Shadowing Practice: How Long Can the Fed Hold On? - Learn English Speaking with Video
Ders oluşturuluyor...
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Welcome to Thoughts on the Market.
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I'm Andrew Sheets, Global Head of Fixed Income Research at Morgan Stanley.
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Today, can the Fed hold the line?
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It's Wednesday, August 5th at 2 p.m in London.
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The Federal Reserve has a difficult job.
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The U.S economy is a complex and varied ecosystem that covers everything from brain surgery to your burger order.
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The Fed is asked to keep prices stable and people employed using, for the most part, just one simple tool,
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a short-term interest rate, and without any control over what government policy or global events might bring.
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Currently, the Fed probably feels pretty good about its success with one half of this in the job market, given that the unemployment rate is near historical lows.
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But it probably feels less successful about price stability.
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Over the last five years, overall prices in the U.S economy have risen over 20% based on the Fed's preferred inflation measure.
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That's roughly double the increase that a goal of 2% annual inflation would otherwise bring.
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Into this complexity steps a new Fed chair, Kevin Warsh.
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He has emphasized two changes for his tenure.
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First, that inflation is too high and needs to come down.
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And second, that the Fed has historically communicated too much with the market, which Chair Warsh thinks has helped contribute to investors potentially taking too much risk,
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while also restricting the Fed's options to act.
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What markets are now processing is a potential tension between these two goals.
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After all, high inflation is an immediate issue.
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In a world where the Fed is hoping to keep price increases at about 2% per year, their preferred measure, PCE inflation,
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is rising more than 3% on an annualized basis over the last 3, 6, and 12 months.
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In the latest ISM manufacturing survey, measure of price increases among manufacturers is well above normal.
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In the face of that, one option for the Fed to combat this inflation would have been to raise interest rates.
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It didn't do that.
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Another would be to suggest that it was very close to taking action and likely to move soon.
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It didn't do that either.
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Indeed, our economists think that the market took Chair Warsh's lack of guidance
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and action at the most recent Fed's meeting to suggest a pretty high bar for rate hikes,
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and even the potential to redefine the Fed's 2% inflation target in favor of something more general and unspecified.
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The result was a market reaction that would suggest less focus on inflation.
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The prospects for rate hikes were reduced, the yield curve steepened, led by a sell-off of long-end yields, measures of expected inflation rose, and the U.S dollar weakened.
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In the days since, markets have settled a bit.
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But the result is going to be a market that is now going to be much more sensitive to incoming inflation data.
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If that inflation data moderates in the second half of this year, as we at Morgan Stanley expect, then the Fed's approach could look justified,
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as the data suggests that neither action nor more communication about what they're going to do is necessary.
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But if inflation doesn't cooperate, the challenge becomes immediate.
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Christopher Waller, another member of the Fed, recently said that, quote, sternly staring at inflation until it melts before our withering gaze is not an option.
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The market will expect action and expect a framework explaining that action.
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Until that point, our rate strategists think that yield curves will continue to steep it.
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Thank you, as always, for your time.
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If you find Thoughts of the Market useful, let us know by leaving a review wherever you listen, and also tell a friend or colleague about us today.
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The preceding content is informational only and based on information available when created.
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It is not an offer or solicitation, nor is it tax or legal advice.
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It does not consider your financial circumstances and objectives and may not be suitable for you.
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Bu dersin kelimeleri ve konuşma notları
Bu C1 seviyesindeki konuşma dersi “How Long Can the Fed Hold On?” videosuna dayanıyor. En çok tekrarlanan kelimeler: inflation, Fed, rate, price, action. Bu videoda gölgeleme çalışması için 44 cümle ve 661 kelime var. Konuşma bölümü 3:52 sürüyor. Konuşmacı dakikada yaklaşık 171 kelimeyle, günlük konuşmaya yakın doğal bir hızda konuşuyor. Kelimelerin %82’i İngilizcede en sık kullanılan 3.000 kelime arasında; geri kalanına başlamadan önce bakmakta fayda var.
Bu videodaki önemli kelimeler
Videodaki en ileri düzey 15 kelime, telaffuzu ve anlamıyla:
| Kelime | Telaffuz | Anlam |
|---|---|---|
| precede fiil | /pɹɪˈsid/ | önce gelmek, önce gitmek |
| weaken fiil | /ˈwikən/ | dayanıksızlaştırmak, güçsüzleştirmek |
| wither fiil | /ˈwɪðɚ/ | solmak, kurumak |
| circumstance isim | /ˈsɝ.kəmˌstæns/ | durum, hâl |
| emphasize fiil | /ˈɛm.fə.saɪz/ | vurgulamak |
| ecosystem isim | /ˈikoʊˌsɪstəm/ | ekosistem |
| cooperate fiil | /kəʊˈɒp.ə.ɹeɪt/ | işbirliği yapmak |
| restrict fiil | /ɹɪˈstɹɪkt/ | sınırlamak, kısıtlamak |
| economist isim | /iˈkɑ.nə.mɪst/ | ekonomist, iktisatçı |
| stare fiil | /stɛɚ/ | dik dik bakmak, gözünü dikmek |
| melt fiil | /mɛlt/ | erimek |
| investor isim | /ɪnˈvɛs.tə(ɹ)/ | yatırımcı, sermayedar |
| colleague isim | /ˈkɒliːɡ/ | çalışma arkadaşı, meslektaş |
| steep sıfat | /stiːp/ | dik |
| complexity isim | /kəmˈplɛk.sɪ.ti/ | karmaşıklık |
Duyacağınız deyimsel fiiller
| Kelime | Anlam |
|---|---|
| come down fiil | düşmek |
Bu videodaki dil bilgisi
Konuşmacının en çok kullandığı yapılar, videodaki sözcüklerin aynısıyla:
| Yapı | Videoda |
|---|---|
| Present perfect have/has + fiilin üçüncü hâli — geçmişte olan ama şimdi de önemli olan bir eylem | have risen · has emphasized · has helped |
| Edilgen yapı be + fiilin üçüncü hâli — kimin yaptığı değil, ne olduğu önemli | is asked · were reduced |
Dikkat edilecek telaffuzlar
Konuşmacı didn't, doesn't, I'm gibi kısaltılmış biçimleri 5 kez kullanıyor. Bunları duyduğunuz gibi kısa söyleyin.
- “sh” ve “zh” sesleri: informational /ˌɪnfəˈmeɪʃənəl/, solicitation /səˌlɪsɪˈteɪʃən/
- Uzun kelimeler — vurguyu doğru yere koyun: informational /ˌɪnfəˈmeɪʃənəl/, solicitation /səˌlɪsɪˈteɪʃən/, unspecified /ʌnˈspɛ.sɪ.faɪd/, ecosystem /ˈikoʊˌsɪstəm/, cooperate /kəʊˈɒp.ə.ɹeɪt/
Türkçe konuşanların zorlandığı sesler:
- /w/ — dudaklar yuvarlak, /v/ değil: weaken /ˈwikən/, wither /ˈwɪðɚ/
- Kelime başındaki ünsüz kümesi — araya ünlü eklemeyin: precede /pɹɪˈsid/, steepen /ˈstiː.pən/, sternly /ˈstɝnli/, strategist /ˈstɹætəd͡ʒɪst/, stare /stɛɚ/
- /æ/ — “e”den daha açık: strategist /ˈstɹætəd͡ʒɪst/, circumstance /ˈsɝ.kəmˌstæns/
Bu videoyla nasıl çalışılır
- Videonun tamamını konuşmadan bir kez dinleyin ve bilmediğiniz kelimeleri not edin.
- 0,75× hızla başlayın, cümle cümle tekrar edin ve kolaylaşınca normal hıza dönün.
- Kendinizi kaydedin ve orijinaliyle karşılaştırın; precede, weaken, wither gibi kelimelere özellikle dikkat edin.
Gölgeleme Tekniği Nedir?
Gölgeleme, başlangıçta profesyonel tercüman eğitimi için geliştirilen ve çok dilli Dr. Alexander Arguelles tarafından popüler hale getirilen, bilim destekli bir dil öğrenme tekniğidir. Yöntem basit ama güçlüdür: ana dili İngilizce olan bir sesi dinler ve hemen yüksek sesle tekrar edersiniz — konuşmacıyı 1-2 saniye gecikmeyle takip eden bir gölge gibi. Pasif dinleme veya dilbilgisi alıştırmalarının aksine, gölgeleme beyninizi ve ağız kaslarınızı gerçek konuşma kalıplarını eşzamanlı olarak işlemeye ve yeniden üretmeye zorlar. Araştırmalar, telaffuz doğruluğu, tonlama, ritim, bağlı konuşma, dinleme anlama ve konuşma akıcılığını önemli ölçüde geliştirdiğini göstermektedir — bu da onu IELTS Konuşma hazırlığı ve gerçek dünya İngilizce iletişimi için en etkili yöntemlerden biri yapar.