シャドーイング練習: Prof Robert Pape: THE FIRE SEASON BEGINS - 動画で英語スピーキングを学ぶ

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This is happening, and we're going to talk about it.

Good morning.

I am Professor Robert Pape.

Your world changes today, and that's literally true, because today is Election Day.

That's the day that the voting for the midterm elections stops and fire season begins.

Today is the day we're going to see the beginning of a wildfire season.

We are going to see three potential escalations, and they could all converge.

That's escalation of violent populism in the United States.

That's escalation in the Iran war.

And that's escalation in Putin's war in Europe.

Now, all three of these feed on each other,

and today is the key pivotal day where the escalation clock begins on all three.

Now, what is violent populism?

I like to use an analogy.

I like to explain that violent populism is like a wildfire, where there are mass combustible material.

Think of this as the mass dry wood.

That's predictable.

It's measurable.

But that mass of combustible material doesn't set itself off.

It needs a spark.

And those sparks are unpredictable.

In a wildfire, they can come from a cigar butt.

They can come from a down power line.

And how we know we're in wildfire season is because we can measure the size of the dry combustible material.

What we can't do is predict the sparks.

Will there be that lightning strike.

However, once that strike and spark occurs, that is a focal point moment,

and the fire spreads from there.

Now, in the United States today, our recent polls at the Chicago Project on Security and Threats show,

we have a tremendous amount of fuel.

There are over 60 million

Americans on the left and over 40 million

Americans on the right who support political violence for their side.

Now, the grand total of all of this together is 31 percent of all American adults.

That's about 80 million American adults support political violence.

And why is the number just a little smaller than adding up 60 and 40?

It's because independents actually support violence against both sides.

And this is very important because the size of this fuel has doubled in the last two years.

Now, we've seen violent populism recently in Europe.

Over the last few weeks, we've seen violent populism rage.

We saw a spark turn into a focal point,

turn into a fire that has been spreading in France and in other European countries for weeks.

And what was the spark in this case?

In this case, there was a spark on October 5th, right in the middle of peaceful protests in Lens,

France, when a 15 -year -old lost his hand to a police stun grenade.

His classmates were filming at the time, and that video went viral.

He lost a hand.

A continent raised a fist.

Now, what is America's spark?

As I said, the sparks are unpredictable.

But we know that just one video, as we saw with the George Floyd protests, as we just saw in Lens France,

one video can be a tremendous spark with all that combustible material.

And it could occur at any point from today all the way through January 3rd.

And you'll say, well, wait, I thought the election is over today.

The voting ends today, but the counting begins tonight

and the transfer of power goes on over the next two months

because you see the Congress is not seated until the first week in January.

And that's the pivotal moment that matters for violent populism,

which is why we are in effectively wildfire season from this day on for the next several months.

Now, who's going to win tonight?

And how can you trust America's polls?

Well, if you look at the most recent polls, you will see the Democrats have what appears to be an insurmountable advantage.

The generic ballot it's called has

Democrats winning by nine points.

However, we don't vote for generic

Democrats in this country.

We vote for actual people and in real races.

And one of the things we know over the last 10 years since Donald Trump began his political career is

that there is a phenomenon called the shy Trump voter.

Well, I got to know something about shy

Trump voters because, you see, in my book, which has 20 national surveys of Americans,

I wanted to know more about this shy Trump voter.

So for the book, Our Own Worst Enemies, I did something unusual.

I asked the polling agency not just to tell me about their methodology, but I wanted to literally meet, and we did this over Zoom,

the canvassers that are called.

These are the people who go to the hard -to -reach areas, the rural areas.

They go door -to -door to try to fill in for phenomenon like a shy Trump voter.

And I got to meet them.

I got to meet them from Georgia and also from Tennessee.

And in that 90 minute session, I was able to ask them,

what's it like when you go door to door in MAGA country in these rural areas?

And they had a clear answer.

Shotguns, dogs being sicked on them, being run off the property.

I think it really startled not only me,

but a lot of the other people at the polling agency who didn't quite really understand that this term shy

Trump voter might be a little too gentle.

What's really happening as they explained it is, although they were not a party,

they didn't identify themselves with a party in that part of the, in that part of the country.

And in these rural areas, it was just assumed that these pollsters are agents of the democratic party.

And that was something they didn't want to have anything to do with.

So that told me that we need to adjust our counts.

And so what do I do myself?

This is just me, Professor Robert Pape.

What do I do?

I take the very best counts that exist, and I try to subtract two points from any Democratic League.

I did this in the run -up to the 2024 election turned out to be pretty accurate.

And that's what I'd like to just share with you right now.

So what I did is I took what I think is really the best count, Harry Enten's count from CNN.

He's really quite a straight shooter.

100

If you follow his, he is sometimes showing

101

Republicans ahead, Democrats ahead, quite a straight shooter.

102

However, what I'm doing here is I'm showing that it's not just an issue of what's the margin of error.

103

See, many people don't know, Harry certainly knows this, but many people don't know,

104

that in any poll, there is a margin of error of two to three percentage points, which means that in any poll,

105

unless the candidate is four points ahead, it's a tie.

106

So in this case, I went further.

107

I went further and I said, let's subtract another two points from any Democratic lead.

108

And what does that lead to?

109

That leads to a count of about 230 seats for Democrats tonight.

110

Now, you only need 218 to control the House.

111

But where it really matters is with the Senate.

112

You see, instead of the polls showing a lead, 52, 53 seats for the Democrats in the Senate,

113

this approach shows essentially a coin flip.

114

And it's important to know that in the U .S.

115

Senate, a 50 -50 tie, it goes to the vice president to break the tie.

116

In this case, that would mean the Republican vice president, J .D.

117

Vance.

118

This would produce quite a tense result, given the tinderbox of a country that we are in.

119

Now, what should you watch tonight?

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I'm going to be watching this, too.

121

First thing is Georgia.

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Polls close in Georgia, 7 p .m.

123

Then we have a string of very important polls closing, North Carolina, Ohio.

124

By 8 o 'clock, Maine, Michigan, Texas, those two volatile Senate contests.

125

By 9 p .m., we have Iowa, Minnesota, and Nebraska closing.

126

Somewhere around 8 to 9 p .m., we're going to understand the early trends.

127

And those early trends, they may not be resolved for hours, maybe not even for days, who controls each

128

House of Congress.

129

But those early trends, they're going to matter because,

130

you see, all the key players are all going to be basing their decisions not just on watching those early trends,

131

but they'll start acting on those early trends.

132

This is a critical thing to observe as well.

133

Now, where might there be a spark?

134

Even though it's unpredictable, can we say something about where it might occur?

135

Keep your eye on Georgia.

136

Right now, there are federal monitors inside of Fulton County.

137

That's the county around Atlanta.

138

This has been a very controversial move by the Trump administration to put those federal monitors there.

139

President Trump has gone further than put the monitors there.

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He's framed Fulton County as that disaster, he calls it.

141

And what could be a spark?

142

There could be a clash at any counting center, any voting center caught on video between

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Trump's agents and Democratic protesters.

144

And President Trump has already told us what he plans to do if such a spark occurs.

145

He says he's fully expecting, quote, a call to send in the National Guard.

146

That's what he's already anticipated.

147

Now, while America votes, we have two other potential fires underway.

148

One is escalation in the Iran war.

149

Just recently at rallies yesterday, President Trump said, we can do it in 10 minutes,

150

referring to taking out this target called Pickaxe Mountain,

151

which is a nuclear facility that's under hundreds of feet of granite in Iran, where our biggest conventional bombs just can't touch them.

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And what has just happened today?

153

Reports are that Netanyahu, the prime minister of Israel, is pressuring Trump right now, just in the last several,

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in the last 24 hours, to use a nuclear weapon on Pickaxe Mountain.

155

And the reports further say that that pressure is to do it before November 7th, just in the next few days.

156

Now, at the same time, we have a fire in Europe.

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Putin has laid out a plan to turn off the electricity,

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turn off the electricity in major cities in Ukraine right in the dead of winter.

159

This is more than turning off the lights.

160

This is essentially a plan to freeze Kiev.

161

Now, these sparks, these fires,

162

these fires are occurring simultaneously with the U .S midterms,

163

and there will undoubtedly be interaction effects.

164

Now, what should you watch over the next 24 hours?

165

Tonight, watch the rural turnout, especially in Georgia, North Carolina, and Texas.

166

And we'll start to see right away

167

when those rural counties start to report in just where those surveys were with the shy

168

or you might even call them hostile Trump voters.

169

tonight, keep an eye on any armed federal agents at polling or counting sites, especially if they're caught on video.

170

And then by tomorrow, we'll start to pay attention to who's refusing to accept any of these results and how loudly.

171

We'll also be paying attention to signals about potential strikes on Iran from our carriers, our B2s.

172

And also, we'll be keeping an eye on Poland, because Poland is undergoing its own crisis,

173

which fits into the wider escalation in Europe.

174

Now, this is all complicated.

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That's why what we're going to do is come back tomorrow morning with how your world changes tomorrow.

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I look forward to talking to you again early tomorrow,

177

the day after the midterm election vote.

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このレッスンの語彙とスピーキングのポイント

このスピーキングレッスンは、動画「Prof Robert Pape: THE FIRE SEASON BEGINS」を教材にしています。繰り返し出てくる語は次のとおりです：spark, Trump, poll。この動画には、シャドーイング用の文が177文、単語が1927語あります。音声の長さは15:01です。話す速さは1分あたり約128語で安定しており、シャドーイングしやすいペースです。単語の83%は英語の頻出3,000語に含まれます。残りは練習の前に確認しておきましょう。

この動画の重要語彙

動画に出てくる覚えておきたい単語15語を、発音と意味つきで紹介します。

単語	発音	意味
spark 名詞	/ˈspɑɹk/	火花, 火の粉
violent 形容詞	/ˈvaɪ.ə.lənt/	激しい
voter 名詞	/ˈvoʊtɚ/	投票者, 選挙人
occur 動詞	/əˈkɜː/	起こる, 起る
monitor 名詞	/ˈmɑ.nɪ.tɚ/	モニター
unpredictable 形容詞		予測できない, 先が見えない
protest 名詞	/ˈpɹoʊ.tɛst/	抗議, プロテスト
clock 名詞	/klɑk/	走行距離計
margin 名詞	/ˈmɑɹ.d͡ʒɪn/	余白
phenomenon 名詞	/fəˈnɒm.ɪ.nən/	現象
tremendous 形容詞	/tɹɪˈmɛndəs/	莫大
shooter 名詞	/ˈʃuːtəː/	射手
percentage 名詞	/pə(ɹ)ˈsɛntɪd͡ʒ/	百分率, 百分比
complicated 形容詞	/ˈkɑm.plɪˌkeɪ.tɪd/	複雑な
refer 動詞	/ɹɪˈfɜː/	問い合わせる

動画に出てくる句動詞

単語	意味
turn off 動詞	消す, 切る
come back 動詞	戻る, 帰る
look forward to 動詞	楽しみにする
take out 動詞	取り出す
watch over 動詞	見守る

繰り返し練習したい文

動画に出てくる短く完結した文です。日常会話でそのまま使えます。

What we can't do is predict the sparks.
What do I do?
I'm going to be watching this, too.

この動画の文法

話し手がよく使っている文型を、動画の実際の表現とともに紹介します。

文型	動画での表現
現在完了形 have/has + 過去分詞 — 過去の出来事が今も関係している	has doubled · we've seen · has been
受動態 be + 過去分詞 — 誰がするかより、何が起きるかに焦点を当てる	is not seated · are called · being sicked
関係詞節 who / which + 節 — 人や物について情報を加える	book, which has · people who go · points, which means

注意したい発音

話し手はwe're, we'll, didn'tなど、短縮形や弱形を28回使っています。聞こえたとおりの短い形で発音しましょう。

「sh」と「zh」の音: essentially /ɪˈsɛnʃəli/, shooter /ˈʃuːtəː/, unusual /ʌnˈjuːʒ(u)əl/, interaction /ˌɪn.təˈɹæk.ʃən/, conventional /kənˈvɛnʃənl̩/
長い単語（アクセントの位置に注意）: electricity /ɪˌlɛkˈtɹɪsɪti/, essentially /ɪˈsɛnʃəli/, phenomenon /fəˈnɒm.ɪ.nən/, complicated /ˈkɑm.plɪˌkeɪ.tɪd/, unusual /ʌnˈjuːʒ(u)əl/

日本語話者が苦手な音：

/r/ と /l/ の区別 — /l/ は舌先を歯茎につけ、/r/ はどこにもつけない: electricity /ɪˌlɛkˈtɹɪsɪti/, rally /ˈɹæli/, controversial /ˌkɑn.tɹəˈvɝ.ʃəl/, resolve /ɹɪˈzɑlv/, viral /ˈvaɪɹəl/
/v/ — /b/ にならないように、上の歯を下唇に当てる: violent /ˈvaɪ.ə.lənt/, voter /ˈvoʊtɚ/, conventional /kənˈvɛnʃənl̩/, controversial /ˌkɑn.tɹəˈvɝ.ʃəl/, resolve /ɹɪˈzɑlv/
/f/ — 「フ」ではなく、上の歯と下唇で出す: phenomenon /fəˈnɒm.ɪ.nən/, focal /ˈfoʊ.kl̩/, refer /ɹɪˈfɜː/, refuse /ɹɪˈfjuːz/, flip /flɪp/

この動画での練習方法

まず声を出さずに動画を最後まで聞き、知らない単語をメモします。
通常の速度で一文ずつシャドーイングし、話し手のリズムに合うまで繰り返します。
自分の声を録音して元の音声と比べます。spark, violent, voterなどの単語に特に注意しましょう。

シャドーイングとは？英語上達に効果的な理由

シャドーイング（Shadowing）は、もともとプロの通訳者養成プログラムで開発された言語学習法で、多言語習得者として知られるDr. Alexander Arguelles によって広く普及されました。方法はシンプルですが非常に効果的：ネイティブスピーカーの英語を聞きながら、1〜2秒の遅延で声に出してすぐに繰り返す——まるで「影（shadow）」のように話者を追いかけます。文法ドリルや受動的なリスニングと異なり、シャドーイングは脳と口の筋肉が同時にリアルタイムで英語を処理・再現することを強制します。研究により、発音精度、抑揚、リズム、連音、リスニング力、そして会話の流暢さが大幅に向上することが確認されています。IELTSスピーキング対策や自然な英語コミュニケーションを目指す方に特におすすめです。

シャドーイングのやり方: ステップ別の完全ガイドを読む →

シャドーイング練習: Prof Robert Pape: THE FIRE SEASON BEGINS - 動画で英語スピーキングを学ぶ

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