跟讀練習: Why US Stocks May ‘Grind Higher’ - 通過影片學習英語口語
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119 句
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1
This is The Markets.
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I'm Mike Washington.
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Today is Wednesday, August 5th, and I'm on the Goldman Sachs equities trading floor, joined by Ashok Baradon, the co-head of global banking and markets at Goldman Sachs.
4
Ashok, it's great to have you.
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Yeah, it's good to be here again.
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I got to tell you, there's a ton going on right now.
我得跟你說，現在事情可多了。
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I feel like there's a bunch of different ways that we could take this conversation, but I want to start on AI and momentum.
我覺得我們可以從很多不同的方向展開這次對話，但我想先從人工智慧和發展勢頭說起。
8
You were on this podcast back in Q4 of 2025.
你曾在2025年第四季度上過這個播客節目。
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You said that stocks are going higher and AI specifically was going higher.
你之前說股市會上漲，尤其是AI板塊會走高。
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We just had one of the most violent momentum drawdowns in history last week to a V-shaped recovery in tech, and S&P sits at all-time highs.
上週我們剛剛經歷了史上最劇烈的一次動量回撤，隨後科技股走出V型反彈，標普指數也創下歷史新高。
11
Do you feel like this is the setup that markets could continue to grind higher on the go forward, or is there a wall of worry that we still have to get over?
您是否認為當前的市場環境會推動其持續緩慢走高，還是說我們仍然需要克服一系列令人擔憂的障礙？
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I think we probably grind higher.
我認為我們很可能會逐步走高。
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I'd say, obviously, July was a difficult month for markets, I'd say, across a bunch of variety of different things.
我想說，顯然7月份對市場來說是艱難的一個月，涉及到很多不同的方面。
14
I'd say, first, obviously, the war re-escalated, and that obviously created some trepidation in the market.
我認為，首先，很明顯，戰爭再次升級，這顯然給市場帶來了一些恐慌。
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There was obviously nervousness that the Fed could potentially hike rates, and that created, you know, an item on the wall of worry.
顯然市場存在對美聯儲可能加息的擔憂，這又增添了一個令人憂慮的因素。
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And then, of course, you know, that kind of related to and kind of somewhat unrelated to, like you said, the violent tech momentum unwind that we saw.
然後，當然，你知道，這在某種程度上與我們之前看到的科技股猛烈的動量回調有關，但又像你說的，有一定的獨立性。
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And I think sort of all of those things, not just the tech momentum unwind, but I think all of those things kind of hit something like a recovery towards the latter part of July.
我認為所有這些因素，不僅僅是科技股漲勢的消退，都會在七月下旬左右迎來某種程度的復甦。
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And so it feels like, you know, signals are a little bit clear ahead.
所以感覺前面的訊號稍微清晰了一些。
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I'd also say is clearly it's well documented that there was a lot of leverage in the AI trade.
我還要說的是，有充分證據表明，AI交易領域存在大量槓桿操作。
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And I think a lot of that leverage has been unwound, which leads for a higher quality rally going forward.
而且我認為很多這類槓桿已經被解除，這將推動未來出現更高質量的上漲行情。
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One feature of 2026 has been that single stock vol relative to index vol is stretched.
2026年市場的一個特點是，單一股票的波動率相對於指數波動率已處於極端水平。
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The spread is very high.
點差非常高。
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What do you make of that?
你對此有什麼看法？
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Is that a feature that is going to continue into the end of 2026?
這個功能會一直持續到2026年底嗎？
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Or do you start to see that revert where index vol starts to match what you're seeing on the single stock side?
還是說你開始看到出現迴歸，指數波動率開始與個股層面的情況趨於一致？
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I think we're going to still see high levels of dispersion.
我認為我們仍將看到高度的離散性。
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I don't know if it's going to be as extreme as what we saw.
我不確定情況是否會像我們之前看到的那樣極端。
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In fact, what's interesting is given all of the things that transpired in the month of July, the S&P was unchanged.
事實上，有趣的是，考慮到七月份發生的所有事情，標準普爾指數卻保持不變。
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So that gives you a sense of the stability that you're seeing at the index level, but the variance that you're seeing on the single stock level.
這讓你能感受到指數層面所呈現的穩定性，以及個股層面所呈現的波動性。
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I think that's likely to continue because of this AI theme affects companies so differently, whether you're in the supply side of the chain,
我認為這種情況可能會持續下去，因為人工智慧主題對不同公司的影響差異巨大，無論你處於產業鏈的供給端，
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whether you're a consumer of AI, whether you're a hyperscaler.
無論您是人工智慧的使用者，還是超大規模企業。
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I think there are so many different facets that affect sort of the perception of your company on a go-forward basis.
我認為有很多不同的方面會影響外界對貴公司未來的看法。
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So that's likely to continue.
因此這種情況很可能會持續下去。
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That being said, I think we've probably seen the extremes of dispersion.
話雖如此，我認為我們可能已經看到了離散程度的極端情況。
35
You mentioned the Fed.
你提到了美聯儲。
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You mentioned some of these cross-currents of what the interest rate environment is looking like.
您剛才提到了利率環境所呈現的一些相互交織的影響因素。
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We came into the year expecting cuts.
我們在進入這一年時原本預計會出現降息。
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It doesn't feel like we're getting that at all.
感覺我們根本沒得到那樣的待遇。
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Actually, we're probably going to get a hike by the end of the year
實際上，我們年底前很可能會漲薪。
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if you look at what the market's pricing in.
如果你觀察市場的定價預期。
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What do you make of that?
你對此有什麼看法？
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What do you make of the interest rate path on the go-forward?
您對未來的利率走勢有什麼看法？
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I don't think we will see hikes in the latter part of this year.
我認為今年下半年我們不會看到加息。
44
I think rates are going to stay on hold.
我認為利率將維持不變。
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I know that's a little bit counter consensus or that's not consistent with what you're seeing in market pricing.
我知道這有點不符合共識，或者說與你在市場定價中看到的情況不一致。
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But my view is that a lot of the things
但我的觀點是，很多事情
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which caused inflation to be elevated are a little bit in the rearview mirror,
導致通脹居高不下的那些因素已有所緩解。
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obviously with respect to tariffs and also if you believe that we're on the precipice of getting a deal, certainly around the Strait of Hormuz.
顯然，在關稅問題上，以及如果你認為我們即將達成一項協議，尤其是在霍爾木茲海峽相關的問題上。
49
I'd also say that, you know, while the AI infra build out, you know, can put pressure on resources and,
我還想說，在人工智慧基礎設施建設的過程中，可能會給資源帶來壓力，
50
you know, stoke some inflation fears over the long run.
從長遠來看，這會加劇人們對通脹的擔憂。
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I do think it's, you know, once the infra is built, it's fairly disinflationary.
我確實認為，一旦基礎設施建成，它會產生相當明顯的抑制通脹效應。
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I want to double click on that AI infra that you just mentioned,
我想深入瞭解一下你剛才提到的那個AI基礎設施。
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in particular to credit, if you put your credit lens on as hyperscalers,
特別是在信貸方面，如果你們像超大規模雲服務商那樣以信貸視角來審視，
54
companies are having to tap into debt markets to now finance some of these AI investments.
如今，企業不得不借助債務市場來為部分人工智慧投資提供資金。
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Are you surprised that credit spreads have remained tight in light of that?
考慮到這一點，你會不會對信用利差一直保持低位感到驚訝？
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And then to a second point, you don't expect rate hikes this year.
接下來是第二點，你預計今年不會加息。
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Do you think that that actually presents a really constructive backdrop for credit?
您認為這實際上為信貸創造了一個非常有建設性的環境嗎？
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I'm fairly constructive on credit.
我對信貸前景持相當樂觀的態度。
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That being said, we're seeing a lot of supply.
話雖如此，我們現在看到供應十分充足。
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And I think with that supply, there needs to be a little bit more of a risk premium or a little bit more of a concession.
我認為考慮到這種供應情況，需要有更高的風險溢價或更大的折讓。
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I think you're seeing that.
我想你已經看到了。
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I think part of the reason why credit spreads are not
我認為信貸利差未能收窄的部分原因是
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moving out wildly is the actual underlying nominal economy has proved itself incredibly resilient despite some of these exogenous shocks.
實際的基本面名義經濟正在強勁擴張，事實證明，儘管遭遇了一些外部衝擊，它仍展現出極強的韌性。
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And so if you think the exogenous shocks are going away and you still have the resilience of the economy,
因此，如果你認為外部衝擊正在消失，而且經濟仍然具備韌性，
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I think you can still say that your sort of realized expectation of default remains fairly low.
我認為你仍然可以說，你對違約的預期程度仍然相當低。
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On the currency side, there was some yen intervention last week to stabilize Asian markets.
在匯率方面，上週日本進行了一些日元干預以穩定亞洲市場。
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How do you factor the risk that is posed
您如何評估所帶來的風險？
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if the yen destabilizes in the way that potentially people are starting to fear.
如果日元以人們可能開始擔憂的方式出現不穩定
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Coming out of the pandemic, and certainly over the course of the last three or four years, you've seen inflation all around the globe running above stated central bank targets.
疫情結束以來，當然在過去三四年間，全球各地的通貨膨脹率一直高於各國央行設定的目標。
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I think you've seen normalization in the U.S., you've seen normalization in Europe, whether that be in Eurozone or in the U.K., and you haven't seen meaningful normalization in Japan.
我認為你已經看到了美國的政策正常化，也看到了歐洲的正常化，無論是歐元區還是英國，但日本尚未出現有意義的正常化。
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And that's the reason why the yen is trading weak.
這就是日元走弱的原因。
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I don't really believe in intervention.
我其實並不認同干預的做法。
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I don't think it works over the longer run.
我認為從長遠來看這行不通。
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I think ultimately to see stabilization in the end, the Bank of Japan is going to have to normalize rates properly.
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That makes a ton of sense.
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We've talked currencies.
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We've talked credit.
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We've talked equities, rates.
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If you had to package it up into one trade right now, what's the trade?
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Well, I think there are a couple of different things.
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I think, one, I think energy is going to go back down.
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I think oil settles back down well below $70 a barrel, maybe even lower once we get towards the latter part of the year.
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I think that that makes me very constructive on front-end yields in the U.S.
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I think, you know, if you look at hikes priced in, I think that's fairly attractive.
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And like I said before, I think that leads for a backdrop in which sort of the overall market is going to really participate in both, you know, the productivity gains from AI,
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but also a resilient economy.
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Which I also think underscores your probably broader thesis that markets are headed higher.
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There's a really constructive backdrop.
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Growth is strong.
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You just look at this earnings period and we should continue to grind higher into your end.
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Yeah, I'd say stay invested.
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Stay invested would be my advice.
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Which was your thesis in Q4 and you were right.
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Stay invested.
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Okay, Ashok, what are you watching moving forward?
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We have a jobs report, which I want to pay a lot of attention to.
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And of course, we get more readings on inflation.
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Those are the two pieces of the puzzle that we don't have.
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And so we'll be paying close attention to that.
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Awesome.
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Ashok, it's always great to have you here.
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Thank you.
謝謝。
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And that does it for this week's episode of The Markets.
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I'm Mike Washington.
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Thanks for listening.
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為何這個影片是絕佳的英語口語練習素材？
這段關於美股走勢的對話兼具實用性與真實性，非常適合用來練習“shadowspeak”（影子跟讀法）。對話中涉及金融術語如“動量回撤”“波動率價差”，但表達簡潔自然，既貼近真實職場交流場景，又能幫助學習者積累專業詞彙。對於備考雅思口語的同學來說，這種邏輯清晰的討論結構（提出問題→分析現象→給出觀點），更是鍛鍊雅思口語練習中“論述能力”的好素材。
拆解自然表達，掌握地道口語
我們可以從對話中提煉3個典型表達，學習其流暢性：
- “I think we probably grind higher.” 這裡“grind higher”用“磨”的意象表達“緩慢上漲”，比生硬的“rise slowly”更生動。在口語中，用具體動作替代抽象描述，能讓表達更有畫面感。
- “That gives you a sense of the stability...” 短語“give you a sense of”是母語者常用的“傳遞某種感覺”的表達方式，避免了“let you know”的重複，適合在看YouTube學英語時積累。
- “a lot of the things which caused inflation to be elevated are a little bit in the rearview mirror” 用“後視鏡裡的事物”比喻“過去的問題”，形象且口語化。這種隱喻表達能讓雅思口語回答更具亮點。
影子跟讀法練習步驟，提升口語流暢度
利用這段影片進行“shadow speak”訓練，可遵循以下步驟：
- 先完整聽一遍對話，注意說話人的語氣和停頓；
- 逐句播放，每句結束後立即跟讀，模仿重音（如“high quality rally”中的“high quality”需重讀）和節奏；
- 錄製自己的跟讀音訊，對比原音，重點糾正“波動率”“美聯儲”等專業術語的發音；
- 挑選3句長難句（如關於利率路徑的分析），進行“延遲跟讀”（滯後1-2秒），訓練反應速度和語感。
堅持每天15分鐘，不僅能提升口語流暢度，還能積累金融領域詞彙，一舉多得。
影片中的語法
說話人最常用的結構，並附上影片中的原話：
| 結構 | 影片中的用法 |
|---|---|
| 現在完成時 have/has + 過去分詞 — 過去發生但與現在仍有關聯的事 | has been · we've probably seen · have remained |
| 被動語態 be + 過去分詞 — 強調發生了什麼，而不是誰做的 | is stretched · is given · being said |
什麼是跟讀法？
跟讀法 (Shadowing) 是一種有科學依據的語言學習技巧，最初開發用於專業口譯員的培訓，並由多語言者Alexander Arguelles博士普及。這個方法簡單而強大：您在聽英語母語原聲的同時立即大聲重複——就像是一個延遲1-2秒緊跟說話者的影子。與被動聽力或語法練習不同，跟讀法強迫您的大腦和口腔肌肉同時處理並模模擬實的講話模式。研究表明它能顯著提高發音準確性，語調，節奏，連讀，聽力理解和口語流利度——使其成為雅思口語備考和真實英語交流最有效的方法之一。