Shadowing Practice: How Long Can the Fed Hold On? - Learn English Speaking with Video
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Welcome to Thoughts on the Market.
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I'm Andrew Sheets, Global Head of Fixed Income Research at Morgan Stanley.
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Today, can the Fed hold the line?
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It's Wednesday, August 5th at 2 p.m in London.
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The Federal Reserve has a difficult job.
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The U.S economy is a complex and varied ecosystem that covers everything from brain surgery to your burger order.
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The Fed is asked to keep prices stable and people employed using, for the most part, just one simple tool,
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a short-term interest rate, and without any control over what government policy or global events might bring.
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Currently, the Fed probably feels pretty good about its success with one half of this in the job market, given that the unemployment rate is near historical lows.
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But it probably feels less successful about price stability.
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Over the last five years, overall prices in the U.S economy have risen over 20% based on the Fed's preferred inflation measure.
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That's roughly double the increase that a goal of 2% annual inflation would otherwise bring.
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Into this complexity steps a new Fed chair, Kevin Warsh.
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He has emphasized two changes for his tenure.
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First, that inflation is too high and needs to come down.
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And second, that the Fed has historically communicated too much with the market, which Chair Warsh thinks has helped contribute to investors potentially taking too much risk,
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while also restricting the Fed's options to act.
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What markets are now processing is a potential tension between these two goals.
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After all, high inflation is an immediate issue.
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In a world where the Fed is hoping to keep price increases at about 2% per year, their preferred measure, PCE inflation,
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is rising more than 3% on an annualized basis over the last 3, 6, and 12 months.
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In the latest ISM manufacturing survey, measure of price increases among manufacturers is well above normal.
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In the face of that, one option for the Fed to combat this inflation would have been to raise interest rates.
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It didn't do that.
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Another would be to suggest that it was very close to taking action and likely to move soon.
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It didn't do that either.
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Indeed, our economists think that the market took Chair Warsh's lack of guidance
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and action at the most recent Fed's meeting to suggest a pretty high bar for rate hikes,
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and even the potential to redefine the Fed's 2% inflation target in favor of something more general and unspecified.
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The result was a market reaction that would suggest less focus on inflation.
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The prospects for rate hikes were reduced, the yield curve steepened, led by a sell-off of long-end yields, measures of expected inflation rose, and the U.S dollar weakened.
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In the days since, markets have settled a bit.
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But the result is going to be a market that is now going to be much more sensitive to incoming inflation data.
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If that inflation data moderates in the second half of this year, as we at Morgan Stanley expect, then the Fed's approach could look justified,
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as the data suggests that neither action nor more communication about what they're going to do is necessary.
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But if inflation doesn't cooperate, the challenge becomes immediate.
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Christopher Waller, another member of the Fed, recently said that, quote, sternly staring at inflation until it melts before our withering gaze is not an option.
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The market will expect action and expect a framework explaining that action.
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Until that point, our rate strategists think that yield curves will continue to steep it.
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Thank you, as always, for your time.
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If you find Thoughts of the Market useful, let us know by leaving a review wherever you listen, and also tell a friend or colleague about us today.
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The preceding content is informational only and based on information available when created.
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It is not an offer or solicitation, nor is it tax or legal advice.
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It does not consider your financial circumstances and objectives and may not be suitable for you.
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Woordenschat en spreektips bij deze les
Deze spreekles op niveau C1 is gebaseerd op de video “How Long Can the Fed Hold On?”. Deze woorden komen het vaakst terug: inflation, Fed, rate, price, action. Deze video bevat 44 zinnen en 661 woorden om na te spreken. Het gesproken deel duurt 3:52. De spreker praat in een natuurlijk tempo van ongeveer 171 woorden per minuut, dicht bij een alledaags gesprek. 82% van de woorden hoort bij de 3.000 meest gebruikte Engelse woorden; de rest kun je beter vooraf bekijken.
Belangrijke woorden in deze video
De 15 moeilijkste woorden uit de video, met uitspraak en betekenis:
| Woord | Uitspraak | Betekenis |
|---|---|---|
| hike zelfstandig naamwoord | /haɪk/ | wandeling |
| precede werkwoord | /pɹɪˈsid/ | voorafgaan, laten voorbijgaan |
| strategist zelfstandig naamwoord | /ˈstɹætəd͡ʒɪst/ | strateeg |
| weaken werkwoord | /ˈwikən/ | verzwakken |
| wither werkwoord | /ˈwɪðɚ/ | verschrompelen, verdorren |
| circumstance zelfstandig naamwoord | /ˈsɝ.kəmˌstæns/ | omstandigheid |
| emphasize werkwoord | /ˈɛm.fə.saɪz/ | benadrukken, beklemtonen |
| gaze werkwoord | /ɡeɪz/ | staren, turen |
| ecosystem zelfstandig naamwoord | /ˈikoʊˌsɪstəm/ | ecosysteem |
| cooperate werkwoord | /kəʊˈɒp.ə.ɹeɪt/ | samenwerken |
| restrict werkwoord | /ɹɪˈstɹɪkt/ | beperken, begrenzen |
| economist zelfstandig naamwoord | /iˈkɑ.nə.mɪst/ | econoom |
| stare werkwoord | /stɛɚ/ | staren |
| tenure zelfstandig naamwoord | /ˈtɛn.jʊə/ | bezit |
| melt werkwoord | /mɛlt/ | smelten, laten smelten |
Grammatica in deze video
De structuren die de spreker het meest gebruikt, met de exacte woorden uit de video:
| Structuur | In de video |
|---|---|
| Present perfect have/has + voltooid deelwoord — iets uit het verleden dat nu nog telt | have risen · has emphasized · has helped |
| Lijdende vorm be + voltooid deelwoord — het gaat om wat er gebeurt, niet om wie het doet | is asked · were reduced |
Uitspraak om op te letten
De spreker gebruikt 5 samentrekkingen en verkorte vormen, zoals didn't, doesn't, I'm. Spreek ze kort uit, zoals je ze hoort.
- De klanken “sh” en “zh”: informational /ˌɪnfəˈmeɪʃənəl/, solicitation /səˌlɪsɪˈteɪʃən/
- Lange woorden — let op de klemtoon: informational /ˌɪnfəˈmeɪʃənəl/, solicitation /səˌlɪsɪˈteɪʃən/, unspecified /ʌnˈspɛ.sɪ.faɪd/, ecosystem /ˈikoʊˌsɪstəm/, cooperate /kəʊˈɒp.ə.ɹeɪt/
Klanken die Nederlandstaligen lastig vinden:
- Stemhebbende eindmedeklinker — /b/, /d/, /g/, /z/, /v/ niet verscherpen: precede /pɹɪˈsid/, unspecified /ʌnˈspɛ.sɪ.faɪd/, emphasize /ˈɛm.fə.saɪz/, gaze /ɡeɪz/, colleague /ˈkɒliːɡ/
- /æ/ — opener dan de Nederlandse “e”: strategist /ˈstɹætəd͡ʒɪst/, circumstance /ˈsɝ.kəmˌstæns/
- /g/ — een harde plofklank, geen Nederlandse “g”: gaze /ɡeɪz/, colleague /ˈkɒliːɡ/, burger /ˈbɝ.ɡɚ/
Zo oefen je met deze video
- Luister de hele video één keer zonder te spreken en noteer de woorden die je niet kent.
- Begin op 0,75× snelheid, spreek zin voor zin na en ga terug naar normale snelheid zodra het makkelijk gaat.
- Neem jezelf op en vergelijk met het origineel; let daarbij op woorden als hike, precede, strategist.
Wat is de Shadowing-techniek?
Shadowing is een wetenschappelijk onderbouwde taalleermethode die oorspronkelijk is ontwikkeld voor professionele tolkentraining en gepopulariseerd door polyglot Dr. Alexander Arguelles. De methode is eenvoudig maar krachtig: je luistert naar native Engelse audio en herhaalt het onmiddellijk hardop — als een schaduw die de spreker volgt met slechts 1–2 seconden vertraging. In tegenstelling tot passief luisteren of grammaticadrills, dwingt shadowing je hersenen en mondspieren om echte spraakpatronen tegelijkertijd te verwerken en te reproduceren. Onderzoek toont aan dat het de uitspraaknauwkeurigheid, intonatie, ritme, verbonden spraak, luisterbegrip en spreekvaardigheid aanzienlijk verbetert — waardoor het een van de meest effectieve methoden is voor IELTS Speaking-voorbereiding en echte Engelse communicatie.