary.

所以這挺嚇人的。

312

And certainly, if you got caught on the wrong side of that, you could get completely destroyed.

當然，如果你站錯了隊，就可能會被徹底擊垮。

313

And what happened to me on some of my biggest losses in August was

而在八月份我遭遇的幾次最慘重虧損中，發生在我身上的事是

314

that I would miss the first move up here because it happened

我會錯過這裡的第一波上漲行情，因為它發生的時候

315

so fast and on volume that I felt was too light.

速度很快，但我覺得音量太輕了。

316

And then I'd start jumping in it here and here and just catch these huge rejections, and I was right on the stock.

然後我開始在這裡、這裡進場，結果就遭遇了大幅的反向打壓，而我當時對這隻股票的判斷完全正確。

317

And so today, I said, I don't want to do that on BIAF.

所以今天我說，我不想在BIAF上那樣做。

318

If it continues higher, there might be an opportunity, but I didn't see one right here before the opening bell.

如果它繼續走高，或許會出現機會，但在開盤前我目前還沒看到這樣的機會。

319

And so I did not take any trades on this in my main Roth IRA.

因此，我沒有在我的主要Roth IRA賬戶中進行任何相關交易。

320

I just said, no, I'm not going to do it.

我剛才就說了，不，我不會去做的。

321

I didn't take any trades on it in my small account either because I just didn't feel good about it.

我用小賬戶也沒有做任何相關交易，因為我就是對它感覺不太好。

322

And then the bell rang at 930.

然後九點半的時候鈴響了。

323

And of course, we did get some continuation there after the open.

當然，開盤後市場確實延續了之前的走勢。

324

But nonetheless, in this window here, I just said, nope, it's not happening.

但即便如此，在這個窗口裡，我剛才說不行，這事成不了。

325

MACD went negative.

MACD 指標轉為負值。

326

It sells off some more.

它又進一步下跌了。

327

But the problem was that was our leading gainer.

但問題是，那是我們漲幅最大的股票。

328

We look at what else was on the scans and we had SSM.

我們查看了掃描影像上的其他內容，發現了 SSM。

329

Well, look at this chart.

嗯，你看這張圖表。

330

Big squeeze after hours.

盤後出現大幅擠壓行情。

331

Same thing.

都一樣。

332

You get a big pop, three candles, and then it kind of is sideways.

你會看到一次大幅拉昇，出現三根蠟燭線，然後走勢就開始橫盤整理了。

333

And that's it.

就是這樣。

334

You get FL Fly E, whatever.

你會得到 FL Fly E，隨便吧。

335

They make electric bikes.

他們生產電動腳踏車。

336

All right, so price of oil is up.

好的，那麼油價上漲了。

337

Electric bikes are hot.

電動腳踏車現在很熱門。

338

All right, whatever.

行吧，隨便吧。

339

Big pop, rejection, and now it's all on the backside, coming back down.

大幅衝高、遭遇拋壓，現在行情完全轉向下行，開始回落。

340

So that's no good.

那這樣可不行。

341

RDAC, this one popped up, reversed, then comes up a little bit here.

RDAC，這個彈出來，反轉了，然後在這裡稍微升上來一點。

342

And so my feeling right now is that the sellers are in control.

所以我現在的感覺是，賣方佔據主導地位。

343

And that's been the shift, the shift of point of control from buyers to sellers.

這就是發生的轉變，控制權從買方轉移到了賣方手中。

344

So when the sellers are in control, I've got to kind of batten down the hatches.

所以當賣家佔據主導地位時，我就得做好應對準備。

345

I've got to trade with smaller size.

我得用更小的倉位進行交易。

346

I've got to keep light on my toes.

我得保持警覺，隨時應變。

347

And rather than assume that things are going to work, assume that they won't work.

與其假設事情會順利進行，不如假設它們會出問題。

348

If it starts to work, if it starts to surprise me, then I can reconsider.

如果它開始起作用，開始給我帶來驚喜，那我可以重新考慮。

349

And it's not to be pessimistic.

這並不是要悲觀。

350

It's to be realistic that the current sentiment is on the sell side.

現實一點說，當前市場情緒偏向賣方。

351

And so is this the time to take big risk and throw Hail Mary passes?

那麼，現在是不是該冒大風險、孤注一擲的時候了？

352

And you should never really probably do that.

而且你真的絕對不應該那麼做。

353

But if you were going to, this certainly is not the time to do it.

但如果你非要這麼做，現在絕對不是合適的時機。

354

When the market's really hot and you're seeing back-to-back 300, 400, 500% moves, that might be the time to go out on a limb and take some risk.

當市場行情異常火爆，你看到連續出現300%、400%、500%的漲幅時，或許就是該放手一搏、承擔一些風險的時候了。

355

And I will do that.

我會那麼做的。

356

but it's not right now.

但現在還不是時候。

357

So I'm going to be trading less while it's cooler, but I'm going to wait for stocks that actually prove

所以在市場行情相對平淡的時候我會減少交易，而是等待那些真正能證明自身實力的股票出現。

358

that they can hold up because I'm going to assume

它們能撐得住，因為我假設

359

that we're going to continue to see more of these pops and reversals.

我們將繼續看到更多這樣的暴漲和反轉行情。

360

And those are layups for a short seller, right?

這些對做空者來說簡直是送分題，對吧？

361

And it goes up and it comes right back down and shorts win on that.

價格先是上漲，然後又立刻回落，空頭就會在這波行情中獲利。

362

Something like BIAF, this was probably an easy double top rejection for a short seller as it came back down

像 BIAF 這類股票，對於做空者來說這很可能是一次很容易識別的雙頂回落訊號，之後股價就開始下跌了。

363

and then rejected 8.50 again and drops back down.

隨後再次在8.50位置遇阻回落。

364

So I don't want to feed into that weakness by buying and buying and buying up at the top, buying shares that are being sold to me by a short seller.

所以我不想在高位不斷買入，助長這種弱點，去接那些做空者賣給我的股票。

365

So I don't want to contribute liquidity to that move.

所以我不想為那波行情提供流動性。

366

I just want to sit completely on the sidelines.

我只想完全置身事外。

367

And more traders will do that.

會有更多交易員這樣做。

368

More traders will sit on the sidelines and they'll say, you know what, I'm not going to jump into this.

更多交易者會選擇觀望，他們會說，你知道的，我不會貿然進場。

369

Now, there are a lot of beginner traders in the market

現在市場上有很多新手交易者。

370

that in the last few months got spoiled from the big momentum of, you know, June, July, and August, and they're going to keep buying anything that pops up.

過去幾個月裡，市場在六、七、八月的強勁漲勢下被慣壞了，只要有新標的出現，他們就會持續買入。

371

Something spikes up and they're jumping in it.

一旦某個領域出現爆發性增長，他們就會一窩蜂地衝進去。

372

And they're going to realize when they keep catching these, you know, round trip huge rejections that maybe that works in certain markets, but it's not working right now.

他們會逐漸意識到，當他們不斷遭遇這種來回的巨大拒絕時，這種做法或許在某些市場行得通，但現在已經不管用了。

373

And I got to take my foot off the gas.

而且我得放慢節奏了。

374

I got to slow down.

我得放慢節奏了。

375

As they stop buying, then the moves get smaller and smaller.

當他們停止買入時，價格波動就會變得越來越小。

376

Shorts get more and more aggressive until we reach a point where the second something pops up, shorts are hammering it, and it actually ends up going red.

空頭的操作會越來越激進，直到達到一個臨界點：一旦有任何訊息出現，空頭就會猛烈打壓，最終導致行情轉跌。

377

In spite of having news.

儘管有訊息傳來。

378

We will see that.

我們拭目以待。

379

There's no question about it.

這是毫無疑問的。

380

We've seen that in previous cycles.

我們在之前的週期中已經看到過這種情況。

381

And then you'll have a stock where actually the news is good.

接下來你就會遇到一隻實際上利好訊息不斷的股票。

382

And maybe short sellers kind of, you know, were a little overconfident just hitting it to the short side.

或許那些做空者當時有點過於自信，一味地往做空的方向押注。

383

And this is a company that, well, you look at their filings and they actually don't need to raise money.

這家公司，你看他們的申報檔案就會發現，其實根本不需要融資。

384

Maybe they have a shelf registration, but they've got enough cash on their balance sheet that they don't need to raise money.

或許他們已經進行了儲架發行備案，但資產負債表上的現金充足，因此無需融資。

385

Or maybe they have a private placement, and so they're not going to raise money because of that.

或者他們可能進行了私募融資，所以就不需要再通過其他方式募資了。

386

Whatever the reason is, the stock, which everyone expects will fail, goes higher.

無論原因是什麼，那隻所有人都預計會下跌的股票反而越漲越高。

387

And now all of those shorts that have sold heavily into the bid, thinking this thing was going to roll over, now as it starts to pull away,

現在，所有那些之前大量在買盤方向做空、以為這行情會反轉下跌的空頭，眼看著價格開始拉昇，

388

are getting forced to buy back their shares.

正被迫回購他們的股份。

389

And so typically the way these shifts occur, they shift from cold to weak,

通常情況下，這些轉變的發生方式是從冷淡轉向無力。

390

sorry, from weak back to strong with one stock that makes just an exceptional move.

抱歉，從走勢疲軟轉為強勢，只靠一隻走出了異常行情的股票。

391

It ends up going up like 500 or 700% in one day because shorts got stuck, they got stubborn, and they keep adding, thinking the market's been so strong, we've been in control.

最終它會在一天內暴漲500%甚至700%，因為做空者被套牢了，他們固執己見，不斷加倉，以為市場一直很強勢，一切都在他們的掌控之中。

392

And then next thing you know, it's going higher, higher, higher, higher, higher.

然後接下來你就會看到，它越漲越高，越來越高。

393

The problem is often I end up missing that one stock because I don't expect it either.

問題往往在於，我最終會錯過那隻股票，因為我根本沒預料到它會上漲。

394

And the move often ends up happening like later in the afternoon

而且這種搬遷往往會拖到下午晚些時候才開始進行。

395

or even after hours where shorts kind of held it all day long, just kept thinking it was going to roll over and it just kept not.

甚至在盤後時段，空頭一整天都在試圖壓制價格，一直以為行情會反轉下跌，但它就是一直沒有出現這種走勢。

396

And then finally they're covering into the close or into after hours and they're getting squeezed.

最後，等到臨近收盤或進入盤後交易時段時，他們就會遭遇逼空行情。

397

So I typically miss that one.

所以我通常會錯過那一個。

398

However, all traders end up paying really close attention to what were the dynamics of that stock?

然而，所有交易員最終都會非常關注那隻股票的動態走勢。

399

What was the country code?

當時的國家程式碼是什麼？

400

Where was it located?

它當時位於哪裡？

401

What's the sector it's in?

它屬於哪個行業？

402

What was the catalyst?

當時的催化劑是什麼？

403

And they start thinking, where's the next stock that's similar?

然後他們開始思考，下一個類似的股票在哪裡？

404

And that begins a round of sympathy momentum, where you have another stock that pops up that's very similar, same country, same sector.

這就引發了一輪聯動上漲的行情，此時會出現另一隻非常相似的股票，來自同一個國家、同一個行業。

405

Shorts are nervous because they don't want to repeat what just happened on the other one.

做空者現在很緊張，因為他們不想重蹈另一隻股票剛剛發生的覆轍。

406

Longs are aggressive because they don't want to miss a big move.

多頭方態度激進，因為他們不想錯過一波大行情。

407

FOMO has now been ignited.

現在FOMO情緒已經被點燃了。

408

And now you start having a wave of big moves.

現在你開始迎來一波重大變動。

409

And now the point of control has shifted back into the hands of the buyers.

現在，控制權已經重新回到了買方手中。

410

And it'll stay there for a while until you have buyers

它會在那裡存放一段時間，直到你找到買家。

411

that are so confident they'll jump on even the most mundane headlines, which really are not fundamentally material for the company.

它們信心十足，甚至會對最普通的訊息做出反應，而這些訊息實際上對公司而言根本不具備實質性影響。

412

And the stock still goes up 50 or 100%.

而且這隻股票仍然會上漲50%甚至100%。

413

And shorts realize this is ridiculous.

而空頭方意識到這實在太荒謬了。

414

We're going to start shorting these because a lot of them are coming back down anyways.

我們打算開始做空這些資產，因為它們中的很多反正都會回落。

415

Even the companies are selling shares.

就連各家公司也在拋售股票。

416

And the point of control shifts a little bit more subtly where they get sort of weaker

而且控制的平衡點會以一種更微妙的方式發生偏移，在那些地方它們的控制力會逐漸減弱。

417

and weaker and weaker until people give up.

越來越弱，直到人們放棄。

418

The shift from hot to cold is much more subtle than the shift from cold back to hot, typically.

通常情況下，從熱到冷的轉變要比從冷回到熱的轉變微妙得多。

419

It's not always the case.

情況並非總是如此。

420

Sometimes the shift is a little bit subtle going from cold back to hot, but usually it's more of one big stock becomes spark that ignites the next round of momentum.

有時候從冷淡迴歸火熱的轉變會略顯微妙，但通常是某一隻大盤股成為點燃下一輪行情的導火索。

421

So that is a deep dive into the shifts that we are seeing in the market from cold to hot, back from hot to cold.

以上就是對我們所觀察到的市場從冷到熱、又從熱到冷的轉變的深入分析。

422

And right now, we've definitely seen a shift from hot to cold.

而現在，我們確實已經看到了從熱到冷的轉變。

423

It's cooled off and it could stay cold for a few weeks.

天氣已經轉涼了，而且這種寒冷的天氣可能會持續幾週。

424

It could stay cold for maybe just a few days.

寒冷天氣可能只會持續幾天。

425

We don't know.

我們不知道。

426

Ultimately, we don't know how long it'll be before we have that one stock that surprises us.

說到底，我們根本不知道要等多久才會出現那隻讓我們意外的股票。

427

And realistically, the longer it's cold,

而且實際上，寒冷持續的時間越長，

428

the bigger the move will be when that stock does surprise us because shorts will be so confident.

當那隻股票真的出乎我們意料時，它的波動幅度會更大，因為做空者當時會非常自信。

429

The sellers will be in so much control.

賣家將擁有極大的控制權。

430

They won't even think it's possible to have a a move that big.

他們甚至根本不會覺得有可能出現那麼大的行情波動。

431

So you almost have to have all the recent memory of those big moves from June

所以你幾乎得記住六月份那些重大變動的所有近期細節。

432

and July and early August be forgotten in order for the next one to occur.

而七月和八月初的記憶會被遺忘，以便下一次發生。

433

But that also means sustaining a longer period where it's slow.

但這也意味著要維持一段更長的緩慢發展時期。

434

And during those periods, the way I trade is I just focus on trading less, trading with smaller size, getting my base hits, and not overstaying my welcome.

在那些時期，我的交易方式就是專注於減少交易次數，用更小的倉位交易，穩紮穩打，不過度停留。

435

If you want to watch me doing that live every day, check out the link for the two-week trial it's pinned to the top of the comments post in the description and

如果你想每天看我直播做這件事，可以去看看那個兩週試用的連結，它被置頂在簡介裡的評論區頂部。

436

if you want to actually become a full-fledged member well check

如果你真的想成為正式成員，那就好好確認一下。

437

out our labor day sale labor day sales are currently active

我們的勞動節特賣活動正在進行中

438

here at warrior trading with special discounts on our warrior starter

歡迎來到 Warrior Trading，我們的 Warrior Starter 課程正享特別優惠。

439

and warrior pro membership

以及 Warrior Pro 會員資格

440

so i hope you guys check them out you can come over click the join now button

所以我希望大家都去看看，你們可以點進來，點選立即加入的按鈕。

441

and you can see our membership so please check them out

您可以檢視我們的會員資訊，歡迎瞭解。

442

but i'll remind you as always that trading is risky my results are not typical

但我還是要一如既往地提醒你，交易存在風險，我的交易結果並不具有普遍性。

443

and there's no guarantee you'll find success whether you trade on your own you learn from me

無論你是自行交易還是向我學習，都無法保證你一定會獲得成功。

444

so please always practice in a simulator before putting real money on the line

所以在投入真錢之前，請務必先在模擬平臺上進行練習。

下載應用

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AI 發音評分逐句打分

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FOR YOU

本課的詞彙與口語要點

這節 C1 級別的口語課以影片“Here's what's REALLY Happening..”為素材。這段影片共有 444 個句子、5625 個單詞可供跟讀。講話部分時長為 29:52。說話人語速較快，每分鐘約 188 個詞，會出現較多連讀和弱讀。 86% 的單詞屬於英語最常用的 3,000 詞，其餘的詞建議在練習前先學一下。

影片中的重點詞彙

影片中最難的 15 個單詞，附發音和釋義：

單詞	發音	釋義
investor 名詞	/ɪnˈvɛs.tə(ɹ)/	投資者 /投資者, 投資家 /投資家
metric 形容詞	/ˈmɛt.ɹɪk/	公制
seller 名詞	/ˈsɛlɚ/	賣方 /賣方, 賣主 /賣主
trader 名詞	/ˈtɹeɪdɚ/	商人
squeeze 動詞	/skwiːz/	壓榨, 擠壓 /擠壓
rejection 名詞	/ɹɪˈd͡ʒɛkʃən/	拒絕 /拒絕
buyer 名詞	/ˈbaɪ.əɹ/	買主 /買主, 購買人 /購買人
placement 名詞	/ˈpleɪ̯smənt/	放置, 安置
cellar 名詞	/ˈsɛləɹ/	地窖, 地下室
stubborn 形容詞	/ˈstʌbɚn/	頑固 /頑固, 固執 /固執
catalyst 名詞	/ˈkæt.ɪ.lɪst/	觸媒 /觸媒, 催化劑 /催化劑
candle 名詞	/ˈkæn.dəl/	蠟燭 /蠟燭, 蠟 /蠟
broker 名詞	/ˈbɹoʊkɚ/	經紀人 /經紀人, 中間人 /中間人
loser 名詞	/luzɚ/	輸家 /輸家
shelf 名詞	/ʃɛlf/	架子

影片中出現的短語動詞

單詞	釋義
end up 動詞	到達
go up 動詞	上昇 /上升, 上去
come back 動詞	回來 /回來, 返回
back down 動詞	做出讓步 /做出讓步
check out 動詞	退房
pop up 動詞	彈出
go down 動詞	下降, 下去
sell off 動詞	賣掉 /賣掉, 賤賣 /賤賣

值得反覆跟讀的句子

影片中簡短而完整的句子，可以直接用在日常對話裡：

We're now starting a brand new month.
I'll just open that into a new tab.
Let's dive a little bit deeper.
This isn't showing all of my profitability, clearly.
We had, let's see, which other ones were there?

影片中的語法

說話人最常用的結構，並附上影片中的原話：

結構	影片中的用法
現在完成進行時 have/has been + -ing — 以前開始、現在仍在繼續的動作	I've been using · that's been occurring · It's been doing
現在完成時 have/has + 過去分詞 — 過去發生但與現在仍有關聯的事	has been · has shifted · have been
被動語態 be + 過去分詞 — 強調發生了什麼，而不是誰做的	was still set · is also released · being sold
定語從句 who / which + 從句 — 補充說明人或事物	catalyst, which is · TraderView, which is · guys who have

需要注意的發音

說話人用了 145 次縮略和弱讀形式，例如 I'm, don't, they're。請按聽到的簡短形式來說。

“th” 音: nonetheless /ˌnʌnðəˈlɛs/, sympathy /ˈsɪm.pəθ.i/
“sh” 和 “zh” 音: institutional /ˌɪn.stɪˈtju.ʃə.nəl/, rejection /ɹɪˈd͡ʒɛkʃən/, shelf /ʃɛlf/, bullish /ˈbʊlɪʃ/, correction /kəˈɹɛkʃən/
長單詞——注意重音位置: profitability /ˌpɹɑ.fɪ.təˈbɪl.ɪ.ti/, institutional /ˌɪn.stɪˈtju.ʃə.nəl/, momentum /ˌmə(ʊ)ˈmɛntəm/, liquidity /lɪkˈwɪdəti/, correlation /ˌkɔɹ.əˈleɪ.ʃən/

中文母語者容易讀錯的音：

/v/ — 不要讀成 /w/，上齒輕觸下唇: investor /ɪnˈvɛs.tə(ɹ)/, activate /ˈæktɪˌveɪt/, vague /veɪɡ/, verify /ˈvɛɹɪfaɪ/
詞尾子音 — 要讀清楚，後面不要加母音: biotech /ˈbaɪoʊˌtɛk/, metric /ˈmɛt.ɹɪk/, squeeze /skwiːz/, placement /ˈpleɪ̯smənt/, catalyst /ˈkæt.ɪ.lɪst/
/r/ 和 /l/ 的區別: profitability /ˌpɹɑ.fɪ.təˈbɪl.ɪ.ti/, cellar /ˈsɛləɹ/, scroll /skɹoʊl/, correlation /ˌkɔɹ.əˈleɪ.ʃən/, roller /ˈɹoʊlɚ/

如何用這段影片練習

先完整聽一遍影片，不要開口，記下不認識的單詞。
先用 0.75 倍速逐句跟讀，熟練之後再回到正常速度。
錄下自己的聲音並與原聲對比，特別注意 investor, metric, seller 這類單詞。

什麼是跟讀法？

跟讀法 (Shadowing) 是一種有科學依據的語言學習技巧，最初開發用於專業口譯員的培訓，並由多語言者Alexander Arguelles博士普及。這個方法簡單而強大：您在聽英語母語原聲的同時立即大聲重複——就像是一個延遲1-2秒緊跟說話者的影子。與被動聽力或語法練習不同，跟讀法強迫您的大腦和口腔肌肉同時處理並模模擬實的講話模式。研究表明它能顯著提高發音準確性，語調，節奏，連讀，聽力理解和口語流利度——使其成為雅思口語備考和真實英語交流最有效的方法之一。

影子跟讀法: 閱讀完整分步指南 →

跟讀練習: Here's what's REALLY Happening... - 通過影片學習英語口語

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