Pratique du Shadowing: The Great A.I. Debate: Should We Fear the Digital Revolution? [2015] | Intelligence Squared - Apprendre l'anglais à l'oral avec la vidéo
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183 phrases
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So I've got some good and bad news
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and since we're in England we'll start with the good news because we always need to end with the bad news.
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The good news from your point of view and of course I'm arguing
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that we should be scared but there's one thing we shouldn't be scared of.
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We don't need to fear that in 20 or 30
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or even 50 years we will become as human beings indistinguishable
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from computers in other words in 50 years we could all
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be here it could be like a science fiction movie
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and we won't know whether you're sitting next to a computer
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or not so that's the good news you don't have to worry about singularity
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but that doesn't mean we should not be fearful of robots
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that doesn't mean that we have a lot to be scared about just
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because we're not about to become indistinguishable from robots doesn't mean they're about to take away our livelihood
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and I'm guessing that many of you are lawyers
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or doctors journalists people trained in a field you probably went
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to university you spent years acquiring your intelligence your skill your intellect
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and you sell
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that skill as a teacher as a doctor as an accountant
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as a lawyer your value in the economy is based on that expertise
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and it is you I'm afraid who have the most to fear from this great revolution the digital revolution
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which one set of economists call our second machine age
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because this is as profound as earth shaking as culturally socially
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and above all else economically profound as the first Industrial Revolution of the 19th century.
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What we're on the brink of is a world of increasingly intense, sophisticated, artificial intelligence.
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In Silicon Valley, where I'm from, we call it the machine learning revolution.
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It's the revolution of algorithms, not the traditional science fiction, old -fashioned HG Wells notion,
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Doctor Who, of the robot trundling along the street, the Dalek get
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that image out of your mind think of the algorithm think
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of the self -driving car think of Google think of these incredible new technologies
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which are coming out of Silicon Valley
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which are essentially replacing human labor skilled human labor
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because here's the paradox it's really hard for computers to replicate
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what seems to us to be simple tasks simple tasks like
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doing the garden the washing up cooking cutting someone's hair
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but on the other hand
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and here is the dark scary horrific element to the new
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world we're about to enter it's not difficult to do what seems to us at least to be the difficult things.
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The bad news, and this is really bad news for most of you, and especially for your kids because they are trying to follow in your footsteps,
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is that this world is about to be swept away by the digital revolution.
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Machines will learn how to diagnose diseases.
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What does that say for all doctors around the world?
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We already have software now that grades essays.
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What becomes of school teachers, what becomes of university teachers.
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Two researchers at Oxford University have argued
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that over the next 10 years 47 % of our jobs will become irrelevant
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and those 47 % I'm afraid for you guys are your kind of jobs.
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And it's not just skilled labor, it's not just the professional class, it's not just those people who have been fortunate
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or unfortunate enough to go to university we have a large
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audience a television audience from the developing world these are people
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who are embracing education who see it as a way out
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of poverty i'm afraid the news is really troubling for them
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because they missed the bus development which was always taken for granted no longer will happen.
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And we have these increasing inequalities in Silicon Valley because all the wealth is going to the platform companies.
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All the wealth is going to companies like Amazon and Google
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and the other companies that have harnessed this technology for their own benefit.
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What we're seeing is a hollowing out of the middle class,
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a hollowing out of the kind of jobs that you guys have depended on and a replacement by the algorithm,
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by the machine, and by a tiny group of people who own and control that machine.
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That's the reason, I'm afraid, why you should be afraid, very afraid.
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Thank you.
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Thank you very much.
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So our second speaker is speaking against the motion, Walter Isaacson.
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And Walter became famous for his internationally acclaimed book on the life of Steve Jobs,
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and he gained unprecedented access to Steve Jobs in the last months of his life.
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He's also president and CEO of the Aspen Institute in Washington
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and a former chairman and CEO of CNN and the managing editor of Time magazine.
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How do you fit it all in?
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Thank you for making the time for us today.
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Your time starts when you get to the lectern.
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Thank you.
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Thank you very much to have good news for you
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and good news the good news is you don't have to be afraid
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and the other piece of good news is there's no bad
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news in this the future is really going to be cool since my
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since my distinguished opponent mr keen started with the industrial revolution and said
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that this new revolution would be as disruptive as the industrial revolution let me begin by reminding you
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that the industrial revolution wasn't all that bad
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and at the end of it we had more jobs not
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fewer jobs technology can indeed be disruptive it can disrupt certain jobs as mr keen has said
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but it always has and i submit always will produce more jobs because it produces more wealth more personal income,
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more per capita wealth, and thus more things that we can make and buy.
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Every succeeding generation has had a new wave of worry, dire warnings that jobs are being threatened.
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But in each one of these cases, they turned out to be wrong.
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I was at Time magazine i went back to look 50
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years ago 50 years ago to this date almost time magazine did a cover
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just like this just like the uh line
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that we're looking at it said the robots are coming automation
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will take your job it quoted a rather famous um economic historian robert holborn
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or most of you have heard of him he says the new technology is threatening a whole new group of skills.
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Sounded just like Mr. Keene.
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He said the calculating, the remembering, the comparing, the okaying skills,
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the preserve of the office worker will go away and machines will invade society to make that type of human labor redundant.
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Well guess what?
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It's been 50 years and since then, soon after he wrote that, we had the greatest leaps of technology you can imagine.
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The The internet, the personal computer, and the microprocessor all come into play, but nobody has been rendered redundant.
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There's more jobs and more types of jobs now than there were 50 years ago.
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As Marc Andreassen, the person who invented the web browser,
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said, just as most of us today have jobs that weren't invented 100 years ago, the same will be true 100 years from now.
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Let me give some examples.
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There's the app economy.
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It began in 2008
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when Steve Jobs was convinced by other members of his management
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team to allow outsiders to create apps for the iPhone and then the iPad.
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The app store alone since then has created 627 ,000 jobs.
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The app economy last year was $100 billion, far surpassing the film industry.
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This is an industry that did not exist seven years ago.
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Other advances in technology have helped facilitate new forms of work, such as the sharing economy, where people both here, New York,
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New Orleans, can drive cars, be part of Uber, be part of Airbnb, be part of Lyft.
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Likewise, online marketplaces such as Amazon and eBay have enabled the rise of artisans,
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makers, the type of people that existed in the pre -industrial age, people who had creative instincts and then could have connections to customers around the world.
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If you create a book or a song now, you have new ways to publish, as Pippa did with her own book, new ways to distribute.
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If you dream up a new specialty, this world allows you to find customers and provide a service,
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just as if you were an artisan or a service maker in the pre -industrial revolution.
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It even helps long -established companies find markets all over the globe.
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There's a more fundamental shift going on in the economy that's also good.
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We're creating an on -demand or on -tap economy.
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If you need a housekeeper or a handyman, you don't have to go to a particular firm to get it.
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It can be done on tap.
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If new technologies reduce the total number of jobs, we'd all be out of work now.
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And I doubt that Mr. Keene, nor I, nor you, can guess what wondrous jobs technology will bring to our great -grandchildren.
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Thank you.
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Thank you very much indeed, Walter.
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Our second speaker for the motion is economist George Magnus.
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After a long career in finance in the City of London, George has turned to writing, and he's written The Age of Aging,
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a study of how demographics are changing the world, economy, and social systems.
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So, George, please make your way to the lectern and tell us what you think.
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Thank you very much.
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So, we're going to talk economics now, okay?
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Not populism.
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So what I'd like to put to you this evening is
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that these digital and robotic technologies constitute a very powerful economic threat to our livelihoods because of its effect on jobs,
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on income distribution, and because they demand that we focus on coping mechanisms that we do not yet have.
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now our opponents in this debate
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and you've already heard the first will try to convince you
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that because mankind has always adapted to new technologies historically we shouldn't fear the robotic revolution
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but this time as they say it really is different
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and I'm going to tell you why
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so just over 200 years ago 64 men went on trial
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in York these Luddites they went on a rampage They burned mills and machinery and so on, but their campaign, as we know, was myopic because the Industrial Revolution,
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or the first Industrial Revolution, did leave us all better off.
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What we did is we harnessed power, and that exposed the limits of human brawn.
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But it was also complementary to human endeavour.
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This is the key point.
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It allowed us to blend men and machines in ways which boosted employment,
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growth, income, and sustained a rising and prosperous middle class.
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The modern technological revolution is different.
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It's exposing the limits not of human brawn, but of human brain.
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And instead of being complementary, modern technology is displacing us.
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Capital is being substituted more and more for labour, threatening jobs, living standards and, as we know from contemporary political debate,
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the fabric of the middle class.
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Not all jobs, of course, are at risk, as you've already heard.
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Machines are not sufficiently dexterous to do all kinds of manual work
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and lots of human cognitive and judgmental skills have not been replicated by machines and may not.
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But they've already been doing routine -based or rule -based jobs on the factory floor and in offices for some time.
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Since 2010, the number of low -paying and high -paying jobs has gone up, but the number of middle -level jobs,
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middle -wage -paying jobs, has stagnated or dropped in a pattern
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that is replicated across the whole of Europe in the United States and indeed in some emerging countries, notably in China and India.
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Successful capitalism needs us to be fully engaged, not just as gadgets savoring consumers, which we all are, but also as producers.
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In other words, we need to have stable, productive, high levels of employment, which is what robotics is undermining.
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And because capitalism rewards scarcity, and because the robotics revolution is generating productivity gains that are benefiting a limited number of people,
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The principal rewards of modern technology are accruing to the owners of capital, not the owners of labor in the main.
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Think about the three biggest firms in Silicon Valley.
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They have 137 ,000 people, and these three companies have a market capitalization, in other words,
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they're worth $1 .2 trillion dollars now just cast your mind
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back 25 years to 1990 the three biggest companies in detroit had 10 times as many workers 1 .2 million
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and their combined market value was a mere $36 billion.
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This fundamental change in the relationship between capital
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and labor is also illustrated by what we see in lots
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of surveys about the rising share of profits in national income and the declining share of wages.
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Because as economic inequality rises, so political inequality rises.
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And those that benefit from more political power obviously seek changes
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which further their own economic advantage
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and you could easily end up without coping mechanisms at a very kind of dystopian political future.
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I would remind you of the quip from Lord Keynes the famous British economist who quipped
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that in the long run we're all dead by which he meant
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that the economists focus on the long -run equilibrium was a waste of time because economic circumstances affect us now next year,
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in the next few years, not at some vague point in the unmeasurable future.
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And that's really what is important and brings me to my final point, which is that we need to think about this really seriously and try to develop coping mechanisms.
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There could be many.
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Better education, better training, improved access to capital, job protection schemes for certain occupations,
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high minimum wage, direct transfers, labor -intensive construction, taxation of capital to help displaced workers and so on.
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I'm not commending, ladies and gentlemen, any particular coping mechanism to you tonight,
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merely pointing out that we have few and need many as the robotics revolution evolves.
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Vocabulaire et conseils d’expression pour cette leçon
Cette leçon d’expression orale s’appuie sur la vidéo « The Great A.I. Debate: Should We Fear the Digital Revolution? ». Cette vidéo contient 183 phrases et 2350 mots à répéter en shadowing. La partie parlée dure 16:37. Le locuteur parle à un rythme régulier d’environ 141 mots par minute, confortable pour le shadowing. 84 % des mots font partie des 3 000 mots les plus courants en anglais ; le reste mérite d’être vu avant de commencer.
Vocabulaire clé de cette vidéo
15 mots de la vidéo à retenir, avec leur prononciation et leur sens :
| Mot | Prononciation | Sens |
|---|---|---|
| skill nom | /skɪl/ | habileté, compétence |
| mechanism nom | /ˈmɛk.ə.nɪ.zəm/ | mécanisme |
| robot nom | /ˈɹoʊ.bɑt/ | robot |
| economist nom | /iˈkɑ.nə.mɪst/ | économiste |
| wage nom | /weɪd͡ʒ/ | salaire |
| algorithm nom | /ˈælɡəɹɪðm̩/ | algorithme |
| threaten verbe | /ˈθɹɛt.n̩/ | menacer |
| inequality nom | /ˌɪn.ɪˈkwɑ.lɪ.ti/ | inégalité |
| replicate verbe | /ˈɹɛplɪkeɪt/ | répliquer |
| robotics nom | /ɹoʊˈbɑ.tɪks/ | robotique |
| argue verbe | /ˈɑɹ.ɡju/ | affirmer, débattre |
| fiction nom | /ˈfɪkʃən/ | fiction, belles-lettres |
| remind verbe | /ɹəˈmaɪnd/ | rappeler à |
| fundamental adjectif | /ˌfʌn.dəˈmɛn.təl/ | fondamental |
| reward nom | /ɹɪˈwɔɹd/ | récompense, salaire |
Les verbes à particule que vous entendrez
| Mot | Prononciation | Sens |
|---|---|---|
| end up verbe | se terminer, se finir | |
| go away verbe | partir, s'en aller | |
| go up verbe | monter, s'élever | |
| point out verbe | pointer | |
| sweep away verbe | balayer | |
| take away verbe | /ˌteɪk əˈweɪ/ | retirer |
| wash up verbe | se laver, se laver les mains |
La grammaire de cette vidéo
Les structures que le locuteur utilise le plus, avec les mots exacts de la vidéo :
| Structure | Dans la vidéo |
|---|---|
| Present perfect have/has + participe passé — une action passée qui compte encore maintenant | have argued · have been · have harnessed |
| Voix passive be + participe passé — l’accent est mis sur ce qui arrive, pas sur qui le fait | is based · be swept · was always taken |
| Propositions relatives who / which + proposition — une précision sur une personne ou une chose | people who have · development which was · people who own |
Prononciation à surveiller
Le locuteur utilise 40 contractions et formes réduites, comme I'm, we're, don't. Prononcez-les sous leur forme courte, telles que vous les entendez.
- Les sons « th »: algorithm /ˈælɡəɹɪðm̩/, threaten /ˈθɹɛt.n̩/
- Les sons « sh » et « zh »: fiction /ˈfɪkʃən/, wash /wɑʃ/, essentially /ɪˈsɛnʃəli/, shake /ˈʃeɪk/, artificial /ˌɑː.tɪˈfɪʃ.əl/
- Mots longs — placez bien l’accent: mechanism /ˈmɛk.ə.nɪ.zəm/, economist /iˈkɑ.nə.mɪst/, inequality /ˌɪn.ɪˈkwɑ.lɪ.ti/, fundamental /ˌfʌn.dəˈmɛn.təl/, capitalism /ˈkæp.ə.təlˌɪzm̩/
Les sons difficiles pour les francophones :
- /h/ — il se souffle, il n’est pas muet: hollow /ˈhɑloʊ/, harness /ˈhɑɹ.nəs/, historically /hɪˈstɔɹɪkli/, historian /hɪˈstɔɹi.ən/, horrific /həˈɹɪfɪk/
- /tʃ/ et /dʒ/ — à ne pas adoucir en « ch » et « j »: wage /weɪd͡ʒ/, journalist /ˈd͡ʒɝnəlɪst/, generate /ˈd͡ʒɛn.ə.ɹeɪt/, gentleman /ˈd͡ʒɛn.təl.mən/, unfortunate /ʌnˈfɔː.t͡ʃə.nɪt/
- /r/ anglais — langue recourbée, sans frotter la gorge: robot /ˈɹoʊ.bɑt/, algorithm /ˈælɡəɹɪðm̩/, threaten /ˈθɹɛt.n̩/, replicate /ˈɹɛplɪkeɪt/, robotics /ɹoʊˈbɑ.tɪks/
Comment s’entraîner avec cette vidéo
- Écoutez la vidéo en entier une fois sans parler et notez les mots que vous ne connaissez pas.
- Répétez phrase par phrase à vitesse normale, en reprenant chacune jusqu’à ce que votre rythme corresponde à celui du locuteur.
- Enregistrez-vous et comparez avec l’original, en faisant attention à des mots comme skill, mechanism, robot.
Qu'est-ce que la technique du Shadowing ?
Le Shadowing est une technique d'apprentissage des langues fondée sur la science, développée à l'origine pour la formation des interprètes professionnels. Le principe est simple mais puissant : vous écoutez de l'anglais natif et le répétez immédiatement à voix haute — comme une ombre suivant le locuteur avec un décalage de 1 à 2 secondes. Les recherches montrent une amélioration significative de la précision de la prononciation, de l'intonation, du rythme, des liaisons, de la compréhension orale et de la fluidité.