Shadowing Practice: Grade 11: Conditional Probability - Learn English Speaking with Video
Les maken...
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probability is just about figuring out how likely something is to happen if you flip a coin there are
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two possible outcomes heads or tails each one has a one out of two chance so the probability of getting
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heads is one divided by two if you roll a dice and want a three you have one chance out
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of six so probability is always a number between zero and one where zero means impossible and
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one means it's guaranteed to happen this is a simple probability now comes the fun part called
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conditional probability imagine you have a bag with five red balls and five blue balls you close your eyes and
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pick one ball and it turns out to be red what was the probability of finding this red ball yes it's simple
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answer is five out of ten or one half because we have five red balls and five blue balls which means a total of ten balls now without putting it back you pick another ball
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what's the probability this next ball is also red it's no longer five out of ten because one red ball is already gone.
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Now there are four red balls and five blue balls left, which means nine balls in total.
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So your second pick depends on the first.
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This is a conditional probability where what happens next depends on what already happened.
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So in short, conditional probability is just regular probability.
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But you already know something, and you use that knowledge to update your chances.
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Awesome!
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So now that we understand what conditional probability means, let's explore the formula behind it.
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Picture a Venn diagram.
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Imagine two overlapping circles, one for event A, which tells that even A has occurred, and one for event B, which tells that even B has occurred.
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The overlapping area, or this region, represents the cases where both A and B happen together, and we call it as event A intersection with event B.
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Suppose you want find the chance of some event A happening, but you already know that another event B has happened.
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This means we are focusing only on the B circle, and inside that circle the overlapping area is the part that also has A.
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So the probability of A given B is just asking, out of everything in the B circle, how much is also in A?
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That's exactly what conditional probability means.
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Therefore, the formula will now be simple.
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The conditional probability of A given B, which we represent like this, is equal to the probability of both A and B happening together, divided by the probability of just B happening, and that's it.
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Now let's look at a super simple example.
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Imagine there are 100 students in a school.
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Out of them, 50 students play football.
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and out of those 50, 30 also play basketball.
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So, we know that 30 students play both football and basketball.
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Now, suppose someone says, Hey, I picked a student and I already know that the student plays football.
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So, what are the chances that the same student also plays basketball?
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Since we already know this student plays football, we're no longer thinking about all 100 students, and we're only focused on the 50 who play football.
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And out of those 50, 30 also play basketball.
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So the chance that this student plays basketball, given that they play football, is simply 30 divided by 50, which is 3 divided by 5, or 60%.
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So the answer is 60%.
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That's a clear example of conditional probability, where we use what we already know to figure out the chance of something else.
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Now let's look at how this fits into the actual formula.
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Let's call the event of playing basketball as event A and the event of playing football as event B.
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So the probability of both events A and B happening together, that is, a student who plays both basketball and football or P of A intersection B is 30 out of 100.
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That's the overlapping part in the Venn diagram.
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Now the probability of just event B, that is a student playing football, is 50 out of 100.
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So the conditional probability of A given B is simply the probability of both A and B divided by the probability of B.
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That's 30 divided 100 whole divided by 50 over 100, which gives us the same 3 out of 5 or 60 percent.
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This is how the formula works behind the scenes.
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If you enjoy my videos and want to support my channel, consider becoming a Patreon, as it helps me create more awesome content for you.
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Link is in the description.
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Also, you can support my channel by joining our community and becoming a member.
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So good!
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Thank you.
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Woordenschat en spreektips bij deze les
Deze spreekles op niveau C1 is gebaseerd op de video “Grade 11: Conditional Probability”. Deze woorden komen het vaakst terug: probability, ball, event, student, football. Deze video bevat 50 zinnen en 771 woorden om na te spreken. Het gesproken deel duurt 5:46. De spreker praat in een gelijkmatig tempo van ongeveer 134 woorden per minuut, prettig om te shadowen. 85% van de woorden hoort bij de 3.000 meest gebruikte Engelse woorden; de rest kun je beter vooraf bekijken.
Belangrijke woorden in deze video
De 13 moeilijkste woorden uit de video, met uitspraak en betekenis:
| Woord | Uitspraak | Betekenis |
|---|---|---|
| probability zelfstandig naamwoord | /ˌpɹɑ.bəˈbɪl.ə.ti/ | waarschijnlijkheid |
| conditional zelfstandig naamwoord | /kənˈdɪʃ.ə.nəl/ | voorwaardelijke wijs |
| divide werkwoord | /dɪˈvaɪd/ | verdelen |
| formula zelfstandig naamwoord | /ˈfɔː.mjʊ.lə/ | formule |
| overlap werkwoord | /ˌəʊvəˈlæp/ | bedekken |
| occur werkwoord | /əˈkɜː/ | plaatsvinden |
| depend werkwoord | /dɪˈpɛnd/ | afhangen |
| intersection zelfstandig naamwoord | /ˈɪntəɹˌsɛkʃən/ | kruising, kruispunt |
| diagram zelfstandig naamwoord | /ˈdaɪ.ə.ɡɹæm/ | diagram |
| guarantee zelfstandig naamwoord | /ˌɡæɹ.ənˈtiː/ | garantie |
| tail zelfstandig naamwoord | /ˈteɪ̯l/ | staart |
| explore werkwoord | /ɪkˈsploɹ/ | onderzoeken, bestuderen |
| coin zelfstandig naamwoord | /ˈkoɪ̯n/ | munt, muntstuk |
Phrasal verbs die je zult horen
| Woord | Betekenis |
|---|---|
| figure out werkwoord | uitvogelen, er achter komen |
Grammatica in deze video
De structuren die de spreker het meest gebruikt, met de exacte woorden uit de video:
| Structuur | In de video |
|---|---|
| Betrekkelijke bijzinnen who / which + zin — extra informatie over een persoon of ding | balls which means · left, which means · student who plays |
| Present perfect have/has + voltooid deelwoord — iets uit het verleden dat nu nog telt | has occurred · has happened |
Uitspraak om op te letten
- De klanken “sh” en “zh”: conditional /kənˈdɪʃ.ə.nəl/, intersection /ˈɪntəɹˌsɛkʃən/
- Lange woorden — let op de klemtoon: probability /ˌpɹɑ.bəˈbɪl.ə.ti/, conditional /kənˈdɪʃ.ə.nəl/, intersection /ˈɪntəɹˌsɛkʃən/
Klanken die Nederlandstaligen lastig vinden:
- Stemhebbende eindmedeklinker — /b/, /d/, /g/, /z/, /v/ niet verscherpen: divide /dɪˈvaɪd/, depend /dɪˈpɛnd/
- /æ/ — opener dan de Nederlandse “e”: overlap /ˌəʊvəˈlæp/, diagram /ˈdaɪ.ə.ɡɹæm/, guarantee /ˌɡæɹ.ənˈtiː/
- /g/ — een harde plofklank, geen Nederlandse “g”: diagram /ˈdaɪ.ə.ɡɹæm/, guarantee /ˌɡæɹ.ənˈtiː/
Zo oefen je met deze video
- Luister de hele video één keer zonder te spreken en noteer de woorden die je niet kent.
- Spreek zin voor zin na op normale snelheid en herhaal elke zin tot je ritme gelijk is aan dat van de spreker.
- Neem jezelf op en vergelijk met het origineel; let daarbij op woorden als probability, conditional, divide.
Wat is de Shadowing-techniek?
Shadowing is een wetenschappelijk onderbouwde taalleermethode die oorspronkelijk is ontwikkeld voor professionele tolkentraining en gepopulariseerd door polyglot Dr. Alexander Arguelles. De methode is eenvoudig maar krachtig: je luistert naar native Engelse audio en herhaalt het onmiddellijk hardop — als een schaduw die de spreker volgt met slechts 1–2 seconden vertraging. In tegenstelling tot passief luisteren of grammaticadrills, dwingt shadowing je hersenen en mondspieren om echte spraakpatronen tegelijkertijd te verwerken en te reproduceren. Onderzoek toont aan dat het de uitspraaknauwkeurigheid, intonatie, ritme, verbonden spraak, luisterbegrip en spreekvaardigheid aanzienlijk verbetert — waardoor het een van de meest effectieve methoden is voor IELTS Speaking-voorbereiding en echte Engelse communicatie.