Shadowing Practice: Prof Robert Pape: THE FIRE SEASON BEGINS - Learn English Speaking with Video

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This is happening, and we're going to talk about it.

Good morning.

I am Professor Robert Pape.

Your world changes today, and that's literally true, because today is Election Day.

That's the day that the voting for the midterm elections stops and fire season begins.

Today is the day we're going to see the beginning of a wildfire season.

We are going to see three potential escalations, and they could all converge.

That's escalation of violent populism in the United States.

That's escalation in the Iran war.

And that's escalation in Putin's war in Europe.

Now, all three of these feed on each other,

and today is the key pivotal day where the escalation clock begins on all three.

Now, what is violent populism?

I like to use an analogy.

I like to explain that violent populism is like a wildfire, where there are mass combustible material.

Think of this as the mass dry wood.

That's predictable.

It's measurable.

But that mass of combustible material doesn't set itself off.

It needs a spark.

And those sparks are unpredictable.

In a wildfire, they can come from a cigar butt.

They can come from a down power line.

And how we know we're in wildfire season is because we can measure the size of the dry combustible material.

What we can't do is predict the sparks.

Will there be that lightning strike.

However, once that strike and spark occurs, that is a focal point moment,

and the fire spreads from there.

Now, in the United States today, our recent polls at the Chicago Project on Security and Threats show,

we have a tremendous amount of fuel.

There are over 60 million

Americans on the left and over 40 million

Americans on the right who support political violence for their side.

Now, the grand total of all of this together is 31 percent of all American adults.

That's about 80 million American adults support political violence.

And why is the number just a little smaller than adding up 60 and 40?

It's because independents actually support violence against both sides.

And this is very important because the size of this fuel has doubled in the last two years.

Now, we've seen violent populism recently in Europe.

Over the last few weeks, we've seen violent populism rage.

We saw a spark turn into a focal point,

turn into a fire that has been spreading in France and in other European countries for weeks.

And what was the spark in this case?

In this case, there was a spark on October 5th, right in the middle of peaceful protests in Lens,

France, when a 15 -year -old lost his hand to a police stun grenade.

His classmates were filming at the time, and that video went viral.

He lost a hand.

A continent raised a fist.

Now, what is America's spark?

As I said, the sparks are unpredictable.

But we know that just one video, as we saw with the George Floyd protests, as we just saw in Lens France,

one video can be a tremendous spark with all that combustible material.

And it could occur at any point from today all the way through January 3rd.

And you'll say, well, wait, I thought the election is over today.

The voting ends today, but the counting begins tonight

and the transfer of power goes on over the next two months

because you see the Congress is not seated until the first week in January.

And that's the pivotal moment that matters for violent populism,

which is why we are in effectively wildfire season from this day on for the next several months.

Now, who's going to win tonight?

And how can you trust America's polls?

Well, if you look at the most recent polls, you will see the Democrats have what appears to be an insurmountable advantage.

The generic ballot it's called has

Democrats winning by nine points.

However, we don't vote for generic

Democrats in this country.

We vote for actual people and in real races.

And one of the things we know over the last 10 years since Donald Trump began his political career is

that there is a phenomenon called the shy Trump voter.

Well, I got to know something about shy

Trump voters because, you see, in my book, which has 20 national surveys of Americans,

I wanted to know more about this shy Trump voter.

So for the book, Our Own Worst Enemies, I did something unusual.

I asked the polling agency not just to tell me about their methodology, but I wanted to literally meet, and we did this over Zoom,

the canvassers that are called.

These are the people who go to the hard -to -reach areas, the rural areas.

They go door -to -door to try to fill in for phenomenon like a shy Trump voter.

And I got to meet them.

I got to meet them from Georgia and also from Tennessee.

And in that 90 minute session, I was able to ask them,

what's it like when you go door to door in MAGA country in these rural areas?

And they had a clear answer.

Shotguns, dogs being sicked on them, being run off the property.

I think it really startled not only me,

but a lot of the other people at the polling agency who didn't quite really understand that this term shy

Trump voter might be a little too gentle.

What's really happening as they explained it is, although they were not a party,

they didn't identify themselves with a party in that part of the, in that part of the country.

And in these rural areas, it was just assumed that these pollsters are agents of the democratic party.

And that was something they didn't want to have anything to do with.

So that told me that we need to adjust our counts.

And so what do I do myself?

This is just me, Professor Robert Pape.

What do I do?

I take the very best counts that exist, and I try to subtract two points from any Democratic League.

I did this in the run -up to the 2024 election turned out to be pretty accurate.

And that's what I'd like to just share with you right now.

So what I did is I took what I think is really the best count, Harry Enten's count from CNN.

He's really quite a straight shooter.

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If you follow his, he is sometimes showing

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Republicans ahead, Democrats ahead, quite a straight shooter.

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However, what I'm doing here is I'm showing that it's not just an issue of what's the margin of error.

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See, many people don't know, Harry certainly knows this, but many people don't know,

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that in any poll, there is a margin of error of two to three percentage points, which means that in any poll,

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unless the candidate is four points ahead, it's a tie.

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So in this case, I went further.

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I went further and I said, let's subtract another two points from any Democratic lead.

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And what does that lead to?

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That leads to a count of about 230 seats for Democrats tonight.

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Now, you only need 218 to control the House.

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But where it really matters is with the Senate.

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You see, instead of the polls showing a lead, 52, 53 seats for the Democrats in the Senate,

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this approach shows essentially a coin flip.

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And it's important to know that in the U .S.

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Senate, a 50 -50 tie, it goes to the vice president to break the tie.

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In this case, that would mean the Republican vice president, J .D.

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Vance.

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This would produce quite a tense result, given the tinderbox of a country that we are in.

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Now, what should you watch tonight?

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I'm going to be watching this, too.

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First thing is Georgia.

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Polls close in Georgia, 7 p .m.

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Then we have a string of very important polls closing, North Carolina, Ohio.

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By 8 o 'clock, Maine, Michigan, Texas, those two volatile Senate contests.

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By 9 p .m., we have Iowa, Minnesota, and Nebraska closing.

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Somewhere around 8 to 9 p .m., we're going to understand the early trends.

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And those early trends, they may not be resolved for hours, maybe not even for days, who controls each

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House of Congress.

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But those early trends, they're going to matter because,

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you see, all the key players are all going to be basing their decisions not just on watching those early trends,

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but they'll start acting on those early trends.

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This is a critical thing to observe as well.

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Now, where might there be a spark?

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Even though it's unpredictable, can we say something about where it might occur?

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Keep your eye on Georgia.

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Right now, there are federal monitors inside of Fulton County.

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That's the county around Atlanta.

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This has been a very controversial move by the Trump administration to put those federal monitors there.

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President Trump has gone further than put the monitors there.

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He's framed Fulton County as that disaster, he calls it.

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And what could be a spark?

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There could be a clash at any counting center, any voting center caught on video between

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Trump's agents and Democratic protesters.

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And President Trump has already told us what he plans to do if such a spark occurs.

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He says he's fully expecting, quote, a call to send in the National Guard.

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That's what he's already anticipated.

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Now, while America votes, we have two other potential fires underway.

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One is escalation in the Iran war.

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Just recently at rallies yesterday, President Trump said, we can do it in 10 minutes,

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referring to taking out this target called Pickaxe Mountain,

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which is a nuclear facility that's under hundreds of feet of granite in Iran, where our biggest conventional bombs just can't touch them.

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And what has just happened today?

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Reports are that Netanyahu, the prime minister of Israel, is pressuring Trump right now, just in the last several,

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in the last 24 hours, to use a nuclear weapon on Pickaxe Mountain.

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And the reports further say that that pressure is to do it before November 7th, just in the next few days.

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Now, at the same time, we have a fire in Europe.

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Putin has laid out a plan to turn off the electricity,

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turn off the electricity in major cities in Ukraine right in the dead of winter.

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This is more than turning off the lights.

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This is essentially a plan to freeze Kiev.

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Now, these sparks, these fires,

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these fires are occurring simultaneously with the U .S midterms,

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and there will undoubtedly be interaction effects.

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Now, what should you watch over the next 24 hours?

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Tonight, watch the rural turnout, especially in Georgia, North Carolina, and Texas.

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And we'll start to see right away

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when those rural counties start to report in just where those surveys were with the shy

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or you might even call them hostile Trump voters.

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tonight, keep an eye on any armed federal agents at polling or counting sites, especially if they're caught on video.

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And then by tomorrow, we'll start to pay attention to who's refusing to accept any of these results and how loudly.

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We'll also be paying attention to signals about potential strikes on Iran from our carriers, our B2s.

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And also, we'll be keeping an eye on Poland, because Poland is undergoing its own crisis,

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which fits into the wider escalation in Europe.

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Now, this is all complicated.

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That's why what we're going to do is come back tomorrow morning with how your world changes tomorrow.

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I look forward to talking to you again early tomorrow,

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the day after the midterm election vote.

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אוצר מילים והערות הגייה לשיעור הזה

שיעור הדיבור הזה מבוסס על הסרטון “Prof Robert Pape: THE FIRE SEASON BEGINS”. המילים שחוזרות הכי הרבה: spark, Trump, poll. בסרטון הזה יש 177 משפטים ו-1927 מילים לתרגול Shadowing. הדיבור נמשך 15:01. הדובר שומר על קצב יציב של כ-128 מילים בדקה, קצב נוח לתרגול Shadowing. 83% מהמילים נמצאות בין 3,000 המילים הנפוצות ביותר באנגלית; כדאי ללמוד את השאר לפני שמתחילים.

אוצר מילים מרכזי בסרטון הזה

15 מילים מהסרטון שכדאי ללמוד, עם ההגייה והמשמעות שלהן:

מילה	הגייה	משמעות
spark שם עצם	/ˈspɑɹk/	נִיצוֹץ, גֵּץ
violent שם תואר	/ˈvaɪ.ə.lənt/	אלים
voter שם עצם	/ˈvoʊtɚ/	מַצְבִּיעַ, בּוֹחֵר
monitor שם עצם	/ˈmɑ.nɪ.tɚ/	צָג
unpredictable שם תואר		בלתי צפוי
protest שם עצם	/ˈpɹoʊ.tɛst/	מְחָאָה
phenomenon שם עצם	/fəˈnɒm.ɪ.nən/	תופעה
tremendous שם תואר	/tɹɪˈmɛndəs/	עָצוּם
complicated שם תואר	/ˈkɑm.plɪˌkeɪ.tɪd/	מסובך, מְסֻבָּךְ
string שם עצם	/stɹɪŋ/	מֵיתָר
disaster שם עצם	/dɪˈzɑːs.təː/	אָסוֹן
rally שם עצם	/ˈɹæli/	עֲצֶרֶת
interaction שם עצם	/ˌɪn.təˈɹæk.ʃən/	יַחֲסֵי גּוֹמְלִין, אִינְטֶרְאַקְצְיָה
butt שם עצם	/bʌt/	עכוז, תחת
controversial שם תואר	/ˌkɑn.tɹəˈvɝ.ʃəl/	שָׁנוּי בְּמַחֲלֹקֶת

Phrasal verbs שתשמעו

מילה	משמעות
turn off פועל	כיבה, כִּבָּה
come back פועל	שָׁב

משפטים שכדאי לחזור עליהם

משפטים קצרים ושלמים מהסרטון שאפשר להשתמש בהם בשיחה יומיומית:

What we can't do is predict the sparks.
What do I do?
I'm going to be watching this, too.

דקדוק בסרטון הזה

המבנים שהדובר משתמש בהם הכי הרבה, עם המילים המדויקות מהסרטון:

מבנה	בסרטון
הווה מושלם (Present perfect) have/has + past participle — פעולה שקרתה בעבר ועדיין יש לה חשיבות או השפעה עכשיו	has doubled · we've seen · has been
סביל (Passive voice) be + past participle — הדגש הוא על מה שקורה, לא על מי שעושה את הפעולה	is not seated · are called · being sicked
משפטי זיקה (Relative clauses) who / which + clause — מידע נוסף על אדם או דבר	book, which has · people who go · points, which means

הגייה ששווה לשים לב אליה

הדובר משתמש ב-28 קיצורים וצורות מקוצרות, כמו we're, we'll, didn't. אמרו אותם בצורה הקצרה, כפי שאתם שומעים אותם.

הצלילים של “sh” ו-“zh”: essentially /ɪˈsɛnʃəli/, shooter /ˈʃuːtəː/, unusual /ʌnˈjuːʒ(u)əl/, interaction /ˌɪn.təˈɹæk.ʃən/, conventional /kənˈvɛnʃənl̩/
מילים ארוכות — שימו לב להטעמה: electricity /ɪˌlɛkˈtɹɪsɪti/, essentially /ɪˈsɛnʃəli/, phenomenon /fəˈnɒm.ɪ.nən/, complicated /ˈkɑm.plɪˌkeɪ.tɪd/, unusual /ʌnˈjuːʒ(u)əl/

צלילים שדוברי עברית מתקשים בהם:

/w/ — שפתיים מעוגלות, לא /v/: underway /ʌndəɹˈweɪ/, wildfire /ˈwaɪldˌfaɪər/
/æ/ — פתוח יותר מה-“אֶ” העברית, לא כמו “a” ב-“cup”: rally /ˈɹæli/, carrier /ˈkæɹi.ɚ/, interaction /ˌɪn.təˈɹæk.ʃən/, ballot /ˈbælət/, clash /ˈklæʃ/
/r/ — הלשון לא נוגעת בשום מקום, לא ה-“ר” הגרונית: spark /ˈspɑɹk/, protest /ˈpɹoʊ.tɛst/, electricity /ɪˌlɛkˈtɹɪsɪti/, margin /ˈmɑɹ.d͡ʒɪn/, generic /dʒɪˈnɛɹ.ɪk/

איך לתרגל עם הסרטון הזה

הקשיבו לכל הסרטון פעם אחת בלי לדבר, ורשמו את המילים שאתם לא מכירים.
תרגלו Shadowing משפט אחר משפט במהירות רגילה, וחזרו על כל משפט עד שהקצב שלכם תואם את הדובר.
הקליטו את עצמכם והשוו למקור, תוך תשומת לב למילים כמו spark, violent, voter.

מהי טכניקת השאדואינג?

שאדואינג היא טכניקת למידת שפה מבוססת מדע שפותחה במקור להכשרת מתורגמנים מקצועיים ופופולרית על ידי הפוליגלוט ד"ר אלכסנדר ארגואלס. השיטה פשוטה אך עוצמתית: אתה מקשיב לאודיו באנגלית ילידית וחוזר עליו בקול רם מיד — כמו צל העוקב אחרי הדובר עם עיכוב של 1–2 שניות בלבד. בניגוד להאזנה פסיבית או תרגילי דקדוק, שאדואינג מכריח את המוח והשרירים בפה לעבד ולשחזר דפוסי דיבור אמיתיים בו זמנית. מחקרים מראים שזה משפר משמעותית את דיוק ההגייה, האינטונציה, הקצב, הדיבור המחובר, הבנת השמיעה ושטף הדיבור — מה שהופך אותו לאחת השיטות היעילות ביותר להכנה לIELTS Speaking ולתקשורת באנגלית בעולם האמיתי.

טכניקת Shadowing: קרא את המדריך המלא שלב אחר שלב →

Shadowing Practice: Prof Robert Pape: THE FIRE SEASON BEGINS - Learn English Speaking with Video

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