Shadowing Practice: Grade 11: Conditional Probability - Learn English Speaking with Video
Ders oluşturuluyor...
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probability is just about figuring out how likely something is to happen if you flip a coin there are
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two possible outcomes heads or tails each one has a one out of two chance so the probability of getting
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heads is one divided by two if you roll a dice and want a three you have one chance out
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of six so probability is always a number between zero and one where zero means impossible and
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one means it's guaranteed to happen this is a simple probability now comes the fun part called
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conditional probability imagine you have a bag with five red balls and five blue balls you close your eyes and
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pick one ball and it turns out to be red what was the probability of finding this red ball yes it's simple
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answer is five out of ten or one half because we have five red balls and five blue balls which means a total of ten balls now without putting it back you pick another ball
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what's the probability this next ball is also red it's no longer five out of ten because one red ball is already gone.
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Now there are four red balls and five blue balls left, which means nine balls in total.
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So your second pick depends on the first.
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This is a conditional probability where what happens next depends on what already happened.
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So in short, conditional probability is just regular probability.
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But you already know something, and you use that knowledge to update your chances.
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Awesome!
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So now that we understand what conditional probability means, let's explore the formula behind it.
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Picture a Venn diagram.
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Imagine two overlapping circles, one for event A, which tells that even A has occurred, and one for event B, which tells that even B has occurred.
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The overlapping area, or this region, represents the cases where both A and B happen together, and we call it as event A intersection with event B.
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Suppose you want find the chance of some event A happening, but you already know that another event B has happened.
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This means we are focusing only on the B circle, and inside that circle the overlapping area is the part that also has A.
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So the probability of A given B is just asking, out of everything in the B circle, how much is also in A?
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That's exactly what conditional probability means.
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Therefore, the formula will now be simple.
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The conditional probability of A given B, which we represent like this, is equal to the probability of both A and B happening together, divided by the probability of just B happening, and that's it.
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Now let's look at a super simple example.
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Imagine there are 100 students in a school.
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Out of them, 50 students play football.
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and out of those 50, 30 also play basketball.
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So, we know that 30 students play both football and basketball.
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Now, suppose someone says, Hey, I picked a student and I already know that the student plays football.
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So, what are the chances that the same student also plays basketball?
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Since we already know this student plays football, we're no longer thinking about all 100 students, and we're only focused on the 50 who play football.
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And out of those 50, 30 also play basketball.
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So the chance that this student plays basketball, given that they play football, is simply 30 divided by 50, which is 3 divided by 5, or 60%.
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So the answer is 60%.
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That's a clear example of conditional probability, where we use what we already know to figure out the chance of something else.
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Now let's look at how this fits into the actual formula.
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Let's call the event of playing basketball as event A and the event of playing football as event B.
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So the probability of both events A and B happening together, that is, a student who plays both basketball and football or P of A intersection B is 30 out of 100.
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That's the overlapping part in the Venn diagram.
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Now the probability of just event B, that is a student playing football, is 50 out of 100.
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So the conditional probability of A given B is simply the probability of both A and B divided by the probability of B.
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That's 30 divided 100 whole divided by 50 over 100, which gives us the same 3 out of 5 or 60 percent.
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This is how the formula works behind the scenes.
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If you enjoy my videos and want to support my channel, consider becoming a Patreon, as it helps me create more awesome content for you.
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Link is in the description.
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Also, you can support my channel by joining our community and becoming a member.
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So good!
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Thank you.
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Bu dersin kelimeleri ve konuşma notları
Bu C1 seviyesindeki konuşma dersi “Grade 11: Conditional Probability” videosuna dayanıyor. En çok tekrarlanan kelimeler: probability, ball, event, student, football. Bu videoda gölgeleme çalışması için 50 cümle ve 771 kelime var. Konuşma bölümü 5:46 sürüyor. Konuşmacı dakikada yaklaşık 134 kelimelik dengeli bir hızla konuşuyor; gölgeleme için rahat bir tempo. Kelimelerin %85’i İngilizcede en sık kullanılan 3.000 kelime arasında; geri kalanına başlamadan önce bakmakta fayda var.
Bu videodaki önemli kelimeler
Videodaki en ileri düzey 9 kelime, telaffuzu ve anlamıyla:
| Kelime | Telaffuz | Anlam |
|---|---|---|
| conditional isim | /kənˈdɪʃ.ə.nəl/ | koşul bileşik zamanı, şart bileşik zamanı |
| formula isim | /ˈfɔː.mjʊ.lə/ | formül |
| occur fiil | /əˈkɜː/ | olmak |
| intersection isim | /ˈɪntəɹˌsɛkʃən/ | kesişme |
| diagram isim | /ˈdaɪ.ə.ɡɹæm/ | şema |
| guarantee isim | /ˌɡæɹ.ənˈtiː/ | garanti, güvence |
| tail isim | /ˈteɪ̯l/ | kuyruk |
| explore fiil | /ɪkˈsploɹ/ | araştırmak |
| coin isim | /ˈkoɪ̯n/ | madenî para, demir para |
Duyacağınız deyimsel fiiller
| Kelime | Anlam |
|---|---|
| figure out fiil | açığa çıkarmak |
Bu videodaki dil bilgisi
Konuşmacının en çok kullandığı yapılar, videodaki sözcüklerin aynısıyla:
| Yapı | Videoda |
|---|---|
| İlgi cümlecikleri who / which + cümle — bir kişi ya da şey hakkında ek bilgi | balls which means · left, which means · student who plays |
| Present perfect have/has + fiilin üçüncü hâli — geçmişte olan ama şimdi de önemli olan bir eylem | has occurred · has happened |
Dikkat edilecek telaffuzlar
- “sh” ve “zh” sesleri: conditional /kənˈdɪʃ.ə.nəl/, intersection /ˈɪntəɹˌsɛkʃən/
- Uzun kelimeler — vurguyu doğru yere koyun: probability /ˌpɹɑ.bəˈbɪl.ə.ti/, conditional /kənˈdɪʃ.ə.nəl/, intersection /ˈɪntəɹˌsɛkʃən/
Türkçe konuşanların zorlandığı sesler:
- Kelime başındaki ünsüz kümesi — araya ünlü eklemeyin: probability /ˌpɹɑ.bəˈbɪl.ə.ti/, flip /flɪp/
- /æ/ — “e”den daha açık: overlap /ˌəʊvəˈlæp/, diagram /ˈdaɪ.ə.ɡɹæm/, guarantee /ˌɡæɹ.ənˈtiː/
Bu videoyla nasıl çalışılır
- Videonun tamamını konuşmadan bir kez dinleyin ve bilmediğiniz kelimeleri not edin.
- Normal hızda cümle cümle tekrar edin; ritminiz konuşmacıyla aynı olana kadar her cümleyi yineleyin.
- Kendinizi kaydedin ve orijinaliyle karşılaştırın; conditional, formula, occur gibi kelimelere özellikle dikkat edin.
Gölgeleme Tekniği Nedir?
Gölgeleme, başlangıçta profesyonel tercüman eğitimi için geliştirilen ve çok dilli Dr. Alexander Arguelles tarafından popüler hale getirilen, bilim destekli bir dil öğrenme tekniğidir. Yöntem basit ama güçlüdür: ana dili İngilizce olan bir sesi dinler ve hemen yüksek sesle tekrar edersiniz — konuşmacıyı 1-2 saniye gecikmeyle takip eden bir gölge gibi. Pasif dinleme veya dilbilgisi alıştırmalarının aksine, gölgeleme beyninizi ve ağız kaslarınızı gerçek konuşma kalıplarını eşzamanlı olarak işlemeye ve yeniden üretmeye zorlar. Araştırmalar, telaffuz doğruluğu, tonlama, ritim, bağlı konuşma, dinleme anlama ve konuşma akıcılığını önemli ölçüde geliştirdiğini göstermektedir — bu da onu IELTS Konuşma hazırlığı ve gerçek dünya İngilizce iletişimi için en etkili yöntemlerden biri yapar.