Pratique du Shadowing: Bill Gates Changes His Mind on AI - Apprendre l'anglais à l'oral avec la vidéo
Création de la leçon...
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You cannot expect an industry to regulate itself.
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That doesn't work.
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I'm Hannah Rosen.
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This is Radio Atlantic.
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In his long career, Bill Gates has been largely a booster of technology, including AI.
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Very recently, he seemed concerned with the risks, but more an optimist on balance.
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But now he's written a memo arguing that the combination of rapid speed of advancement
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and lack of regulation is putting us in a dangerous place for employment and human relationships
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and also more immediate dangers like bioweapons and cyber attacks, which Gates is alarmed that no official entity seems to be guarding against.
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Bill Gates and I talk about what he's seeing and not seeing around AI, and we talk about what exactly he regrets about his interactions with Jeffrey Epstein.
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Here's our conversation.
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So you've been an advocate for technology as a force for good.
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I certainly think of you that way.
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It's Microsoft, your foundation, which rewards innovation.
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And even when you wrote about AI a couple of years ago, you seem to be more emphasizing the exciting possibilities and calling the risks manageable.
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And I would say this week you wrote about AI in a way that's slightly less sanguine than that.
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What changed for you?
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Yeah, I'm very concerned that
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we're not getting a lot of people in the conversation about how to minimize the negative things
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and at the same time how to accelerate the good things.
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The reason that my tone has changed is that starting late last year, as the models particularly clawed at first,
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but now many of the models were very good at coding, their capabilities just keep advancing.
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And so we're crossing the danger thresholds in areas like cyber attacks and bioterrorism.
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And as the reliability goes up, the challenge in the jobs market or even the psychosocial dependency,
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these concerns are very strong with today's models.
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And yet the response I've seen from outside the industry,
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including policymakers, but even academia or society as a whole,
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to really debate and look at what we have today, which is a discussion about voluntary review,
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But it's pretty empty where you have no criteria of what level you're looking for and then what remediation you'd ask for.
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Even common sense things like monitoring the use of models that can make dangerous molecules for bioterror,
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that's not even been put in place.
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And yet years ago, we said when we got to these thresholds, we needed government to do that.
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So it sounds like even you were surprised by the what, by the speed of advancements or by the slowness of response to the advancements or both of those things?
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Both very, very strongly.
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You know, the coding is the thing that I was obsessed with trying to do super well from age 13 to 23.
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And so late last year, where the models start to be as good or in some cases better than humans at coding,
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that was a real threshold for me.
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But then even more recently, as the Gates Foundation is using these tools to look at making new vaccines and drugs and things,
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you know, we see how powerful they are.
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And we even see in the cyber case models sort of
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what you might term being out of control in a surprising way because the reinforcement learning incensed them to succeed,
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even if it means breaking through barriers or conspiring with each other.
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And so people who don't look at that and go, wow, we have a serious problem here.
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But where is the non-industry activity to set those criteria and debate these things?
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My memo has some suggestions on taxes or human reserve
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or restricting the level that kids use it to replace real-world friends.
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But, you know, that's really there to start a broad discussion, not because I, you know,
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I'm saying if you just apply what I'm suggesting, then it's all taken care of.
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Yeah, it sounds like, I mean, in the 50 years of Microsoft, there's been a lot of disruption,
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the Internet, social media particularly, but not necessarily cataclysmic.
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Do you feel like AI is a different scale of thing?
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Yeah, I wouldn't use the word cataclysmic because it's also wonderful.
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It's eventually it provides medical advice and personalized learning and levels of invention unheard of.
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But anyone who analogizes AI as a technology to other technologies is missing that this time is different.
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And saying something is different, there's a very high bar for that,
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but I'm staking whatever reputation I have saying this time is different that something that exceeds human cognition,
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not just in one area like, you know, farming or mathematics,
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but across the board, and then in a few years times will be coupled with fairly low cost,
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quite capable humanoid robotics.
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That is a more profound change to our economy and jobs than anything in my lifetime by a dramatic amount.
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And so the past is kind of there to fool you if you think this technology is similar to other ones,
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some of which I had the privilege to be involved with, the microprocessor, personal computer, internet.
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And even though you have to be careful with those a bit,
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overwhelmingly, those were good technologies.
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And overwhelmingly, that led to net job creation.
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Can you get as specific as you can, but still stay realistic about what worries you?
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What scenarios you've talked to people about or seen as being very possible that we should be all more aware of?
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Well, let me take kind of a grim one, which is bioterrorism.
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You know, I wrote a book called How to Avoid the Next Pandemic.
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And pandemics can emerge in two different ways.
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One is intentionally caused by humans,
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either governments or non-governments, and that's what we call bioterrorism,
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or it can come through just something coming from animals into humans.
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like a very powerful flu has many times in the past.
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And now these tools make it so a non-state act or a non-government,
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particularly if you combine various tools, will be able to do extremely dangerous things.
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And I know very well that the quality of these models
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by the end of this year will be dramatically better than they are today.
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And so I'm, you know, I'm kind of in a state of shock that the notion that the ability to make molecules,
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you know, We're not talking about monitoring that.
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And you can still have free models, but you have to keep them in a place where they are monitored.
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And I think every country, including the U.S and China, should agree that this is beneficial.
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And I don't see that as a meaningful slowdown
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to the innovation in the industry
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or letting them figure out how to get the good stuff which the Gates Foundation is very involved in education,
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health, and agricultural pieces there.
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I want to ask you about some other dangers you write about, like employment and education.
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But first, you must know a lot of the people who are working on AI.
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Why do you think that we, whoever the we is, don't think enough about what are obvious dangers?
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Well, you know, they're obvious if you've lived thinking about AI as this wild thing in our entire life,
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like I have in some of the people in the industry.
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I think there's a great failure to really involve non-industry participants.
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If you really look back at what some of the key industry people have said,
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I give them them a lot of credit for speaking out.
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And it's not just Aria Amadei.
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If you take Sam Altman and other OpenAI people,
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even Elon Musk, who I talked to the least of all these AI leaders,
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they're not hiding the fact that they're concerned.
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In fact, if you go to the origin story of OpenAI, it was was designed with certain safeguards, but those safeguards would only work if there was just one AI company.
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You know, DeepMind talked to Google management about having some safeguards for their technology,
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but we have to deal with these challenges at a time when there's,
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you know, many US companies at the frontier and many Chinese companies at the frontier.
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And that means that just a company doing something unilaterally is no longer like those safeguards were discussed.
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That no longer has any effect.
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And so the lack of dialogue with all parts of society is kind of deafening silence.
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And if you don't anticipate these problems, you could have such a backlash that extreme measures like,
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you know, shut it off or something like that might become the politically popular.
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And yet I still think we can thread the challenge so that we don't have to slow down.
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And yet we minimize the bad and have a net a lot of good.
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We're already seeing that with data centers, that it's just becoming an overwhelming kind of no. Employment is another one I want to ask you about
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that is an immediate fear i remember you once wrote
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that you didn't think the labor disruption would be as profound
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as other periods in history as the disruption is getting closer are you more concerned about
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that well i'm i'm yeah i am extremely concerned about uh
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the labor market effects uh you know within the next two years in the white collar space
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and within the next four years in both the blue and white collar space.
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Just going back to the data center thing, you know, I'm afraid that people who think,
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OK, we got our local data center not to go through may feel like, OK, we stopped AI.
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That's not the case.
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These data centers, whether they show up outside the United States or, you know, in some state that's not as negative or,
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you know, that the economic reward that the companies offer of local employment and taxes and,
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you know, making sure that the way they're doing water and noise and not raising electricity bills is good.
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So I don't think that outlet, you know, that's like saying, OK, we stopped one pipeline and now we've solved climate change.
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It almost takes the energy that should go to what should the tasteful regulations be and pushes it in a pyrrhic direction.
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Back to employment.
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So you are very concerned about that.
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Do you envision a world with more inequality?
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Like it's hard to believe that we'll suddenly value high human touch professions.
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It's just hard to see what the future society is, even though people talk about it idealistically.
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Well, I put forward a concept that I haven't seen anywhere before,
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that we should have some job categories that are human reserved.
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That is, even if the AI with or without robots can do childcare, should we not allow that? allowed that.
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And, you know, there's a lot of things that that would be good,
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either where you're allowing the people in that profession to continue to be paid until retirement,
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or where the long run you're saying in terms of human uniqueness, and humans engaging with each other,
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and just the incredible value of jobs that go way beyond the economics to not have this disruption.
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You know, there are a lot of jobs
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that the only thing holding AI back from taking is that organizing the systems to achieve extreme reliability has been difficult.
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And I see over the next few years, both people who do the implementations and the richness of the models themselves,
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completely eliminating that unreliability barrier.
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And then when you get a cycle that your competitors doing it, then there's pressure on you to match their cost structure,
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even though for society as a whole, when you replace that person,
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the safety net is already underfunded with high deficits.
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So it's not like there's some reserves set aside at this point that can help out there.
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Although when you start to get to specifics about what the we is and what the interventions should be,
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like reserve certain jobs or universal basic income,
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it feels almost incompatible with the way that we've ordered our society or with capitalism.
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Like it just, it feels like it would require a completely different mindset
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and world that I'm not sure people are ready to get their minds around.
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No, we ban child labor.
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You know, we require professional certificates to do jobs.
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I agree that preserving the dynamism of the price discovery system is extremely valuable.
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You don't want to go to, okay, there's this one central thing that makes all the food.
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You want, you know, people saying, okay, I have a Thai restaurant, I have an Indian restaurant.
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And, you know, there's a lot of freedom and innovation that comes out of that.
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And that's why my proposals about the tax system shifting away from taxing labor to taxing capital
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and picking areas where you say, no, the robots are not going to replace all the humans,
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in some cases for a period of time, and in many other cases, never.
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I think that's a valid debate.
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And, you know, if people think that's a bad solution or they don't see where to apply, I think that's interesting because then I'd be dying to hear from them.
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What is their solution?
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Because jobs are very important for social connection and meaning.
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and I don't want one party to be engaged in helping to minimize the challenge of AI.
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I want both.
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They might have different solutions, but I think it should rise to the top of their list.
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The data center thing is getting it there, but in a very, very narrow way.
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Yeah, I think what people do say is then we lose to China.
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I mean, that's the way the argument generally goes.
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Any slowdown, we lose to China.
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It's a legitimate argument because you don't necessarily want China to control the rollout of this technology.
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But let's be careful.
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Do you think China wants bioterrorism?
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Do you think China wants cyber attacks?
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Our lack of a clear view of how we should be careful, and then once we figure that out,
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Yeah, going to them and saying, we'd like you, for the models that are under your control, not to enable these capabilities either.
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Until you've really been serious about those negatives and what the monitoring solution looks like,
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you can't invoke China because all we have is voluntary review with no criteria.
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Of course, if you go to China and say, will you also do voluntary criteria with nothing, nothing, then you can come home and say, oh, they're not willing to do anything.
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Well, that's because you're not doing anything.
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You're not proposing anything that would solve the problem.
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And the vacuum here, you know, which was filled in by complete cheerleaders a little bit, is very scary to me.
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Yeah.
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Yeah.
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Okay.
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There are things that are in everyone's interest if you talk about them that way.
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To limit the bads.
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All of these bads appear in every economy.
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I mean, the Chinese have really banned kids using AI in a lot of ways.
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And people are reluctant to say, maybe, you know, we should look at what they're doing and consider those prohibitions.
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By the way, who are the cheerleaders?
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Well, the U.S government, in its desire to say,
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OK, we're ahead, even under the Biden administration, was involved in making it hard for China to get various chips.
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So we made this geopolitical thing where we were explicitly trying to slow them down.
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Now, you know, that's meant that they've invested in their own chip capacities.
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And, you know, you have different estimates on how quickly they'll be able to replace the chip level capabilities
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that we blocked them from getting access to.
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And the heads of the companies, I imagine, too.
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Well, I am saying that,
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in my view, these company people are being responsible at speaking out about the challenges of these models.
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And, you know, you cannot expect an industry to regulate itself.
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That doesn't work.
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You have to have somebody who's mediating and who says, look, if you don't get serious about this bioterrorism capability, then yes.
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If you refuse to put the monitoring in, then yes, you are not licensed to go forward.
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If you don't let parents see what their kids are doing,
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you know, where those friends that they mentioned don't happen to be real people.
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I have more AI questions, and we haven't yet talked about your philanthropy.
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I'm going to make a quick diversion to the more difficult subject, which is Jeffrey Epstein, because that hangs over a lot of what you do.
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After the Department of Justice released emails earlier this year, there were a lot of headlines that just put your name together.
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From what we gather from the public record, you and your foundation staff interacted with him between 2011 and 2014, just in an effort to raise money for global health.
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And then when you gave testimony to Congress earlier this summer, it sounds like he later learned some things about your personal life, mused in emails about blackmailing you.
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Is that a fair summary?
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Well, he never did blackmail me.
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This thing is, you know, laid out in complete detail in my full day of congressional testimony, which I was, you know,
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very enthused to have an opportunity where we touched on every meeting we had, every piece of email. But you're absolutely right.
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In that January release of emails were things
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that made it clear he was contemplating working with an associate of mine potentially to blackmail me.
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He never did.
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You know, I never paid him anything.
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I didn't change the exit package for the employee that he was doing that with.
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But, you know, it just underscored how foolish I was not to have better judgment, even though my intent was philanthropic.
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There was never any social thing.
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I never went to the island.
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You know, I was never introduced to any women.
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But, you know, I've learned a lot from that.
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And I'm glad that transcript is there
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so people can know exactly month by month what I did do and what I didn't do.
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You said you used the word foolish.
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At the time, you said you knew he had a past sex conviction, but didn't know the details.
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Looking back, do you have a sense about why you didn't look into the details?
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Like, did you make a choice there?
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I think is what I'm asking to overlook his reputation in the aim of achieving a certain goal.
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Well, he definitely had connections with billionaires, a lot of them.
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And, you know, in a sense, you could say he found my weak point
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that by saying he could get tens of billions or 100 billions that would be donated to global health causes, that raised my interest.
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And that was enough for me to spend, you know, a pretty modest number of hours, but enough that, you know,
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it was, you know, a huge mistake.
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You know, he tried to make...
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What was the mistake?
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The mistake was talking to him or overlooking?
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What do you think of as the actual mistake now?
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I thought that him just referring us to people, you know, where I was clear to him he would never get any money, he would never have any role.
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I thought that the fact that he had this past conviction, you know, which at the time I thought he had,
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you know, served the time just like all sorts of ex-convicts
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that the foundation works with and trying to get them back into the labor market.
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I thought the justice system had worked when the, you know, many years after I stopped seeing him in 2014,
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a very impressive reporter in Miami showed that the government justice system had completely failed the victims there.
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And I was not aware of that, But I did know he'd had that one offense and he'd served time for it.
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You know, I didn't think that just using him as a middleman, that we were so reputationally sensitive, that getting literally billions to save lives,
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that would have been okay.
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Now I understand the work we do is massively reputationally sensitive,
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the way we work with governments of all kind and partners of all kind.
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And so, you know, I would never take that kind of risk again.
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And I've learned a lesson and I've been able to go through, you know, in detail everything that happened.
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The Gates Foundation announced plans to open a regional office in Saudi Arabia.
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Some people might consider that morally questionable.
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How do you see that?
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Is that a similar case of sort of you go where the money and the willingness to help is?
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Yeah, I mean, there are people who buy oil from Saudi Arabia.
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There's people who visit Saudi Arabia.
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We did not engage in the period where the U.S government was saying, hey, we're limiting our connections.
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We went along with that.
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But after the leaders in Europe and the U.S were deeply engaged, I did go to Saudi Arabia and say,
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hey, the donors for global health are pulling away and that's causing a lot of harm.
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Would you help me with polio eradication?
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And they made a five-year, $500 million commitment to help fund the polio campaign.
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and they have a relief organization, the King Solomon Relief, that does good work in a lot of places around the world.
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And so in order to liaise with them
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and make sure that $500 million is spent well and the relationships
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that KSR has that are way more powerful with Muslim countries than we as the Gates Foundation have,
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yes, we are among the people who visit Saudi Arabia.
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We don't buy the oil that's, you know, most of the world does that.
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But yeah, we are trying to help kids not get paralyzed.
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And our relationship with Saudi Arabia's emerged as a key part of that.
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Let me end with this, because I feel someone listening to this might be unsatisfied by one thing.
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You know, we talk about regulation, government regulation.
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It feels obviously important and obviously the thing to do.
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Have you ever sensed that we have the infrastructure to regulate, that we have the willpower to regulate, particularly in this administration?
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Like, is this a realistic plan?
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Well, we have a democracy and the idea of minimizing harms from unlicensed drugs or,
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you know, imitating people or fooling old people into spending their money, you know, I still believe the U.S government has the capacity
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to help minimize the harms here and even play a leadership role in a constructive way with other countries around the world.
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You know, I think some would welcome a hey, we're in this together.
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This is mutual problem solving, not not us taking advantage of you.
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And so, you know, you've got to believe that we all care about this.
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We're all, you know, human beings.
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And it is, you know, now is the time.
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If I could have picked the time, I would have picked a much later time.
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But, you know, here we are.
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And, you know, the IQ of the society to figure out these trade-offs, it really isn't engaged.
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You have, you know, graduates who use AI so they know how powerful it is, and they know that the job market of it shifts, it works against them.
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So you're starting to see a little bit of sensitivity in a few areas.
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But, you know, what percentage of economics professors are really looking at this and helping us out with it?
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You know, I think it's like 2%.
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And even many of them, when I meet with them, they don't get that what they are using today is so limited.
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And so, you know, by being in the technology space and historically have been somebody who said, hey, the more technology, the better.
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The fact that now I'm saying only if we're tasteful will we get the goods to outweigh the bads.
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You know, I'm definitely raising a shrill alarm.
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I mean, to the level that, you know, whenever I do get a chance to meet with world leaders,
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you know, since 2008, when I switched over to be full time at the foundation,
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90% of my message is about helping reduce childhood death rates, you know, where we cut them in half.
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And we want to do that again during the 19 years left in the foundation.
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Now, the majority of my bandwidth that I get with world leaders will be about AI.
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And I'm hoping that over the next couple of years, the engagement is so broad and so rich
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that I can go back to taking whatever time I get
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and having it again be 90 percent about global health and malaria and polio.
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not something that brings in my first career experience and having to be sort of a,
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you're not getting it in terms of how profound it is,
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how much it's improving, and the incredible effort is going to be required to restrict these negative effects.
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Did you use the word tasteful?
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That was a word I didn't expect.
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Why tasteful?
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It's good.
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Tasteful seems, you know, restrained.
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Yeah, well, but some of the measures, you know, given the amount of money and,
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you know, the number of people on IQ, in the history of humankind,
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there's never been an area where as much capital or as much total salary where,
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you know, you have hundreds of companies even putting aside the robotics, and they're going full speed ahead.
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And the idea that the balance of how we require the efforts to go into certain safety things,
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it's just not balanced today.
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And even the industry has said, well, what are the regulations?
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Maybe some of those people aren't sincere.
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If we come up with these plans, we'll hear from them.
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But then again, we're trying to make this work as a pro equity factor for not just the United States, but for the entire world.
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So tasteful means more like equitable.
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Yeah.
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Less scary.
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Tasteful.
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No, it's a tiny bit sarcastic to use such a modest
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word for such a given how much is at risk if some of the negative things go unchecked.
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Yeah.
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Well, Bill, thank you so much for making time to do this today.
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Yeah, great to talk to you.
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That's all for today's show.
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This episode of Radio Atlantic was produced by Mike Pissoli, edited by Kevin Townsend.
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It was engineered as original music by Rob Smersiak.
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Claudina Bade is the executive producer of Atlantic Audio, and Andrea Valdez is our managing editor.
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If you like what you saw here, new episodes of Radio Atlantic drop every Monday and Thursday.
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You can subscribe on The Atlantic's YouTube page or Apple or Spotify or wherever it is that you get your podcasts.
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And if you want to support our work and the work of all Atlantic journalists, you can subscribe to The Atlantic at theatlantic.com slash listener.
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Until next time, I'm Hannah Rosen.
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Vocabulaire et conseils d’expression pour cette leçon
Cette vidéo contient 340 phrases et 4566 mots à répéter en shadowing. La partie parlée dure 32:26. Le locuteur parle à un rythme régulier d’environ 141 mots par minute, confortable pour le shadowing. 85 % des mots font partie des 3 000 mots les plus courants en anglais ; le reste mérite d’être vu avant de commencer.
Vocabulaire clé de cette vidéo
15 mots de la vidéo à retenir, avec leur prononciation et leur sens :
| Mot | Prononciation | Sens |
|---|---|---|
| monitor nom | /ˈmɑ.nɪ.tɚ/ | moniteur, monitrice |
| capability nom | /ˌkeɪ.pəˈbɪl.ɪ.ti/ | capacité |
| regulate verbe | /ˈɹɛɡ.jə.leɪt/ | régler |
| minimize verbe | /ˈmɪn.ɪˌmaɪz/ | minimiser |
| disruption nom | /dɪsˈɹʌpʃən/ | interruption, perturbation |
| solve verbe | /sɒlv/ | résoudre, régler |
| regulation nom | /ˌɹɛɡjʊˈleɪʃən/ | règlement, réglementation |
| innovation nom | /ˌɪn.əˈveɪ.ʃən/ | innovation |
| chip nom | /t͡ʃɪp/ | brisure, fragment |
| voluntary adjectif | /ˈvɑ.lənˌt(ɛ)ɹi/ | volontaire |
| profound adjectif | /pɹəˈfaʊnd/ | profond |
| necessarily adverbe | /ˌnɛs.əˈsɛɹ.ə.li/ | absolument, nécessairement |
| reputation nom | /ˌɹɛpjʊˈteɪʃən/ | réputation, renommée |
| sensitive adjectif | /ˈsɛn.sɪt.ɪv/ | sensible |
| economics nom | /ˌiːkəˈnɒmɪks/ | économie |
Les verbes à particule que vous entendrez
| Mot | Sens |
|---|---|
| figure out verbe | cerner |
| go through verbe | traverser |
| break through verbe | percer |
| come up with verbe | inventer, imaginer |
| go up verbe | monter, s'élever |
| help out verbe | dépanner |
| look back verbe | se remémorer |
| show up verbe | apparaître, se montrer se pointer |
La grammaire de cette vidéo
Les structures que le locuteur utilise le plus, avec les mots exacts de la vidéo :
| Structure | Dans la vidéo |
|---|---|
| Phrases conditionnelles if + proposition, will/would + verbe — une condition et son résultat | if you combine various tools, will be · if we're tasteful will we |
| Present perfect have/has + participe passé — une action passée qui compte encore maintenant | has been · you've been · has changed |
| Voix passive be + participe passé — l’accent est mis sur ce qui arrive, pas sur qui le fait | is alarmed · been put · was obsessed |
| Propositions relatives who / which + proposition — une précision sur une personne ou une chose | today, which is · people who don · anyone who analogizes |
Prononciation à surveiller
Le locuteur utilise 93 contractions et formes réduites, comme I'm, don't, we're. Prononcez-les sous leur forme courte, telles que vous les entendez.
- Les sons « th »: thread /ˈθɹɛd/, gather /ˈɡæðɚ/, mathematics /mæθ(.ə)ˈmæt.ɪks/, threshold /ˈθɹɛʃ(h)oʊld/
- Les sons « sh » et « zh »: disruption /dɪsˈɹʌpʃən/, regulation /ˌɹɛɡjʊˈleɪʃən/, innovation /ˌɪn.əˈveɪ.ʃən/, reputation /ˌɹɛpjʊˈteɪʃən/, conviction /kənˈvɪkʃən/
- Mots longs — placez bien l’accent: capability /ˌkeɪ.pəˈbɪl.ɪ.ti/, regulation /ˌɹɛɡjʊˈleɪʃən/, innovation /ˌɪn.əˈveɪ.ʃən/, voluntary /ˈvɑ.lənˌt(ɛ)ɹi/, necessarily /ˌnɛs.əˈsɛɹ.ə.li/
Comment s’entraîner avec cette vidéo
- Écoutez la vidéo en entier une fois sans parler et notez les mots que vous ne connaissez pas.
- Répétez phrase par phrase à vitesse normale, en reprenant chacune jusqu’à ce que votre rythme corresponde à celui du locuteur.
- Enregistrez-vous et comparez avec l’original, en faisant attention à des mots comme monitor, capability, regulate.
Qu'est-ce que la technique du Shadowing ?
Le Shadowing est une technique d'apprentissage des langues fondée sur la science, développée à l'origine pour la formation des interprètes professionnels. Le principe est simple mais puissant : vous écoutez de l'anglais natif et le répétez immédiatement à voix haute — comme une ombre suivant le locuteur avec un décalage de 1 à 2 secondes. Les recherches montrent une amélioration significative de la précision de la prononciation, de l'intonation, du rythme, des liaisons, de la compréhension orale et de la fluidité.