Shadowing Practice: How Long Can the Fed Hold On? - Learn English Speaking with Video
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Welcome to Thoughts on the Market.
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I'm Andrew Sheets, Global Head of Fixed Income Research at Morgan Stanley.
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Today, can the Fed hold the line?
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It's Wednesday, August 5th at 2 p.m in London.
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The Federal Reserve has a difficult job.
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The U.S economy is a complex and varied ecosystem that covers everything from brain surgery to your burger order.
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The Fed is asked to keep prices stable and people employed using, for the most part, just one simple tool,
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a short-term interest rate, and without any control over what government policy or global events might bring.
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Currently, the Fed probably feels pretty good about its success with one half of this in the job market, given that the unemployment rate is near historical lows.
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But it probably feels less successful about price stability.
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Over the last five years, overall prices in the U.S economy have risen over 20% based on the Fed's preferred inflation measure.
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That's roughly double the increase that a goal of 2% annual inflation would otherwise bring.
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Into this complexity steps a new Fed chair, Kevin Warsh.
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He has emphasized two changes for his tenure.
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First, that inflation is too high and needs to come down.
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And second, that the Fed has historically communicated too much with the market, which Chair Warsh thinks has helped contribute to investors potentially taking too much risk,
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while also restricting the Fed's options to act.
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What markets are now processing is a potential tension between these two goals.
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After all, high inflation is an immediate issue.
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In a world where the Fed is hoping to keep price increases at about 2% per year, their preferred measure, PCE inflation,
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is rising more than 3% on an annualized basis over the last 3, 6, and 12 months.
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In the latest ISM manufacturing survey, measure of price increases among manufacturers is well above normal.
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In the face of that, one option for the Fed to combat this inflation would have been to raise interest rates.
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It didn't do that.
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Another would be to suggest that it was very close to taking action and likely to move soon.
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It didn't do that either.
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Indeed, our economists think that the market took Chair Warsh's lack of guidance
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and action at the most recent Fed's meeting to suggest a pretty high bar for rate hikes,
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and even the potential to redefine the Fed's 2% inflation target in favor of something more general and unspecified.
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The result was a market reaction that would suggest less focus on inflation.
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The prospects for rate hikes were reduced, the yield curve steepened, led by a sell-off of long-end yields, measures of expected inflation rose, and the U.S dollar weakened.
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In the days since, markets have settled a bit.
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But the result is going to be a market that is now going to be much more sensitive to incoming inflation data.
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If that inflation data moderates in the second half of this year, as we at Morgan Stanley expect, then the Fed's approach could look justified,
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as the data suggests that neither action nor more communication about what they're going to do is necessary.
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But if inflation doesn't cooperate, the challenge becomes immediate.
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Christopher Waller, another member of the Fed, recently said that, quote, sternly staring at inflation until it melts before our withering gaze is not an option.
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The market will expect action and expect a framework explaining that action.
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Until that point, our rate strategists think that yield curves will continue to steep it.
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Thank you, as always, for your time.
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If you find Thoughts of the Market useful, let us know by leaving a review wherever you listen, and also tell a friend or colleague about us today.
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The preceding content is informational only and based on information available when created.
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It is not an offer or solicitation, nor is it tax or legal advice.
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It does not consider your financial circumstances and objectives and may not be suitable for you.
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Vocabulario y notas de pronunciación para esta lección
Esta lección de conversación de nivel C1 se basa en el vídeo “How Long Can the Fed Hold On?”. Las palabras que más se repiten: inflation, Fed, rate, price, action. Este vídeo tiene 44 frases y 661 palabras para practicar shadowing. La parte hablada dura 3:52. El hablante habla a un ritmo natural de unas 171 palabras por minuto, cercano a una conversación cotidiana. El 82 % de las palabras está entre las 3.000 más comunes del inglés; conviene repasar el resto antes de empezar.
Vocabulario clave de este vídeo
Las 15 palabras más avanzadas del vídeo, con su pronunciación y significado:
| Palabra | Pronunciación | Significado |
|---|---|---|
| hike sustantivo | /haɪk/ | caminata |
| precede verbo | /pɹɪˈsid/ | preceder, antepasar (desus.) |
| solicitation sustantivo | /səˌlɪsɪˈteɪʃən/ | solicitación |
| strategist sustantivo | /ˈstɹætəd͡ʒɪst/ | estratega |
| weaken verbo | /ˈwikən/ | debilitar, languir |
| wither verbo | /ˈwɪðɚ/ | marchitarse, ajarse |
| circumstance sustantivo | /ˈsɝ.kəmˌstæns/ | circunstancia, tesitura |
| emphasize verbo | /ˈɛm.fə.saɪz/ | enfatizar, hacer hincapié |
| gaze verbo | /ɡeɪz/ | observar |
| ecosystem sustantivo | /ˈikoʊˌsɪstəm/ | ecosistema |
| cooperate verbo | /kəʊˈɒp.ə.ɹeɪt/ | cooperar |
| restrict verbo | /ɹɪˈstɹɪkt/ | restringir, cortapisar |
| economist sustantivo | /iˈkɑ.nə.mɪst/ | economista |
| stare verbo | /stɛɚ/ | mirar fijamente, quedarse mirando |
| tenure sustantivo | /ˈtɛn.jʊə/ | tenencia |
Gramática en este vídeo
Las estructuras que más usa el hablante, con las palabras exactas del vídeo:
| Estructura | En el vídeo |
|---|---|
| Present perfect have/has + participio pasado — una acción pasada que sigue importando ahora | have risen · has emphasized · has helped |
| Voz pasiva be + participio pasado — importa lo que ocurre, no quién lo hace | is asked · were reduced |
Pronunciación a tener en cuenta
El hablante usa 5 contracciones y formas reducidas, como didn't, doesn't, I'm. Dilas en su forma corta, tal como las oyes.
- Los sonidos de “sh” y “zh”: informational /ˌɪnfəˈmeɪʃənəl/, solicitation /səˌlɪsɪˈteɪʃən/
- Palabras largas — cuida el acento: informational /ˌɪnfəˈmeɪʃənəl/, solicitation /səˌlɪsɪˈteɪʃən/, unspecified /ʌnˈspɛ.sɪ.faɪd/, ecosystem /ˈikoʊˌsɪstəm/, cooperate /kəʊˈɒp.ə.ɹeɪt/
Sonidos difíciles para hispanohablantes:
- s + consonante al inicio — sin añadir una “e” delante: steepen /ˈstiː.pən/, sternly /ˈstɝnli/, strategist /ˈstɹætəd͡ʒɪst/, stare /stɛɚ/, steep /stiːp/
- /z/ — sonora, no /s/: emphasize /ˈɛm.fə.saɪz/, gaze /ɡeɪz/
- /h/ — una aspiración suave, no la “j”: hike /haɪk/, historically /hɪˈstɔɹɪkli/
Cómo practicar con este vídeo
- Escucha el vídeo entero una vez sin hablar y anota las palabras que no conoces.
- Empieza a velocidad 0,75×, haz shadowing frase por frase y vuelve a la velocidad normal cuando te resulte fácil.
- Grábate y compara con el original, prestando atención a palabras como hike, precede, solicitation.
¿Qué es la Técnica de Shadowing?
Shadowing es una técnica de aprendizaje de idiomas respaldada por la ciencia, desarrollada originalmente para la formación de intérpretes profesionales y popularizada por el políglota Dr. Alexander Arguelles. El método es simple pero poderoso: escuchas audio en inglés nativo y lo repites en voz alta de inmediato, como una sombra que sigue al hablante con solo 1-2 segundos de retraso. A diferencia de la escucha pasiva o los ejercicios de gramática, el shadowing obliga a tu cerebro y músculos de la boca a procesar y reproducir simultáneamente patrones de habla reales. Las investigaciones muestran que mejora significativamente la precisión de la pronunciación, la entonación, el ritmo, el habla conectada, la comprensión auditiva y la fluidez al hablar, convirtiéndola en una de las metodologías más efectivas para la preparación del IELTS Speaking y la comunicación en inglés en el mundo real.