ฝึกพูดภาษาอังกฤษด้วยเทคนิค Shadowing จากวิดีโอ: Prof Robert Pape: THE FIRE SEASON BEGINS
เลือกโหมดฝึก
แต่ละโหมดจะเปิดห้องฝึกแบบเต็มจอ
177 ประโยค
หากประโยคสั้นหรือยาวเกินไป กดที่ Edit เพื่อปรับแก้
1
This is happening, and we're going to talk about it.
2
Good morning.
3
I am Professor Robert Pape.
4
Your world changes today, and that's literally true, because today is Election Day.
5
That's the day that the voting for the midterm elections stops and fire season begins.
6
Today is the day we're going to see the beginning of a wildfire season.
7
We are going to see three potential escalations, and they could all converge.
8
That's escalation of violent populism in the United States.
9
That's escalation in the Iran war.
10
And that's escalation in Putin's war in Europe.
11
Now, all three of these feed on each other,
12
and today is the key pivotal day where the escalation clock begins on all three.
13
Now, what is violent populism?
14
I like to use an analogy.
15
I like to explain that violent populism is like a wildfire, where there are mass combustible material.
16
Think of this as the mass dry wood.
17
That's predictable.
18
It's measurable.
19
But that mass of combustible material doesn't set itself off.
20
It needs a spark.
21
And those sparks are unpredictable.
22
In a wildfire, they can come from a cigar butt.
23
They can come from a down power line.
24
And how we know we're in wildfire season is because we can measure the size of the dry combustible material.
25
What we can't do is predict the sparks.
26
Will there be that lightning strike.
27
However, once that strike and spark occurs, that is a focal point moment,
28
and the fire spreads from there.
29
Now, in the United States today, our recent polls at the Chicago Project on Security and Threats show,
30
we have a tremendous amount of fuel.
31
There are over 60 million
32
Americans on the left and over 40 million
33
Americans on the right who support political violence for their side.
34
Now, the grand total of all of this together is 31 percent of all American adults.
35
That's about 80 million American adults support political violence.
36
And why is the number just a little smaller than adding up 60 and 40?
37
It's because independents actually support violence against both sides.
38
And this is very important because the size of this fuel has doubled in the last two years.
39
Now, we've seen violent populism recently in Europe.
40
Over the last few weeks, we've seen violent populism rage.
41
We saw a spark turn into a focal point,
42
turn into a fire that has been spreading in France and in other European countries for weeks.
43
And what was the spark in this case?
44
In this case, there was a spark on October 5th, right in the middle of peaceful protests in Lens,
45
France, when a 15 -year -old lost his hand to a police stun grenade.
46
His classmates were filming at the time, and that video went viral.
47
He lost a hand.
48
A continent raised a fist.
49
Now, what is America's spark?
50
As I said, the sparks are unpredictable.
51
But we know that just one video, as we saw with the George Floyd protests, as we just saw in Lens France,
52
one video can be a tremendous spark with all that combustible material.
53
And it could occur at any point from today all the way through January 3rd.
54
And you'll say, well, wait, I thought the election is over today.
55
The voting ends today, but the counting begins tonight
56
and the transfer of power goes on over the next two months
57
because you see the Congress is not seated until the first week in January.
58
And that's the pivotal moment that matters for violent populism,
59
which is why we are in effectively wildfire season from this day on for the next several months.
60
Now, who's going to win tonight?
61
And how can you trust America's polls?
62
Well, if you look at the most recent polls, you will see the Democrats have what appears to be an insurmountable advantage.
63
The generic ballot it's called has
64
Democrats winning by nine points.
65
However, we don't vote for generic
66
Democrats in this country.
67
We vote for actual people and in real races.
68
And one of the things we know over the last 10 years since Donald Trump began his political career is
69
that there is a phenomenon called the shy Trump voter.
70
Well, I got to know something about shy
71
Trump voters because, you see, in my book, which has 20 national surveys of Americans,
72
I wanted to know more about this shy Trump voter.
73
So for the book, Our Own Worst Enemies, I did something unusual.
74
I asked the polling agency not just to tell me about their methodology, but I wanted to literally meet, and we did this over Zoom,
75
the canvassers that are called.
76
These are the people who go to the hard -to -reach areas, the rural areas.
77
They go door -to -door to try to fill in for phenomenon like a shy Trump voter.
78
And I got to meet them.
79
I got to meet them from Georgia and also from Tennessee.
80
And in that 90 minute session, I was able to ask them,
81
what's it like when you go door to door in MAGA country in these rural areas?
82
And they had a clear answer.
83
Shotguns, dogs being sicked on them, being run off the property.
84
I think it really startled not only me,
85
but a lot of the other people at the polling agency who didn't quite really understand that this term shy
86
Trump voter might be a little too gentle.
87
What's really happening as they explained it is, although they were not a party,
88
they didn't identify themselves with a party in that part of the, in that part of the country.
89
And in these rural areas, it was just assumed that these pollsters are agents of the democratic party.
90
And that was something they didn't want to have anything to do with.
91
So that told me that we need to adjust our counts.
92
And so what do I do myself?
93
This is just me, Professor Robert Pape.
94
What do I do?
95
I take the very best counts that exist, and I try to subtract two points from any Democratic League.
96
I did this in the run -up to the 2024 election turned out to be pretty accurate.
97
And that's what I'd like to just share with you right now.
98
So what I did is I took what I think is really the best count, Harry Enten's count from CNN.
99
He's really quite a straight shooter.
100
If you follow his, he is sometimes showing
101
Republicans ahead, Democrats ahead, quite a straight shooter.
102
However, what I'm doing here is I'm showing that it's not just an issue of what's the margin of error.
103
See, many people don't know, Harry certainly knows this, but many people don't know,
104
that in any poll, there is a margin of error of two to three percentage points, which means that in any poll,
105
unless the candidate is four points ahead, it's a tie.
106
So in this case, I went further.
107
I went further and I said, let's subtract another two points from any Democratic lead.
108
And what does that lead to?
109
That leads to a count of about 230 seats for Democrats tonight.
110
Now, you only need 218 to control the House.
111
But where it really matters is with the Senate.
112
You see, instead of the polls showing a lead, 52, 53 seats for the Democrats in the Senate,
113
this approach shows essentially a coin flip.
114
And it's important to know that in the U .S.
115
Senate, a 50 -50 tie, it goes to the vice president to break the tie.
116
In this case, that would mean the Republican vice president, J .D.
117
Vance.
118
This would produce quite a tense result, given the tinderbox of a country that we are in.
119
Now, what should you watch tonight?
120
I'm going to be watching this, too.
121
First thing is Georgia.
122
Polls close in Georgia, 7 p .m.
123
Then we have a string of very important polls closing, North Carolina, Ohio.
124
By 8 o 'clock, Maine, Michigan, Texas, those two volatile Senate contests.
125
By 9 p .m., we have Iowa, Minnesota, and Nebraska closing.
126
Somewhere around 8 to 9 p .m., we're going to understand the early trends.
127
And those early trends, they may not be resolved for hours, maybe not even for days, who controls each
128
House of Congress.
129
But those early trends, they're going to matter because,
130
you see, all the key players are all going to be basing their decisions not just on watching those early trends,
131
but they'll start acting on those early trends.
132
This is a critical thing to observe as well.
133
Now, where might there be a spark?
134
Even though it's unpredictable, can we say something about where it might occur?
135
Keep your eye on Georgia.
136
Right now, there are federal monitors inside of Fulton County.
137
That's the county around Atlanta.
138
This has been a very controversial move by the Trump administration to put those federal monitors there.
139
President Trump has gone further than put the monitors there.
140
He's framed Fulton County as that disaster, he calls it.
141
And what could be a spark?
142
There could be a clash at any counting center, any voting center caught on video between
143
Trump's agents and Democratic protesters.
144
And President Trump has already told us what he plans to do if such a spark occurs.
145
He says he's fully expecting, quote, a call to send in the National Guard.
146
That's what he's already anticipated.
147
Now, while America votes, we have two other potential fires underway.
148
One is escalation in the Iran war.
149
Just recently at rallies yesterday, President Trump said, we can do it in 10 minutes,
150
referring to taking out this target called Pickaxe Mountain,
151
which is a nuclear facility that's under hundreds of feet of granite in Iran, where our biggest conventional bombs just can't touch them.
152
And what has just happened today?
153
Reports are that Netanyahu, the prime minister of Israel, is pressuring Trump right now, just in the last several,
154
in the last 24 hours, to use a nuclear weapon on Pickaxe Mountain.
155
And the reports further say that that pressure is to do it before November 7th, just in the next few days.
156
Now, at the same time, we have a fire in Europe.
157
Putin has laid out a plan to turn off the electricity,
158
turn off the electricity in major cities in Ukraine right in the dead of winter.
159
This is more than turning off the lights.
160
This is essentially a plan to freeze Kiev.
161
Now, these sparks, these fires,
162
these fires are occurring simultaneously with the U .S midterms,
163
and there will undoubtedly be interaction effects.
164
Now, what should you watch over the next 24 hours?
165
Tonight, watch the rural turnout, especially in Georgia, North Carolina, and Texas.
166
And we'll start to see right away
167
when those rural counties start to report in just where those surveys were with the shy
168
or you might even call them hostile Trump voters.
169
tonight, keep an eye on any armed federal agents at polling or counting sites, especially if they're caught on video.
170
And then by tomorrow, we'll start to pay attention to who's refusing to accept any of these results and how loudly.
171
We'll also be paying attention to signals about potential strikes on Iran from our carriers, our B2s.
172
And also, we'll be keeping an eye on Poland, because Poland is undergoing its own crisis,
173
which fits into the wider escalation in Europe.
174
Now, this is all complicated.
175
That's why what we're going to do is come back tomorrow morning with how your world changes tomorrow.
176
I look forward to talking to you again early tomorrow,
177
the day after the midterm election vote.
ดาวน์โหลดแอป
ทุกอย่างที่ต้องใช้เพื่อพูดได้คล่อง
AI ให้คะแนนการออกเสียงให้คะแนนทุกประโยค
ฝึก IPAเชี่ยวชาญทุกเสียง
คำศัพท์สร้างคลังคำของคุณ
เกมคำศัพท์เล่นไปเรียนไป
FOR YOU
วิดีโอแนะนำ
C1181 ประโยค
This is the most important midterm election in modern American history. Here’s why.
Daily ConversationUniversity StudentsWorking Adults
C11
497 ประโยค
The unstoppable green revolution: Adam Tooze on the "most dramatic story in the history of energy”
Daily ConversationUniversity StudentsWorking Adults
C11
102 ประโยค
War Expert Reveals BRUTAL Truth About Iran’s Power Grab
Daily ConversationUniversity StudentsWorking Adults
C11
130 ประโยค
Is France signalling the end of neoliberalism?
Daily ConversationUniversity StudentsWorking Adults
C11
266 ประโยค
Pavel Durov | Communication Technology and the Struggle for Freedom
Daily ConversationUniversity StudentsWorking Adults
C13
38 ประโยค
Munk Debate on Ukraine – John Mearsheimer Closing Statement
Daily ConversationUniversity StudentsWorking Adults
B225 ประโยค
Wildfires and Extreme Heat Rage Across the West
Daily ConversationWorking Adults
B23
283 ประโยค
Cocky MAGA Kid Can't DEFEND Trump's Actions and RUNS AWAY
Daily ConversationUniversity StudentsWorking Adults
C12
65 ประโยค
Is War Over? — A Paradox Explained
Daily ConversationUniversity StudentsWorking Adults
C111
734 ประโยค
實戰練英文｜再不停，人類要滅了？！黃仁勳痛批 AI 末世論，川普突然 CALL-IN 亂入，大罵這個陰謀只會讓美國輸！｜Nvidia、All-In Summit｜長文、註解、大字版、中英對照
Business EnglishDaily ConversationUniversity Students
C11
658 ประโยค
Mearsheimer & Parsi | Will Trump & Israel strike Iran again?
Daily ConversationUniversity StudentsWorking Adults
C12
356 ประโยค
Alberta Separatism FLOPS Hard
Daily ConversationWorking Adults
คำศัพท์และข้อสังเกตด้านการพูดสำหรับบทเรียนนี้
บทเรียนฝึกพูดนี้ใช้วิดีโอ “Prof Robert Pape: THE FIRE SEASON BEGINS” เป็นสื่อ คำที่ถูกพูดซ้ำบ่อยที่สุด: spark, Trump, poll วิดีโอนี้มี 177 ประโยค และ 1927 คำ สำหรับฝึกพูดตาม ช่วงที่มีเสียงพูดยาว 15:01 ผู้พูดพูดด้วยความเร็วสม่ำเสมอ ประมาณ 128 คำต่อนาที เหมาะกับการฝึกพูดตาม 83% ของคำอยู่ใน 3,000 คำที่ใช้บ่อยที่สุดในภาษาอังกฤษ ส่วนที่เหลือควรดูไว้ก่อนเริ่มฝึก
คำศัพท์สำคัญในวิดีโอนี้
คำที่ควรเรียนรู้ 15 คำจากวิดีโอ พร้อมคำอ่านและความหมาย:
| คำศัพท์ | คำอ่าน | ความหมาย |
|---|---|---|
| spark คำนาม | /ˈspɑɹk/ | ประกาย, ลูกไฟ |
| voter คำนาม | /ˈvoʊtɚ/ | ผู้เลือกตั้ง |
| occur คำกริยา | /əˈkɜː/ | เกิด |
| monitor คำนาม | /ˈmɑ.nɪ.tɚ/ | จอภาพ, หน้าจอ |
| protest คำนาม | /ˈpɹoʊ.tɛst/ | การประท้วง |
| phenomenon คำนาม | /fəˈnɒm.ɪ.nən/ | ปรากฏการณ์ |
| percentage คำนาม | /pə(ɹ)ˈsɛntɪd͡ʒ/ | อัตราร้อยละ |
| complicated คำคุณศัพท์ | /ˈkɑm.plɪˌkeɪ.tɪd/ | ซับซ้อน |
| string คำนาม | /stɹɪŋ/ | ด้าย, เชือก |
| disaster คำนาม | /dɪˈzɑːs.təː/ | ภัยพิบัติ |
| refuse คำกริยา | /ɹɪˈfjuːz/ | ปฏิเสธ |
| rally คำนาม | /ˈɹæli/ | การชุมนุม, การเดินขบวน |
| butt คำนาม | /bʌt/ | ก้น, ตูด |
| lightning คำนาม | /ˈlaɪt.nɪŋ/ | ฟ้าแลบ, สายฟ้า |
| coin คำนาม | /ˈkoɪ̯n/ | เหรียญ |
กริยาวลีที่คุณจะได้ยิน
| คำศัพท์ | ความหมาย |
|---|---|
| turn off คำกริยา | ปิด, ดับ |
| come back คำกริยา | กลับมา |
ประโยคที่ควรฝึกพูดซ้ำ
ประโยคสั้น ๆ ที่สมบูรณ์จากวิดีโอ ซึ่งนำไปใช้ในบทสนทนาประจำวันได้:
- What we can't do is predict the sparks.
- What do I do?
- I'm going to be watching this, too.
ไวยากรณ์ในวิดีโอนี้
โครงสร้างที่ผู้พูดใช้บ่อยที่สุด พร้อมคำพูดจริงจากวิดีโอ:
| โครงสร้าง | ในวิดีโอ |
|---|---|
| Present perfect have/has + กริยาช่อง 3 — เหตุการณ์ในอดีตที่ยังเกี่ยวข้องกับปัจจุบัน | has doubled · we've seen · has been |
| Passive voice be + กริยาช่อง 3 — เน้นสิ่งที่เกิดขึ้น ไม่ใช่ผู้กระทำ | is not seated · are called · being sicked |
| Relative clauses who / which + อนุประโยค — ข้อมูลเพิ่มเติมเกี่ยวกับคนหรือสิ่งของ | book, which has · people who go · points, which means |
การออกเสียงที่ควรระวัง
ผู้พูดใช้รูปย่อและรูปลดเสียง 28 ครั้ง เช่น we're, we'll, didn't ให้พูดแบบสั้นตามที่ได้ยิน
- เสียง “sh” และ “zh”: essentially /ɪˈsɛnʃəli/, shooter /ˈʃuːtəː/, unusual /ʌnˈjuːʒ(u)əl/, interaction /ˌɪn.təˈɹæk.ʃən/, conventional /kənˈvɛnʃənl̩/
- คำยาว — ลงเสียงหนักให้ถูกพยางค์: electricity /ɪˌlɛkˈtɹɪsɪti/, essentially /ɪˈsɛnʃəli/, phenomenon /fəˈnɒm.ɪ.nən/, complicated /ˈkɑm.plɪˌkeɪ.tɪd/, unusual /ʌnˈjuːʒ(u)əl/
เสียงที่คนไทยมักออกเสียงยาก:
- เสียงท้ายคำ — ออกเสียงให้ครบ ไม่เปลี่ยนเป็นตัวสะกดแบบไทย: poll /poʊl/, tremendous /tɹɪˈmɛndəs/, percentage /pə(ɹ)ˈsɛntɪd͡ʒ/, unusual /ʌnˈjuːʒ(u)əl/, refuse /ɹɪˈfjuːz/
- /v/ — ไม่ใช่ /w/ ให้ฟันบนแตะริมฝีปากล่าง: violent /ˈvaɪ.ə.lənt/, voter /ˈvoʊtɚ/, conventional /kənˈvɛnʃənl̩/, controversial /ˌkɑn.tɹəˈvɝ.ʃəl/, resolve /ɹɪˈzɑlv/
- /z/ — เสียงก้อง ไม่ใช่ /s/: disaster /dɪˈzɑːs.təː/, refuse /ɹɪˈfjuːz/, resolve /ɹɪˈzɑlv/, freeze /ˈfɹiːz/, observe /əbˈzɜːv/
วิธีฝึกกับวิดีโอนี้
- ฟังวิดีโอให้จบหนึ่งรอบโดยยังไม่ต้องพูด แล้วจดคำที่ยังไม่รู้จัก
- พูดตามทีละประโยคด้วยความเร็วปกติ ทำซ้ำแต่ละประโยคจนจังหวะของคุณตรงกับผู้พูด
- อัดเสียงตัวเองแล้วเทียบกับต้นฉบับ โดยสังเกตคำอย่าง spark, voter, occur เป็นพิเศษ
เทคนิค Shadowing คืออะไร?
Shadowing เป็นเทคนิคการเรียนรู้ภาษาที่ได้รับการรับรองทางวิทยาศาสตร์ พัฒนาขึ้นสำหรับการฝึกนักแปลมืออาชีพ วิธีการนี้เรียบง่ายแต่ทรงพลัง: คุณฟังเสียงภาษาอังกฤษจากเจ้าของภาษาและพูดตามทันที — เหมือนเงาที่ตามผู้พูดด้วยช่วงเวลาห่าง 1-2 วินาที การวิจัยแสดงว่าเทคนิคนี้ปรับปรุงความแม่นยำในการออกเสียง ทำนองเสียง จังหวะ การเชื่อมเสียง การฟังเข้าใจ และความคล่องแคล่วในการพูดได้อย่างมีนัยสำคัญ