Pratica di Shadowing: The Great A.I. Debate: Should We Fear the Digital Revolution? [2015] | Intelligence Squared - Impara a parlare inglese con i video
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So I've got some good and bad news
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and since we're in England we'll start with the good news because we always need to end with the bad news.
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The good news from your point of view and of course I'm arguing
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that we should be scared but there's one thing we shouldn't be scared of.
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We don't need to fear that in 20 or 30
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or even 50 years we will become as human beings indistinguishable
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from computers in other words in 50 years we could all
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be here it could be like a science fiction movie
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and we won't know whether you're sitting next to a computer
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or not so that's the good news you don't have to worry about singularity
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but that doesn't mean we should not be fearful of robots
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that doesn't mean that we have a lot to be scared about just
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because we're not about to become indistinguishable from robots doesn't mean they're about to take away our livelihood
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and I'm guessing that many of you are lawyers
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or doctors journalists people trained in a field you probably went
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to university you spent years acquiring your intelligence your skill your intellect
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and you sell
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that skill as a teacher as a doctor as an accountant
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as a lawyer your value in the economy is based on that expertise
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and it is you I'm afraid who have the most to fear from this great revolution the digital revolution
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which one set of economists call our second machine age
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because this is as profound as earth shaking as culturally socially
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and above all else economically profound as the first Industrial Revolution of the 19th century.
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What we're on the brink of is a world of increasingly intense, sophisticated, artificial intelligence.
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In Silicon Valley, where I'm from, we call it the machine learning revolution.
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It's the revolution of algorithms, not the traditional science fiction, old -fashioned HG Wells notion,
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Doctor Who, of the robot trundling along the street, the Dalek get
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that image out of your mind think of the algorithm think
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of the self -driving car think of Google think of these incredible new technologies
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which are coming out of Silicon Valley
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which are essentially replacing human labor skilled human labor
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because here's the paradox it's really hard for computers to replicate
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what seems to us to be simple tasks simple tasks like
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doing the garden the washing up cooking cutting someone's hair
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but on the other hand
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and here is the dark scary horrific element to the new
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world we're about to enter it's not difficult to do what seems to us at least to be the difficult things.
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The bad news, and this is really bad news for most of you, and especially for your kids because they are trying to follow in your footsteps,
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is that this world is about to be swept away by the digital revolution.
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Machines will learn how to diagnose diseases.
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What does that say for all doctors around the world?
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We already have software now that grades essays.
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What becomes of school teachers, what becomes of university teachers.
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Two researchers at Oxford University have argued
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that over the next 10 years 47 % of our jobs will become irrelevant
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and those 47 % I'm afraid for you guys are your kind of jobs.
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And it's not just skilled labor, it's not just the professional class, it's not just those people who have been fortunate
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or unfortunate enough to go to university we have a large
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audience a television audience from the developing world these are people
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who are embracing education who see it as a way out
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of poverty i'm afraid the news is really troubling for them
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because they missed the bus development which was always taken for granted no longer will happen.
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And we have these increasing inequalities in Silicon Valley because all the wealth is going to the platform companies.
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All the wealth is going to companies like Amazon and Google
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and the other companies that have harnessed this technology for their own benefit.
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What we're seeing is a hollowing out of the middle class,
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a hollowing out of the kind of jobs that you guys have depended on and a replacement by the algorithm,
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by the machine, and by a tiny group of people who own and control that machine.
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That's the reason, I'm afraid, why you should be afraid, very afraid.
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Thank you.
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Thank you very much.
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So our second speaker is speaking against the motion, Walter Isaacson.
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And Walter became famous for his internationally acclaimed book on the life of Steve Jobs,
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and he gained unprecedented access to Steve Jobs in the last months of his life.
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He's also president and CEO of the Aspen Institute in Washington
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and a former chairman and CEO of CNN and the managing editor of Time magazine.
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How do you fit it all in?
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Thank you for making the time for us today.
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Your time starts when you get to the lectern.
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Thank you.
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Thank you very much to have good news for you
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and good news the good news is you don't have to be afraid
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and the other piece of good news is there's no bad
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news in this the future is really going to be cool since my
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since my distinguished opponent mr keen started with the industrial revolution and said
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that this new revolution would be as disruptive as the industrial revolution let me begin by reminding you
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that the industrial revolution wasn't all that bad
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and at the end of it we had more jobs not
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fewer jobs technology can indeed be disruptive it can disrupt certain jobs as mr keen has said
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but it always has and i submit always will produce more jobs because it produces more wealth more personal income,
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more per capita wealth, and thus more things that we can make and buy.
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Every succeeding generation has had a new wave of worry, dire warnings that jobs are being threatened.
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But in each one of these cases, they turned out to be wrong.
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I was at Time magazine i went back to look 50
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years ago 50 years ago to this date almost time magazine did a cover
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just like this just like the uh line
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that we're looking at it said the robots are coming automation
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will take your job it quoted a rather famous um economic historian robert holborn
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or most of you have heard of him he says the new technology is threatening a whole new group of skills.
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Sounded just like Mr. Keene.
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He said the calculating, the remembering, the comparing, the okaying skills,
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the preserve of the office worker will go away and machines will invade society to make that type of human labor redundant.
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Well guess what?
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It's been 50 years and since then, soon after he wrote that, we had the greatest leaps of technology you can imagine.
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The The internet, the personal computer, and the microprocessor all come into play, but nobody has been rendered redundant.
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There's more jobs and more types of jobs now than there were 50 years ago.
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As Marc Andreassen, the person who invented the web browser,
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said, just as most of us today have jobs that weren't invented 100 years ago, the same will be true 100 years from now.
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Let me give some examples.
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There's the app economy.
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It began in 2008
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when Steve Jobs was convinced by other members of his management
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team to allow outsiders to create apps for the iPhone and then the iPad.
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The app store alone since then has created 627 ,000 jobs.
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The app economy last year was $100 billion, far surpassing the film industry.
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This is an industry that did not exist seven years ago.
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Other advances in technology have helped facilitate new forms of work, such as the sharing economy, where people both here, New York,
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New Orleans, can drive cars, be part of Uber, be part of Airbnb, be part of Lyft.
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Likewise, online marketplaces such as Amazon and eBay have enabled the rise of artisans,
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makers, the type of people that existed in the pre -industrial age, people who had creative instincts and then could have connections to customers around the world.
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If you create a book or a song now, you have new ways to publish, as Pippa did with her own book, new ways to distribute.
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If you dream up a new specialty, this world allows you to find customers and provide a service,
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just as if you were an artisan or a service maker in the pre -industrial revolution.
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It even helps long -established companies find markets all over the globe.
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There's a more fundamental shift going on in the economy that's also good.
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We're creating an on -demand or on -tap economy.
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If you need a housekeeper or a handyman, you don't have to go to a particular firm to get it.
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It can be done on tap.
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If new technologies reduce the total number of jobs, we'd all be out of work now.
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And I doubt that Mr. Keene, nor I, nor you, can guess what wondrous jobs technology will bring to our great -grandchildren.
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Thank you.
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Thank you very much indeed, Walter.
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Our second speaker for the motion is economist George Magnus.
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After a long career in finance in the City of London, George has turned to writing, and he's written The Age of Aging,
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a study of how demographics are changing the world, economy, and social systems.
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So, George, please make your way to the lectern and tell us what you think.
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Thank you very much.
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So, we're going to talk economics now, okay?
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Not populism.
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So what I'd like to put to you this evening is
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that these digital and robotic technologies constitute a very powerful economic threat to our livelihoods because of its effect on jobs,
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on income distribution, and because they demand that we focus on coping mechanisms that we do not yet have.
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now our opponents in this debate
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and you've already heard the first will try to convince you
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that because mankind has always adapted to new technologies historically we shouldn't fear the robotic revolution
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but this time as they say it really is different
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and I'm going to tell you why
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so just over 200 years ago 64 men went on trial
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in York these Luddites they went on a rampage They burned mills and machinery and so on, but their campaign, as we know, was myopic because the Industrial Revolution,
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or the first Industrial Revolution, did leave us all better off.
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What we did is we harnessed power, and that exposed the limits of human brawn.
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But it was also complementary to human endeavour.
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This is the key point.
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It allowed us to blend men and machines in ways which boosted employment,
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growth, income, and sustained a rising and prosperous middle class.
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The modern technological revolution is different.
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It's exposing the limits not of human brawn, but of human brain.
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And instead of being complementary, modern technology is displacing us.
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Capital is being substituted more and more for labour, threatening jobs, living standards and, as we know from contemporary political debate,
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the fabric of the middle class.
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Not all jobs, of course, are at risk, as you've already heard.
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Machines are not sufficiently dexterous to do all kinds of manual work
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and lots of human cognitive and judgmental skills have not been replicated by machines and may not.
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But they've already been doing routine -based or rule -based jobs on the factory floor and in offices for some time.
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Since 2010, the number of low -paying and high -paying jobs has gone up, but the number of middle -level jobs,
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middle -wage -paying jobs, has stagnated or dropped in a pattern
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that is replicated across the whole of Europe in the United States and indeed in some emerging countries, notably in China and India.
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Successful capitalism needs us to be fully engaged, not just as gadgets savoring consumers, which we all are, but also as producers.
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In other words, we need to have stable, productive, high levels of employment, which is what robotics is undermining.
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And because capitalism rewards scarcity, and because the robotics revolution is generating productivity gains that are benefiting a limited number of people,
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The principal rewards of modern technology are accruing to the owners of capital, not the owners of labor in the main.
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Think about the three biggest firms in Silicon Valley.
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They have 137 ,000 people, and these three companies have a market capitalization, in other words,
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they're worth $1 .2 trillion dollars now just cast your mind
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back 25 years to 1990 the three biggest companies in detroit had 10 times as many workers 1 .2 million
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and their combined market value was a mere $36 billion.
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This fundamental change in the relationship between capital
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and labor is also illustrated by what we see in lots
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of surveys about the rising share of profits in national income and the declining share of wages.
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Because as economic inequality rises, so political inequality rises.
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And those that benefit from more political power obviously seek changes
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which further their own economic advantage
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and you could easily end up without coping mechanisms at a very kind of dystopian political future.
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I would remind you of the quip from Lord Keynes the famous British economist who quipped
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that in the long run we're all dead by which he meant
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that the economists focus on the long -run equilibrium was a waste of time because economic circumstances affect us now next year,
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in the next few years, not at some vague point in the unmeasurable future.
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And that's really what is important and brings me to my final point, which is that we need to think about this really seriously and try to develop coping mechanisms.
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There could be many.
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Better education, better training, improved access to capital, job protection schemes for certain occupations,
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high minimum wage, direct transfers, labor -intensive construction, taxation of capital to help displaced workers and so on.
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I'm not commending, ladies and gentlemen, any particular coping mechanism to you tonight,
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merely pointing out that we have few and need many as the robotics revolution evolves.
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Vocabolario e note di pronuncia per questa lezione
Questa lezione di conversazione si basa sul video “The Great A.I. Debate: Should We Fear the Digital Revolution?”. Questo video contiene 183 frasi e 2350 parole da ripetere con lo shadowing. Il parlato dura 16:37. Chi parla mantiene un ritmo costante di circa 141 parole al minuto, comodo per lo shadowing. Il 84% delle parole rientra nelle 3.000 più comuni dell’inglese; conviene studiare le altre prima di iniziare.
Vocaboli chiave di questo video
15 parole del video che vale la pena imparare, con pronuncia e significato:
| Parola | Pronuncia | Significato |
|---|---|---|
| skill sostantivo | /skɪl/ | abilità, capacità |
| mechanism sostantivo | /ˈmɛk.ə.nɪ.zəm/ | meccanismo |
| robot sostantivo | /ˈɹoʊ.bɑt/ | robot |
| economist sostantivo | /iˈkɑ.nə.mɪst/ | economista |
| wage sostantivo | /weɪd͡ʒ/ | salario, paga |
| algorithm sostantivo | /ˈælɡəɹɪðm̩/ | algoritmo |
| threaten verbo | /ˈθɹɛt.n̩/ | minacciare, impaurire |
| inequality sostantivo | /ˌɪn.ɪˈkwɑ.lɪ.ti/ | disuguaglianza |
| replicate verbo | /ˈɹɛplɪkeɪt/ | replicare |
| robotics sostantivo | /ɹoʊˈbɑ.tɪks/ | robotica |
| argue verbo | /ˈɑɹ.ɡju/ | discutere, dibattere |
| fiction sostantivo | /ˈfɪkʃən/ | finzione |
| remind verbo | /ɹəˈmaɪnd/ | ricordare |
| fundamental aggettivo | /ˌfʌn.dəˈmɛn.təl/ | fondamentale |
| reward sostantivo | /ɹɪˈwɔɹd/ | ricompensa |
I phrasal verb che sentirai
| Parola | Pronuncia | Significato |
|---|---|---|
| end up verbo | andare a finire, finire | |
| go away verbo | partire, andarsene | |
| go up verbo | salire | |
| point out verbo | additare | |
| sweep away verbo | spazzare via | |
| take away verbo | /ˌteɪk əˈweɪ/ | togliere |
La grammatica di questo video
Le strutture che chi parla usa di più, con le parole esatte del video:
| Struttura | Nel video |
|---|---|
| Present perfect have/has + participio passato — un’azione passata che conta ancora adesso | have argued · have been · have harnessed |
| Forma passiva be + participio passato — conta ciò che accade, non chi lo fa | is based · be swept · was always taken |
| Frasi relative who / which + frase — un’informazione in più su una persona o una cosa | people who have · development which was · people who own |
Pronuncia a cui fare attenzione
Chi parla usa 40 contrazioni e forme ridotte, come I'm, we're, don't. Pronunciale nella forma breve, così come le senti.
- I suoni “th”: algorithm /ˈælɡəɹɪðm̩/, threaten /ˈθɹɛt.n̩/
- I suoni “sh” e “zh”: fiction /ˈfɪkʃən/, wash /wɑʃ/, essentially /ɪˈsɛnʃəli/, shake /ˈʃeɪk/, artificial /ˌɑː.tɪˈfɪʃ.əl/
- Parole lunghe — attenzione all’accento: mechanism /ˈmɛk.ə.nɪ.zəm/, economist /iˈkɑ.nə.mɪst/, inequality /ˌɪn.ɪˈkwɑ.lɪ.ti/, fundamental /ˌfʌn.dəˈmɛn.təl/, capitalism /ˈkæp.ə.təlˌɪzm̩/
I suoni difficili per chi parla italiano:
- /h/ — va soffiata, non è muta: hollow /ˈhɑloʊ/, harness /ˈhɑɹ.nəs/, historically /hɪˈstɔɹɪkli/, historian /hɪˈstɔɹi.ən/, horrific /həˈɹɪfɪk/
- Consonante finale — senza aggiungere una vocale dopo: robot /ˈɹoʊ.bɑt/, economist /iˈkɑ.nə.mɪst/, wage /weɪd͡ʒ/, replicate /ˈɹɛplɪkeɪt/, robotics /ɹoʊˈbɑ.tɪks/
- /æ/ — più aperta della “e”: algorithm /ˈælɡəɹɪðm̩/, capitalism /ˈkæp.ə.təlˌɪzm̩/, manual /ˈmæn.j(u)əl/, fabric /ˈfæb.ɹɪk/, adapt /əˈdæpt/
Come esercitarsi con questo video
- Ascolta tutto il video una volta senza parlare e annota le parole che non conosci.
- Fai shadowing frase per frase a velocità normale, ripetendo ognuna finché il tuo ritmo coincide con quello di chi parla.
- Registrati e confronta con l’originale, facendo attenzione a parole come skill, mechanism, robot.
Cos'è la tecnica dello Shadowing?
Shadowing è una tecnica di apprendimento delle lingue supportata da studi scientifici, originariamente sviluppata per la formazione dei traduttori professionisti e resa popolare dal poliglotta Dr. Alexander Arguelles. Il metodo è semplice ma potente: ascolti un audio in inglese di madrelingua e lo ripeti immediatamente ad alta voce — come un'ombra che segue il parlante con un ritardo di solo 1–2 secondi. A differenza dell'ascolto passivo o degli esercizi di grammatica, lo shadowing costringe il tuo cervello e i muscoli della bocca a elaborare e riprodurre simultaneamente i modelli di discorso reale. La ricerca dimostra che migliora significativamente la precisione della pronuncia, l'intonazione, il ritmo, il discorso connesso, la comprensione dell'ascolto e la fluidità del parlato — rendendolo uno dei metodi più efficaci per la preparazione alla prova di speaking dell'IELTS e per la comunicazione reale in inglese.