Pratique du Shadowing: Fed in July: A Weaker Case for Hiking - Apprendre l'anglais à l'oral avec la vidéo
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Welcome to Thoughts on the Market.
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I'm Matthew Hornbach, Global Head of MacroStrategy.
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And I'm Michael Gapin, Morgan Stanley's Chief U.S.
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Economist.
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Today, will the Fed hold or hike?
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It's the question in the market right now.
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It's Tuesday, July 28th at 9.30 a.m in New York.
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Will the Fed display patience or has it run out of patience?
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That's the question hanging over the July FOMC meeting currently underway.
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We believe the former.
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We expect the Fed to keep the target range for the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.5% to 3.75%.
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The statement will probably also remain unchanged, reiterating the ample reserve policy,
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economic activity expanding at a solid pace despite elevated uncertainty.
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So, Mike, what's your assessment of the situation beyond that?
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Our assessment of the July FOMC meeting is actually the case
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for hikes is not as persuasive now as it was in June.
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And I think when we say that and when we come to the decision the Fed will stay on hold this week,
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we're basing it mainly on the data that has come in since the June FOMC meeting.
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And two important pieces on that front are employment growth moderated.
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So in the June meeting, the three-month average payroll gain was running at about $188,000 per month,
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and I think it gave the sense that the labor market was really accelerating
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and there was downside risk to the unemployment rate.
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The subsequent employment data changed that view.
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Now it looks like there is much less of an acceleration in hiring and momentum has slowed.
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So the labor market doesn't look quite as robust.
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Second, there was a lot of information, we think, a lot of signal, about disinflation.
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So yes, recent volatility in the Middle East did push oil prices temporarily higher.
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We'll see where that goes.
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But underneath the hood, there was significant softness in goods inflation and services inflation, particularly related to housing.
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So we do think that there was a lot of evidence that disinflation is here.
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So with those two things in mind, we think there's less of a case to hike in July than there was in June.
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So we think the right thing, or what we think the Fed will do, is to skip July, try and buy a little more time, get a little more information.
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If disinflation is indeed here, the Fed stays on hold.
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If not, and inflation stays firm, well, they could move to rate hikes later this year.
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But we think the case to hike in July is less compelling than it was in June.
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Well, they certainly will get a lot more information between the July meeting
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and the September meeting if memory serves at least two more rounds of all of the major economic data points,
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payrolls, CPI, and so on.
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That's right.
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The gap between the The July FOMC meeting and the September FOMC meeting is the longest on the Fed's calendar.
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Of course, in part, that makes room for Jackson Hole in August, which if the Fed were moving to a tightening cycle, could be a venue to lay out the case for that.
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But you're right, they will see multiple employment and inflation reports before they meet again in September.
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If they really wanted to get ahead of that data and move at this meeting,
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what is the case for hiking rates in July?
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How would you think about that perspective?
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I think you could make a couple of cases to hike now.
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One is recent volatility
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and conflict in the Middle East has pushed oil prices higher
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maybe it convinces you you're in a prolonged oil risk premium scenario and inflation will not dissipate.
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Second, I think you could argue, well, it's a balance of risks argument, and we think risks have just shifted in the direction of inflation,
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where last year they were in the direction of a weaker labor market.
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We eased last year, let's just reverse those risk management rate cuts this year.
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So it's not about inflation in hand.
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It's about your view of risks around inflation.
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Another, I think, and to me this is the most important one, is maybe Walsh wants a regime change in the reaction function.
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In other words, he emphasizes price stability and achieving the 2% target.
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Well, at some point, words are words and actions are actions, and maybe what he desires is a more hawkish reaction function
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and kind of a higher interest rate all else equal to guide inflation down to 2% more quickly.
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So I think, Matt, if we're wrong this week, I think the main reason we're wrong is I'm thinking under an older reaction function,
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and Warsh is bringing a new one.
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And right now, we don't exactly know what his reaction function is, and he could reveal it this week as being in a
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direction where he really wants to concentrate on the inflation side of the mandate to the exclusion of nearly everything else.
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Well, I don't think that's lost on markets at all.
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In fact, I think
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that the rise in yields we've seen in the bond market
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concentrated in the real yield component of the 10-year Treasury bond
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tells you a lot about how investors are thinking the Fed
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will react to higher energy prices as energy prices have gone up,
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so have bond yields, the relationship between those two asset prices are very strong.
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And usually what that suggests is
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if the real yield is going up more than the break-even inflation rate is going up as energy prices rise,
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it's telling you that investors think the Fed will not look through the rise in energy prices.
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If you have the opposite happen, where your break-even inflation rate is going higher, more so than the real interest rate is going higher,
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that would suggest investors think the Fed will look through the energy price increase.
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That just hasn't been the case.
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And so I think investors are very much attuned to what they think is the right reaction function for the Fed.
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But I guess we'll see.
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Only time will tell.
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And I think in order to help us tell what the right reaction function is,
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we'll need some communication from the Fed and maybe that's where I want to go next with you, is on communication.
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It does seem like there have been fewer FOMC participants speaking to the public since Chairman Warsh began his tenure as chairman. Is that your impression?
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How do you think about communication?
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And since we are in the midst of this FOMC meeting, the press conference, what do you think about press conferences going forward?
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I do think you're right.
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I haven't counted up the literal official FOMC communications.
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I do think there have likely been fewer speeches and or interviews given recently.
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And whether or not that's a function of Kevin Warsh is the chairman or it's summer and things move a little slower, I don't know.
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I will say though that when participants have spoken, I think we're getting the same, say, normal communication that they brought in the past.
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So far, I don't read participants as unwilling to provide their view about the outlook for the economy and for monetary policy.
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On the press conference, boy, would that be a change.
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I've been of the view
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that you probably will not get what I'll call a major change to the SEPs
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or the press conferences in terms of their frequency until the task force on communications has run its course,
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where I think the deadline is ultimately later this year.
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So I don't think the schedule of press conferences will change until 2027, if it changes at all.
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But if we don't have them, the way that I would look at that, Matt, is to say, if the Fed's speaking less,
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there will be a vacuum out there to some degree.
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So if the Fed's giving its view on the outlook and monetary policy less frequently, something else will fill that narrative.
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Whether it's markets or the private sector or whatever it is, vacuums are going to get filled.
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If the Fed's speaking less, somebody else will speak more.
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Maybe that drives volatility more.
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I guess it would depend on the situation.
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But I think polling press conferences would be a major surprise.
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I don't think it's in market expectations, and my belief is it would probably lead to some increase in volatility over time.
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How would you read it?
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Absolutely.
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I think the void has already begun to be filled by investors and how they think about the Fed's reaction function,
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rightly or wrongly, which is why I think we've seen real yields move in a very positively correlated way with energy prices.
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investors are intuiting a certain reaction function to higher energy prices.
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Whether or not that is the correct view, only time will tell.
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And if we do have a press conference at this upcoming meeting, which it looks very likely that we will,
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investors are going to, as they have done now for, really since the press conferences began,
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they're going to pay attention to every nuance, every shift in tonality of the chairman's voice,
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how he chooses to address certain questions versus others,
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or whether he chooses to address questions will certainly be important for market participants
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and how they invest in the bond and the currency markets.
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Well, with that, Mike, thanks again for taking the time to talk.
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I look forward to catching up with you again in late August around the Jackson Hole Symposium.
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Great speaking with you, Matt.
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Thanks for having me on.
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And thanks for listening.
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If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.
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Vocabulaire et conseils d’expression pour cette leçon
Cette leçon d’expression orale de niveau C1 s’appuie sur la vidéo « Fed in July: A Weaker Case for Hiking ». Les mots qui reviennent le plus souvent : inflation, Fed, meeting, price, function. Cette vidéo contient 122 phrases et 1643 mots à répéter en shadowing. La partie parlée dure 10:31. Le locuteur parle à un rythme naturel d’environ 156 mots par minute, proche d’une conversation courante. 84 % des mots font partie des 3 000 mots les plus courants en anglais ; le reste mérite d’être vu avant de commencer.
Vocabulaire clé de cette vidéo
Les 15 mots les plus avancés de la vidéo, avec leur prononciation et leur sens :
| Mot | Prononciation | Sens |
|---|---|---|
| hike nom | /haɪk/ | randonnée |
| investor nom | /ɪnˈvɛs.tə(ɹ)/ | investisseur, investisseuse |
| participant nom | /pɑːɹˈtɪsəpənt/ | participant, participante |
| unchanged adjectif | /ʌnˈt͡ʃeɪnd͡ʒd/ | inchangé |
| payroll nom | /ˈpeɪˌɹəʊl/ | registre de paie, paie |
| outlook nom | /ˈaʊtˌlʊk/ | vue |
| concentrate verbe | /ˈkɑn.sən.tɹeɪt/ | concentrer |
| vacuum nom | /ˈvæ.kjuːm/ | vide, vacuum |
| attune verbe | /əˈt(j)un/ | accorder |
| compel verbe | /kəmˈpɛl/ | contraindre, forcer |
| correlate verbe | /ˈkɔɹəleɪt/ | corréler |
| elevate verbe | /ˈɛləveɪt/ | élever |
| hawkish adjectif | /ˈhɔːkɪʃ/ | bagarreur, batailleur |
| intuit verbe | /ɪnˈtuɪt/ | intuiter |
| nuance nom | /ˈnjuː.ɑːns/ | nuance, détail |
Les verbes à particule que vous entendrez
| Mot | Sens |
|---|---|
| go up verbe | monter, s'élever |
| look forward to verbe | avoir hâte de, attendre avec impatience |
Des phrases à répéter
Des phrases courtes et complètes de la vidéo, à réutiliser dans la conversation de tous les jours :
- We'll see where that goes.
- How would you think about that perspective?
- It's about your view of risks around inflation.
- How do you think about communication?
- How would you read it?
Prononciation à surveiller
Le locuteur utilise 28 contractions et formes réduites, comme don't, we're, I'm. Prononcez-les sous leur forme courte, telles que vous les entendez.
- Les sons « sh » et « zh »: disinflation /ˈdɪsɪnfleɪ̯ʃən/, hawkish /ˈhɔːkɪʃ/, exclusion /ɪksˈkluːʒən/, acceleration /əkˌsɛl.əˈɹeɪ.ʃən/, expectation /ˌɛk.spɛkˈteɪ.ʃən/
- Mots longs — placez bien l’accent: volatility /ˌvɑ.ləˈtɪl.ə.ti/, participant /pɑːɹˈtɪsəpənt/, disinflation /ˈdɪsɪnfleɪ̯ʃən/, reiterate /ɹiːˈɪt.ə.ɹeɪt/, tonality /toʊnˈæl.ɪ.ti/
Les sons difficiles pour les francophones :
- /h/ — il se souffle, il n’est pas muet: hike /haɪk/, hawkish /ˈhɔːkɪʃ/
- /r/ anglais — langue recourbée, sans frotter la gorge: investor /ɪnˈvɛs.tə(ɹ)/, participant /pɑːɹˈtɪsəpənt/, payroll /ˈpeɪˌɹəʊl/, concentrate /ˈkɑn.sən.tɹeɪt/, correlate /ˈkɔɹəleɪt/
- /ŋ/ final — sans prononcer de /g/ après: prolong /pɹoʊˈlɑŋ/, unwilling /ʌnˈwɪlɪŋ/
Comment s’entraîner avec cette vidéo
- Écoutez la vidéo en entier une fois sans parler et notez les mots que vous ne connaissez pas.
- Commencez à la vitesse 0,75×, répétez phrase par phrase, puis revenez à la vitesse normale quand cela devient facile.
- Enregistrez-vous et comparez avec l’original, en faisant attention à des mots comme hike, investor, participant.
Qu'est-ce que la technique du Shadowing ?
Le Shadowing est une technique d'apprentissage des langues fondée sur la science, développée à l'origine pour la formation des interprètes professionnels. Le principe est simple mais puissant : vous écoutez de l'anglais natif et le répétez immédiatement à voix haute — comme une ombre suivant le locuteur avec un décalage de 1 à 2 secondes. Les recherches montrent une amélioration significative de la précision de la prononciation, de l'intonation, du rythme, des liaisons, de la compréhension orale et de la fluidité.