Shadowing Practice: Grade 11: Conditional Probability - Learn English Speaking with Video
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probability is just about figuring out how likely something is to happen if you flip a coin there are
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two possible outcomes heads or tails each one has a one out of two chance so the probability of getting
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heads is one divided by two if you roll a dice and want a three you have one chance out
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of six so probability is always a number between zero and one where zero means impossible and
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one means it's guaranteed to happen this is a simple probability now comes the fun part called
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conditional probability imagine you have a bag with five red balls and five blue balls you close your eyes and
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pick one ball and it turns out to be red what was the probability of finding this red ball yes it's simple
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answer is five out of ten or one half because we have five red balls and five blue balls which means a total of ten balls now without putting it back you pick another ball
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what's the probability this next ball is also red it's no longer five out of ten because one red ball is already gone.
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Now there are four red balls and five blue balls left, which means nine balls in total.
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So your second pick depends on the first.
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This is a conditional probability where what happens next depends on what already happened.
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So in short, conditional probability is just regular probability.
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But you already know something, and you use that knowledge to update your chances.
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Awesome!
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So now that we understand what conditional probability means, let's explore the formula behind it.
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Picture a Venn diagram.
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Imagine two overlapping circles, one for event A, which tells that even A has occurred, and one for event B, which tells that even B has occurred.
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The overlapping area, or this region, represents the cases where both A and B happen together, and we call it as event A intersection with event B.
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Suppose you want find the chance of some event A happening, but you already know that another event B has happened.
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This means we are focusing only on the B circle, and inside that circle the overlapping area is the part that also has A.
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So the probability of A given B is just asking, out of everything in the B circle, how much is also in A?
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That's exactly what conditional probability means.
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Therefore, the formula will now be simple.
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The conditional probability of A given B, which we represent like this, is equal to the probability of both A and B happening together, divided by the probability of just B happening, and that's it.
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Now let's look at a super simple example.
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Imagine there are 100 students in a school.
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Out of them, 50 students play football.
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and out of those 50, 30 also play basketball.
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So, we know that 30 students play both football and basketball.
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Now, suppose someone says, Hey, I picked a student and I already know that the student plays football.
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So, what are the chances that the same student also plays basketball?
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Since we already know this student plays football, we're no longer thinking about all 100 students, and we're only focused on the 50 who play football.
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And out of those 50, 30 also play basketball.
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So the chance that this student plays basketball, given that they play football, is simply 30 divided by 50, which is 3 divided by 5, or 60%.
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So the answer is 60%.
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That's a clear example of conditional probability, where we use what we already know to figure out the chance of something else.
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Now let's look at how this fits into the actual formula.
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Let's call the event of playing basketball as event A and the event of playing football as event B.
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So the probability of both events A and B happening together, that is, a student who plays both basketball and football or P of A intersection B is 30 out of 100.
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That's the overlapping part in the Venn diagram.
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Now the probability of just event B, that is a student playing football, is 50 out of 100.
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So the conditional probability of A given B is simply the probability of both A and B divided by the probability of B.
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That's 30 divided 100 whole divided by 50 over 100, which gives us the same 3 out of 5 or 60 percent.
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This is how the formula works behind the scenes.
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If you enjoy my videos and want to support my channel, consider becoming a Patreon, as it helps me create more awesome content for you.
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Link is in the description.
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Also, you can support my channel by joining our community and becoming a member.
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So good!
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Thank you.
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Vocabulario y notas de pronunciación para esta lección
Esta lección de conversación de nivel C1 se basa en el vídeo “Grade 11: Conditional Probability”. Las palabras que más se repiten: probability, ball, event, student, football. Este vídeo tiene 50 frases y 771 palabras para practicar shadowing. La parte hablada dura 5:46. El hablante mantiene un ritmo constante de unas 134 palabras por minuto, cómodo para el shadowing. El 85 % de las palabras está entre las 3.000 más comunes del inglés; conviene repasar el resto antes de empezar.
Vocabulario clave de este vídeo
Las 15 palabras más avanzadas del vídeo, con su pronunciación y significado:
| Palabra | Pronunciación | Significado |
|---|---|---|
| probability sustantivo | /ˌpɹɑ.bəˈbɪl.ə.ti/ | probabilidad |
| conditional sustantivo | /kənˈdɪʃ.ə.nəl/ | condicional |
| divide verbo | /dɪˈvaɪd/ | desunir, dividir |
| formula sustantivo | /ˈfɔː.mjʊ.lə/ | fórmula |
| overlap verbo | /ˌəʊvəˈlæp/ | solapar, traslapar |
| occur verbo | /əˈkɜː/ | ocurrir |
| depend verbo | /dɪˈpɛnd/ | depender/pender (de), ser dependiente (de) |
| intersection sustantivo | /ˈɪntəɹˌsɛkʃən/ | cruce |
| diagram sustantivo | /ˈdaɪ.ə.ɡɹæm/ | diagrama |
| guarantee sustantivo | /ˌɡæɹ.ənˈtiː/ | garantía, caución |
| outcome sustantivo | /ˈaʊtkʌm/ | resultado |
| tail sustantivo | /ˈteɪ̯l/ | cola, rabo |
| explore verbo | /ɪkˈsploɹ/ | explorar |
| flip verbo | /flɪp/ | darle vuelta, voltear |
| coin sustantivo | /ˈkoɪ̯n/ | moneda, numerario |
Phrasal verbs que vas a escuchar
| Palabra | Significado |
|---|---|
| figure out verbo | averiguar, captar |
Gramática en este vídeo
Las estructuras que más usa el hablante, con las palabras exactas del vídeo:
| Estructura | En el vídeo |
|---|---|
| Oraciones de relativo who / which + oración — información extra sobre una persona o cosa | balls which means · left, which means · student who plays |
| Present perfect have/has + participio pasado — una acción pasada que sigue importando ahora | has occurred · has happened |
Pronunciación a tener en cuenta
- Los sonidos de “sh” y “zh”: conditional /kənˈdɪʃ.ə.nəl/, intersection /ˈɪntəɹˌsɛkʃən/
- Palabras largas — cuida el acento: probability /ˌpɹɑ.bəˈbɪl.ə.ti/, conditional /kənˈdɪʃ.ə.nəl/, intersection /ˈɪntəɹˌsɛkʃən/
Sonidos difíciles para hispanohablantes:
- /v/ — no es /b/: los dientes tocan el labio inferior: divide /dɪˈvaɪd/, overlap /ˌəʊvəˈlæp/
Cómo practicar con este vídeo
- Escucha el vídeo entero una vez sin hablar y anota las palabras que no conoces.
- Haz shadowing frase por frase a velocidad normal, repitiendo cada una hasta que tu ritmo coincida con el del hablante.
- Grábate y compara con el original, prestando atención a palabras como probability, conditional, divide.
¿Qué es la Técnica de Shadowing?
Shadowing es una técnica de aprendizaje de idiomas respaldada por la ciencia, desarrollada originalmente para la formación de intérpretes profesionales y popularizada por el políglota Dr. Alexander Arguelles. El método es simple pero poderoso: escuchas audio en inglés nativo y lo repites en voz alta de inmediato, como una sombra que sigue al hablante con solo 1-2 segundos de retraso. A diferencia de la escucha pasiva o los ejercicios de gramática, el shadowing obliga a tu cerebro y músculos de la boca a procesar y reproducir simultáneamente patrones de habla reales. Las investigaciones muestran que mejora significativamente la precisión de la pronunciación, la entonación, el ritmo, el habla conectada, la comprensión auditiva y la fluidez al hablar, convirtiéndola en una de las metodologías más efectivas para la preparación del IELTS Speaking y la comunicación en inglés en el mundo real.