Luyện nói tiếng Anh bằng Shadowing qua video: How China Could Fall Into the Middle-Income Trap

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China's economic rise over the past four decades has been nothing short of remarkable.

A poor, agrarian nation in the late 1970s has transformed into the world's second-largest economy, lifting hundreds of millions out of poverty.

Một quốc gia nông nghiệp nghèo khó vào cuối những năm 1970 đã chuyển đổi thành nền kinh tế lớn thứ hai thế giới, đưa hàng trăm triệu người thoát khỏi nghèo đói.

As incomes grew, China found itself in the ranks of middle-income countries,

meaning that its average citizen now earns more than those in low-income countries, but not yet as much as people in high-income nations.

To illustrate this, consider the World Bank's income classifications.

For 2025, a country must have a GNI per capita – Atlas method – over $14,005 to be considered high-income.

According to the latest data for 2023,

China's GNI per capita is around $13,390,

close to the threshold but still falling short.

But here's a problem that many see.

Some believe that China may never surpass this classification.

There is a growing concern that China might remain a middle-income economy rather than evolving into a high-income nation.

The worry stems from several recent economic challenges and the broader observation that,

as economies grow, their growth tends to slow and can even get stuck in what is known as the middle-income trap.

According to the World Bank's World Development Report for 2024, over 108 countries, roughly three-quarters of the world's population,

fall into the middle-income category and risk being caught in the middle-income trap.

These countries, including major emerging economies like Brazil, Turkey, South Africa, and India, have experienced significant growth in past decades,

but still struggle to reach the living standards of high-income nations.

So, why does this happen?

And will it happen to China as well?

Well, one of the problems with China today can be traced back from its economic growth.

If we graph out China's annual GDP growth rate, we can easily see how China used to grow at around 7-10% per year.

In fact, in the first decade of this century, China grew at an average rate of 10%.

But as you can see, and as we zoom in on the data, China's GDP growth rate has slowed down.

Since the COVID-19 pandemic of 2020, China's GDP growth has been sitting at low rates.

In fact, if we add the projections made by the IMF until 2029 for China's economy,

we get to see that China's GDP growth rate isn't actually projected to grow as much as it once did, it is now projected to fall.

By 2029, the IMF projects that China would only grow by 3.3%,

which by that time wouldn't put China as one of the world's fastest growing economies, but rather one of the slowest among developing nations.

In other words, China's current growth rates in the approximately 3-5% range, if sustained, may not be sufficient to quickly vault it into high-income status.

Some reports even say that, at current trends, it might take China 10 years just to reach a level of income per head

that is 25% of US levels, which is well below fully developed status.

So, what's causing this slowdown?

Well, as we mentioned earlier, part of it is because of the fact that as economies grow, their growth tends to slow down.

But a significant part of the slowdown appears structural rather than just the expected easing of growth.

Some analysts point out weak productivity and population ageing as brakes on China's growth going forward.

In other words, China's workforce is no longer expanding like before, and efficiency gains are harder to come by.

You can easily see this if we graph out China's median age.

Here you can see that the median age in China has dramatically risen.

If you compare it to the United States, you even get to see that China's median age is much higher, which means that China is ageing faster than many developed countries,

even before it has become fully rich.

This is often called getting old before getting rich, a challenge that makes it harder for China to maintain strong economic momentum.

So the big question is whether China can keep boosting per capita income at a fast clip, or if it will plateau.

A plateau would indicate a trap.

And here, productivity is key.

In the long run, per capita income rises only if productivity, output per worker,

rises especially once demographic tailwinds fade during its boom years china's

growth was driven by a mix of factors mobilizing millions of

workers from farm to factory massive capital investments in infrastructure

and real estate and some productivity improvements from adopting foreign technology

and better practices

but according to some estimates technological progress total factor productivity tfp contributed relatively modestly to china's growth especially in recent years.

A growth decomposition by the Conference Board found that in the period up to 2019, capital investment accounted for the bulk of China's growth,

with labor contributions as well, but TFP growth averaged near zero or even negative.

Here, as you can see in the graph, China's total factor productivity, TFP, which measures efficiency and innovation,

has been consistently weak or even negative across many decades.

In fact, the table shows that during 2020-2024, TFP contributed only 0.7% to growth,

while in other decades, like 1980-89 and 2010-19,

it was actually negative 0.1% and minus 0.5% respectively.

The long-term average from 1953 to 2024 is almost flat at negative 0.1%,

indicating that TFP barely added to growth over the 70-year period.

Meanwhile, capital investment K has been doing the heavy lifting.

From 2000 to 2009, capital accounted for 7.0% growth, and even in recent years,

2020 to 2024, it contributed 3.7%, despite slowing down.

In fact, capital has contributed about 79% of total growth on average, based on the last row, K% of total.

This suggests that China's growth model has heavily relied on building infrastructure, factories and housing, rather than becoming more productive or efficient.

That's fine in the early stages of development, but as countries mature, continued growth usually requires strong innovation,

better institutions and smarter labor markets.

So, if China wants to escape the middle-income trap, it must shift away from just pouring money into buildings and start boosting TFP,

through things like research and development, education, private sector efficiency, and institutional reform.

Without that, the slowing productivity could cap its long-term potential and keep it stuck at the middle income level.

Thankfully, China has been doing that.

They have recognized the need to boost innovation.

It has ramped up spending on research and development significantly.

If we graph out the research and development expenditure as a percentage of GDP of China, we get to see that it is rising fast.

This R&D intensity is now on par with many developed countries.

If we graph out the comparison, we actually get to see that R&D spending is much more than many developed economies.

Here, you can see that China has a higher R&D spending to GDP as compared to France,

Singapore, Norway, Australia, and a long list of other economies.

Due to this, China is now producing more STEM graduates than any other country and files enormous numbers of patents.

We can also graph out the patent applications by country, and we get to see that China is far ahead of the rest of the world.

But then again, just because China is investing a lot into R&D, it doesn't mean that the payoff is immediate or even guaranteed.

Despite the surge in innovation spending, there is concern that China's productivity growth has slowed sharply in the last decade.

Output per worker in manufacturing and services isn't growing like it used to.

This could be due to misallocation, e.g. lots of R&D spending,

but in areas with limited returns or talented graduates going into low productivity sectors due to state priorities,

etc. Or due to the difficulty of reaching the technological frontier where gains are harder.

In middle-income traps, stagnating productivity is the central symptom.

The economy fails to move from catch-up, growth, to innovation, growth.

China's own economic officials are aware of this.

They have often talked about the need to avoid what they call the big but not strong problem,

having a large economy but not an efficient or advanced one.

Former Premier Li Keqiang famously remarked on how parts of China's GDP, like construction, were of low quality.

The government's current strategy emphasizes high-quality development, essentially code for more productivity-driven growth,

rather than just growth for growth's sake.

A concrete indicator of China's productivity challenge is the Incremental Capital Output Ratio,

ICOR, which measures how much investment is needed to generate one unit of economic output.

A higher I-core means that more capital is required to produce the same amount of growth, indicating lower efficiency.

And this ratio for China has worsened, meaning China needs to pile on a lot more debt and investment to achieve the same growth.

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Here's a graph that clearly shows the problem.

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On the left table, we can see that China's debt-to-GDP ratio has surged over the years,

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from 242% in 2016 to a projected 303% in 2024.

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This means that for every one yuan of economic output, China is carrying over three yuan of total debt in the system.

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This rising burden is measured by Total Social Financing, which includes all forms of credit in the economy,

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from bank loans to shadow banking.

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Meanwhile, on the right table, shows the efficiency of debt by comparing the change in TSF to change in GDP.

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The higher this ratio, the less efficient the economy is at turning debt into growth.

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In 2020, for example, this ratio reached a shocking 11.99, meaning China needed nearly 12 units of debt to generate just one unit of economic growth.

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Even in 2023 and 2024, the ratios remain high at 6.46 and 5.52, respectively.

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This highlights a dangerous trend.

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China is borrowing more and more, but getting less and less out of it.

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It's like pressing harder on the gas pedal while the car slows down.

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To sum up, China has achieved middle-income status, but further gains in per capita income will depend on raising productivity and moving up the value chain.

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But as things stand, it is still possible for China to break the middle-income trap, simply because it's nearly there already.

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China is on the doorstep of becoming a high-income country, and all it needs to do is to push their economy by a little.

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But only time will tell whether that would actually happen.

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But anyway, do let us know what you think.

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“may never surpass” - có thể không bao giờ vượt qua: Cấu trúc này thể hiện khả năng không chắc chắn, rất hữu ích khi bạn muốn biểu đạt sự nghi ngờ.
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Luyện nói tiếng Anh bằng Shadowing qua video: How China Could Fall Into the Middle-Income Trap

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Phương Pháp Shadowing Là Gì?