Pratica di Shadowing: Prof Robert Pape: THE FIRE SEASON BEGINS - Impara a parlare inglese con i video

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This is happening, and we're going to talk about it.

Good morning.

I am Professor Robert Pape.

Your world changes today, and that's literally true, because today is Election Day.

That's the day that the voting for the midterm elections stops and fire season begins.

Today is the day we're going to see the beginning of a wildfire season.

We are going to see three potential escalations, and they could all converge.

That's escalation of violent populism in the United States.

That's escalation in the Iran war.

And that's escalation in Putin's war in Europe.

Now, all three of these feed on each other,

and today is the key pivotal day where the escalation clock begins on all three.

Now, what is violent populism?

I like to use an analogy.

I like to explain that violent populism is like a wildfire, where there are mass combustible material.

Think of this as the mass dry wood.

That's predictable.

It's measurable.

But that mass of combustible material doesn't set itself off.

It needs a spark.

And those sparks are unpredictable.

In a wildfire, they can come from a cigar butt.

They can come from a down power line.

And how we know we're in wildfire season is because we can measure the size of the dry combustible material.

What we can't do is predict the sparks.

Will there be that lightning strike.

However, once that strike and spark occurs, that is a focal point moment,

and the fire spreads from there.

Now, in the United States today, our recent polls at the Chicago Project on Security and Threats show,

we have a tremendous amount of fuel.

There are over 60 million

Americans on the left and over 40 million

Americans on the right who support political violence for their side.

Now, the grand total of all of this together is 31 percent of all American adults.

That's about 80 million American adults support political violence.

And why is the number just a little smaller than adding up 60 and 40?

It's because independents actually support violence against both sides.

And this is very important because the size of this fuel has doubled in the last two years.

Now, we've seen violent populism recently in Europe.

Over the last few weeks, we've seen violent populism rage.

We saw a spark turn into a focal point,

turn into a fire that has been spreading in France and in other European countries for weeks.

And what was the spark in this case?

In this case, there was a spark on October 5th, right in the middle of peaceful protests in Lens,

France, when a 15 -year -old lost his hand to a police stun grenade.

His classmates were filming at the time, and that video went viral.

He lost a hand.

A continent raised a fist.

Now, what is America's spark?

As I said, the sparks are unpredictable.

But we know that just one video, as we saw with the George Floyd protests, as we just saw in Lens France,

one video can be a tremendous spark with all that combustible material.

And it could occur at any point from today all the way through January 3rd.

And you'll say, well, wait, I thought the election is over today.

The voting ends today, but the counting begins tonight

and the transfer of power goes on over the next two months

because you see the Congress is not seated until the first week in January.

And that's the pivotal moment that matters for violent populism,

which is why we are in effectively wildfire season from this day on for the next several months.

Now, who's going to win tonight?

And how can you trust America's polls?

Well, if you look at the most recent polls, you will see the Democrats have what appears to be an insurmountable advantage.

The generic ballot it's called has

Democrats winning by nine points.

However, we don't vote for generic

Democrats in this country.

We vote for actual people and in real races.

And one of the things we know over the last 10 years since Donald Trump began his political career is

that there is a phenomenon called the shy Trump voter.

Well, I got to know something about shy

Trump voters because, you see, in my book, which has 20 national surveys of Americans,

I wanted to know more about this shy Trump voter.

So for the book, Our Own Worst Enemies, I did something unusual.

I asked the polling agency not just to tell me about their methodology, but I wanted to literally meet, and we did this over Zoom,

the canvassers that are called.

These are the people who go to the hard -to -reach areas, the rural areas.

They go door -to -door to try to fill in for phenomenon like a shy Trump voter.

And I got to meet them.

I got to meet them from Georgia and also from Tennessee.

And in that 90 minute session, I was able to ask them,

what's it like when you go door to door in MAGA country in these rural areas?

And they had a clear answer.

Shotguns, dogs being sicked on them, being run off the property.

I think it really startled not only me,

but a lot of the other people at the polling agency who didn't quite really understand that this term shy

Trump voter might be a little too gentle.

What's really happening as they explained it is, although they were not a party,

they didn't identify themselves with a party in that part of the, in that part of the country.

And in these rural areas, it was just assumed that these pollsters are agents of the democratic party.

And that was something they didn't want to have anything to do with.

So that told me that we need to adjust our counts.

And so what do I do myself?

This is just me, Professor Robert Pape.

What do I do?

I take the very best counts that exist, and I try to subtract two points from any Democratic League.

I did this in the run -up to the 2024 election turned out to be pretty accurate.

And that's what I'd like to just share with you right now.

So what I did is I took what I think is really the best count, Harry Enten's count from CNN.

He's really quite a straight shooter.

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If you follow his, he is sometimes showing

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Republicans ahead, Democrats ahead, quite a straight shooter.

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However, what I'm doing here is I'm showing that it's not just an issue of what's the margin of error.

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See, many people don't know, Harry certainly knows this, but many people don't know,

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that in any poll, there is a margin of error of two to three percentage points, which means that in any poll,

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unless the candidate is four points ahead, it's a tie.

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So in this case, I went further.

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I went further and I said, let's subtract another two points from any Democratic lead.

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And what does that lead to?

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That leads to a count of about 230 seats for Democrats tonight.

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Now, you only need 218 to control the House.

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But where it really matters is with the Senate.

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You see, instead of the polls showing a lead, 52, 53 seats for the Democrats in the Senate,

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this approach shows essentially a coin flip.

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And it's important to know that in the U .S.

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Senate, a 50 -50 tie, it goes to the vice president to break the tie.

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In this case, that would mean the Republican vice president, J .D.

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Vance.

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This would produce quite a tense result, given the tinderbox of a country that we are in.

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Now, what should you watch tonight?

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I'm going to be watching this, too.

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First thing is Georgia.

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Polls close in Georgia, 7 p .m.

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Then we have a string of very important polls closing, North Carolina, Ohio.

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By 8 o 'clock, Maine, Michigan, Texas, those two volatile Senate contests.

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By 9 p .m., we have Iowa, Minnesota, and Nebraska closing.

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Somewhere around 8 to 9 p .m., we're going to understand the early trends.

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And those early trends, they may not be resolved for hours, maybe not even for days, who controls each

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House of Congress.

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But those early trends, they're going to matter because,

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you see, all the key players are all going to be basing their decisions not just on watching those early trends,

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but they'll start acting on those early trends.

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This is a critical thing to observe as well.

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Now, where might there be a spark?

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Even though it's unpredictable, can we say something about where it might occur?

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Keep your eye on Georgia.

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Right now, there are federal monitors inside of Fulton County.

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That's the county around Atlanta.

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This has been a very controversial move by the Trump administration to put those federal monitors there.

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President Trump has gone further than put the monitors there.

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He's framed Fulton County as that disaster, he calls it.

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And what could be a spark?

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There could be a clash at any counting center, any voting center caught on video between

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Trump's agents and Democratic protesters.

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And President Trump has already told us what he plans to do if such a spark occurs.

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He says he's fully expecting, quote, a call to send in the National Guard.

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That's what he's already anticipated.

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Now, while America votes, we have two other potential fires underway.

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One is escalation in the Iran war.

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Just recently at rallies yesterday, President Trump said, we can do it in 10 minutes,

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referring to taking out this target called Pickaxe Mountain,

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which is a nuclear facility that's under hundreds of feet of granite in Iran, where our biggest conventional bombs just can't touch them.

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And what has just happened today?

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Reports are that Netanyahu, the prime minister of Israel, is pressuring Trump right now, just in the last several,

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in the last 24 hours, to use a nuclear weapon on Pickaxe Mountain.

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And the reports further say that that pressure is to do it before November 7th, just in the next few days.

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Now, at the same time, we have a fire in Europe.

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Putin has laid out a plan to turn off the electricity,

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turn off the electricity in major cities in Ukraine right in the dead of winter.

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This is more than turning off the lights.

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This is essentially a plan to freeze Kiev.

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Now, these sparks, these fires,

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these fires are occurring simultaneously with the U .S midterms,

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and there will undoubtedly be interaction effects.

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Now, what should you watch over the next 24 hours?

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Tonight, watch the rural turnout, especially in Georgia, North Carolina, and Texas.

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And we'll start to see right away

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when those rural counties start to report in just where those surveys were with the shy

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or you might even call them hostile Trump voters.

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tonight, keep an eye on any armed federal agents at polling or counting sites, especially if they're caught on video.

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And then by tomorrow, we'll start to pay attention to who's refusing to accept any of these results and how loudly.

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We'll also be paying attention to signals about potential strikes on Iran from our carriers, our B2s.

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And also, we'll be keeping an eye on Poland, because Poland is undergoing its own crisis,

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which fits into the wider escalation in Europe.

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Now, this is all complicated.

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That's why what we're going to do is come back tomorrow morning with how your world changes tomorrow.

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I look forward to talking to you again early tomorrow,

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the day after the midterm election vote.

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Vocabolario e note di pronuncia per questa lezione

Questa lezione di conversazione si basa sul video “Prof Robert Pape: THE FIRE SEASON BEGINS”. Le parole che ritornano più spesso: spark, Trump, poll. Questo video contiene 177 frasi e 1927 parole da ripetere con lo shadowing. Il parlato dura 15:01. Chi parla mantiene un ritmo costante di circa 128 parole al minuto, comodo per lo shadowing. Il 83% delle parole rientra nelle 3.000 più comuni dell’inglese; conviene studiare le altre prima di iniziare.

Vocaboli chiave di questo video

15 parole del video che vale la pena imparare, con pronuncia e significato:

Parola	Pronuncia	Significato
spark sostantivo	/ˈspɑɹk/	scintilla
poll sostantivo	/poʊl/	sondaggio
violent aggettivo	/ˈvaɪ.ə.lənt/	violento
voter sostantivo	/ˈvoʊtɚ/	elettore, elettrice
occur verbo	/əˈkɜː/	verificarsi
monitor sostantivo	/ˈmɑ.nɪ.tɚ/	monitor
unpredictable aggettivo		imprevedibile
protest sostantivo	/ˈpɹoʊ.tɛst/	protesta
clock sostantivo	/klɑk/	contachilometri, tachimetro
essentially avverbio	/ɪˈsɛnʃəli/	in essenza
margin sostantivo	/ˈmɑɹ.d͡ʒɪn/	margine
phenomenon sostantivo	/fəˈnɒm.ɪ.nən/	fenomeno
tremendous aggettivo	/tɹɪˈmɛndəs/	formidabile, tremendo
shooter sostantivo	/ˈʃuːtəː/	tiratore, tiratrice
focal aggettivo	/ˈfoʊ.kl̩/	focale

I phrasal verb che sentirai

Parola	Significato
turn off verbo	spegnere
add up verbo	sommarsi
come back verbo	tornare
look forward to verbo	non vedere l'ora
take out verbo	cavare, cacciare
watch over verbo	vegliare, piantonare

Frasi da ripetere

Frasi brevi e complete del video che puoi riutilizzare nella conversazione di tutti i giorni:

What we can't do is predict the sparks.
What do I do?
I'm going to be watching this, too.

La grammatica di questo video

Le strutture che chi parla usa di più, con le parole esatte del video:

Struttura	Nel video
Present perfect have/has + participio passato — un’azione passata che conta ancora adesso	has doubled · we've seen · has been
Forma passiva be + participio passato — conta ciò che accade, non chi lo fa	is not seated · are called · being sicked
Frasi relative who / which + frase — un’informazione in più su una persona o una cosa	book, which has · people who go · points, which means

Pronuncia a cui fare attenzione

Chi parla usa 28 contrazioni e forme ridotte, come we're, we'll, didn't. Pronunciale nella forma breve, così come le senti.

I suoni “sh” e “zh”: essentially /ɪˈsɛnʃəli/, shooter /ˈʃuːtəː/, unusual /ʌnˈjuːʒ(u)əl/, interaction /ˌɪn.təˈɹæk.ʃən/, conventional /kənˈvɛnʃənl̩/
Parole lunghe — attenzione all’accento: electricity /ɪˌlɛkˈtɹɪsɪti/, essentially /ɪˈsɛnʃəli/, phenomenon /fəˈnɒm.ɪ.nən/, complicated /ˈkɑm.plɪˌkeɪ.tɪd/, unusual /ʌnˈjuːʒ(u)əl/

I suoni difficili per chi parla italiano:

Consonante finale — senza aggiungere una vocale dopo: spark /ˈspɑɹk/, violent /ˈvaɪ.ə.lənt/, protest /ˈpɹoʊ.tɛst/, clock /klɑk/, generic /dʒɪˈnɛɹ.ɪk/
/æ/ — più aperta della “e”: rally /ˈɹæli/, carrier /ˈkæɹi.ɚ/, interaction /ˌɪn.təˈɹæk.ʃən/, ballot /ˈbælət/, clash /ˈklæʃ/
/ŋ/ finale — senza pronunciare la /g/: string /stɹɪŋ/, lightning /ˈlaɪt.nɪŋ/

Come esercitarsi con questo video

Ascolta tutto il video una volta senza parlare e annota le parole che non conosci.
Fai shadowing frase per frase a velocità normale, ripetendo ognuna finché il tuo ritmo coincide con quello di chi parla.
Registrati e confronta con l’originale, facendo attenzione a parole come spark, poll, violent.

Cos'è la tecnica dello Shadowing?

Shadowing è una tecnica di apprendimento delle lingue supportata da studi scientifici, originariamente sviluppata per la formazione dei traduttori professionisti e resa popolare dal poliglotta Dr. Alexander Arguelles. Il metodo è semplice ma potente: ascolti un audio in inglese di madrelingua e lo ripeti immediatamente ad alta voce — come un'ombra che segue il parlante con un ritardo di solo 1–2 secondi. A differenza dell'ascolto passivo o degli esercizi di grammatica, lo shadowing costringe il tuo cervello e i muscoli della bocca a elaborare e riprodurre simultaneamente i modelli di discorso reale. La ricerca dimostra che migliora significativamente la precisione della pronuncia, l'intonazione, il ritmo, il discorso connesso, la comprensione dell'ascolto e la fluidità del parlato — rendendolo uno dei metodi più efficaci per la preparazione alla prova di speaking dell'IELTS e per la comunicazione reale in inglese.

Tecnica dello shadowing: leggi la guida completa passo dopo passo →

Pratica di Shadowing: Prof Robert Pape: THE FIRE SEASON BEGINS - Impara a parlare inglese con i video

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