Pratique du Shadowing: How Long Can the Fed Hold On? - Apprendre l'anglais à l'oral avec la vidéo
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Welcome to Thoughts on the Market.
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I'm Andrew Sheets, Global Head of Fixed Income Research at Morgan Stanley.
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Today, can the Fed hold the line?
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It's Wednesday, August 5th at 2 p.m in London.
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The Federal Reserve has a difficult job.
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The U.S economy is a complex and varied ecosystem that covers everything from brain surgery to your burger order.
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The Fed is asked to keep prices stable and people employed using, for the most part, just one simple tool,
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a short-term interest rate, and without any control over what government policy or global events might bring.
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Currently, the Fed probably feels pretty good about its success with one half of this in the job market, given that the unemployment rate is near historical lows.
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But it probably feels less successful about price stability.
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Over the last five years, overall prices in the U.S economy have risen over 20% based on the Fed's preferred inflation measure.
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That's roughly double the increase that a goal of 2% annual inflation would otherwise bring.
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Into this complexity steps a new Fed chair, Kevin Warsh.
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He has emphasized two changes for his tenure.
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First, that inflation is too high and needs to come down.
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And second, that the Fed has historically communicated too much with the market, which Chair Warsh thinks has helped contribute to investors potentially taking too much risk,
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while also restricting the Fed's options to act.
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What markets are now processing is a potential tension between these two goals.
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After all, high inflation is an immediate issue.
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In a world where the Fed is hoping to keep price increases at about 2% per year, their preferred measure, PCE inflation,
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is rising more than 3% on an annualized basis over the last 3, 6, and 12 months.
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In the latest ISM manufacturing survey, measure of price increases among manufacturers is well above normal.
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In the face of that, one option for the Fed to combat this inflation would have been to raise interest rates.
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It didn't do that.
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Another would be to suggest that it was very close to taking action and likely to move soon.
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It didn't do that either.
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Indeed, our economists think that the market took Chair Warsh's lack of guidance
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and action at the most recent Fed's meeting to suggest a pretty high bar for rate hikes,
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and even the potential to redefine the Fed's 2% inflation target in favor of something more general and unspecified.
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The result was a market reaction that would suggest less focus on inflation.
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The prospects for rate hikes were reduced, the yield curve steepened, led by a sell-off of long-end yields, measures of expected inflation rose, and the U.S dollar weakened.
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In the days since, markets have settled a bit.
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But the result is going to be a market that is now going to be much more sensitive to incoming inflation data.
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If that inflation data moderates in the second half of this year, as we at Morgan Stanley expect, then the Fed's approach could look justified,
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as the data suggests that neither action nor more communication about what they're going to do is necessary.
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But if inflation doesn't cooperate, the challenge becomes immediate.
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Christopher Waller, another member of the Fed, recently said that, quote, sternly staring at inflation until it melts before our withering gaze is not an option.
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The market will expect action and expect a framework explaining that action.
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Until that point, our rate strategists think that yield curves will continue to steep it.
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Thank you, as always, for your time.
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If you find Thoughts of the Market useful, let us know by leaving a review wherever you listen, and also tell a friend or colleague about us today.
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The preceding content is informational only and based on information available when created.
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It is not an offer or solicitation, nor is it tax or legal advice.
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It does not consider your financial circumstances and objectives and may not be suitable for you.
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Vocabulaire et conseils d’expression pour cette leçon
Cette leçon d’expression orale de niveau C1 s’appuie sur la vidéo « How Long Can the Fed Hold On? ». Les mots qui reviennent le plus souvent : inflation, Fed, rate, price, action. Cette vidéo contient 44 phrases et 661 mots à répéter en shadowing. La partie parlée dure 3:52. Le locuteur parle à un rythme naturel d’environ 171 mots par minute, proche d’une conversation courante. 82 % des mots font partie des 3 000 mots les plus courants en anglais ; le reste mérite d’être vu avant de commencer.
Vocabulaire clé de cette vidéo
Les 15 mots les plus avancés de la vidéo, avec leur prononciation et leur sens :
| Mot | Prononciation | Sens |
|---|---|---|
| hike nom | /haɪk/ | randonnée |
| informational adjectif | /ˌɪnfəˈmeɪʃənəl/ | informationnel |
| precede verbe | /pɹɪˈsid/ | précéder |
| redefine verbe | redéfinir | |
| solicitation nom | /səˌlɪsɪˈteɪʃən/ | sollicitation |
| strategist nom | /ˈstɹætəd͡ʒɪst/ | stratège |
| weaken verbe | /ˈwikən/ | affaiblir |
| wither verbe | /ˈwɪðɚ/ | flétrir, se faner |
| circumstance nom | /ˈsɝ.kəmˌstæns/ | circonstance |
| emphasize verbe | /ˈɛm.fə.saɪz/ | souligner, accentuer |
| gaze verbe | /ɡeɪz/ | fixer |
| ecosystem nom | /ˈikoʊˌsɪstəm/ | écosystème |
| cooperate verbe | /kəʊˈɒp.ə.ɹeɪt/ | coopérer, collaborer |
| restrict verbe | /ɹɪˈstɹɪkt/ | restreindre, limiter |
| economist nom | /iˈkɑ.nə.mɪst/ | économiste |
Les verbes à particule que vous entendrez
| Mot | Sens |
|---|---|
| come down verbe | descendre, tomber |
La grammaire de cette vidéo
Les structures que le locuteur utilise le plus, avec les mots exacts de la vidéo :
| Structure | Dans la vidéo |
|---|---|
| Present perfect have/has + participe passé — une action passée qui compte encore maintenant | have risen · has emphasized · has helped |
| Voix passive be + participe passé — l’accent est mis sur ce qui arrive, pas sur qui le fait | is asked · were reduced |
Prononciation à surveiller
Le locuteur utilise 5 contractions et formes réduites, comme didn't, doesn't, I'm. Prononcez-les sous leur forme courte, telles que vous les entendez.
- Les sons « sh » et « zh »: informational /ˌɪnfəˈmeɪʃənəl/, solicitation /səˌlɪsɪˈteɪʃən/
- Mots longs — placez bien l’accent: informational /ˌɪnfəˈmeɪʃənəl/, solicitation /səˌlɪsɪˈteɪʃən/, unspecified /ʌnˈspɛ.sɪ.faɪd/, ecosystem /ˈikoʊˌsɪstəm/, cooperate /kəʊˈɒp.ə.ɹeɪt/
Les sons difficiles pour les francophones :
- /h/ — il se souffle, il n’est pas muet: hike /haɪk/, historically /hɪˈstɔɹɪkli/
- /r/ anglais — langue recourbée, sans frotter la gorge: precede /pɹɪˈsid/, strategist /ˈstɹætəd͡ʒɪst/, cooperate /kəʊˈɒp.ə.ɹeɪt/, restrict /ɹɪˈstɹɪkt/, investor /ɪnˈvɛs.tə(ɹ)/
Comment s’entraîner avec cette vidéo
- Écoutez la vidéo en entier une fois sans parler et notez les mots que vous ne connaissez pas.
- Commencez à la vitesse 0,75×, répétez phrase par phrase, puis revenez à la vitesse normale quand cela devient facile.
- Enregistrez-vous et comparez avec l’original, en faisant attention à des mots comme hike, informational, precede.
Qu'est-ce que la technique du Shadowing ?
Le Shadowing est une technique d'apprentissage des langues fondée sur la science, développée à l'origine pour la formation des interprètes professionnels. Le principe est simple mais puissant : vous écoutez de l'anglais natif et le répétez immédiatement à voix haute — comme une ombre suivant le locuteur avec un décalage de 1 à 2 secondes. Les recherches montrent une amélioration significative de la précision de la prononciation, de l'intonation, du rythme, des liaisons, de la compréhension orale et de la fluidité.