تدريب Shadowing: How Long Can the Fed Hold On? - تعلم التحدث بالإنجليزية عبر الفيديو
جارٍ إنشاء الدرس...
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Welcome to Thoughts on the Market.
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I'm Andrew Sheets, Global Head of Fixed Income Research at Morgan Stanley.
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Today, can the Fed hold the line?
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It's Wednesday, August 5th at 2 p.m in London.
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The Federal Reserve has a difficult job.
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The U.S economy is a complex and varied ecosystem that covers everything from brain surgery to your burger order.
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The Fed is asked to keep prices stable and people employed using, for the most part, just one simple tool,
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a short-term interest rate, and without any control over what government policy or global events might bring.
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Currently, the Fed probably feels pretty good about its success with one half of this in the job market, given that the unemployment rate is near historical lows.
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But it probably feels less successful about price stability.
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Over the last five years, overall prices in the U.S economy have risen over 20% based on the Fed's preferred inflation measure.
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That's roughly double the increase that a goal of 2% annual inflation would otherwise bring.
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Into this complexity steps a new Fed chair, Kevin Warsh.
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He has emphasized two changes for his tenure.
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First, that inflation is too high and needs to come down.
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And second, that the Fed has historically communicated too much with the market, which Chair Warsh thinks has helped contribute to investors potentially taking too much risk,
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while also restricting the Fed's options to act.
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What markets are now processing is a potential tension between these two goals.
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After all, high inflation is an immediate issue.
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In a world where the Fed is hoping to keep price increases at about 2% per year, their preferred measure, PCE inflation,
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is rising more than 3% on an annualized basis over the last 3, 6, and 12 months.
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In the latest ISM manufacturing survey, measure of price increases among manufacturers is well above normal.
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In the face of that, one option for the Fed to combat this inflation would have been to raise interest rates.
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It didn't do that.
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Another would be to suggest that it was very close to taking action and likely to move soon.
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It didn't do that either.
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Indeed, our economists think that the market took Chair Warsh's lack of guidance
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and action at the most recent Fed's meeting to suggest a pretty high bar for rate hikes,
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and even the potential to redefine the Fed's 2% inflation target in favor of something more general and unspecified.
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The result was a market reaction that would suggest less focus on inflation.
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The prospects for rate hikes were reduced, the yield curve steepened, led by a sell-off of long-end yields, measures of expected inflation rose, and the U.S dollar weakened.
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In the days since, markets have settled a bit.
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But the result is going to be a market that is now going to be much more sensitive to incoming inflation data.
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If that inflation data moderates in the second half of this year, as we at Morgan Stanley expect, then the Fed's approach could look justified,
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as the data suggests that neither action nor more communication about what they're going to do is necessary.
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But if inflation doesn't cooperate, the challenge becomes immediate.
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Christopher Waller, another member of the Fed, recently said that, quote, sternly staring at inflation until it melts before our withering gaze is not an option.
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The market will expect action and expect a framework explaining that action.
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Until that point, our rate strategists think that yield curves will continue to steep it.
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Thank you, as always, for your time.
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The preceding content is informational only and based on information available when created.
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It is not an offer or solicitation, nor is it tax or legal advice.
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حول هذا الدرس
في هذا الدرس، ستتدرب على تحسين مهاراتك في التحدث باللغة الإنجليزية من خلال التركيز على استراتيجيات التظليل. سيساعدك الفيديو على فهم التحديات التي يواجهها الاحتياطي الفيدرالي وكيف تؤثر على السوق، مما يمنحك سياقًا جيدًا لتحسين قدراتك اللغوية. سنتحدث عن كيفية استخدام طريقة التظليل في المحادثات اليومية وكيفية التعبير عن الآراء المالية بوضوح وثقة.
المفردات والعبارات الرئيسية
- الاحتياطي الفيدرالي - Federal Reserve
- معدل الفائدة - interest rate
- استقرار الأسعار - price stability
- البطالة - unemployment
- التضخم - inflation
- الأسواق المالية - financial markets
- إجراءات - actions
- توقعات السوق - market expectations
نصائح للممارسة
لتحقيق أفضل استفادة من الفيديو، استخدم طريقة التظليل في التحدث. قم بتكرار الجمل بعد المتحدث، مع الأخذ في الاعتبار السرعة والنغمة. ركز على:
- التكرار الفوري: حاول أن تكرر ما تسمعه في نفس الوقت، مما سيساعدك على تحسين الانسيابية.
- التركيز على النغمة: انتبه إلى كيفية تغير نغمة الصوت عند الحديث عن مواضيع مختلفة، خاصة عند مناقشة المواضيع المالية.
- التسجيل الصوتي: قم بتسجيل صوتك أثناء ممارسة التظليل، واستمع إليه لاحقًا لتحديد نقاط القوة والضعف لديك.
- تكرار الممارسة: لا تتردد في إعادة مشاهدة الفيديو عدة مرات، والتركيز على أجزاء معينة تتطلب تحسينًا.
تذكر أن طريقة التظليل في الإنجليزية هي وسيلة فعالة لتطوير مهارات التحدث لديك، لذا استمر في الممارسة واستخدم تقنيات shadowspeak لتحقيق النجاح.
القواعد في هذا الفيديو
أكثر التراكيب التي يستخدمها المتحدث، مع العبارات نفسها من الفيديو:
| التركيب | في الفيديو |
|---|---|
| المضارع التام have/has + اسم المفعول — حدث ماضٍ ما زال له أثر الآن | have risen · has emphasized · has helped |
| المبني للمجهول be + اسم المفعول — التركيز على ما يحدث لا على من يفعله | is asked · were reduced |
ما هي تقنية التظليل الصوتي؟
التظليل الصوتي (Shadowing) تقنية تعلم لغة مدعومة علمياً، طُورت أصلاً لتدريب المترجمين الفوريين المحترفين. الطريقة بسيطة لكنها قوية: تستمع لصوت إنجليزي أصلي وتكرره فوراً بصوت عالٍ — كظل يتبع المتحدث بتأخير 1-2 ثانية. تُظهر الأبحاث تحسناً كبيراً في دقة النطق والتنغيم والإيقاع وربط الأصوات والاستماع والطلاقة.