Prática de Shadowing: Fed in July: A Weaker Case for Hiking - Aprenda a falar inglês com vídeo
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Welcome to Thoughts on the Market.
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I'm Matthew Hornbach, Global Head of MacroStrategy.
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And I'm Michael Gapin, Morgan Stanley's Chief U.S.
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Economist.
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Today, will the Fed hold or hike?
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It's the question in the market right now.
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It's Tuesday, July 28th at 9.30 a.m in New York.
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Will the Fed display patience or has it run out of patience?
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That's the question hanging over the July FOMC meeting currently underway.
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We believe the former.
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We expect the Fed to keep the target range for the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.5% to 3.75%.
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The statement will probably also remain unchanged, reiterating the ample reserve policy,
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economic activity expanding at a solid pace despite elevated uncertainty.
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So, Mike, what's your assessment of the situation beyond that?
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Our assessment of the July FOMC meeting is actually the case
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for hikes is not as persuasive now as it was in June.
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And I think when we say that and when we come to the decision the Fed will stay on hold this week,
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we're basing it mainly on the data that has come in since the June FOMC meeting.
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And two important pieces on that front are employment growth moderated.
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So in the June meeting, the three-month average payroll gain was running at about $188,000 per month,
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and I think it gave the sense that the labor market was really accelerating
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and there was downside risk to the unemployment rate.
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The subsequent employment data changed that view.
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Now it looks like there is much less of an acceleration in hiring and momentum has slowed.
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So the labor market doesn't look quite as robust.
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Second, there was a lot of information, we think, a lot of signal, about disinflation.
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So yes, recent volatility in the Middle East did push oil prices temporarily higher.
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We'll see where that goes.
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But underneath the hood, there was significant softness in goods inflation and services inflation, particularly related to housing.
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So we do think that there was a lot of evidence that disinflation is here.
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So with those two things in mind, we think there's less of a case to hike in July than there was in June.
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So we think the right thing, or what we think the Fed will do, is to skip July, try and buy a little more time, get a little more information.
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If disinflation is indeed here, the Fed stays on hold.
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If not, and inflation stays firm, well, they could move to rate hikes later this year.
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But we think the case to hike in July is less compelling than it was in June.
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Well, they certainly will get a lot more information between the July meeting
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and the September meeting if memory serves at least two more rounds of all of the major economic data points,
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payrolls, CPI, and so on.
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That's right.
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The gap between the The July FOMC meeting and the September FOMC meeting is the longest on the Fed's calendar.
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Of course, in part, that makes room for Jackson Hole in August, which if the Fed were moving to a tightening cycle, could be a venue to lay out the case for that.
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But you're right, they will see multiple employment and inflation reports before they meet again in September.
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If they really wanted to get ahead of that data and move at this meeting,
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what is the case for hiking rates in July?
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How would you think about that perspective?
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I think you could make a couple of cases to hike now.
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One is recent volatility
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and conflict in the Middle East has pushed oil prices higher
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maybe it convinces you you're in a prolonged oil risk premium scenario and inflation will not dissipate.
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Second, I think you could argue, well, it's a balance of risks argument, and we think risks have just shifted in the direction of inflation,
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where last year they were in the direction of a weaker labor market.
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We eased last year, let's just reverse those risk management rate cuts this year.
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So it's not about inflation in hand.
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It's about your view of risks around inflation.
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Another, I think, and to me this is the most important one, is maybe Walsh wants a regime change in the reaction function.
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In other words, he emphasizes price stability and achieving the 2% target.
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Well, at some point, words are words and actions are actions, and maybe what he desires is a more hawkish reaction function
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and kind of a higher interest rate all else equal to guide inflation down to 2% more quickly.
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So I think, Matt, if we're wrong this week, I think the main reason we're wrong is I'm thinking under an older reaction function,
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and Warsh is bringing a new one.
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And right now, we don't exactly know what his reaction function is, and he could reveal it this week as being in a
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direction where he really wants to concentrate on the inflation side of the mandate to the exclusion of nearly everything else.
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Well, I don't think that's lost on markets at all.
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In fact, I think
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that the rise in yields we've seen in the bond market
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concentrated in the real yield component of the 10-year Treasury bond
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tells you a lot about how investors are thinking the Fed
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will react to higher energy prices as energy prices have gone up,
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so have bond yields, the relationship between those two asset prices are very strong.
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And usually what that suggests is
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if the real yield is going up more than the break-even inflation rate is going up as energy prices rise,
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it's telling you that investors think the Fed will not look through the rise in energy prices.
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If you have the opposite happen, where your break-even inflation rate is going higher, more so than the real interest rate is going higher,
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that would suggest investors think the Fed will look through the energy price increase.
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That just hasn't been the case.
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And so I think investors are very much attuned to what they think is the right reaction function for the Fed.
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But I guess we'll see.
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Only time will tell.
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And I think in order to help us tell what the right reaction function is,
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we'll need some communication from the Fed and maybe that's where I want to go next with you, is on communication.
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It does seem like there have been fewer FOMC participants speaking to the public since Chairman Warsh began his tenure as chairman. Is that your impression?
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How do you think about communication?
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And since we are in the midst of this FOMC meeting, the press conference, what do you think about press conferences going forward?
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I do think you're right.
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I haven't counted up the literal official FOMC communications.
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I do think there have likely been fewer speeches and or interviews given recently.
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And whether or not that's a function of Kevin Warsh is the chairman or it's summer and things move a little slower, I don't know.
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I will say though that when participants have spoken, I think we're getting the same, say, normal communication that they brought in the past.
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So far, I don't read participants as unwilling to provide their view about the outlook for the economy and for monetary policy.
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On the press conference, boy, would that be a change.
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I've been of the view
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that you probably will not get what I'll call a major change to the SEPs
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or the press conferences in terms of their frequency until the task force on communications has run its course,
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where I think the deadline is ultimately later this year.
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So I don't think the schedule of press conferences will change until 2027, if it changes at all.
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But if we don't have them, the way that I would look at that, Matt, is to say, if the Fed's speaking less,
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there will be a vacuum out there to some degree.
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So if the Fed's giving its view on the outlook and monetary policy less frequently, something else will fill that narrative.
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Whether it's markets or the private sector or whatever it is, vacuums are going to get filled.
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If the Fed's speaking less, somebody else will speak more.
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Maybe that drives volatility more.
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I guess it would depend on the situation.
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But I think polling press conferences would be a major surprise.
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I don't think it's in market expectations, and my belief is it would probably lead to some increase in volatility over time.
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How would you read it?
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Absolutely.
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I think the void has already begun to be filled by investors and how they think about the Fed's reaction function,
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rightly or wrongly, which is why I think we've seen real yields move in a very positively correlated way with energy prices.
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investors are intuiting a certain reaction function to higher energy prices.
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Whether or not that is the correct view, only time will tell.
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And if we do have a press conference at this upcoming meeting, which it looks very likely that we will,
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investors are going to, as they have done now for, really since the press conferences began,
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they're going to pay attention to every nuance, every shift in tonality of the chairman's voice,
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how he chooses to address certain questions versus others,
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or whether he chooses to address questions will certainly be important for market participants
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and how they invest in the bond and the currency markets.
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Well, with that, Mike, thanks again for taking the time to talk.
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I look forward to catching up with you again in late August around the Jackson Hole Symposium.
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Great speaking with you, Matt.
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Thanks for having me on.
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And thanks for listening.
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If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.
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Vocabulário e dicas de fala para esta lição
Esta aula de conversação de nível C1 usa o vídeo “Fed in July: A Weaker Case for Hiking”. As palavras que mais se repetem: inflation, Fed, meeting, price, function. Este vídeo tem 122 frases e 1643 palavras para praticar shadowing. A fala dura 10:31. O falante fala em ritmo natural, cerca de 156 palavras por minuto, próximo de uma conversa do dia a dia. 84% das palavras estão entre as 3.000 mais comuns do inglês; vale a pena estudar o restante antes de começar.
Vocabulário principal deste vídeo
As 15 palavras mais avançadas do vídeo, com pronúncia e significado:
| Palavra | Pronúncia | Significado |
|---|---|---|
| hike substantivo | /haɪk/ | caminhada, passeio |
| investor substantivo | /ɪnˈvɛs.tə(ɹ)/ | investidor |
| volatility substantivo | /ˌvɑ.ləˈtɪl.ə.ti/ | volatilidade |
| participant substantivo | /pɑːɹˈtɪsəpənt/ | participante |
| outlook substantivo | /ˈaʊtˌlʊk/ | perspectiva |
| concentrate verbo | /ˈkɑn.sən.tɹeɪt/ | concentrar |
| vacuum substantivo | /ˈvæ.kjuːm/ | vácuo |
| compel verbo | /kəmˈpɛl/ | forçar, obrigar |
| correlate verbo | /ˈkɔɹəleɪt/ | correlacionar, correlatar |
| elevate verbo | /ˈɛləveɪt/ | elevar |
| intuit verbo | /ɪnˈtuɪt/ | intuir |
| nuance substantivo | /ˈnjuː.ɑːns/ | nuance, nuança |
| persuasive adjetivo | /pə(ɹ)ˈsweɪsɪv/ | persuasivo, persuasível |
| prolong verbo | /pɹoʊˈlɑŋ/ | prolongar |
| reiterate verbo | /ɹiːˈɪt.ə.ɹeɪt/ | reiterar |
Phrasal verbs que você vai ouvir
| Palavra | Significado |
|---|---|
| go up verbo | subir |
| going forward advérbio | doravante, daqui em diante |
| look forward to verbo | ansiar por, estar ansioso para |
Frases que vale a pena repetir
Frases curtas e completas do vídeo que você pode usar na conversa do dia a dia:
- We'll see where that goes.
- How would you think about that perspective?
- It's about your view of risks around inflation.
- How do you think about communication?
- How would you read it?
Pronúncia para ficar de olho
O falante usa 28 contrações e formas reduzidas, como don't, we're, I'm. Diga-as na forma curta, do jeito que você ouve.
- Os sons de “sh” e “zh”: disinflation /ˈdɪsɪnfleɪ̯ʃən/, hawkish /ˈhɔːkɪʃ/, exclusion /ɪksˈkluːʒən/, acceleration /əkˌsɛl.əˈɹeɪ.ʃən/, expectation /ˌɛk.spɛkˈteɪ.ʃən/
- Palavras longas — acerte a sílaba tônica: volatility /ˌvɑ.ləˈtɪl.ə.ti/, participant /pɑːɹˈtɪsəpənt/, disinflation /ˈdɪsɪnfleɪ̯ʃən/, reiterate /ɹiːˈɪt.ə.ɹeɪt/, tonality /toʊnˈæl.ɪ.ti/
Sons difíceis para falantes de português:
- Consoante final — sem acrescentar um “i” depois: hike /haɪk/, participant /pɑːɹˈtɪsəpənt/, unchanged /ʌnˈt͡ʃeɪnd͡ʒd/, outlook /ˈaʊtˌlʊk/, concentrate /ˈkɑn.sən.tɹeɪt/
- /l/ final — a língua toca o céu da boca, não vira “u”: payroll /ˈpeɪˌɹəʊl/, compel /kəmˈpɛl/, ample /ˈæm.pəl/, literal /ˈlɪt(ə)ɹəl/
- /h/ — um sopro suave, diferente do “r”: hike /haɪk/, hawkish /ˈhɔːkɪʃ/
Como praticar com este vídeo
- Ouça o vídeo inteiro uma vez sem falar e anote as palavras que você não conhece.
- Comece na velocidade 0,75×, faça shadowing frase por frase e volte à velocidade normal quando ficar fácil.
- Grave a sua voz e compare com o original, prestando atenção a palavras como hike, investor, volatility.
O que é a Técnica de Shadowing?
Shadowing é uma técnica de aprendizado de idiomas com base científica, originalmente desenvolvida para o treinamento de intérpretes profissionais. O método é simples, mas poderoso: você ouve áudio em inglês nativo e repete imediatamente em voz alta — como uma sombra seguindo o falante com 1-2 segundos de atraso. Pesquisas mostram melhora significativa na precisão da pronúncia, entonação, ritmo, sons conectados, compreensão auditiva e fluência na fala.