跟读练习: How Long Can the Fed Hold On? - 通过视频学习英语口语
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44 句
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1
Welcome to Thoughts on the Market.
欢迎收听《市场杂谈》。
2
I'm Andrew Sheets, Global Head of Fixed Income Research at Morgan Stanley.
我是摩根士丹利全球固定收益研究主管安德鲁·希茨。
3
Today, can the Fed hold the line?
今天，美联储能否坚守立场？
4
It's Wednesday, August 5th at 2 p.m in London.
现在是伦敦时间8月5日星期三下午2点。
5
The Federal Reserve has a difficult job.
美联储的工作十分艰巨。
6
The U.S economy is a complex and varied ecosystem that covers everything from brain surgery to your burger order.
美国经济是一个复杂多样的生态系统，涵盖了从脑部手术到你点的汉堡的方方面面。
7
The Fed is asked to keep prices stable and people employed using, for the most part, just one simple tool,
美联储被要求在很大程度上仅依靠一种简单的工具来维持物价稳定和促进就业。
8
a short-term interest rate, and without any control over what government policy or global events might bring.
短期利率，而且完全无法控制政府政策或全球事件可能带来的影响。
9
Currently, the Fed probably feels pretty good about its success with one half of this in the job market, given that the unemployment rate is near historical lows.
目前，鉴于失业率接近历史低点，美联储可能对其在就业市场这一半任务上取得的成功感到相当满意。
10
But it probably feels less successful about price stability.
但它在物价稳定方面可能感觉成效没那么显著。
11
Over the last five years, overall prices in the U.S economy have risen over 20% based on the Fed's preferred inflation measure.
过去五年，根据美联储偏好的通胀指标，美国经济的整体物价水平已上涨超过20%。
12
That's roughly double the increase that a goal of 2% annual inflation would otherwise bring.
这一增幅大约是2%年通胀目标原本会带来的增幅的两倍。
13
Into this complexity steps a new Fed chair, Kevin Warsh.
在这错综复杂的局势中，一位新任美联储主席凯文·沃什走马上任。
14
He has emphasized two changes for his tenure.
他强调了自己任期内的两项变革。
15
First, that inflation is too high and needs to come down.
首先，通胀水平过高，需要回落。
16
And second, that the Fed has historically communicated too much with the market, which Chair Warsh thinks has helped contribute to investors potentially taking too much risk,
其次，美联储历史上与市场沟通过于频繁，沃什主席认为这可能导致投资者承担了过多风险。
17
while also restricting the Fed's options to act.
同时也限制了美联储采取行动的选择空间。
18
What markets are now processing is a potential tension between these two goals.
当前市场正在消化这两个目标之间可能存在的紧张关系。
19
After all, high inflation is an immediate issue.
毕竟，高通胀是一个迫在眉睫的问题。
20
In a world where the Fed is hoping to keep price increases at about 2% per year, their preferred measure, PCE inflation,
在一个美联储希望将年度物价涨幅维持在约2%的世界里，他们偏好的衡量指标PCE通胀率，
21
is rising more than 3% on an annualized basis over the last 3, 6, and 12 months.
过去3个月、6个月和12个月的年化增长率均超过3%。
22
In the latest ISM manufacturing survey, measure of price increases among manufacturers is well above normal.
最新的ISM制造业调查显示，制造商的物价上涨水平远高于正常水平。
23
In the face of that, one option for the Fed to combat this inflation would have been to raise interest rates.
面对这种情况，美联储应对通胀的一个选择本可以是加息。
24
It didn't do that.
它没有那样做。
25
Another would be to suggest that it was very close to taking action and likely to move soon.
另一种解读是暗示该机构已非常接近采取行动，且很可能很快就会有所动作。
26
It didn't do that either.
它也没有那样做。
27
Indeed, our economists think that the market took Chair Warsh's lack of guidance
事实上，我们的经济学家认为，市场将沃什主席未给出明确指引的情况
28
and action at the most recent Fed's meeting to suggest a pretty high bar for rate hikes,
以及美联储最近一次会议上的行动都表明，加息的门槛相当高。
29
and even the potential to redefine the Fed's 2% inflation target in favor of something more general and unspecified.
甚至有可能重新定义美联储2%的通胀目标，转而采用更宽泛、更不明确的标准。
30
The result was a market reaction that would suggest less focus on inflation.
结果是市场反应表明，人们对通胀的关注有所减弱。
31
The prospects for rate hikes were reduced, the yield curve steepened, led by a sell-off of long-end yields, measures of expected inflation rose, and the U.S dollar weakened.
加息预期降温，长端收益率遭抛售带动收益率曲线趋陡，通胀预期指标上升，美元走弱。
32
In the days since, markets have settled a bit.
自那以后的几天里，市场已经有所企稳。
33
But the result is going to be a market that is now going to be much more sensitive to incoming inflation data.
但结果是，如今市场对即将公布的通胀数据将会变得敏感得多。
34
If that inflation data moderates in the second half of this year, as we at Morgan Stanley expect, then the Fed's approach could look justified,
如果通胀数据在今年下半年如摩根士丹利所预期的那样有所缓和，那么美联储的做法可能会被证明是合理的。
35
as the data suggests that neither action nor more communication about what they're going to do is necessary.
因为数据表明，既不需要采取行动，也不需要就他们将要采取的措施进行更多沟通。
36
But if inflation doesn't cooperate, the challenge becomes immediate.
但如果通胀未能回落，挑战就会迫在眉睫。
37
Christopher Waller, another member of the Fed, recently said that, quote, sternly staring at inflation until it melts before our withering gaze is not an option.
美联储另一位成员克里斯托弗·沃勒最近表示，“紧盯着通胀、指望它在我们锐利的目光下自行消散，这种做法是行不通的。”
38
The market will expect action and expect a framework explaining that action.
市场将期待看到行动，并期待有一个框架来解释这些行动。
39
Until that point, our rate strategists think that yield curves will continue to steep it.
在此之前，我们的利率策略师认为收益率曲线将继续趋陡。
40
Thank you, as always, for your time.
一如既往地感谢您抽出时间。
41
If you find Thoughts of the Market useful, let us know by leaving a review wherever you listen, and also tell a friend or colleague about us today.
如果您觉得《市场思考》对您有帮助，请在您收听节目的平台上留下评论告诉我们，也欢迎今天就把我们推荐给您的朋友或同事。
42
The preceding content is informational only and based on information available when created.
以上内容仅供参考，基于创作时可获取的信息编制。
43
It is not an offer or solicitation, nor is it tax or legal advice.
44
It does not consider your financial circumstances and objectives and may not be suitable for you.
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为什么这个视频是绝佳的口语练习素材？
想通过看YouTube学英语还能顺便提升口语？这个视频太适合了！它的内容围绕美联储政策展开，用词专业但表达清晰，语速适中，非常适合练习雅思口语练习或日常英语口语。视频里的对话逻辑严谨，包含大量实用的经济类词汇，同时句子结构丰富，从简单句到复合句都有，能帮你快速熟悉自然的英语表达节奏，是影子跟读法（shadowing）的好材料。
拆解地道表达，轻松学发音
我们来看看视频里的几个自然表达，帮你提高英语发音和口语流畅度：
- “The U.S economy is a complex and varied ecosystem” 这句话中，“complex and varied”连读自然，“ecosystem”的重音在第一个音节，模仿时注意语调的起伏，能让你的表达更有层次感。
- “the Fed has historically communicated too much with the market” 这里“communicated too much”的弱读处理很巧妙，“too”的发音较轻，避免生硬，体现口语的自然感。
- “sternly staring at inflation until it melts before our withering gaze” 这句的节奏明快，“sternly staring”和“withering gaze”的爆破音发音要清晰，同时注意整体的流畅性，适合练习连读和重音。
简单高效的影子跟读法练习流程
利用这个视频做英语口语练习，试试以下步骤：首先，找到一个合适的shadowing site，播放视频片段（每次10-15秒），仔细听并记住内容；然后，暂停视频，立即跟读，尽量模仿发音、语调甚至语速；最后，用手机录音，对比自己和原音的差异，重点纠正发音和节奏。重复这个过程，每天练习15分钟，一周就能感受到进步！这种方法不仅能提升听力，还能让你的口语更地道，特别适合雅思口语练习。
别再犹豫啦，现在就打开视频，开始你的影子跟读法练习吧，让你的英语发音和口语流畅度快速提升！
视频中的语法
说话人最常用的结构，并附上视频中的原话：
| 结构 | 视频中的用法 |
|---|---|
| 现在完成时 have/has + 过去分词 — 过去发生但与现在仍有关联的事 | have risen · has emphasized · has helped |
| 被动语态 be + 过去分词 — 强调发生了什么，而不是谁做的 | is asked · were reduced |
什么是跟读法？
跟读法 (Shadowing) 是一种有科学依据的语言学习技巧，最初开发用于专业口译员的培训，并由多语言者Alexander Arguelles博士普及。这个方法简单而强大：您在听英语母语原声的同时立即大声重复——就像是一个延迟1-2秒紧跟说话者的影子。与被动听力或语法练习不同，跟读法强迫您的大脑和口腔肌肉同时处理并模仿真实的讲话模式。研究表明它能显着提高发音准确性，语调，节奏，连读，听力理解和口语流利度——使其成为雅思口语备考和真实英语交流最有效的方法之一。