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After declaring bankruptcy in 2024 and then again in 2025,

2026 finally finished things off as Spirit Airlines shut down entirely about three weeks ago now, following their failure to secure a last-minute government bailout.

Now, this particular business closure wasn't exactly shocking to anybody that had actually been following the company,

but the end of this otherwise unremarkable low-cost carrier might be both the indication of

and the cause of a wider reversal across the entire travel industry.

The last three decades in particular have been the golden age of budget tourism,

with most significant travel-related expenses like airfares and accommodation lagging behind overall inflation to become significantly cheaper in real terms.

For a lot of people, this was a very real lifestyle reprieve to offset a lot of other financial challenges.

Sure, they may never be able to afford a home and their career may be increasingly precarious compared to their parents.

But even a basic income, potentially mixed in with a little bit of new-age consumer debt,

could let people see the world in a way that was genuinely reserved for the jet set just a generation before.

According to the booking company Going, this time last year was the second cheapest month on record for airfares,

which they noted in the report was unlikely to change unless there were any major shocks in 2026.

So um, yeah.

Anyway, the reality today is there are several headwinds

that are all pushing back against the trend of budget friendly travel

and increased fuel costs are just one small part of the puzzle.

The closure of Spirit may be equally the result of their own poor practices mixed in with unfavorable market conditions, but no matter where the finger is eventually pointed,

without their low-cost seats in the market, regular airlines have much less pressure to be competitive on their prices,

which is a dynamic playing out in far more places than just this one specific example.

Travel related expenses are up by 20% year over year,

and this was already happening before we started making a distraction in Iran.

Drivers nationwide are fretting over increasing gas prices and now airlines say they are feeling the pinch.

Delta CEO said that jet fuel prices have increased dramatically since the war in Iran broke out.

More hotels are charging $1,000 or more a night.

Daniel Jacobs with True Loan Mortgage saying while inflation is on the decline, hotels and Airbnb prices are skyrocketing.

The shutdown was abrupt to many passengers, but this was really years in the making.

Spirit was in bankruptcy, it had filed for bankruptcy twice within one year.

Okay, so travel has been getting more expensive across the board, and the easy explanation is that, well, everything is getting more expensive in 2026.

Now fuel prices are something that is clearly worth addressing, but even before the conflict in Iran, travel-related costs were already increasing,

and they were increasing faster than overall inflation after an otherwise long period of pretty consistently getting more affordable.

Now, even though it would probably make for a much more compelling video, there is not a single silver bullet that explains why this has been happening.

Instead, there are a few headwinds that all need to be considered independently and collectively.

And then of course, they will make a lot more sense when we sprinkle the oil prices back into the equation.

Okay, so the first big factor is that the travel industry has been stratifying itself for a long time now.

But the last few years in particular have taken it to such an extreme

that it is having a meaningful impact on budget travelers.

The most obvious example of this is what happened to airline cabins.

The standard for most of the last 30 years has been economy for budget-conscious tourists,

business for well, mostly business people who didn't need to pay out of their own dime, and whose companies were happy to pay for them to arrive at a destination more ready to get work done,

and ultimately some airlines that offered firsts for very wealthy travelers who wanted a luxurious experience above

and beyond just the comfort of business.

With just a pinch of dynamic pricing and good ol' hidden fees, this model captured an overwhelming share of the market and aviation spend.

Today, the average international flight has something closer to six individual classes you can choose from.

Budget Airlines, regular economy, premium economy, business class, first class, high-end first class suites like those offered by Singapore or Qatar Airlines,

and then increasingly the private jet market sitting on top of all of that through services like NetJets, VistaJet, and, uh, Linus's creative accounting.

In just a perfect encapsulation of this issue, private jet charter companies have been struggling to keep up with demand at the same time as budget airlines are closing down.

The same thing is happening across hotels, cruises, restaurants, and basically every travel experience that can be sliced into a class system.

Cruise ships are potentially an even more extreme version of this.

Cruises were initially pitched as one of the most cost-effective ways to take a vacation

because the food and the cabin were all-inclusive, so your total spend was basically locked in from the moment you booked.

Today, the fastest-growing segment of the cruise market is ultra-premium yachts co-branded with high-end hotels like Four Seasons,

Ritz-Carlton, St. Regis, and Amman with cabins that can run up to a quarter of a million dollars per week.

Investment into this end of the market has been enormous, largely driven by private equity firms who have clocked which way the K-shaped economy has been bending.

Now I think it's probably worth mentioning that this does not mean that they are immune from their own incentivification.

Some of the initial reviews of these ultra high-end cruise ships have been hilariously bad.

Anyway, all of this by itself shouldn't really be a problem for budget travelers.

If the top half of the K wants to spend more on increasingly ridiculous accommodations

while most people enjoy budget prices for budget service, well, let them eat moldy cake.

If anything, the rise of budget airlines has been one of the great consumer wins of the last 30 years.

An aggressive low-cost competition has dragged regular economy prices down with it.

The problem is that the low end of this market is now under enormous pressure, and as those budget options dry up, the dynamics of the whole market start to change.

The clearest example of this is Spirit.

With Spirit gone from the market, regular airlines

that used to compete with their fares on the same routes suddenly have much less pressure to keep their own prices low.

They don't even have to do anything sinister to take advantage of this.

They just simply don't have to discount as aggressively as they used to.

On the other end, major carriers are also figuring out

that they can make a lot more money per square foot of cabin by ripping out rows of economy seats

and replacing them with premium economy or business class seats with relative confidence they will be filled consistently.

Lifthansa has been openly bragging that premium economy generates around 33% more revenue per square foot than regular economy,

and about 6% more than full business class.

For a business just trying to maximize revenue, why sell 10 economy seats to budget travelers

when you could sell 4 premium economy seats for more money

to people whose portfolios have done very well over the last few years?

The demand for those premium seats is genuinely there, so they would be kind of dumb not to displace the budget travelers.

Oh, and even airlines that do want to add more economy capacity kind of can't right now.

The aircraft production pipeline is a complete mess.

As of April 2026, Boeing and Airbus are sitting on a combined backlog of more than 12,000 narrow-body planes,

with Airbus' backlog alone representing roughly 10 years of production at current delivery rates.

Engine supply has become the binding constraint on the entire global narrowbody market, with LEAP engines from CFM International which power both the A320neo

and the 737 MAX effectively setting the upper limit on how many new planes anyone can put in the air.

Which means even if a low cost carrier wanted to step into Spirit's empty routes tomorrow with brand new fuel efficient planes, those planes are not available, possibly for years.

All of this to say

that just as something like Spirit Airlines dragged down costs on the routes they flew from the budget end of the market,

the draw of premium seats is pulling prices up as more space gets allocated to higher revenue seats, so when Spirit exited the market,

the only remaining forces are all in one direction.

Now, to be fair, a lot of former Spirit planes will be de-yellowed and released out there to other airlines, but those are unlikely to be focused on the bottom end of the market.

With such constrained supply, the existing fleet gets allocated to whichever routes and cabin configurations maximize revenue,

and right now, that is just serving the creamiest markets of premium economy and business class.

It's not great, but this alone is far from the biggest reason why your next vacation may be in the metaverse.

So it's time to learn how money works to find out if the golden age of cheap travel really is over.

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Okay, the second major factor is what Airbnb has done to the accommodation market when you actually arrive.

109

When Airbnb first showed up about 15 years ago, it was sold as a low-cost, no-frills alternative to a hotel, often with the host actually living in the property alongside the guests.

110

Of course, over time, it too became premium focused, with most properties being rented out without the host actually cohabitating or really even being present at all.

111

Landlords figured out that displacing their tenants to convert their properties into pseudo hotels gave them a slightly higher rental yield, and that's all they really needed to know.

112

Now, eventually, cities started cracking down on this as housing

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and tourist hotspots became catastrophically unaffordable for the people who would actually be supporting the tourists.

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And as this happened, Airbnb itself started leaning into quality listings, so the cheap end of the platform basically evaporated.

115

Airbnb's own Q4 2025 results show they removed 550,000 low-quality listings between 2023 and the end of 2025,

116

and that listings flagged as guest favorites now accounted for nearly half of all bookings on the platform.

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What that means is that the accommodations that survived this cleanup were largely already operating like hotels, while everything else got pressured to either move upscale or go out of business.

118

Now we covered the Airbnb bust on this channel a couple of years ago, but what we didn't mention was the impact that this platform had on hostels,

119

which used to be the bedrock of really affordable international travel.

120

During the golden years where VC subsidized just about everything, a lot of backpackers opted to split a whole Airbnb between a group of friends over sharing a hostel dorm with strangers,

121

and then COVID pretty much finished off whatever demand was left for this kind of cheap and cheerful shared accommodation.

122

The cumulative result is that the budget end of the global accommodation market has basically been hollowed out.

123

New York is probably the cleanest case study of this.

124

NYC enforced local law 18 in 2023 to crack down on short-term rentals, and the results have been kind of remarkable.

125

Airbnb listings citywide dropped from around $38,500 to roughly $5,000, a 92% decline.

126

Outer borough listings Brooklyn, Queens, and the bronx dropped from around 17 000 to about 1400

127

over the same window the 12-month average nightly rate for a

128

hotel room in new york city has hit a record 320

129

dollars with hotel prices in the city up 12.6 percent over the last two years

130

which is more than triple the national rate of hotel price increases now hopefully it should go without saying

131

that the need for people to be able to afford to

132

live in their own city should outweigh the need for tourists to enjoy a cheap hotel room

133

but unfortunately the damage was largely already done

134

and none of this made new york more livable to live

135

in what did change was who got to visit the city the neighborhoods

136

that used to host the cheaper airbnb capacity places like crown heights astoria

137

and the south bronx reportedly saw drops of up to 70 in foot traffic

138

which has hit the local restaurants and small businesses

139

that depend on tourist spending so that crackdown effectively just routed budget travelers out of the city entirely,

140

while higher spenders who could afford a Manhattan hotel kept coming.

141

And while New York is the most extreme example, the same logic is playing out at the city level across most of the major tourist destinations in Europe too.

142

Venice now charges day visitors between 5 and 10 euros to enter the city on peak days, with the higher rate kicking in if you book closer to the date.

143

Over 720,000 day visitors paid the fee between April and July 2025 alone.

144

Barcelona has bumped its tourist tax to 4 euros a night, and the total nightly tax on a higher-end hotel can approach 15 euros once city and regional fees stack up.

145

And Amsterdam is capping cruise traffic to 100 ships in 2026, down from 190 before banning them outright by 2035.

146

Now individually, none of these fees are devastating even to the most budget-conscious backpacker,

147

but they do raise the bar in such a way that they can have knock-on impacts across an entire city.

148

If you are visiting Venice for the day with a backpack full of borrowed condiments for sustenance, a couple extra euros a day is a consideration.

149

Hypothetically, of course.

150

I've never done this.

151

But anyway, if you are spending three nights in the Amman, the fee is a rounding error.

152

This gradually means that fewer budget and more high-end travelers will accumulate in the centers,

153

which means hotels and restaurants will naturally start accommodating to higher-end clientele, which gradually just makes the entire city a more expensive destination.

154

Now to play devil's advocate a bit here, to a lot of city centers that have been somewhat overrun by revenge travelers, this is kind of the point.

155

One wealthy couple who spends 30 grand on a week in

156

the city is providing just as much economic value as a thousand backpackers spending 30 bucks each

157

while creating far less disturbance to the locals.

158

Then of course, the third factor is the one that gets most of the headlines, and that is oil.

159

Yeah, okay, this one is fairly obvious, so I will just get to the point.

160

Jet fuel prices have roughly doubled since the start of the

161

war neuron with north american jet fuel up around 95 from about 2.50 a gallon to around 4.56

162

the international energy agency has actually called the disruption through the

163

straight of hermuz the largest supply disruption in the history of

164

the global oil market the relevant thing for our purposes is

165

how those costs get distributed the marginal cost of fuel in

166

a ten thousand dollar business class seat might be an extra five hundred dollars not nothing

167

but but the kind of customer paying 10 grand for a flatbed is not going to notice the difference.

168

A $700 budget airline ticket getting hit with a $100 fuel surcharge is statistically a much bigger deal.

169

And the carriers are pretty open about this.

170

Spirit literally cited jet fuel doubling in two months as a major reason why they couldn't make their March restructuring plan work.

171

And they pointed to fuel costs explicitly when they shut down operations earlier this month.

172

So you can see how the oil shock just gets layered on top of the existing premiumization problem.

173

Premium airlines and premium routes can absorb a fuel spike, where thin margin budget carriers on already cheap routes just can't.

174

The fourth and final headwind doesn't get talked about much in the travel context, but it does a lot of the heavy lifting.

175

And that is what is happening to the US dollar.

176

For most of the last decade, Americans have been able to lean on a strong dollar to get genuinely cheap overseas vacations.

177

That was especially true in places like Japan, where a weakening yen meant an American on a basic salary could spend a week living large, effectively subsidized by the petrodollar.

178

The problem is that when you flood a destination with relatively wealthy dollar tourists, hotels and airlines slowly adjust their prices upwards to capture all that demand.

179

A Tokyo hotel in 2026 is not the same bargain it was in 2022.

180

And now the dynamic is going the other way.

181

The US dollar index has been trading around 97 to 99 through May 2026, well off its record peaks,

182

and Cambridge currencies is currently forecasting it to drift down towards 90 to 96 by the back end of the year.

183

The Federal Reserve's own research on exchange rate elasticities of international tourism makes this pretty intuitive.

184

When the dollar weakens, American outbound travel just gets more expensive in real terms, even when the local currency prices on the destination haven't moved at all.

185

And once again, this hits different parts of the market very differently.

186

People earning a salary can simply afford less vacation for the same dollar amount, even if the foreign prices haven't moved.

187

And anyone who needs to top up their trip with a personal loan is doing

188

so at an interest rate pretty much double what they were four years ago.

189

People who are already wealthier in asset terms, like stock portfolios and property, have largely had any dollar weakness offset by their asset gains,

190

and the strong stock market has actually made them more comfortable spending on travel, not less.

191

Now I just want to quickly mention

192

that a smaller channel by the name of Analyzing Finance with

193

Nick actually made a great video on this dynamic a few weeks ago.

194

He is very straight to the point

195

but he has done a lot of good deep dives on different topics and is definitely worth checking out.

196

Now in real terms, travel is still cheaper than it was 20 years ago.

197

And again, just for a bit of perspective, June 2025 was the second cheapest month for airfares on record.

198

But there is no hard and fast rule that says this has to remain true.

199

And for what it's worth, cheap travel was kind of the one consolation prize for a generation

200

that mostly missed out on the other big consumer wins of the last 50 years.

201

They might not have got the same shot at home ownership their parents did, their careers are more precarious, their student debt is heavier in real terms,

202

and they have lived through three major recessions.

203

But the one consolation prize they did get, being able to fly anywhere for cheap, is now potentially also drying up.

204

But from the market's point of view, this is all working exactly as intended.

205

And if you want further proof of that, go and watch this video next to find out how the future became someone else's problem.

206

And don't forget to like and subscribe to keep on learning how money works.

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Лексика и советы по произношению к этому уроку

Этот урок разговорной практики уровня B2 построен на видео «The End Of Budget Tourism». Чаще всего повторяются слова: budget, airline, hotel, price, travel. В этом видео 206 предложений и 3500 слов для шедоуинга. Речь длится 18:58. Говорящий говорит быстро, около 184 слов в минуту, поэтому звуки часто сливаются и сокращаются. Только 81% слов входят в 3000 самых частых слов английского языка, поэтому лексика сложная.

Ключевая лексика этого видео

Самые сложные слова из видео (15), с произношением и значением:

Слово	Произношение	Значение
airline существительное	/ˈɛɹˌlaɪn/	авиакомпа́ния, авиапредприя́тие
accommodation существительное	/əˌkɒm.əˈdeɪ.ʃən/	жильё, расквартирова́ние
cabin существительное	/ˈkæbɪn/	хи́жина, до́мик
euro существительное	/ˈjʊɹoʊ/	е́вро
airfare существительное		сто́имость авиабиле́та
bankruptcy существительное	/ˈbæŋkˌɹʌp(t).si/	банкро́тство, несостоя́тельность
inflation существительное	/ɪnˈfleɪ.ʃən/	инфля́ция
allocate глагол	/ˈæl.ə.keɪt/	выделя́ть, вы́делить
backlog существительное	/ˈbæk(ˌ)lɔɡ/	запа́с, резе́рвы
backpacker существительное		пе́ший тури́ст, пе́шая тури́стка
headwind глагол	/ˈhɛdˌwɪnd/	встре́чный ве́тер
nightly наречие	/ˈnaɪtli/	ежено́щно, ежено́чно
precarious прилагательное	/pɹɪˈkɛəɹi.əs/	опа́сный, риско́ванный
subsidize глагол	/ˈsʌbsɪdaɪz/	субсиди́ровать
consolation существительное	/ˌkɑn.səˈleɪ.ʃən/	утеше́ние

Фразовые глаголы, которые вы услышите

Слово	Значение
figure out глагол	разбира́ться, разобра́ться
find out глагол	узнава́ть, узна́ть
shut down глагол	выключить, остановить
break out глагол	сбега́ть, сбежа́ть
check out глагол	проверя́ть, прове́рить
finish off глагол	поко́нчить
rip out глагол	сдира́ть, содра́ть

Грамматика в этом видео

Конструкции, которые говорящий использует чаще всего, с точными словами из видео:

Конструкция	В видео
Present Perfect Continuous have/has been + -ing — действие началось раньше и продолжается	has been getting · has been happening · has been stratifying
«Used to» used to + глагол — прошлая привычка или состояние, которых больше нет	used to compete · used to be · used to host
Present Perfect have/has + причастие прошедшего времени — прошлое действие, важное сейчас	have been · have increased · have taken
Пассивный залог be + причастие прошедшего времени — важно, что происходит, а не кто это делает	was genuinely reserved · is eventually pointed · be considered

Произношение, на которое стоит обратить внимание

Говорящий использует 15 сокращённых и редуцированных форм, например don't, can't, didn't. Произносите их коротко, так, как слышите.

Звуки «sh» и «zh»: accommodation /əˌkɒm.əˈdeɪ.ʃən/, inflation /ɪnˈfleɪ.ʃən/, consolation /ˌkɑn.səˈleɪ.ʃən/, disruption /dɪsˈɹʌpʃən/, closure /ˈkloʊ.ʒɚ/
Длинные слова — следите за ударением: accommodation /əˌkɒm.əˈdeɪ.ʃən/, genuinely /ˈd͡ʒɛn.ju.ɪn.li/, precarious /pɹɪˈkɛəɹi.əs/, consolation /ˌkɑn.səˈleɪ.ʃən/, intuitive /ɪnˈtjuːɪtɪv/

Как заниматься с этим видео

Прослушайте всё видео один раз молча и выпишите незнакомые слова.
Начните со скорости 0,75×, повторяйте предложение за предложением и вернитесь к обычной скорости, когда станет легко.
Запишите себя и сравните с оригиналом, обращая внимание на такие слова, как airline, accommodation, cabin.

Что такое техника Shadowing?

Shadowing — это научно обоснованная техника изучения языка, изначально разработанная для подготовки профессиональных переводчиков и популяризированная полиглотом доктором Александром Аргуэльесом. Метод прост, но эффективен: вы слушаете аудио на английском от носителей языка и немедленно повторяете вслух — как тень, следующая за говорящим с задержкой в 1–2 секунды. В отличие от пассивного прослушивания или грамматических упражнений, Shadowing заставляет мозг и мышцы рта одновременно обрабатывать и воспроизводить реальные речевые паттерны. Исследования показывают, что это значительно улучшает точность произношения, интонацию, ритм, связную речь, понимание на слух и беглость речи — что делает его одним из самых эффективных методов для подготовки к IELTS Speaking и реального общения на английском.

Техника шедоуинга: читать полное пошаговое руководство →

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