تدريب Shadowing: Demographics Expert Answers Population Questions | Tech Support | WIRED - تعلم التحدث بالإنجليزية عبر الفيديو
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I'm Jennifer Shuba and I study demographic data.
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Let's answer your questions from the internet.
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This is Population Support.
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At Verillion 4, how many people have ever lived on this Earth?
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So there have been about 108 billion people, as an estimate, who have ever taken a breath on planet Earth.
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If you went back to, say, year one, there would be about 55 billion people who had ever taken a breath.
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And there are 8 billion people who live on planet Earth, 7% of the 108 billion who have ever taken a breath.
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Here's a question from Quora.
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Is the majority of the world's population children or adults?
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Well, the majority of the world's population is adults.
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70% of us are over the age of 18.
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Even in Africa, which is the youngest region in the world, 54% of the population is adults.
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Countries have seen a steady increase in their life expectancy over time.
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World population is growing older, and that's because the number of children per woman has gone down.
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One way to think about it is the average woman about 50 years ago would have had four children in her lifetime,
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but the average woman globally today has only two.
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So if we think about lining everyone in the planet up from the youngest person to the oldest person, where would the center of gravity be?
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The center of gravity has shifted over time as the average number of children per woman has gone down.
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At JD Crow 13, quiz, what is the fastest growing minority in America?
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If you answered hipster, then you win the prize.
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Actually, if you answered Asian Americans, you would win the prize.
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They are the fastest growing minority in the United States and they're about 7% of the US population.
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At Benpo 234, what are the signature demographics of a red state versus a blue state?
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If we think most generally, a red state most often would be more rural, probably have an older population and is whiter.
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Blue state would have more urban areas, ethnically or racially diverse, and probably a younger population.
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But you may notice that it doesn't always map that way.
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That's why on election night, it wasn't really just enough for us to see the 50 states projected on the screen
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and try to figure out how the election would turn.
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You could start to zoom in and see really different dynamics, like Tennessee, for example, that is relatively a red state across,
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and then with these little blue dots in the Memphis, Nashville areas.
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A state like Maine is the most rural state in the United States, but it still has lots of blue areas and those are its urban areas.
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So if you're talking about like a House race or a Senate race, you can see how those sub-state,
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red and blue areas really show up a matter for what a vote looks like.
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At Stallman's Beard, is immigration a net positive or negative?
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One way we wanna think about it is through an economic lens.
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In the United States, immigrants are actually most likely to be of working ages.
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The U.S has a total fertility rate below replacement level of 1.6 children per woman on average.
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It means immigration contributes quite a bit to the growth in the working age population here.
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We can see that foreign-born population, very few children under 5, very few 5 to 17 years of age, much more concentrated in terms of 18 to 64,
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or those working ages, versus U.S born population, immigration is kind of what propels that overall population growth.
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If the U.S were to stop all immigration right now,
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not do anything else between now and the end of the century, the U.S population would shrink by over 30%.
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AtVenomPilled wants to know why do fertility rates matter?
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Well, they matter a lot because they impact its age structure, for example, and of course its size.
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We can actually see this if we look at snapshots in time of a handful of countries in the world today.
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Females on this side and males on this side from age zero all the way up to over a hundred.
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So if we're looking at Ethiopia here we can see this classic pyramid shape means
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that it's a population where women have on average more than two children.
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So the population is a lot more bottom heavy which means
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that there are a lot more younger people in the country there.
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If you had one that's fertility rate of four children per
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woman on average each generation is twice the size of the one before it.
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Versus if we look at a country like Turkey, you can see that that center of gravity in terms of ages is in the middle more.
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And that's because they've had close to replacement level fertility rates for a while.
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Average number of children of 1.9 per woman.
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So we see that that population is growing older.
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The bulk of the people would be here of these working ages.
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And then we get to Japan.
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It's not really a population pyramid anymore it's more of a tree.
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There are lots of older people in this society.
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Some of that is longevity, and so you can see this narrowing here at the bottom, and that just shows you that women of reproductive ages, they're having under replacement level fertility rates.
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So why do those fertility rates matter?
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If you're in Ethiopia and you're a policy maker, probably one of your bigger concerns is how to build enough
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schools year after year for all of these young people aging into kindergarten, and then how to have enough jobs for those who are aging into the workforce.
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If you're in Turkey, you're thinking about the working age population, certainly, and their jobs there.
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But you also need to be thinking about how, in just a few years, these folks will be moving into retirement ages, and how do you plan for that?
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And if you're in Japan, you're thinking about how schools are closing year after year.
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You have a much smaller workforce needing to support a growing population of older people.
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So age structures, which are affected by fertility rates, really matter for even setting the agenda at the national level.
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At Tommy Boyo is the real issue that we have too many humans on the planet.
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So in a few hundred years, when the world population is over 50 billion, what will our problems be then?
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We will never have a population of 50 billion, at least not anywhere close to it with our trends right now.
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Best estimates are somewhere around the year 2080, and we'll top out at between 9 and 10 billion people.
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Now, we're reasonably certain about this because our trends in fertility rates and mortality rates, they're following a fairly predictable pattern.
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The uncertainty comes from really just two things.
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One is how fast will fertility rates fall in places where they're currently still high?
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And there really aren't that many places in the world where fertility rates are really high.
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They're mostly concentrated in a few countries in sub-Saharan Africa.
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We live in a world where there are only eight countries out of 200-something countries where women have five or more children.
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That includes Nigeria, for example, which is a pretty big country, keeps global population young.
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We have not seen any indication that it's gonna come up in places where it's low, so I feel pretty confident we'll be hitting a peak of somewhere between nine and 10 billion people, roughly around the year of 2080.
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At Hawaiian Pace asks, how can Elon Musk be worried about population decline when Nick Cannon exists?
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Elon and Nick Cannon maybe have something in common, which is they might be single-handedly trying to change global trends.
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Global population growth has been declining since the 1960s.
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You can see this peak here in the mid-1960s.
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So that rate of growth is really going down over time.
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This is what's happening beneath the surface, while on top we see world population continuing to grow to where we have 8 billion today.
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So why is Elon Musk worried about declining population?
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It's
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because what's happening right now is the beneath-the-surface trends are starting
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to catch up to what we actually on the surface where there's over 60 countries in the world that have shrinking populations.
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We have two parents, so to keep population growth steady, you would want to replace them with two children.
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That would be a steady growth.
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But in some countries, Singapore for example, you only have one child born for those two parents.
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So you can see how those populations of those countries would start to shrink over time.
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And that's happening especially in a lot of high-income countries.
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So the reason why somebody like Elon Musk would be concerned
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about this is you end up with with smaller generations over time, meaning fewer producers and fewer consumers.
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At Shuffleupagus, I'm on a road trip right now, and I'm wondering what's up with these empty small towns.
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Are they ghost towns?
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Is depopulation real?
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So depopulation is not only real, there are a lot of governments who are really worried about this
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because of what it means for economic vitality or national security.
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Take China, for example.
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Obviously one of the world's biggest economies, huge player on the international stage, but also a rapidly shrinking population.
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Look at a country like Italy and how many of the villages are depopulating.
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If you're in Europe, South Korea, Japan, you're seeing areas of the country empty out.
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We see pictures all over the newspapers of towns and villages in Japan with ivy growing through the windows from abandoned homes.
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Storefronts start to close.
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These fertility rates are lower.
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And then that means the population of these small towns
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and cities is growing older and older and then eventually dying out without any young people there to replace them.
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And you don't necessarily see people moving from bigger cities all the way out to very small towns
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and very rural areas because there's no job opportunities there.
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Now you do see some retirees doing that.
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Take a state like Maine, for example.
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Most rural state in the United States actually has seen an influx of retirees moving there, but that's not because they're moving there for job opportunities.
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The United States itself is not shrinking overall, but there are plenty of places within the United States that are shrinking.
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Now we've had plenty of examples of depopulation in the past.
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I mean, think about Detroit and the collapse of that auto industry there, but we've not ever seen this scale of depopulation.
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Plus, of course, people often leaving these areas because, you know, once an area starts to depopulate,
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of course, fewer people will be wanting to stay there that jobs leave, the community and the vitality part of that disappears as well.
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And so it can kind of accelerate that depopulation.
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Here is a question from Quora.
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What countries do most immigrants to America come from?
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Well, top countries of origin for U.S immigrants in 2022, this number here, 23% were from Mexico,
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6% from India, 6% from China, 4% Philippines, and then El Salvador, Vietnam, and Cuba, all 3%, and Korea, 2%.
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This has actually been changing over time.
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Immigration from Mexico has really dropped over time.
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Mexico's economy has been growing.
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Their total fertility rate is actually the same as the fertility rate in the United States, 1.6.
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And so we've seen less Mexican immigration to the U.S over time as a proportion, whereas we've seen countries to the south of Mexico really increasing.
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You know, think about gang violence and instability in countries like El Salvador or Guatemala.
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That's really been a driver of some of that northward migration.
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So those are the top countries of origin.
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But if we look broader at the regions, we see that Latin America is 50% of immigrants to the United States in 2022,
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but Asia was 31% of migrants to the U.S in that year.
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Smaller percentages for Europe, 10%, Africa, 6%, Canada, and Oceania.
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At Maureen Jo, why are people leaving California for Texas and Arizona?
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If we look at the way that the U.S population has changed between the 2010 census and the 2020 census,
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and you still saw lots of growth in the population in places in California.
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And this pink here really shows you places where you started to lose population.
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So a lot of the U.S.
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Northeast started to see some emptying out.
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But we saw during the pandemic that people were moving to take advantage of states without income taxes.
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Nashville really started to boom.
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Tennessee is a state without an income tax.
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Florida, similarly, a state without an income tax.
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A lot of people started to move there jobs would move there as well.
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After the pandemic, we've really continued to see growth in the U.S.
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Southeast.
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Between the middle of 2022 and the middle of 2023, you saw the U.S.
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Southeast grow by about 1.1%, whereas the Northeast actually shrank, while there were other regions in the U.S that either barely grew or even shrank.
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Craig's brother Brian wants to know, I've been to the most densely populated city in the world. Have you?
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Do you know what city that is?
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I do know it's Manila in the Philippines with approximately 46,000 people per square kilometer.
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And I haven't been there yet.
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Doom Bro Max asks, What made the world population increase so drastically after 1900?
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We had great improvements in public health, sanitation, nutrition, antibiotics, and that allowed those people who were born to live into their reproductive ages.
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So this chart really lays it out for us.
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If we go way back in time, 200,000 years ago, there's very little global growth.
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Even as we go through time, 2000 BCE, for example, or year one, the global population, the number of people here at any one point in time,
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is really growing slowly.
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And that's because our birth rates and our death rates, those really matched each other.
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But we start to see a major shift.
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Our first one billion people happening here around the year 1800.
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And then we hit our second billion a lot faster.
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Three, four, five, six, seven, and now up to eight billion people.
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And so a lot of those increases are really happening because we're living longer.
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Dystopian Paradise wants to know, in terms of age, what state has the oldest population?
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The oldest state is Maine, which has 23% of the population above age 65.
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Classic Man wants to know which state has the youngest population.
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That state would be Utah, which has 27% of the population under the age of 18.
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You may notice that Utah is home to a pretty sizable Mormon population, which tends to have higher births than other populations in the United States.
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At Justin L.
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Ung's, what's the biggest difference between millennials and Gen Z?
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The biggest difference is that globally, Gen Z, or those people who were born from 1997 to 2012,
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are larger than millennials who were born between 1981 and 1996.
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But in the United States, millennials are larger than Gen Z.
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Gen Z, though, is much more racially diverse.
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So the percentage of Gen Z who are multiracial is about 4% in the United States, whereas it's only 2% among millennials in the U.S.
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The share of people who are Hispanic is actually about 4%
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higher among Gen Z in the U.S than it is among millennials in the U.S.
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At JMP Freedom, WTF is the sandwich generation.
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Sandwich generation might sound delicious, but it's pretty terrible.
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It's those who are sandwiched between caring for younger children and caring for older parents.
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People are having children later in life.
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There's a trend towards that in the United States, in Japan, South Korea, Germany.
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And so you could end up with a situation where a woman is taking care of her one
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or two children at the same time
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that she's caring for her aging parents who may live with her
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or who need her to come by and help with medical appointments or grocery shopping.
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Some people will call this the Panini generation, actually, because these women are being squeezed in the middle.
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From Reddit, what would happen if all illegal immigrants were deported?
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Well, in the United States, we've got a stock of around 12 million people in the US.
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Lots of things would probably happen.
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There are certain industries in the United States that actually are really heavily dependent on that kind of labor.
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So the agricultural industry, for example.
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So you could expect having a harder time getting people to fill those jobs, and then prices for food would rise.
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The construction industry is much more heavily dependent on that labor, and so we expect it to take longer to get houses built, and prices would rise for that as well.
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In the United States, there are over 16 million people who live in a household with at least one undocumented person.
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Over 7% of all kids in the United States have at least one undocumented parents.
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So we would see families being ripped apart through these deportations.
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Eric Kroll wants to know, How do factors like income, race, geographic location, etc. affect life expectancy?
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They affect it a lot.
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Let's look at income first.
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So we have here a map of the U.S with the counties drawn out.
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We can see here that some of the poorest counties in the United States, like McDowell County, West Virginia,
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with a median income of under $29,000 a year, has a life expectancy well below the U.S national average.
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The same is true for Buffalo County, South Dakota, with a median income of just over $30,000 a year.
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East Carroll, Paris, Louisiana, also one of our poorest counties.
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And Miss Aquina County, Mississippi, life expectancy of under 75 years and median household income of only over $17,000 a year.
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It's not just powerful geography on the U.S scale, it's also powerful at the global scale.
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So here's a couple of different ways to slice it.
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Let's stay over here with this yellow color for now.
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Global life expectancy in 2024.
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High-income countries, life expectancy is 81 years.
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Middle income, 73 years.
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But low-income countries, life expectancy is only 65 years.
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Most people know this, but of course, sex matters.
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Females tend to live longer than males.
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76 years on average globally versus 71 years for their male counterparts.
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Mostly demographers will nail down that men tend to be in riskier jobs.
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When you get to the very oldest ages, they're very heavily female with women outliving men.
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So that's something that countries either are or should be talking about when it comes to health care, social security.
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These things all go together.
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They all affect the life expectancy of an individual.
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And of course, we aggregate that and they affect the life expectancy of a country as well.
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At Chaudish Hamblino wants to know, what country has the lowest life expectancy?
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I can't take another 62 years of this pish.
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Okay, well, lowest life expectancy at birth for males is in Chad and that's at 53 years.
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Lowest life expectancy at birth for females is in Nigeria and that is 55 years.
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At Izaz Real, what country has the highest life expectancy?
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Well, the answer for males is tiny Monaco, which has only 40,000 people, but where males born can be expected to live to age 84.
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Monaco and other small countries like Liechtenstein, they're really rich.
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They're small and rich, and so we know that income level actually is very highly correlated with life expectancy.
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If you're thinking in terms of, you know, countries you'd be more familiar with, those bigger ones, in Japan, females live to about 87 years.
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Isaac wants to know, people are living longer, but are they living healthier at the same time?
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Healthy life expectancy is one thing, and overall life expectancy is another.
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Healthy life expectancy is how many years can you expect to
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live in good health versus how many years you might live overall.
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I think ideally for any of us, you want that gap to be as narrow as possible.
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So if we look at Haiti, for example, you're only expected to live to age 56 healthy, and then overall to age 64.
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That's a gap of eight years.
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This gap here really represents the end of life lived in less than ideal health.
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That may mean something as little as difficulty with something like going up the stairs all the way to being bedridden.
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It does affect how long you could work, for example.
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How many years would you live healthy after retirement?
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Could you have actually retired later?
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That's something that's really relevant to all these countries as their populations age.
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So Haiti's at one end of the spectrum.
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Japan's at the other end of the spectrum.
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They could expect to live longer in good health to age 74 and then overall to age 84.
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Now that's a gap of 10 years.
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The United States, though, is an outlier because our gap between healthy years lived and overall years lived is 12 years.
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So that means the average American lives the end of their life many more years less than ideal health than somebody in, say, even Bangladesh, where it's only 10 years,
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or in Canada where it's 11.
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So when I think about how well will the U.S fare as its population ages,
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I really worry because it is very expensive to be sick in the United States of America.
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There's some real dings to the economy in our future if we have this kind of gap, 12 years between our healthy life expectancy and our overall life expectancy.
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New guy, username one.
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What's the most populous country on earth?
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Well, the most populous country on earth is India.
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And the second most populous is China.
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Both of them have about 1.4 billion people.
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Far below that comes the United States, followed by Indonesia and Pakistan.
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If we count up the most populous countries, those five, plus if we add in Nigeria and Brazil,
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together those would make up a little over half of the world's population.
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At Arroyo Liotta, so how did China's one-child policy work out?
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So the one-child policy from 1979 was a law the Chinese government put in place saying
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that mostly everyone could only have one child.
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Naturally, in a population, there are about 105 boys born for every 100 girls.
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That's just the way that it happens.
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So that's represented by this orange line here.
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And because there are really strong norms of male preference, of son preference in China, most of these families wanted to have a boy.
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And that's why when you have restriction to just one child and your first child is a girl, we see that those that did have a second or third child,
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you know, maybe those who were part of ethnic minority populations that were exempt from this one-child policy,
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those second and third children had far more skewed sex ratios at birth, and that is because of sex-selective abortion.
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Now, when I was born, which was more that way, there were no ultrasound technology.
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Like, my parents would not have known if I was a boy or a girl before I came out.
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These folks here, they could see in utero whether or not this child would be a boy or a girl.
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And many of them, as we see, took measures to make sure that they would have a boy.
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So when we're looking at a sex ratio at birth for the third baby born, somewhere here around just a little bit before the year 2000,
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there were nearly 160 males born for every 100 females born.
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A tremendously skewed sex ratio at birth, a lot different from the natural sex ratio of 105 males born for every 100 females.
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If these were people who were born just before the year 2000, they are now entering their late 20s.
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And that means that there are millions more males than there are females of these different ages.
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So China is already a country with well below replacement fertility rates and a rapidly shrinking population.
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It certainly does not help the population grow any faster
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that there are millions of missing females of reproductive ages that would have been born without the one-child policy.
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A Claude asks, What change in demographics are you concerned about?
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One trend that people are concerned about is a youthful population.
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So this would be one where a huge proportion of the population is of younger ages.
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Think children or teenagers.
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A place like Niger or Mali having some of the youngest populations in the world, they are at a greater risk of having coups, more political instability.
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But there are also opportunities associated with these types of youthful populations.
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Working age populations are shrinking, so a youthful population actually has lots of opportunity for economic growth.
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Wholesome E.
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Coli asks, what does demography mean?
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At the broadest level, demography is just studying human populations.
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We're thinking about those human population changes.
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And with those, there are just three ingredients to think about fertility changes, mortality changes, and migration changes, or shifts in births, deaths, and migration.
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Those in different combinations give you different outcomes and gives us a lot to study.
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Kiwi75 asks, let's look at which countries are growing fastest.
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Growing economy is what we need.
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The two fastest growing countries are South Sudan and Chad whose populations are growing at about six percent a year.
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South Sudan and Chad are in Africa and Sub-Saharan Africa is is a region of the world with the highest fertility rates.
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And so one out of every four children in the world will actually be African by the year 2050.
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That's because fertility rates are lower in other regions and they're higher in sub-Saharan Africa.
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Northern Africa, however, does actually have lower fertility rates.
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If we think about what would make a population grow, it's having lots of people of reproductive ages and a high number of births per person.
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Over half of the world's projected population growth between now and 2050 will come from just eight countries.
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Now that includes India, which interestingly enough, is a country that has below replacement fertility rates, fewer than two children born per woman on average.
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So why is it still growing and why is it contributing so much to world population growth?
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That's the momentum of the past.
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Those cohorts of women of reproductive ages are larger from when fertility rates were higher in the past.
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So the average number of children born per woman is smaller now, but there are a lot of those women.
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At Misa Alexeev, why do Latin American migrants to the United States have such a high birth rate?
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After all, their birth rate is low in their homeland.
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Or Latinos come to the United States with a very high total fertility rate?
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Well, you're right, that actually in the homeland, those fertility rates are lower.
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If you look at this map, those blue countries represent the two thirds of Latin American countries with below replacement fertility, so below two.
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Even these handful in gray that are above, They're not that far above, like Bolivia, the total fertility rate of 2.5 children born per woman.
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Think about someone who comes to the United States as an immigrant.
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They're typically of working ages, which also means that they're typically of reproductive ages.
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It just so happens that they're of those ages where they're more likely to have children.
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So it's not really true that they have such a high birth rate.
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It's just true that they tend to come of ages where they are more likely to be having children.
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We also know that when people stay in a country, when an immigrant stays in a country,
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very quickly the norms shift to match that of the reproductive norms around the native-born population.
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So within a generation, you usually see those immigrant fertility rates come right down to where the native-born population is.
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At underscore Jan underscore P, how are illegal immigrants counted?
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Well, first we want to think about how anybody is counted.
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In the United States and many other countries, there is a census around every 10 years or so.
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But along the way, in between those times, we have regular surveys like the Current Population Survey or the American Community Survey.
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And so you can kind of put these together to get a snapshot of what the population would look like.
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If you want to know how many illegal or irregular immigrants there are in a population, you would take the number of legal migrants that you know,
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and then you would take what you know from these censuses about how many people are in an area
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and this residual or this difference is the estimate of those people who are here outside the legal system.
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And it is an estimate.
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Some people don't answer.
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Sometimes you can think about somebody who is in the country illegally, lives in a household with people who are there legally.
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And so the head of household might fill out the census and say how many people are living there, but it doesn't quite track with how many people are in the area that, you know, through legal immigration means.
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And so you can kind of look at those leftover numbers to estimate that.
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We always take these with a grain of salt, but demographers do use all their context clues and use all the data to try to estimate that.
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At Weekly Humorist, a new study says that in the future most of the world will live in megacities, and their office will be in any of the window stools at Starbucks that can reach an outlet.
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Well, this is certainly what sci-fi would tell us about megacities, which is amalgamations of population in areas of 10 million or more.
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I don't necessarily think it's the case, but it will depend on where you are in the world.
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I mean, there's countries like Bangladesh, for example, they just frankly don't have any extra space.
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So we do see really densely populated areas.
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There are people who are leaving rural areas for urban areas to seek better economic opportunity.
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Year 1800, for example, only about 3% of the world's population lived in urban areas.
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Now we have over 58% of the world's population living in urban areas.
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So generally there is a trend towards moving in that direction.
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We also see the opposite we had seen during the pandemic some people leaving those urban cores for smaller cities
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or suburban areas tbd on how
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that shakes out in the future at rod t3 how do mortality rates in the u.s compare to other countries
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so with that you're asking about the number of people dying per 1000
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so if you're japan you would have a higher mortality rate
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because you have a lot of older people than maybe a country
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that actually has a less healthy population i bet what you really want want to know about is life expectancy, especially life expectancy at birth.
362
How many years would a person born today be expected to live?
363
And in the United States, life expectancy at birth is about 78 years old.
364
Even Canada, our neighbor to the north, has a life expectancy at birth of 82 years.
365
U.S life expectancy has not really been keeping pace with increases the way that we would expect it to.
366
And that's because health in the U.S is frankly really bad.
367
And in terms of access to health care, that can be really uneven from rural to urban areas or by race as well.
368
A non-Hispanic black woman in the United States is three
369
and a half times more likely to die during pregnancy or shortly thereafter than a non-Hispanic white woman.
370
So all of these things combined, the opioid crisis, another factor in there, these drive U.S life expectancy lower.
371
From Reddit, Ronin Solutions says, Ukraine's population is nosediving.
372
Can anything be done?
373
How can Ukraine build a future in the face of ominous population statistics?
374
That's a great question.
375
About 10 million people have left since the war started.
376
And this is a country that already had a history of emigration or e-migration, people leaving for opportunities in Western Europe, for example, for work.
377
It's also a country that already had well below replacement fertility rates.
378
So with fewer births and lots of people leaving, they are having a serious situation with a population that is shrinking.
379
and there's not really much that can be done about it.
380
We know from countries around the world, everywhere from Germany to Canada to Japan,
381
that governments can play very little role in raising fertility rates
382
through things like tax incentives or paying for different credits for having children.
383
So not much can be done on that.
384
When the war ends and the country begins to rebuild, hopefully that will open up lots of economic opportunity and the peace there will attract some people to come back.
385
Some of those 10 million people may come back and start to build lives there.
386
So those are all the questions for today.
387
I hope you have seen that demography is a really powerful lens with
388
which to view this complex world of 8 billion people.
389
Thanks for watching Population Support.
📺 نفس القناة
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الانطباعات الأولى
تعتبر هذه المحادثة في الفيديو مادة ممتازة لممارسة المحادثة الإنجليزية، حيث تتضمن معلومات مثيرة حول التركيبة السكانية، مما يجذب انتباه المستمعين. المتحدث، جينيفر شوبا، تقدم المعلومات بأسلوب سهل الفهم مع نغمة مشوقة، مما يجعل من السهل على المتعلمين متابعة الحديث والتفاعل معه. المحتوى غني بالحقائق المثيرة، مما يضمن أن يبقى المتعلمون مهتمين ومتفاعلين.
تحليل الجمل
لنأخذ بعض الجمل من الحوار لفهم كيف تبدو طبيعية:
- "هناك حوالي 108 مليار شخص عاشوا على وجه الأرض." - هذه الجملة تعبر عن حقيقة واضحة وتستخدم عددًا كبيرًا مما يجعلها مثيرة للاهتمام.
- "النسبة الأكبر من سكان العالم هم البالغون." - استخدام كلمة "الأكبر" يجعل الأمر أكثر وضوحًا ويعزز الفهم.
- "تسهم الهجرة كثيرًا في نمو السكان في الولايات المتحدة." - توضح هذه الجملة كيف تؤثر الهجرة على التركيبة السكانية بطريقة اقتصادية.
هذه الجمل تظهر استخدامًا جيدًا للغة، مما يجعلها مثالية للتعلم. يمكن للمتعلمين استخدام طريقة التظليل في الإنجليزية (shadowing) لتكرار هذه الجمل وتحسين نطقهم ومهاراتهم في التحدث.
روتين الممارسة
لتحسين مهاراتك في المحادثة، يمكنك اتباع روتين بسيط قائم على إعادة التسجيل. إليك خطوات يمكنك اتباعها:
- استمع إلى مقطع الفيديو بعناية.
- كرر كل جملة بصوت عالٍ بعد المتحدث، مع التركيز على النغمة والإيقاع.
- سجل صوتك أثناء التكرار، واستمع إلى التسجيل الخاص بك لتقييم أدائك.
- كرر هذه العملية عدة مرات حتى تشعر بالراحة مع النطق.
تعتبر هذه الطريقة، والمعروفة بـ "طريقة التظليل في الإنجليزية"، فعالة جداً لتحسين مهارات التحدث. يمكنك استخدام مواقع مخصصة لـ "shadow speak" لتسهيل هذه العملية. استمتع بالتعلم وكن مثابرًا، وسترى تقدمًا سريعًا في مهاراتك في المحادثة!
القواعد في هذا الفيديو
أكثر التراكيب التي يستخدمها المتحدث، مع العبارات نفسها من الفيديو:
| التركيب | في الفيديو |
|---|---|
| الجمل الشرطية if + جملة، will/would + فعل — شرط ونتيجته | if you answered Asian Americans, you would win · If we think about what would make · if you're japan you would have |
| المضارع التام المستمر have/has been + -ing — حدث بدأ سابقًا وما زال مستمرًا | has been declining · has actually been changing · has been growing |
| المضارع التام have/has + اسم المفعول — حدث ماضٍ ما زال له أثر الآن | have ever lived · have been · have ever taken |
| المبني للمجهول be + اسم المفعول — التركيز على ما يحدث لا على من يفعله | are affected · would be concerned · were born |
ما هي تقنية التظليل الصوتي؟
التظليل الصوتي (Shadowing) تقنية تعلم لغة مدعومة علمياً، طُورت أصلاً لتدريب المترجمين الفوريين المحترفين. الطريقة بسيطة لكنها قوية: تستمع لصوت إنجليزي أصلي وتكرره فوراً بصوت عالٍ — كظل يتبع المتحدث بتأخير 1-2 ثانية. تُظهر الأبحاث تحسناً كبيراً في دقة النطق والتنغيم والإيقاع وربط الأصوات والاستماع والطلاقة.