Практика Shadowing: Something weird is happening in Indonesia… - Изучайте разговорный английский по видео

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A few weeks ago, police raided a house in Jakarta.

Inside, they found 74 kilos of gold bars and 26 million dollars in cash.

Nice.

The owner?

The top anti -corruption prosecutor of Indonesia.

The guy whose job is catching dirty money.

Now, corruption stories come out of a lot of countries.

Usually, nobody cares.

But not this time.

Because this raid landed in the middle of something much bigger.

Indonesia's currency has crashed to its weakest level ever.

The stock market is down 26%, one of the worst in Asia, and billions of dollars are leaving the country.

From foreign funds and from Indonesians who don't trust their own system anymore.

The government's answer is well, quite a surprise.

They are locking the doors so the money can't get out.

In this video, I'll show you what's really happening in Indonesia

and why the people who know this country the best are the ones panicking the most.

My name is Bertrand.

I've been doing business in Asia for 26 years.

I'm not guessing how things work here.

I deal with them every week.

That's why I created this channel to share my perspective from the inside.

If that's useful to you, subscribe.

For 20 years, Indonesia has been the silent overachiever of Asia.

Growth around 5 % almost every single year with a regularity that most governments would kill for.

And it did it without the usual emerging market roller coaster.

No default, no IMF drama since the 90s.

Just the same steady number year in year out.

It's the fourth biggest population on earth, 280 million people.

Most of them are young enough that the country's best years are still ahead of it.

Adjust for purchasing power and Indonesia is already the seven largest economy in the world, bigger than France.

Most people have no idea.

And the country sits on 42 % of the world's nickel reserves the metal inside every EV battery.

For decades, Indonesia did what poor countries always do.

Dig the ore, ship it raw, watch someone else capture the profit.

But in 2020, it stopped.

The export of raw nickel ore got banned.

You want Indonesian nickel?

Then you build in Indonesia and you hire Indonesians to do it.

Every consultant say this will scare investors away.

Instead, billions flooded in.

Funds trusted this country with their money because of the discipline.

The 1998 crisis nearly killed Indonesia.

Out of that trauma, the country wrote itself a rule.

The budget deficit stays under 3 % of GDP.

It's not a promise, it's a law.

Every government respected it for 20 years, including through COVID.

On paper, Indonesia is doing amazing.

It has a huge domestic market, relatively low public debt, strategic resources and a young population.

Its economy is not collapsing in the traditional sense.

That is precisely what makes the current situation so interesting.

The economic foundations still look strong but investors are becoming less confident in the institutions managing them.

Since late 2024, the funds that spent 20 years buying the Indonesia story have been selling it.

First in silence, now in the open.

And the speed of that exit is the kind you normally only see when a country is about to break.

In June, the rupiah crashed through 18 ,000 to the dollar, the weakest level in its entire history.

Weaker than 1998, when the crisis brought down a dictatorship.

So, the government made a crazy move.

Parliament amended a financial law.

On the surface, technical stuff.

But buried inside it, won't close.

Anyone who buys special bonds from Danantara, the state giant investment fund, receives legal immunity.

Immunity from criminal prosecution, civil lawsuits or tax investigations.

Think about who that offer attracts.

If your money is clean, immunity is worth nothing to you.

The market understood immediately and the rupee has started falling again the same week.

The stock market tells the same story.

Since Prabowo took office, the Jakarta index has lost more than a quarter of its value.

In February, it went through a really bad crash.

The trigger was a press release from MSCI, the company that decides which countries qualified as real investment markets.

They basically threatened to reclassify Indonesia as a frontier market.

Frontier?

The same category as Kenya or Bangladesh.

For the seventh largest economy on earth, that's tough.

If that happens, every fund that tracks emerging market indexes has to sell Indonesia, because their own rules force them to.

Then Moody's join in with a negative credit outlook, one step before a downgrade.

Foreign investors panicked and have pulled about $8 .9 billion out of Indonesian assets.

Some of this movement might just be investors reducing exposure to emerging markets, but domestic capital appears to be living on an even larger scale.

Indonesians themselves have moved.

28 .2 billion out of their own country, three times more than the foreigners.

The people with the best information about Indonesia are the ones running the fastest.

Add it all up and the country's balance of payments, which was sitting on a comfortable surplus two years ago,

has flipped to a 9 billion dollars deficit.

The central bank is burning reserves to slow the fall, 10 billion dollars gone in the first half of this year alone.

It's very weird because it looks like a reaction to a recession.

But officially, Indonesia is still growing above 5%, one of the best numbers of any major economy.

So either the smartest money in Asia has lost its mind, or it knows something about that 5 % that you don't.

Let me explain.

Indonesia is a giant commodity exporter.

Coal, pine oil, and of course nickel.

When world prices for those swing, the economy should swing with them.

That's how it works everywhere.

Yet Indonesia's official growth prints 5 % every quarter.

Boom years, crisis years, oil shock, trade war, always 5%.

An economy that never has a bad quarter is strange.

At some point, you stop admiring it and start checking what's wrong.

Local economists did exactly that.

Last year, a group of them requested a private meeting with the finance ministry to ask how exactly the numbers were being produced.

Then came the first quarter of this year.

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The government announced 5 .6 % gross, a 3 -year high, right in the middle of a currency collapse.

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Dig into that release and you find that a big chunk of the gross comes from unsold goods piling up in warehouses.

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Stuff nobody bought yet but counted as gross in the official math.

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That's not really a boom, it's more good PR.

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You also find manufacturing supposedly booming, while electricity use fell over the same period.

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Factories that produce more while consuming less power.

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That would be a world first.

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And you don't need the statistics degree to feel that something is off.

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Just ask the Indonesian middle class or what's left of it.

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In 2019, 57 million Indonesians qualified as middle class.

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Today, fewer than 47 million do.

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And no, they didn't get rich and move up.

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They fell down into what the statistics office politely called the aspiring middle class.

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Not poor, just one band mount away from it.

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That group now counts 142 million people.

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More than half the country lives just below the middle class line.

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How does that happen in a country that grows 5 % a year?

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Nobody can prove these numbers are fake.

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And that's not the point.

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They might not even be.

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And yes, I know the stock market has recovered a bit since the fall.

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But the point is that the people managing billions have stopped believing in the figures.

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And once markets stop believing in your data, they price you like a country with something to hide,

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especially when they look at who's holding the will.

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Prabowo came to power promising 8 % growth.

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His signature project is a giant free meal program for 80 million school children and pregnant women.

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The single program now eats around 10 % of the entire state budget.

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The idea itself is not irrational.

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Better childhood nutrition can improve health and long -term productivity, and Indonesia still faces serious problems with malnutrition.

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The concern is the scale and speed of the rollout.

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A useful social program can still become a fiscal and administrative risk

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if the government expends it faster than it can supervise or finance it.

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Then, war broke out in Iran oil jumped above $90.

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Indonesia imports most of its oil and subsidizes fuel at the pump.

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So, they watched both bills explode at once.

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Remember the sacred 3 % deficit rule from earlier?

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The finance ministry ran the numbers.

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At these oil prices, the deficit blows through it.

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A disciplined government would cut something.

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For over a year, Prabowo refused to touch any of it.

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Instead, the central bank started printing money to buy government debt.

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Shortly after Prabowo installed his nephew as its deputy governor, the country's billionaires were strong -armed into buying so -called Patriot Bonds.

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They fired the respected finance ministry who built Indonesia's credibility over a decade.

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And the corruption, you already know about the gold bars.

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What you don't know is where the latest scandal landed, inside the free meals program itself.

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In June, the head of the agency running it was detained for allegedly selling procurement rights to supply kitchens.

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Faced with that, the government has two options, rebuild trust or stop the money from leaving.

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Indonesia picked the second one.

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Since early 2025, Indonesia has been closing its financial doors one by one.

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Watch the sequence.

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Door number one, the exporters.

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If you export commodities from Indonesia, the dollars you earn no longer belong entirely to you.

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You must park them in state -controlled banks for a minimum

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of one year with strict limits on what you can take out.

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The government's logic is simple.

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That's 80 billion dollars in foreign currency it gets to keep inside the country.

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Door number 2.

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Everyone else.

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Nine months ago, an Indonesian business could buy up to 100 ,000 dollars without providing paperwork.

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Today, that ceiling is 10 ,000, a 90 % cut.

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Door number three, and this one shocked even people who thought they had seen everything.

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In May, Prabowo created a new state agency called DSI.

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Its job is simple, become the mandatory middleman for Indonesia's commodity exports.

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If you produce coal, time oil or certain nickel products in Indonesia, you can no longer sell them to the world yourself.

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You sell them to the state and the state sells it for you.

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Of course, they touch the dollars first.

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Officially, it's about fighting tax avoidance.

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In practice, the state just took control of the country's biggest sources of foreign currency in the middle of a currency crisis.

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You do the math.

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Even the rating agencies can't figure out how this agency works.

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Moody's cited the lack of clarity around DSI as one of its main reasons for keeping Indonesia on negative watch.

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Now, bring this down to your level.

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Say you source from Indonesia or you're eyeing it as your China alternative.

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Your supplier's cash is now locked in a state bank.

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Its costs move with a currency that lost 14 % in 18 months.

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None of that shows up in the GDP numbers.

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So where does it show up?

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In the payments.

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At Statress, that's the part we see firsthand and there's a pattern.

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When a country starts trapping money, the first people to react are the local suppliers.

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They start asking to be paid into accounts in Singapore or Hong Kong instead of locally.

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They push for bigger deposits up front.

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Your supplier isn't being difficult.

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He's protecting himself from his own banking system.

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So, if your Indonesian partners suddenly change how they want to get paid, that's the earliest warning about the country.

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Last week, Parliament just approved the creation of an international financial centre.

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He will probably be in Bali and is designed to compete with Singapore, Hong Kong and Dubai.

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The offer is a 100 % corporate tax reduction.

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Golden visa holders who live there won't even count as Indonesian tax residents.

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They'll have special courts.

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The law went from first debate to final approval in under three weeks.

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Indonesia is offering the world 0 % tax in a country where exporters can't touch their own dollars.

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They're treating a trust problem the wrong way.

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At this point, it would be easy to write Indonesia off.

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That would also be a mistake.

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None of the problems we have discussed erases the country's qualities, and some investors believe the sell -off is exaggerated.

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In July, while everyone was busy writing obituaries, the Jakarta index climbed more than 10%.

197

Alan Gray, an investment found known for buying exactly what everyone hates, just made its first

198

Indonesian investment ever and foreign direct investment hit a record in the second quarter, up 27 % in a year.

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Even the rating agencies disagree with each other.

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While Moody's wave a red flag, S &P just reconfirm Indonesia's investment grade with a stable outlook.

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So, which side is right?

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The buyers or the sellers?

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Maybe both, actually.

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They're just not making the same bet.

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The buyers are betting that the assets are too cheap for a country this size.

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The settlers are betting that the rules will keep changing under their feet.

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Now, everybody is looking at the next move the government will pull out.

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There is still a credible positive scenario.

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The government could clarify DSI's mandate, preserve the independence of Bank Indonesia, keep the budget deficit within the believable past,

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and make the foreign currency rules more predictable.

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If it does that, Indonesia will stop damaging its credibility.

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Moody's has given itself 6 to 12 months to decide whether Indonesia keeps its investment great.

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But that's not the real emergency.

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Indonesia took drastic measures in the last few months, each one bigger than the last, each one buying less time.

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Argentina spent decades on that treadmill, so did Venezuela.

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Indonesia is not there today.

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But once temporary capital controls become permanent, removing them becomes politically and financially difficult.

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Very few countries have stepped off it voluntarily.

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Because the moment you lose in the control, the money you trap runs for the exit.

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And you're back to square one with less trust than before.

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So forget the gross number for a few months.

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Over the next year, watch one thing.

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The doors.

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If Jakarta starts reopening them, this becomes a rough patch in a great story.

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If the doors keep multiplying, you'll know which way this is going long before any official admits it.

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If this video helped you see Asia more clearly, subscribe.

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And if you do business with Indonesia or you're watching this from Jakarta and the picture on the ground looks different, tell me in the comments.

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I'll read them all.

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See you in the next video.

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FOR YOU

Лексика и советы по произношению к этому уроку

Этот урок разговорной практики построен на видео «Something weird is happening in Indonesia…». В этом видео 192 предложений и 2418 слов для шедоуинга. Речь длится 15:18. Говорящий говорит в естественном темпе, около 158 слов в минуту, близком к повседневной речи. Только 81% слов входят в 3000 самых частых слов английского языка, поэтому лексика сложная.

Ключевая лексика этого видео

15 слов из видео, которые стоит выучить, с произношением и значением:

Слово	Произношение	Значение
currency существительное	/ˈkʌɹ.ən.si/	валю́та
deficit существительное	/ˈdɛfəsɪt/	дефици́т
investor существительное	/ɪnˈvɛs.tə(ɹ)/	инве́стор, вкла́дчик
nickel существительное	/ˈnɪk.əl/	ни́кель
corruption существительное	/kəˈɹʌpʃən/	развраще́ние, растле́ние
boom глагол	/bum/	рокота́ть, грохота́ть
export существительное	/ˈɛks.pɔɹt/	э́кспорт, вы́воз
immunity существительное	/ɪˈmjuːnəti/	иммуните́т
emerge глагол	/ɪˈmɝd͡ʒ/	появля́ться, появи́ться
commodity существительное	/kəˈmɑdəti/	това́р, проду́кт
meal существительное	/ˈmiːl/	еда́, пи́ща
shock существительное	/ʃɔk/	уда́р
exit существительное	/ˈɛɡzət/	вы́ход
swing глагол	/ˈswɪŋ/	кача́ться, раска́чиваться
seventh прилагательное	/ˈsɛvənθ/	седьмо́й

Фразовые глаголы, которые вы услышите

Слово	Значение
figure out глагол	разбира́ться, разобра́ться
pull out глагол	выходи́ть, вы́йти
take out глагол	вынима́ть, вы́нуть

Фразы, которые стоит повторять

Короткие законченные фразы из видео, которые пригодятся в повседневном разговоре:

I'm not guessing how things work here.
If that's useful to you, subscribe.
Your supplier isn't being difficult.

Грамматика в этом видео

Конструкции, которые говорящий использует чаще всего, с точными словами из видео:

Конструкция	В видео
Present Perfect Continuous have/has been + -ing — действие началось раньше и продолжается	I've been doing · have been selling · has been closing
Условные предложения if + предложение, will/would + глагол — условие и его результат	If it does that, Indonesia will stop · If the doors keep multiplying, you'll know
Present Perfect have/has + причастие прошедшего времени — прошлое действие, важное сейчас	has crashed · has been · has started
Пассивный залог be + причастие прошедшего времени — важно, что происходит, а не кто это делает	being produced · was detained · is now locked

Произношение, на которое стоит обратить внимание

Говорящий использует 21 сокращённых и редуцированных форм, например don't, can't, you're. Произносите их коротко, так, как слышите.

Звуки «th»: seventh /ˈsɛvənθ/, mathematics /mæθ(.ə)ˈmæt.ɪks/, threaten /ˈθɹɛt.n̩/
Звуки «sh» и «zh»: corruption /kəˈɹʌpʃən/, shock /ʃɔk/, shortly /ˈʃɔɹtli/, exposure /ɪkˈspəʊ.ʒə(ɹ)/, capture /ˈkæp.(t)ʃɚ/
Длинные слова — следите за ударением: immunity /ɪˈmjuːnəti/, commodity /kəˈmɑdəti/, mathematics /mæθ(.ə)ˈmæt.ɪks/, credibility /kɹɛd.əˈbɪ.ɫɪ.ti/, temporary /ˈtɛmp(əˌɹ)ɛɹi/

Звуки, трудные для русскоязычных:

/w/ — губы округлены, это не /v/: swing /ˈswɪŋ/, qualify /ˈkwɑ.lɪ.faɪ/, sequence /ˈsiː.kwəns/, weaker /ˈwikɚ/, paperwork /ˈpeɪ.pɚˌwɝk/
/h/ — лёгкий выдох, а не русское «х»: hire /ˈhaɪɹ/, holder /ˈhoʊɫdɚ/, firsthand /ˈfɜːstˌhænd/
Звонкие согласные в конце слова — не оглушайте их: emerge /ɪˈmɝd͡ʒ/, subscribe /səbˈskɹaɪb/, administrative /ədˈmɪn.ɪ.stɹə.tɪv/, installed /ɪnˈstɔːld/, expand /ɪkˈspænd/

Как заниматься с этим видео

Прослушайте всё видео один раз молча и выпишите незнакомые слова.
Начните со скорости 0,75×, повторяйте предложение за предложением и вернитесь к обычной скорости, когда станет легко.
Запишите себя и сравните с оригиналом, обращая внимание на такие слова, как currency, deficit, investor.

Что такое техника Shadowing?

Shadowing — это научно обоснованная техника изучения языка, изначально разработанная для подготовки профессиональных переводчиков и популяризированная полиглотом доктором Александром Аргуэльесом. Метод прост, но эффективен: вы слушаете аудио на английском от носителей языка и немедленно повторяете вслух — как тень, следующая за говорящим с задержкой в 1–2 секунды. В отличие от пассивного прослушивания или грамматических упражнений, Shadowing заставляет мозг и мышцы рта одновременно обрабатывать и воспроизводить реальные речевые паттерны. Исследования показывают, что это значительно улучшает точность произношения, интонацию, ритм, связную речь, понимание на слух и беглость речи — что делает его одним из самых эффективных методов для подготовки к IELTS Speaking и реального общения на английском.

Техника шедоуинга: читать полное пошаговое руководство →

Практика Shadowing: Something weird is happening in Indonesia… - Изучайте разговорный английский по видео

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