跟讀練習: How Long Can the Fed Hold On? - 通過影片學習英語口語
選擇練習模式
每種模式都會開啟全屏練習室。
44 句
如果句子過短或過長，請點選 Edit 進行調整。
1
Welcome to Thoughts on the Market.
歡迎收聽《市場雜談》。
2
I'm Andrew Sheets, Global Head of Fixed Income Research at Morgan Stanley.
我是摩根士丹利全球固定收益研究主管安德魯·希茨。
3
Today, can the Fed hold the line?
今天，美聯儲能否堅守立場？
4
It's Wednesday, August 5th at 2 p.m in London.
現在是倫敦時間8月5日星期三下午2點。
5
The Federal Reserve has a difficult job.
美聯儲的工作十分艱鉅。
6
The U.S economy is a complex and varied ecosystem that covers everything from brain surgery to your burger order.
美國經濟是一個複雜多樣的生態系統，涵蓋了從腦部手術到你點的漢堡的方方面面。
7
The Fed is asked to keep prices stable and people employed using, for the most part, just one simple tool,
美聯儲被要求在很大程度上僅依靠一種簡單的工具來維持物價穩定和促進就業。
8
a short-term interest rate, and without any control over what government policy or global events might bring.
短期利率，而且完全無法控制政府政策或全球事件可能帶來的影響。
9
Currently, the Fed probably feels pretty good about its success with one half of this in the job market, given that the unemployment rate is near historical lows.
目前，鑑於失業率接近歷史低點，美聯儲可能對其在就業市場這一半任務上取得的成功感到相當滿意。
10
But it probably feels less successful about price stability.
但它在物價穩定方面可能感覺成效沒那麼顯著。
11
Over the last five years, overall prices in the U.S economy have risen over 20% based on the Fed's preferred inflation measure.
過去五年，根據美聯儲偏好的通脹指標，美國經濟的整體物價水平已上漲超過20%。
12
That's roughly double the increase that a goal of 2% annual inflation would otherwise bring.
這一增幅大約是2%年通脹目標原本會帶來的增幅的兩倍。
13
Into this complexity steps a new Fed chair, Kevin Warsh.
在這錯綜複雜的局勢中，一位新任美聯儲主席凱文·沃什走馬上任。
14
He has emphasized two changes for his tenure.
他強調了自己任期內的兩項變革。
15
First, that inflation is too high and needs to come down.
首先，通脹水平過高，需要回落。
16
And second, that the Fed has historically communicated too much with the market, which Chair Warsh thinks has helped contribute to investors potentially taking too much risk,
其次，美聯儲歷史上與市場溝通過於頻繁，沃什主席認為這可能導致投資者承擔了過多風險。
17
while also restricting the Fed's options to act.
同時也限制了美聯儲採取行動的選擇空間。
18
What markets are now processing is a potential tension between these two goals.
當前市場正在消化這兩個目標之間可能存在的緊張關係。
19
After all, high inflation is an immediate issue.
畢竟，高通脹是一個迫在眉睫的問題。
20
In a world where the Fed is hoping to keep price increases at about 2% per year, their preferred measure, PCE inflation,
在一個美聯儲希望將年度物價漲幅維持在約2%的世界裡，他們偏好的衡量指標PCE通脹率，
21
is rising more than 3% on an annualized basis over the last 3, 6, and 12 months.
過去3個月、6個月和12個月的年化增長率均超過3%。
22
In the latest ISM manufacturing survey, measure of price increases among manufacturers is well above normal.
最新的ISM製造業調查顯示，製造商的物價上漲水平遠高於正常水平。
23
In the face of that, one option for the Fed to combat this inflation would have been to raise interest rates.
面對這種情況，美聯儲應對通脹的一個選擇本可以是加息。
24
It didn't do that.
它沒有那樣做。
25
Another would be to suggest that it was very close to taking action and likely to move soon.
另一種解讀是暗示該機構已非常接近採取行動，且很可能很快就會有所動作。
26
It didn't do that either.
它也沒有那樣做。
27
Indeed, our economists think that the market took Chair Warsh's lack of guidance
事實上，我們的經濟學家認為，市場將沃什主席未給出明確指引的情況
28
and action at the most recent Fed's meeting to suggest a pretty high bar for rate hikes,
以及美聯儲最近一次會議上的行動都表明，加息的門檻相當高。
29
and even the potential to redefine the Fed's 2% inflation target in favor of something more general and unspecified.
甚至有可能重新定義美聯儲2%的通脹目標，轉而採用更寬泛、更不明確的標準。
30
The result was a market reaction that would suggest less focus on inflation.
結果是市場反應表明，人們對通脹的關注有所減弱。
31
The prospects for rate hikes were reduced, the yield curve steepened, led by a sell-off of long-end yields, measures of expected inflation rose, and the U.S dollar weakened.
加息預期降溫，長端收益率遭拋售帶動收益率曲線趨陡，通脹預期指標上升，美元走弱。
32
In the days since, markets have settled a bit.
自那以後的幾天裡，市場已經有所企穩。
33
But the result is going to be a market that is now going to be much more sensitive to incoming inflation data.
但結果是，如今市場對即將公佈的通脹資料將會變得敏感得多。
34
If that inflation data moderates in the second half of this year, as we at Morgan Stanley expect, then the Fed's approach could look justified,
如果通脹資料在今年下半年如摩根士丹利所預期的那樣有所緩和，那麼美聯儲的做法可能會被證明是合理的。
35
as the data suggests that neither action nor more communication about what they're going to do is necessary.
因為資料表明，既不需要採取行動，也不需要就他們將要採取的措施進行更多溝通。
36
But if inflation doesn't cooperate, the challenge becomes immediate.
但如果通脹未能回落，挑戰就會迫在眉睫。
37
Christopher Waller, another member of the Fed, recently said that, quote, sternly staring at inflation until it melts before our withering gaze is not an option.
美聯儲另一位成員克里斯托弗·沃勒最近表示，“緊盯著通脹、指望它在我們銳利的目光下自行消散，這種做法是行不通的。”
38
The market will expect action and expect a framework explaining that action.
市場將期待看到行動，並期待有一個框架來解釋這些行動。
39
Until that point, our rate strategists think that yield curves will continue to steep it.
在此之前，我們的利率策略師認為收益率曲線將繼續趨陡。
40
Thank you, as always, for your time.
一如既往地感謝您抽出時間。
41
If you find Thoughts of the Market useful, let us know by leaving a review wherever you listen, and also tell a friend or colleague about us today.
如果您覺得《市場思考》對您有幫助，請在您收聽節目的平臺上留下評論告訴我們，也歡迎今天就把我們推薦給您的朋友或同事。
42
The preceding content is informational only and based on information available when created.
以上內容僅供參考，基於創作時可獲取的資訊編制。
43
It is not an offer or solicitation, nor is it tax or legal advice.
44
It does not consider your financial circumstances and objectives and may not be suitable for you.
同頻道
FOR YOU
推薦影片
C1447 句
FOMC Press Conference, October 28, 2026
Daily ConversationUniversity StudentsWorking Adults
B21
158 句
Bonds Were Supposed to Crash the Market. Why Haven’t They?
Business EnglishDaily ConversationUniversity Students
B23
258 句
The Inflation Problem... It's Worse Than You Think
Business EnglishDaily ConversationUniversity Students
B23
301 句
Watch CNBC's full interview with former Secretary of State Antony Blinken
Business EnglishDaily ConversationUniversity Students
C11
64 句
Don't think Fed should be hiking here, says 3Fourteen's Warren Pies
Daily ConversationWorking Adults
C135
11 句
The Federal Funds Rate Explained in One Minute: Federal Reserve Interest Rate Superpower or Threat?
Daily ConversationUniversity StudentsWorking Adults
C15
146 句
Can the Tech Surge Continue?
Business EnglishDaily ConversationUniversity Students
C13
284 句
Does Rent Control ACTUALLY Work? Obama’s Chief Economist Breaks it Down | The Brief
Business EnglishDaily ConversationUniversity Students
C13
892 句
Leading in a Time of Change: Jamie Dimon, Chairman and CEO, JP Morgan Chase
Business EnglishUniversity StudentsWorking Adults
C1137 句
President Lagarde presents the latest monetary policy decisions – 10 September 2026
Daily ConversationUniversity StudentsWorking Adults
C13
176 句
Is Amazon Too Big?
Business EnglishDaily ConversationUniversity Students
為什麼這個影片是絕佳的口語練習素材？
想通過看YouTube學英語還能順便提升口語？這個影片太適合了！它的內容圍繞美聯儲政策展開，用詞專業但表達清晰，語速適中，非常適合練習雅思口語練習或日常英語口語。影片裡的對話邏輯嚴謹，包含大量實用的經濟類詞彙，同時句子結構豐富，從簡單句到複合句都有，能幫你快速熟悉自然的英語表達節奏，是影子跟讀法（shadowing）的好材料。
拆解地道表達，輕鬆學發音
我們來看看影片裡的幾個自然表達，幫你提高英語發音和口語流暢度：
- “The U.S economy is a complex and varied ecosystem” 這句話中，“complex and varied”連讀自然，“ecosystem”的重音在第一個音節，模仿時注意語調的起伏，能讓你的表達更有層次感。
- “the Fed has historically communicated too much with the market” 這裡“communicated too much”的弱讀處理很巧妙，“too”的發音較輕，避免生硬，體現口語的自然感。
- “sternly staring at inflation until it melts before our withering gaze” 這句的節奏明快，“sternly staring”和“withering gaze”的爆破音發音要清晰，同時注意整體的流暢性，適合練習連讀和重音。
簡單高效的影子跟讀法練習流程
利用這個影片做英語口語練習，試試以下步驟：首先，找到一個合適的shadowing site，播放影片片段（每次10-15秒），仔細聽並記住內容；然後，暫停影片，立即跟讀，儘量模仿發音、語調甚至語速；最後，用手機錄音，對比自己和原音的差異，重點糾正發音和節奏。重複這個過程，每天練習15分鐘，一週就能感受到進步！這種方法不僅能提升聽力，還能讓你的口語更地道，特別適合雅思口語練習。
別再猶豫啦，現在就開啟影片，開始你的影子跟讀法練習吧，讓你的英語發音和口語流暢度快速提升！
影片中的語法
說話人最常用的結構，並附上影片中的原話：
| 結構 | 影片中的用法 |
|---|---|
| 現在完成時 have/has + 過去分詞 — 過去發生但與現在仍有關聯的事 | have risen · has emphasized · has helped |
| 被動語態 be + 過去分詞 — 強調發生了什麼，而不是誰做的 | is asked · were reduced |
什麼是跟讀法？
跟讀法 (Shadowing) 是一種有科學依據的語言學習技巧，最初開發用於專業口譯員的培訓，並由多語言者Alexander Arguelles博士普及。這個方法簡單而強大：您在聽英語母語原聲的同時立即大聲重複——就像是一個延遲1-2秒緊跟說話者的影子。與被動聽力或語法練習不同，跟讀法強迫您的大腦和口腔肌肉同時處理並模模擬實的講話模式。研究表明它能顯著提高發音準確性，語調，節奏，連讀，聽力理解和口語流利度——使其成為雅思口語備考和真實英語交流最有效的方法之一。