跟读练习: The Stock Market is BROKEN (just accept it) - 通过视频学习英语口语
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At some point over the last few years, investing stopped feeling like analysis and started feeling like watching a game of Wheel of Fortune.
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And honestly, it's been pretty entertaining, because it's hard not to smile when someone on Reddit turns a weekly options trade into a 2 ,000 % gain,
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and then immediately posts a screenshot like they've just unlocked the capitalism speedrun.
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But, while it may be awesome to watch from the sidelines, it's also deeply unsettling.
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Because for most of modern financial history, markets weren't perfect, but they were at least anchored to something real.
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Things like earnings, cash flows, and economic data.
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The boring adult stuff.
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And sure, historically, markets have always had periods where they go through manic phases.
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But whether it was large cap stocks in the 70s, internet stocks in the early 2000s, or even the banks in 2008, eventually fundamentals showed up like gravity.
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You could ignore them for a while, mock them, and even post memes about them.
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But sooner or later, intrinsic valuations mattered again.
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Because there was always an unspoken belief that value investing was at the foundation of markets.
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But over the last few years, it feels like that belief is changing.
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And it's not because prices are high.
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Markets have been expensive before.
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And it's not because speculation is present either.
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Speculation is basically a market tradition.
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What feels different this time around is that the relationship between market prices and fundamentals feels loose.
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It's like they're technically in the same room, but they just aren't on speaking terms anymore.
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Because since 2020, if someone tries to bring fundamentals back into the conversation, they get the same reaction as someone asking the DJ to play Nickelback.
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Because the pandemic wasn't just a shock to the markets.
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It rewired them.
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The story used to be "invest for the long term" and "buy quality companies at fair prices." But since the pandemic, the story has changed.
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Now it's "buy the dip because stocks only go up." a little uncomfortable.
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And not because it hasn't been working, but because it has been.
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And what used to be a strategy has quietly just turned into an assumption.
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And this mindset shift didn't come out of nowhere.
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It was the perfect storm of a mass influx of new investors, interest rates being historically low, and Jerome Powell's money printer doing its best impression of a fire hose.
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And slowly but surely, the markets adopted a new mindset where every dip is a gift
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and every sell -off is a buying opportunity.
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And here's the part nobody likes to talk about.
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retail investors, it's affected professionals.
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Because when markets stop behaving the way you were trained to understand them, experience stops being an advantage and starts becoming a liability.
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Take Michael Burry, for example, the same Michael Burry who famously profited $800 million from his bet against the housing market in 2008
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and the inspiration for the movie The Big Short.
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He is the human embodiment of trust the fundamentals and ignore the noise.
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And recently, he shut down his hedge fund.
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Why?
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Well, in his own words he said, "My estimation of value in securities is not now and has not been for some time in sync with the markets."
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Which really is just him saying, "The market has stopped pricing assets based on fundamentals." And you can see it across the board, from gold to real estate to equities to crypto.
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And if the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent, then value investing stops being a viable strategy in markets.
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So if someone who built their entire fortune on trusting fundamentals is wondering whether gravity still applies to markets,
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it forces a deeper question: If fundamentals aren't driving prices anymore, then what is?
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And this is where behavioral finance enters the story.
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Because while traditional finance assumes markets are efficient and rational, behavioral finance starts from a very different assumption.
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It assumes markets are human.
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It assumes that things like human psychology, emotions, and psychological biases drive market behaviors.
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Which may sound obvious, but for most of modern financial history, this was an unpopular concept.
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Because psychologists Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky pioneered this field back in the late 1970s, they showed that humans don't evaluate risk objectively,
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that we fear losses more than we value gains, that we anchor to narratives, and that we instinctively follow crowds.
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But despite the evidence backing these ideas,
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behavioral finance still spent decades living explain anomalies in the markets,
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things like why bubbles formed and why panic happens.
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Investors assumed markets were efficient and just sometimes had the occasional emotional hiccup.
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But after 2020, something changed.
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The question shifted from "what is this company's intrinsic value?" to "how will people react to this news?"
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Because when narratives matter more than balance sheets, momentum overpowers valuations, and prices move without fundamentals catching up.
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There is something deeper going on, and investors were forced to adapt.
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Because behavioral finance stopped being used to just explain edge cases, and started being used as the operating system, everything else runs on.
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fuel on this fire, there's something else I need to tell you about.
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Which brings us to the sponsor of today's video, Aura.
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Because here's something that should make you uncomfortable.
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Right now, there are data brokers making billions of dollars by selling personal information online.
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They create detailed reports that include your name, your contact information, your address, and even who your relatives are.
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If they can collect it, they can sell it.
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And the scariest part?
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They don't really care who buys it.
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Scammers, spammers, or stalkers.
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If someone's willing to pay, your personal data is just another product on the shelf, and that's where Aura comes in.
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Aura helps protect your privacy by identifying data brokers that are selling your personal information, and then automatically removing your info from those sites, and keeping it off.
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And Aura is built to cover the full range of modern digital safety.
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With Aura, you get alerts if your personal info shows up on the dark web.
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a secure VPN, and access to 24 /7 US -based fraud support experts who are ready to help if something goes wrong.
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And if it does, Aura includes up to $5 million in identity theft insurance protection.
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If you're interested in checking out Aura, you can try it for free for 14 days at aura .com /casualfinance.
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Thank you to Aura for sponsoring this video.
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And now back to the secret forces that are driving the markets.
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Because human behaviors like But they used to be constrained.
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Information moved slowly, participation in markets was limited, and trading had friction.
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But now, you can wake up, see a hot stock tip online from some guy on Twitter, and then deploy capital before you've even finished brushing your teeth.
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Because narratives don't spread over months anymore.
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They spread over hours.
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And that's how markets have changed.
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Behavioral finance used to be a supplementary force in pricing, and now it's at the forefront.
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information and reaction.
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So when enough people agree on the same story, prices move, and often, with little to no regard for fundamentals.
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And because of this, institutions have been forced to adapt as well.
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Instead of just modeling traditional inputs like cash flows, discount rates, and trading multiples, they're now incorporating online narratives and sentiment analysis.
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And it's not because they just love scraping the dark corners of Reddit at 2am.
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But since 2020, these variables have done a better job explaining short -to -medium -term price action better than traditional metrics.
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And that's how we got to where we are today.
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And the reason I made this video was with the intention to answer one question: Is this just a fad, or is this a structural shift in markets?
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And the more time I spent digging into this question, the more I came to the conclusion that it's just too early to tell, and that's because there's a good argument for both sides.
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Because even after five straight years of behavioral finance being the driving force behind market behaviors, history tends to tell us this is still just a phase.
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Because markets have always gone through periods like this, where psychology takes over, power numbers and prices drift far away from fundamentals,
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but eventually, gravity shows up.
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And if that's the case with what's happening right now, we're just living through a good old -fashioned bubble, and things will make sense again sooner or later.
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But the other possibility is hard to ignore.
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The disappearance of friction, the rise of social media, and the mass influx of new investors may have structurally changed the markets.
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And if that's true, then this isn't just a bubble we're seeing, it's a new regime, one where markets don't just price cash flows, they price attention.
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So the real question isn't whether markets feel strange.
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They do.
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The real question is if whether this strangeness is temporary, or whether we're seeing an investment landscape that's fundamentally changed.
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And I'm curious to hear where you land.
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Do you think this is just another bubble driven by familiar psychology and emotions?
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Or do you think this is a permanent shift in how markets work?
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Drop your take in the comments, and I'll be reading through them.
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And maybe that's the final irony in it all.
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Maybe debating whether this is a bubble or not might be a part of the same psychology that's driving it.
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本课的词汇与口语要点
这段视频共有 109 个句子、1581 个单词可供跟读。 讲话部分时长为 8:55。 说话人语速自然，每分钟约 177 个词，接近日常对话。 只有 81% 的单词属于英语最常用的 3,000 词，词汇难度较高。
视频中的重点词汇
视频中 15 个不太常见的单词，附发音和释义：
- fundamental /ˌfʌn.dəˈmɛn.təl/ (形容词) — 基本. Related to a foundation, base, or basis; serving as a foundation.
- aura /ˈɔːɹə/ (名词) — 靈氣 /灵气. A subtle emanation or exhalation of any substance, such as an aroma or odour.
- bubble /ˈbʌbəl/ (名词) — 泡, 氣泡 /气泡. A spherically contained volume of air or other gas in a liquid, commonly a soapy liquid.
- investor /ɪnˈvɛs.tə(ɹ)/ (名词) — 投資者 /投资者, 投資家 /投资家. A person who invests money in order to make a profit.
- narrative /ˈnæɹ.ə.tɪv/ (名词) — 記敘文 /记叙文. The systematic recitation of an event or series of events.
- invest /ɪnˈvɛst/ (动词) — 耗費 /耗费, 投資 /投资. To spend money, time, or energy on something, especially for some benefit or purpose; used with in.
- psychology /saɪˈkɑ.lə.d͡ʒi/ (名词) — 心理學 /心理学. The study of the human mind.
- ignore /ɪɡˈnɔː/ (动词) — 無視 /无视, 忽略. To deliberately not listen or pay attention to.
- belief /bɪˈliːf/ (名词) — 相信, 信心. Mental acceptance of a claim as true.
- efficient /ɪˈfɪʃənt/ (形容词) — 高效率. Making good, thorough, or careful use of resources; not consuming extra. Especially, making good use of time or energy.
- fortune /ˈfɔːtjuːn/ (名词) — 命運 /命运, 氣數 /气数. Destiny, especially favorable.
- emotion /ɪˈməʊ.ʃən/ (名词) — 感情, 情感. A person's internal state of being and involuntary physiological response to an object or a situation, based on or tied to physical state and sensory data.
- uncomfortable /ʌnˈkʌm.fɚ.tə.bl̩/ (形容词) — 不舒服. Not comfortable; causing discomfort.
- assumption /əˈsʌm(p).ʃ(ə)n/ (名词) — 假設 /假设. The act of assuming, or taking to or upon oneself; the act of taking up or adopting.
- sponsor /ˈspɒn.səː/ (名词) — 保證人 /保证人. A person or organization with some sort of responsibility for another person or organization, especially where the responsibility has a religious, legal, or…
视频中出现的短语动词
- go through (动词) — 通過 /通过. To travel from one end of something to the other.
- show up (动词) — 露面. To appear, arrive, or attend, especially suddenly or erratically.
- check out (动词) — 退房. To record the departure or withdrawal of someone or something (such as guests, employees, books, etc.).
- go up (动词) — 上昇 /上升, 上去. To move upwards.
- sell off (动词) — 賣掉 /卖掉, 賤賣 /贱卖. To sell assets for the purpose of disposing of them quickly rather than for maximizing profit.
- take over (动词) — 接管, 接手. To assume control of something, such as a business or enterprise, and sometimes by force.
- turn into (动词) — 變得 /变得, 變成 /变成. To become.
- wake up /ˌweɪk ˈʌp/ (动词) — 醒, 醒來 /醒来. To stop sleeping; to awake.
需要注意的发音
说话人用了 22 次缩略和弱读形式，例如 don't, we're, aren't。请按听到的简短形式来说。
- “sh” 和 “zh” 音: efficient /ɪˈfɪʃənt/, emotion /ɪˈməʊ.ʃən/, assumption /əˈsʌm(p).ʃ(ə)n/, speculation /ˌspɛk.jəˈleɪ.ʃən/, valuation /ˌvæ.ljuːˈeɪ.ʃən/
- 长单词——注意重音位置: fundamental /ˌfʌn.dəˈmɛn.təl/, behavioral /bɪˈheɪvjəɹəl/, psychology /saɪˈkɑ.lə.d͡ʒi/, uncomfortable /ʌnˈkʌm.fɚ.tə.bl̩/, historically /hɪˈstɔɹɪkli/
如何用这段视频练习
- 先完整听一遍视频，不要开口，记下不认识的单词。
- 先用 0.75 倍速逐句跟读，熟练之后再回到正常速度。
- 录下自己的声音并与原声对比，特别注意 fundamental, aura, bubble 这类单词。
视频中的语法
说话人最常用的结构，并附上视频中的原话：
| 结构 | 视频中的用法 |
|---|---|
| “used to” used to + 动词 — 过去的习惯或状态，现在已不再如此 | used to be |
| 现在完成时 have/has + 过去分词 — 过去发生但与现在仍有关联的事 | it's been · they've just unlocked · have always had |
| 被动语态 be + 过去分词 — 强调发生了什么，而不是谁做的 | were trained · were forced · is built |
什么是跟读法？
跟读法 (Shadowing) 是一种有科学依据的语言学习技巧，最初开发用于专业口译员的培训，并由多语言者Alexander Arguelles博士普及。这个方法简单而强大：您在听英语母语原声的同时立即大声重复——就像是一个延迟1-2秒紧跟说话者的影子。与被动听力或语法练习不同，跟读法强迫您的大脑和口腔肌肉同时处理并模仿真实的讲话模式。研究表明它能显着提高发音准确性，语调，节奏，连读，听力理解和口语流利度——使其成为雅思口语备考和真实英语交流最有效的方法之一。