تدريب Shadowing: Why Ukraine Is Doomed | Episode 6 - تعلم التحدث بالإنجليزية عبر الفيديو
اختر وضع التدريب
كل وضع يفتح غرفة تدريب بملء الشاشة.
514 جمل
إذا كانت الجمل قصيرة أو طويلة جدًا، انقر على Edit لتعديلها.
1
I would strongly encourage people not to believe what they read
2
in the mainstream media about how well Ukraine is doing in this war and how poorly Russia is doing.
3
The West is leading Ukraine down the primrose path.
4
And the Israelis are executing a genocide in Gaza.
5
It's not China's fault that it wants to be powerful.
6
So if you get into trouble and you dial 911, there's nobody at the other end.
7
Hi, this is John Mearsheimer, and in today's episode, I'd like to talk about the situation in Ukraine,
8
what's happening in the war between Russia on one side and Ukraine and the West on the other side.
9
I think if you read the newspapers in the West every day and you listen to the mainstream media in the West,
10
and this is certainly true in Ukraine as well, you get a picture that the Russians are in real trouble.
11
They're struggling in this war.
12
The future looks bleak for the Russians.
13
And in contrast to the Russian situation, the Ukrainians are actually doing quite well, especially since they've adopted drones on the battlefield
14
and they're waging this long -range drone campaign and one has the sense
15
that at least we have a stalemate here
16
and it may be the case that the ukrainians are turning the tide
17
and when negotiations eventually start the ukrainians will be in a quite favorable position
18
and of course we're not talking just about the ukrainians we're talking about the ukrainians
19
and the west
20
because they are something of a tag team i disagree almost
21
completely with this view i've long argued as many viewers know
22
that the russians would eventually win an ugly victory and i think
23
if you look at what's actually happening in the war the russians are winning the war
24
and the ukrainians are actually in terrible shape.
25
Again, I don't think you get this picture from looking at what's in the mainstream media
26
or listening to policymakers in the West speak.
27
But I think they're wrong.
28
I think there's a propaganda campaign at play here.
29
And I want to tell you a story that is at odds with this propaganda campaign.
30
I want to tell you how I think about the war.
31
And I want to first focus on the battlefield what's going on between both sides the ukrainians
32
and the russians on the battlefield then i want to talk about the strategic bombing campaign or the air war
33
that is being waged between the two sides then i want
34
to talk about the state of outside support for ukraine
35
and here we're talking basically about western support for ukraine what it looks like today
36
and where it might be headed then i want to talk a bit about politics
37
or the political situation inside of ukraine itself
38
and then i'll sum up by talking about where the war is today
39
and where i think it's headed
40
so let me start by first talking about the battlefield
41
and the key to keep in mind here is
42
that this is a war of attrition i don't think this is uh news to
43
anybody who's watching this video but i do think you want to keep in mind that this war
44
is a slugfest this is a case of two armies standing toe -to -toe on the battlefield field.
45
And in a war of attrition, what really matters more than anything else is the balance of manpower
46
or the balance of troops that each side has and the balance of weaponry.
47
And in many ways, that can be reduced to the balance of firepower.
48
So let me talk first about the balance of forces
49
or the balance of troops up on the front lines i think
50
that the russians at this point have a significant advantage
51
which is hardly surprising because the population differences between the two sides is
52
so great and because the troops are drawn from the population
53
if one side has a much bigger population you would expect
54
that side to have more troops up on the front lines than the other side
55
And I would estimate that at this point,
56
the Russians have a population advantage of roughly four and a half to one.
57
It's probably close to five to one at this point in time.
58
But that's really a massive advantage for the Russians.
59
Just think about that even
60
if it's just four to one a four to one advantage
61
in population size favoring the russians tells you they're going to
62
have a lot more troops up on the front line than the ukrainians are
63
and of course that is the case we know
64
that the russians have somewhere on the order of a two -to -one to three -to -one advantage in frontline troops.
65
And this problem for the Ukrainians is exacerbated by the fact that they have a significant problem with draft dodging,
66
and they have a significant problem with AWOLs.
67
AWOLs are people who run away from the battlefield.
68
They're soldiers who were sent up to the battlefield to fight, but at some point, they flee the battlefield
69
and we know from listening to the former Minister of Defense in Ukraine speak
70
that Ukraine has a huge problem with both a walls and
71
draft dodging
72
so here you have an army that's probably outnumbered probably close
73
to 3 to 1 in terms of number of troops that has inside it a significant AWOL and draft dodging problem.
74
So the balance of forces favors the Russians over the Ukrainians.
75
Moreover, when you talk about the balance of forces up on the front lines, you have to take into account the force to space ratio.
76
In other words, do the Ukrainians have enough troops up on the front lines
77
to thickly populate the forward edge of the battle area
78
or do they have a lack of troops
79
which produces a situation where there are gaps in the front line remember there's a 1200 kilometer front line
80
that has to be covered and there is an abundance of evidence coming from ukrainian sources
81
that the ukrainians do not have enough troops to thickly populate the front lines
82
and what's really saved them in this situation has been drones
83
drones have been something of a stopgap in other words the Ukrainians can leave holes in the front line
84
and then fill those lines with drones and then if the Russians do
85
push through a particular gap they can move reserve troops to close the gap
86
But this is a significant problem for the Russians.
87
So you see, when you look at the number of troops up on the front line,
88
the Russians significantly outnumber the Ukrainians,
89
and number two, the Ukrainians do not have enough troops to thickly populate the front lines.
90
Then we go to the matter of weaponry, and here we're talking about firepower.
91
there's no question that throughout the entire war the russians have had a significant advantage in artillery
92
and nothing has changed in that regard and
93
if anything the ukrainians are having more difficulty than ever getting artillery from the west
94
and that includes the united states
95
and one thing you want to remember about russia is
96
that it has a very formidable industrial base that can produce huge numbers of weapons on a monthly basis.
97
So there's no shortage of artillery on the Russian side, whereas there is a shortage of artillery on the Ukrainian side.
98
And as I'm sure most of the viewers know, throughout the course of this war, there's been talk about the Ukrainians being outnumbered in terms of artillery,
99
sometimes five to one sometimes seven to one
100
and even sometimes ten to one furthermore
101
and this cannot be underestimated the russians have a huge inventory of glide bombs
102
that they have been launching at the ukrainian forces on the
103
ground pretty much since the start of the war these glide
104
bombs are basically smart bombs they're old -fashioned iron bombs that have a special kit put on them that allows those bombs
105
to land with precision on the chosen target.
106
And estimates are that the Russians have launched about 100 ,000 glide bombs against Ukrainian forces since the war started,
107
and they're now averaging somewhere in the range of 200 glide bombs per day against Ukrainian forces.
108
So when you think about the balance of firepower here, you have to take into account artillery and you have to take into account these glide bombs.
109
And the Russians, as I said, have a significant advantage in terms of artillery.
110
And in terms of glide bombs, I just pointed out what an impressive arsenal of glide bombs the Russians have.
111
At the same time, the Ukrainians have hardly any glide bombs at all.
112
So the Russians have an overwhelming advantage in terms of glide bombs, a significant advantage in terms of artillery.
113
The only place where you have something of a balance in
114
terms of firepower up on the front lines has to do with drones.
115
And there's no question that both the Russians and the Ukrainians have a formidable force of drones up on the front line.
116
And as I said before, these drones have played a key role in allowing the Ukrainians to compensate for the fact
117
that they don't have enough troops to cover the front line.
118
So drones have been a savior in a very important way for the Ukrainians.
119
And I would argue that in the absence of drones, this war would have been over a long time ago.
120
Because without drones, both the balance of firepower and the balance of manpower is so lopsided in Russia's favor,
121
of course, that I think the Russians would have rolled up the Ukrainians a year or two ago.
122
But the fact is that drones are ever -present on the front lines, and there you have a rough balance of power.
123
Now, what about Russian casualties?
124
You hear all these stories in the news about the astronomical Russian casualty levels on the front lines,
125
and there are these stories that have appeared that say that your average
126
Russian conscript will only live 20 to 30 hours when he is sent to the front lines.
127
Just think about it.
128
The argument is that you take a Russian conscript, you send him to the front lines,
129
and he'll be dead somewhere between 20 and 30 hours after arriving at the front lines.
130
John Ratcliffe, who is the head of the CIA, has actually repeated this argument.
131
And this argument, of course, fuels the claim that the Russians are suffering massive casualties on a daily basis,
132
and well over 100 ,000 Russians have died or been severely wounded.
133
These numbers are ridiculous.
134
There's no question that the Russians have suffered a few hundred thousand deaths.
135
I don't deny that for one second.
136
This is deadly combat for sure.
137
But the idea that your average Russian recruit only lasts somewhere between 20 to 30 hours is,
138
I think, it's fair to say ludicrous.
139
And in fact, if you look carefully at how the Russians are waging the war,
140
they are waging it in a way that is designed to minimize the number of casualties.
141
This cannot be emphasized enough.
142
The Russians are moving very slowly and very carefully,
143
and they are privileging firepower over manpower in their assaults.
144
They want to do everything they can to use firepower to
145
eliminate the Ukrainian forces before they bring soldiers to bear in the fight.
146
And the reason here is that the Russians are deeply interested in not seeing their fighting forces die in large numbers.
147
I mean, you occasionally see reference to the fact
148
that Russian commanders force their troops to engage in frontal attacks where they get mowed down by Ukrainian firepower.
149
There's no evidence that this is happening.
150
The Russians are not engaging in frontal attacks.
151
They're moving forward in a very methodical way, depending very heavily on firepower, as I said before, to clear the way for the attacking forces.
152
and doing everything they can to keep the number of casualties down
153
on the other hand it's quite clear that the ukrainians are suffering significant casualties
154
budanov who is the head of or was formerly the head of ukrainian intelligence has recently said
155
that the ukrainians need 30 000 new troops every month
156
if the ukrainians need 30 000 new troops every month this implies
157
that they're losing 30 000 troops every month now some of
158
those troops may have been lost by uh by desertion by the troops going a wall that's a serious possibility
159
So let's say they're not losing 30 ,000 troops in terms of casualties every month.
160
And when we talk about casualties here, we're not talking about people who are lightly wounded.
161
We're talking about people who are killed or severely wounded and cannot come back into the fight.
162
So let's assume that the Ukrainians are losing 25 ,000.
163
So we're modifying Budanov's number of 30 ,000 and
164
if they're losing 25 ,000 troops a month they have to
165
replace those 25 ,000 25 ,000 over 12 months is 300 ,000 troops
166
that would mean that Ukraine according to its own numbers is losing 300 ,000 troops a year
167
that is a huge number for an army
168
that is outnumbered to begin with so the point
169
that i'm making to you here with regard to russian casualties
170
and ukrainian casualties is that these claims about the numbers
171
that the russians are losing are wildly inflated And at the same time,
172
you do not want to lose sight of the number of casualties that the Ukrainians are suffering.
173
And of course, this is hardly surprising when you take into account that the balance of firepower, when you look at things like artillery and glide bombs,
174
greatly favors the Russians over the Ukrainians.
175
Now, one other issue we want to talk about regarding what's happening on the battlefield is the fact
176
that the Russians are taking territory very slowly many people look at the slow pace at
177
which the Russians are capturing territory and they conclude
178
that this is evidence
179
that the Russians are failing to execute this war in what
180
one might call a satisfactory way I have a couple points
181
to make here first of all one of the reasons
182
that the russians are taking territory very slowly is
183
because they're moving very cautiously and they're moving very cautiously
184
and very deliberately
185
because they want to minimize casualties my point my previous point
186
about minimizing casualties is linked to this point about the speed at
187
which the russians are taking territory there's no question they're taking territory very slowly
188
and they're doing that again
189
because they want to minimize casualties furthermore the Russians are fighting
190
on terrain where they have to go into large towns
191
and cities and capture those cities and to defeat the Ukrainians in those large towns
192
and in those cities is a difficult task
193
and it's a time -consuming task
194
and there's no way as the russians move from east to west in areas like the donbass
195
that they can take towns
196
and cities quickly it's just not in the cards the ukrainians are clearly fighting fiercely in those cities
197
and it takes time for the russians to capture territory
198
but the point we want to keep in mind here is
199
that the russians are slowly but steadily capturing ukrainian territory more
200
and more ukrainian territory and at the same time
201
and this is very important in a war of attrition the russians are killing
202
or badly wounding large numbers of ukrainians
203
and making it very difficult for the ukrainians to stay in the fight
204
so i think when you put all these factors together
205
and you look at what's happening up on the front lines there's no question in my mind
206
that the Russians are winning on the battlefield, that the Ukrainians are losing.
207
And given drones, it has been difficult for the Russians to knock out the Ukrainians.
208
There's no question about that.
209
But at the same time, there is no question that the Ukrainians,
210
given the fact that they're outnumbered in terms of troops and that they're outnumbered in terms of firepower,
211
that they are destined to lose on the battlefield field.
212
Now, let me switch gears and talk about the air campaign.
213
And let me first just talk about the inventory of weaponry on both sides,
214
and then talk about the strategies that both sides are employing
215
and how those strategies are likely to affect the outcome of the war.
216
First of all, Well, let me talk about the Russian inventory.
217
The Russians have a huge inventory of ballistic missiles and cruise missiles that they have been using against the Ukrainians.
218
Most estimates are that the Russians have launched about 6 ,000 ballistic missile and cruise missile attacks against Ukraine.
219
in addition to the ballistic missiles and the cruise missiles the russians have as i said before
220
these glide bombs these smart bombs that they can launch from the air
221
and with pinpoint accuracy hit targets on the ground and as i said before they've launched a hundred thousand glide bombs
222
in addition the russians are now getting assistance from north korean short -range ballistic missiles
223
because the North Koreans are fighting side by side with the Russians and they are bringing ballistic missiles with them.
224
And very importantly, the Russians have a sophisticated inventory of drones, jet -powered drones.
225
The Jiran -4 and the Jiran -5 are jet -powered drones that are giving the Ukrainians fits.
226
If you look at the Ukrainian media, if you look at the Kiev Independent, for example, it's quite clear
227
that the Russians are having a powerful effect in terms of
228
waging the air war against Ukraine with all of these new jet -powered drones
229
that the Ukrainians are having a very difficult time shooting down
230
and these drones are not only difficult to shoot down
231
but they are also very accurate
232
because they are steered to the target by ground operators by
233
Russian ground operators they're not just simply pre -programmed to go after a particular target
234
and then sent on their way on the contrary they're basically maneuvered to their target by ground -based operators
235
and they fly at reasonably high altitudes.
236
They have the ability to maneuver.
237
And the Ukrainians are having a devil of a time dealing with this massive inventory of jet -powered drones
238
that the Russians have.
239
So when you look at what the Russians have, you see, again, a huge inventory of ballistic missiles,
240
cruise missiles, glide bombs, and jet -powered drones.
241
And now they have North korean ballistic missiles at their disposal as well
242
if you look at what the ukrainians have as i said
243
before they have virtually no glide bombs they have virtually no
244
ballistic missiles of any consequence they do have some cruise missiles mainly cruise missiles
245
that they've gotten from the west these are the storm shadows that they've gotten from the british
246
But they have not gotten large numbers of cruise missiles.
247
The number of cruise missiles
248
that the Ukrainians are firing at the Russians pales in comparison to the number of cruise missiles
249
that the Russians are firing at the Ukrainians.
250
And there's no reason to think that's going to change anytime soon uh
251
and uh in terms of drones there's no question
252
that um the ukrainians have a significant drone force this is
253
a situation that's analogous to the battlefield to go back to the battlefield remember what i said i thought
254
that drones had been ukraine's savior on the battlefield my argument was
255
that without drones uh ukraine would have lost on the battlefield
256
in my opinion at least a year ago maybe two years ago drones have kept them in the fight
257
and in terms of this inventory of strategic air assets
258
i think drones are where the uh where the ukrainians have been by
259
and large able to match the russians they don't have a
260
sophisticated force of jet -powered drones that's the equivalent of what the russians have
261
but nevertheless there's no question that the ukrainians have a powerful force of drones
262
that they have been using but otherwise
263
if you move away from drones you look at all these
264
other weapons the russians have a decisive advantage in a number of cruise missiles,
265
ballistic missiles, glide bombs, and so forth and so on.
266
So that's the basic inventory.
267
But what's more important than the inventory, or at least as important than the inventory,
268
is the question of how you employ those air assets to affect the outcome of the war.
269
And I think you can talk about an air campaign in two different ways.
270
First, you can envision an air campaign as a punishment campaign.
271
And with a punishment campaign,
272
you end up killing lots of people or wrecking the other side's economy
273
or damaging the other side's economy in ways
274
that cause great pain for the population and you force the population to put pressure on the government to end the war.
275
So the idea is that if you hit a city
276
and you take out the energy network in that city and people don't have water or they don't have heating,
277
people will rise up and put pressure on the government to end the war
278
or the government itself will say enough is enough
279
so much pain is being inflicted on our population
280
so much punishment is being inflicted on our population
281
that this war has to be ended that's one way you
282
can think about employing air power second way you can think
283
about employing air power is you tear apart military infrastructure in the rear areas of your adversary
284
and you wreck the other side's economy in ways that affect its ability to wage war up on the front lines
285
so you're not in this second with this second strategy you're not punishing the civilian population.
286
You're not causing the civilian population to rise up against the government
287
or causing the government to say enough is enough because the civilian population is being so badly hurt.
288
No, the second strategy calls for doing great damage to the economy
289
and to military infrastructure in ways that influences the fighting between the two sides.
290
Now, I think up until recently, the Russian campaign really focused on the first strategy.
291
It was really, by and large, a punishment campaign.
292
And I think if you look at what Ukraine is doing, Ukraine's strategy has been and still is a punishment campaign.
293
And when we talk about Ukraine's air campaign here, we're talking about its drone campaign, right?
294
Basically, a punishment strategy
295
and as i say i think the russians have been waging
296
a punishment strategy up until recently as well punishment strategies just don't work just look at the damage that
297
russia has done with its air war against ukraine over the past few years
298
and there is zero evidence that it has caused ukraine to think about quitting the war
299
and the same thing is true
300
when you look at ukraine's drone campaign this is its long
301
-range drone campaign against the russian heartland there's no way that's
302
going to cause russia to quit the war punishment campaigns don't work
303
and the ukrainian punishment campaign against russia is a much less potent punishment campaign than the russian campaign against ukraine
304
and again the russian punishment campaign did not get Ukraine to quit
305
but what's happened here what's changed in the Russian campaign the Russian strategic bombing campaign is
306
that it has gone from a punishment campaign to a campaign that's designed to wreck the Ukrainian economy in ways
307
that will significantly influence events on the battlefield and that bombing campaign is also now directed at influencing
308
actual military events by going after targets in the rear areas of ukraine that contain military
309
infrastructure now what exactly am i talking about here in recent months what russia has done it
310
is that it has turned ukraine into a landlocked country the importance of this cannot be underestimated
311
because Ukraine depends heavily on its Black Sea ports to export
312
and import agricultural goods industrial goods
313
and military wherewithal military wherewithal you want to think about that
314
so what's happened here is that russia has concentrated on shutting down ports like odessa
315
and other ports along the black sea these are ukrainian ports
316
which is me which has made it virtually impossible for ukraine to import
317
and export goods be they military or economic out of those ports.
318
And this is why I said that what's happened here is Russia has turned Ukraine into a landlocked country.
319
This is having devastating effects on the Ukrainian economy.
320
There's no way that that could not be the case.
321
And we know from back in 2022, when those ports were shut down for a number of months
322
that it had then it then had devastating effects on the Ukrainian economy
323
so there's no question that given
324
that the Russians have shut down those black seaports turned Ukraine into a landlocked country
325
that this is going to go to great lengths this will
326
go to great lengths to damage severely the Ukrainian economy and this matters because the Ukrainian economy,
327
a healthy or reasonably healthy Ukrainian economy, or a functioning Ukrainian economy, is essential for supporting the troops on the front line.
328
On top of the damage that's being done to the Ukrainian economy, the fact is that lots of Russian,
329
lots of, excuse me, lots of Ukrainian military material came in through the Black sea ports
330
and that is no longer the case so weaponry precious weaponry
331
that was coming in through those ukrainian ports on the black sea are no longer coming in
332
and this too is having
333
having an effect on the battlefield furthermore
334
if you look at what the russians are doing to the transportation network inside of Russia.
335
They are wrecking railroad lines.
336
They are attacking locomotives.
337
They're destroying gas stations in droves in eastern Ukraine.
338
They're tearing apart road networks and rail lines as well.
339
And the end result of this is the transportation network inside of Ukraine is being badly damaged.
340
which not only hurts the economy,
341
but makes it very difficult to move material from the rear areas to the front line forces.
342
It's quite clear that if you look at retail warehouse storage,
343
retail warehouse storage inside of Ukraine, that estimates from high -level government officials are
344
that the russians have destroyed 90 percent of retail warehouse storage
345
which has a significant effect on the russian economy
346
and the russians up to now have either damaged or destroyed about 80 percent of ukraine's
347
energy infrastructure just think about the russians up to now have destroyed about 80 percent of destroyed
348
or damaged about 80 percent of ukraine's energy infrastructure a lot of
349
that has been repaired i want to be clear
350
but what the russians are now saying
351
that they're going to do is they're going to destroy
352
that energy infrastructure almost completely they're to purposely target that infrastructure
353
that energy infrastructure for the purpose of with the goal in mind of destroying it
354
so you can see what's happening here and that is
355
that the russians are no longer engaged in a punishment campaign
356
they're interested in wrecking the ukrainian economy to the point where
357
it will greatly hinder ukraine's ability to support the frontline forces
358
and in addition they're going after military infrastructure they're going after military targets in Ukraine's rear,
359
which of course will eventually weaken Ukraine's efforts on the front lines.
360
So what I am saying here is that when you look at what Russia is doing up on the front lines,
361
the successes that it's having up on the battlefield, and you couple that with the change that has recently taken place
362
and it the strategy it is employing in the air war it's quite clear
363
that the Russians are at a significant advantage
364
or have a significant advantage over the Ukrainians now just one final point on this
365
and that is if you look at the Ukrainian air campaign against Russia
366
which is being waged with drones there's no question that
367
that is inflicting punishment on russia we want to be very clear on
368
that point the ukrainian drone campaign is inflicting punishment on russia but that punishment campaign is not going to cause
369
russia to surrender or to reduce its goals in this war
370
if anything it's going to incentivize the russians to take more territory
371
and to ramp up its own air air campaign against ukraine
372
to the highest possible level so the ukrainians have no war winning strategy
373
when it comes to the air war and
374
when you read all these stories about how successful this drone attack or
375
that drone attack by ukraine against russia is you should understand
376
it's not going to influence the outcome of this war in any meaningful way
377
so that concludes my discussion of the military side
378
of the war i want to talk now about outside support
379
for ukraine as i think everybody understands ukraine could have never
380
stayed in this war without support from the west especially from the United States
381
and if you think about where we are today
382
and where we're headed it's quite clear
383
that US support for Ukraine has been reduced significantly since the
384
war started in February 2022 the United States under President Trump has made it clear
385
that what the White house wants to do is reduce the american burden of supporting ukraine
386
and shift that burden onto the shoulders of the europeans
387
so the united states is interested in reducing its commitment to ukraine to take this further remember
388
that the united states because of what's happened in the Gulf War has a significant shortage of precious munitions.
389
For example, it has a significant shortage of Patriot missiles.
390
The Ukrainians are desperate to get American Patriot missiles.
391
They need Patriot missiles to help defend against the ballistic missiles
392
and cruise missiles that the Russians are now firing at Ukraine in huge numbers.
393
But the United States has no Patriot missiles
394
that it can give to the Ukrainians the Ukrainians therefore have virtually no defense against the incoming ballistic
395
and cruise missiles from Russia and
396
that situation is not going to change anytime soon the United
397
States is not in a position where it can give lots of weaponry to Ukraine
398
and furthermore the United States as I said is interested in
399
shifting the burden of supporting ukraine from its shoulders to the european shoulders on top of all
400
that the united states has just initiated the study
401
to assess what sort of troop levels the united states should maintain in europe moving forward
402
and given the imperative of pivoting to asia
403
and giving what's going on in the middle east it's almost certain
404
that the united states is going to reduce its troop levels in europe in the not too distant future
405
and this is just going to be another sign of america's reduced commitment to Ukraine.
406
So you see, you have a situation here where the American commitment to Europe, I don't want to say it's been withering away,
407
that's too strong, but it has been greatly reduced over time.
408
It hasn't been reduced to zero, but the United States is no longer the loyal supporter of Ukraine that it once was.
409
And if you look at the European countries, relations between Poland and Ukraine have badly deteriorated.
410
The Poles have made it clear they will not fight in Ukraine under almost any circumstances.
411
There's a lot of bad blood these days between Poland
412
and Ukraine because Ukraine has been supporting or has been celebrating its history in World War II
413
uh in which uh ukrainian forces massacred poles which has enraged poles
414
and therefore polish ukrainian relations are terrible today and
415
if you look at what's happening inside in france
416
and germany it is possible that the right will win in both france
417
and germany in a future election And if the right wins in one of those elections,
418
it's likely that France or Germany will abandon its strong support for Ukraine,
419
because the right in Germany and the right in France have made it clear
420
that they have no love lost for NATO, number one
421
and number two they think it's time to end this formidable be it german or be it french
422
commitment to ukraine so when you look at the future
423
and you think about ukraine's heavy dependence on support from the united states
424
and from the europeans you don't see a pretty picture at all
425
and then i want to talk about what's going on inside
426
of ukraine first of all there's a lot of war weariness recent polls show
427
that 66 percent of ukrainians think it's time to negotiate an
428
end to the war only 24 this is roughly one out of every four ukrainians wants to continue this war.
429
Furthermore, if you look at Zelensky's standing inside of Ukraine,
430
there's no question that he still garners significant political support.
431
It's not like the body populist wants to throw him out of office.
432
But it's quite clear that if you were to have an election today,
433
uh it is likely that two or three other ukrainians would defeat him uh
434
because he is not the most popular leader anymore in ukraine
435
there are others like budanov who i was talking about before
436
his former defense minister fedorov and his former commanding general general zeluzhny all of whom are more popular than Zelensky.
437
So Zelensky has some political problems on the home front.
438
And then the final point I'd make about what's going on regarding Ukraine's home front is
439
that Zelensky was recently forced into a position where he had to fire both the Minister of Defense,
440
this is Fedorov, who is now interested in having an election because he thinks he could beat Zelensky in an election.
441
But he was not only forced to fire Fedorov, he was forced to fire General Sirsky as well.
442
And I believe that General Sirsky was a quite successful battlefield commander.
443
I think one of the reasons, not the only reason by any means, but one of the reasons that the Ukrainians have been able to hold out against the Russians
444
over time was because of General Sirsky, who was, I think, a quite competent military commander.
445
But anyway, Zelensky has been forced to fire Siersky.
446
He was forced to fire Fedorov.
447
And when you're in the middle of a tough war
448
and you have to simultaneously fire your minister of defense and the commanding general of your armed forces,
449
that tells you that you are in serious trouble.
450
So the point that I'm making here is that if you look inside Kyiv, there's all sorts of trouble brewing.
451
And if you look at the outside support for Kyiv, there's all sorts of trouble brewing there.
452
And then when you marry that to what's happening on the battlefield and what's happening in the strategic bombing campaigns,
453
this is a very bleak picture.
454
Now, where exactly is the war today?
455
The Russians have annexed four oblasts plus Crimea.
456
They've annexed somewhere on the order of 20 -plus percent of Ukrainian territory.
457
Of course, they don't control all of that territory,
458
but i would estimate they control slightly more than 80 percent of those four oblasts they control all of crimea
459
and about 80 percent of the four oblasts that they annexed
460
and they're of course in the process of conquering all of the territory in those four oblasts
461
so if the war ended today
462
ukraine would have lost about 20 of its territory not only has ukraine lost all this territory
463
but there's virtually no chance it's going to become a member
464
of nato first of all nato is a badly damaged institution
465
as a result of this war serious damage has been done to nato because of the Ukraine war,
466
and you see this very clearly in America's interest in reducing its presence in Europe,
467
reducing its influence in NATO, and basically letting the Europeans play a much larger role in terms of running the alliance.
468
So I think the alliance is in trouble.
469
But furthermore, there's no way you're going to get a European consensus to bring Ukraine into NATO.
470
And furthermore, given the state of Ukraine, given the damage that's been done to Ukraine, Ukraine will be in no position to enter NATO,
471
or the EU for that matter.
472
So again, you end the war today.
473
Russia controls a huge slice of Ukrainian territory in the east.
474
And furthermore, it has succeeded in preventing Ukraine from joining NATO.
475
finally huge destruction has been done to ukraine estimates are
476
that it'll take 600 billion dollars just think about
477
that 600 billion dollars to repair all the damage
478
that has been done to ukraine
479
and this doesn't take out take into account the demographic consequences all the people who have fled ukraine
480
and will never come back all the ukrainians who have died
481
before this war started it was commonplace for people to talk about ukraine being in a demographic death spiral
482
if anything that situation has only been exacerbated
483
so in terms of where we are today in the war were
484
that war to end today i think it's quite clear that ukraine is in a disastrous situation.
485
And I think there is no chance that Ukraine can reverse this situation.
486
Anybody who believes that Ukraine can recapture territory that it lost,
487
that it can wage a strategic bombing campaign
488
that can bring the Russians to their knees and get them to negotiate an agreement,
489
get the russians to negotiate an agreement that is favorable to ukraine
490
and reverses much of the damage
491
that has been done is living in a dream world this is just not going to happen the best
492
that the ukrainians can hope for at this point in time is freezing the status quo
493
and as i say
494
if you freeze the status quo this is a disastrous outcome
495
for ukraine it's a dysfunctional rump state it's lost at least
496
20 of its territory it's suffered enormous physical destruction large numbers
497
of people have left the country huge numbers of people have died this is a disaster
498
but the real problem is that this war is not over with
499
that the russians are on the march i do not deny for one second
500
that the russians are moving slowly but
501
when you look at the strategic bombing campaign
502
and the damage that's being done to ukraine
503
and you take into account the fact
504
that russia is capturing territory on the front lines
505
and it is killing more and more ukrainians again you want to remember
506
that general budanov says that ukraine needs 30 000 new men each month you understand
507
that as bleak as the situation is now.
508
It only gets worse with the passage of time.
509
So when all is said and done, I would strongly encourage people not to believe what they read
510
in the mainstream media about how well Ukraine is doing in this war and how poorly Russia is doing.
511
Because I think, if anything, Exactly the opposite is happening.
512
Thank you very much for listening to this video.
513
And I look forward to our next episode together.
514
Thank you.
تنزيل التطبيق
كل ما تحتاجه للتحدث بطلاقة
تقييم النطق بالذكاء الاصطناعيتقييم كل جملة
تدريب IPAأتقن كل صوت
المفرداتابنِ رصيدك من الكلمات
لعبة المفرداتتعلّم أثناء اللعب
نفس القناة
FOR YOU
فيديو موصى به
C12
152 جمل
Both Russia and America only pursue power, not principle, argues Moosa Haraj
Daily ConversationUniversity StudentsWorking Adults
C1113 جمل
Who Are the Houthis — and Why Can't Saudi Arabia Defeat Them? | Times Radio
Daily ConversationUniversity StudentsWorking Adults
C156 جمل
The Death of the Russian Army 1917 (WW1 Documentary)
Daily ConversationUniversity StudentsWorking Adults
C1291 جمل
Why did white men conquer the world?
Daily ConversationUniversity StudentsWorking Adults
C11
656 جمل
How TLOU2's Political Messaging Contradicts Itself
Daily ConversationUniversity StudentsWorking Adults
C12
150 جمل
John Mearsheimer: Why Russia Might NUKE Europe
IELTS PrepTOEFL PrepUniversity Students
C12
160 جمل
UNCENSORED: should the West be suspicious of Islam? Jonathan Sacerdoti, at the Oxford Union
Daily ConversationUniversity StudentsWorking Adults
C1221 جمل
Trita Parsi: Trump’s Iran Strategy Is A CATASTROPHE
Daily ConversationUniversity StudentsWorking Adults
C1180 جمل
SPEECH MASTERY | MARCO RUBIO: Decline Is a Choice! (English Subtitles)
Daily ConversationUniversity StudentsWorking Adults
C18
138 جمل
The Internet is Worse Than Ever – Now What?
Daily ConversationUniversity StudentsWorking Adults
B2260 جمل
Should America Leave NATO?
Daily ConversationUniversity StudentsWorking Adults
المفردات وملاحظات التحدث لهذا الدرس
هذا الدرس في المحادثة مبني على الفيديو “Why Ukraine Is Doomed”. أكثر الكلمات تكرارًا في الفيديو: russian, ukrainian, ukraine, drone, campaign. يحتوي هذا الفيديو على 514 جملة و6552 كلمة للتدرب على الترديد. مدة الكلام 51:04. يتكلم المتحدث بسرعة ثابتة، نحو 128 كلمة في الدقيقة، وهي سرعة مريحة للترديد. 82% من الكلمات ضمن أكثر 3,000 كلمة شيوعًا في الإنجليزية، ويُستحسن مراجعة الباقي قبل البدء.
أهم المفردات في هذا الفيديو
15 كلمة من الفيديو تستحق التعلّم، مع النطق والمعنى:
| الكلمة | النطق | المعنى |
|---|---|---|
| drone اسم | /dɹoʊn/ | يَعْسُوب, يَمْخُور |
| missile اسم | /ˈmɪs.aɪl/ | قَذِيفَة, صَارُوخ |
| battlefield اسم | /ˈbætəlˌfiːld/ | سَاحَة حَرْب, سَاحَة مَعْرَكَة |
| punishment اسم | /ˈpʌnɪʃmənt/ | عِقَاب, جَزَاء |
| cruise اسم | /kɹuz/ | رِحْلَة بَحْرِيَّة |
| inventory اسم | /ˈɪn.vən.tɹi/ | جَرْد |
| infrastructure اسم | /ˈɪnfɹəˌstɹʌkt͡ʃə/ | بِنْيَة تَحْتِيَّة |
| wage اسم | /weɪd͡ʒ/ | أَجْر, رَاتِب |
| furthermore ظرف | /ˈfɜː(ɹ).ðə(ɹ)ˌmɔː(ɹ)/ | عِلَاوَة عَلَى ذٰلِكَ, أَضِف إِلَى ذٰلِك |
| strategic صفة | /stɹəˈti.dʒɪk/ | إِسْتِرَاتِيجِيّ |
| capture فعل | /ˈkæp.(t)ʃɚ/ | أَسَرَ |
| wreck اسم | /ˈɹɛk/ | تَصَادُّم |
| commitment اسم | /kəˈmɪtmənt/ | التزام |
| employ فعل | /ɪmˈplɔɪ/ | وَظَّفَ |
| shortage اسم | /ˈʃɔː(ɹ)tɪd͡ʒ/ | عَجْز |
الأفعال المركبة التي ستسمعها
| الكلمة | المعنى |
|---|---|
| take out فعل | أَخْرَجَ |
| come back فعل | عَادَ, رَجَعَ |
| point out فعل | أَشَارَ |
جمل تستحق التكرار
جمل قصيرة وكاملة من الفيديو يمكنك استخدامها في الحديث اليومي:
- I think there's a propaganda campaign at play here.
- I don't deny that for one second.
- I think, it's fair to say ludicrous.
القواعد في هذا الفيديو
أكثر التراكيب التي يستخدمها المتحدث، مع العبارات نفسها من الفيديو:
| التركيب | في الفيديو |
|---|---|
| المضارع التام المستمر have/has been + -ing — حدث بدأ سابقًا وما زال مستمرًا | have been launching · have been using · have been waging |
| المضارع التام have/has + اسم المفعول — حدث ماضٍ ما زال له أثر الآن | they've adopted · has been · have had |
| المبني للمجهول be + اسم المفعول — التركيز على ما يحدث لا على من يفعله | being waged · might be headed · can be reduced |
| جمل الوصل who / which + جملة — معلومة إضافية عن شخص أو شيء | people who run · people who are · poles which has |
نطق يحتاج إلى انتباه
يستخدم المتحدث 70 من الصيغ المختصرة، مثل they're, don't, we're. انطقها بصيغتها القصيرة كما تسمعها.
- أصوات “th”: furthermore /ˈfɜː(ɹ).ðə(ɹ)ˌmɔː(ɹ)/, nevertheless /ˌnɛvɚðəˈlɛs/, thickly /ˈθɪkli/, wherewithal /ˈwɛɚ.wɪ.ðɔl/
- أصوات “sh” و“zh”: punishment /ˈpʌnɪʃmənt/, casualty /ˈkæʒu.əlti/, capture /ˈkæp.(t)ʃɚ/, shortage /ˈʃɔː(ɹ)tɪd͡ʒ/, negotiate /nəˈɡəʊ.ʃi.eɪt/
- الكلمات الطويلة — انتبه لموضع النبر: casualty /ˈkæʒu.əlti/, infrastructure /ˈɪnfɹəˌstɹʌkt͡ʃə/, artillery /ɑɹˈtɪləɹi/, virtually /ˈvɚ.t͡ʃə.wə.li/, operator /ˈɑpəˌɹeɪtɚ/
أصوات يجدها متحدثو العربية صعبة:
- /p/ — ليس /b/: انطقه مع نفخة هواء: punishment /ˈpʌnɪʃmənt/, capture /ˈkæp.(t)ʃɚ/, employ /ɪmˈplɔɪ/, operator /ˈɑpəˌɹeɪtɚ/, pole /pəʊl/
- /v/ — ليس /f/: مع اهتزاز الأوتار الصوتية: inventory /ˈɪn.vən.tɹi/, virtually /ˈvɚ.t͡ʃə.wə.li/, civilian /sɪˈvɪl.jən/, viewer /ˈvju.ɚ/, savior /ˈseɪvjɚ/
- تتابع الصوامت — لا تضف حركة بينها: drone /dɹoʊn/, battlefield /ˈbætəlˌfiːld/, punishment /ˈpʌnɪʃmənt/, cruise /kɹuz/, inventory /ˈɪn.vən.tɹi/
كيف تتدرب بهذا الفيديو
- استمع إلى الفيديو كاملًا مرة واحدة دون أن تتكلم، ودوّن الكلمات التي لا تعرفها.
- ردّد جملة جملة بالسرعة العادية، وكرّر كل جملة حتى يتطابق إيقاعك مع المتحدث.
- سجّل صوتك وقارنه بالأصل، مع الانتباه إلى كلمات مثل drone, missile, battlefield.
ما هي تقنية التظليل الصوتي؟
التظليل الصوتي (Shadowing) تقنية تعلم لغة مدعومة علمياً، طُورت أصلاً لتدريب المترجمين الفوريين المحترفين. الطريقة بسيطة لكنها قوية: تستمع لصوت إنجليزي أصلي وتكرره فوراً بصوت عالٍ — كظل يتبع المتحدث بتأخير 1-2 ثانية. تُظهر الأبحاث تحسناً كبيراً في دقة النطق والتنغيم والإيقاع وربط الأصوات والاستماع والطلاقة.