跟读练习: Why US Stocks May ‘Grind Higher’ - 通过视频学习英语口语
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This is The Markets.
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I'm Mike Washington.
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Today is Wednesday, August 5th, and I'm on the Goldman Sachs equities trading floor, joined by Ashok Baradon, the co-head of global banking and markets at Goldman Sachs.
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Ashok, it's great to have you.
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Yeah, it's good to be here again.
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I got to tell you, there's a ton going on right now.
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I feel like there's a bunch of different ways that we could take this conversation, but I want to start on AI and momentum.
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You were on this podcast back in Q4 of 2025.
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You said that stocks are going higher and AI specifically was going higher.
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We just had one of the most violent momentum drawdowns in history last week to a V-shaped recovery in tech, and S&P sits at all-time highs.
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Do you feel like this is the setup that markets could continue to grind higher on the go forward, or is there a wall of worry that we still have to get over?
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I think we probably grind higher.
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I'd say, obviously, July was a difficult month for markets, I'd say, across a bunch of variety of different things.
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I'd say, first, obviously, the war re-escalated, and that obviously created some trepidation in the market.
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There was obviously nervousness that the Fed could potentially hike rates, and that created, you know, an item on the wall of worry.
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And then, of course, you know, that kind of related to and kind of somewhat unrelated to, like you said, the violent tech momentum unwind that we saw.
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And I think sort of all of those things, not just the tech momentum unwind, but I think all of those things kind of hit something like a recovery towards the latter part of July.
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And so it feels like, you know, signals are a little bit clear ahead.
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I'd also say is clearly it's well documented that there was a lot of leverage in the AI trade.
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And I think a lot of that leverage has been unwound, which leads for a higher quality rally going forward.
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One feature of 2026 has been that single stock vol relative to index vol is stretched.
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The spread is very high.
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What do you make of that?
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Is that a feature that is going to continue into the end of 2026?
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Or do you start to see that revert where index vol starts to match what you're seeing on the single stock side?
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I think we're going to still see high levels of dispersion.
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I don't know if it's going to be as extreme as what we saw.
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In fact, what's interesting is given all of the things that transpired in the month of July, the S&P was unchanged.
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So that gives you a sense of the stability that you're seeing at the index level, but the variance that you're seeing on the single stock level.
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I think that's likely to continue because of this AI theme affects companies so differently, whether you're in the supply side of the chain,
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whether you're a consumer of AI, whether you're a hyperscaler.
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I think there are so many different facets that affect sort of the perception of your company on a go-forward basis.
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So that's likely to continue.
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That being said, I think we've probably seen the extremes of dispersion.
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You mentioned the Fed.
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You mentioned some of these cross-currents of what the interest rate environment is looking like.
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We came into the year expecting cuts.
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It doesn't feel like we're getting that at all.
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Actually, we're probably going to get a hike by the end of the year
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if you look at what the market's pricing in.
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What do you make of that?
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What do you make of the interest rate path on the go-forward?
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I don't think we will see hikes in the latter part of this year.
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I think rates are going to stay on hold.
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I know that's a little bit counter consensus or that's not consistent with what you're seeing in market pricing.
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But my view is that a lot of the things
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which caused inflation to be elevated are a little bit in the rearview mirror,
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obviously with respect to tariffs and also if you believe that we're on the precipice of getting a deal, certainly around the Strait of Hormuz.
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I'd also say that, you know, while the AI infra build out, you know, can put pressure on resources and,
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you know, stoke some inflation fears over the long run.
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I do think it's, you know, once the infra is built, it's fairly disinflationary.
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I want to double click on that AI infra that you just mentioned,
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in particular to credit, if you put your credit lens on as hyperscalers,
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companies are having to tap into debt markets to now finance some of these AI investments.
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Are you surprised that credit spreads have remained tight in light of that?
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And then to a second point, you don't expect rate hikes this year.
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Do you think that that actually presents a really constructive backdrop for credit?
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I'm fairly constructive on credit.
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That being said, we're seeing a lot of supply.
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And I think with that supply, there needs to be a little bit more of a risk premium or a little bit more of a concession.
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I think you're seeing that.
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I think part of the reason why credit spreads are not
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moving out wildly is the actual underlying nominal economy has proved itself incredibly resilient despite some of these exogenous shocks.
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And so if you think the exogenous shocks are going away and you still have the resilience of the economy,
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I think you can still say that your sort of realized expectation of default remains fairly low.
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On the currency side, there was some yen intervention last week to stabilize Asian markets.
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How do you factor the risk that is posed
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if the yen destabilizes in the way that potentially people are starting to fear.
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Coming out of the pandemic, and certainly over the course of the last three or four years, you've seen inflation all around the globe running above stated central bank targets.
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I think you've seen normalization in the U.S., you've seen normalization in Europe, whether that be in Eurozone or in the U.K., and you haven't seen meaningful normalization in Japan.
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And that's the reason why the yen is trading weak.
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I don't really believe in intervention.
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I don't think it works over the longer run.
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I think ultimately to see stabilization in the end, the Bank of Japan is going to have to normalize rates properly.
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That makes a ton of sense.
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We've talked currencies.
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We've talked credit.
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We've talked equities, rates.
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If you had to package it up into one trade right now, what's the trade?
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Well, I think there are a couple of different things.
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I think, one, I think energy is going to go back down.
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I think oil settles back down well below $70 a barrel, maybe even lower once we get towards the latter part of the year.
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I think that that makes me very constructive on front-end yields in the U.S.
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I think, you know, if you look at hikes priced in, I think that's fairly attractive.
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And like I said before, I think that leads for a backdrop in which sort of the overall market is going to really participate in both, you know, the productivity gains from AI,
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but also a resilient economy.
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Which I also think underscores your probably broader thesis that markets are headed higher.
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There's a really constructive backdrop.
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Growth is strong.
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You just look at this earnings period and we should continue to grind higher into your end.
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Yeah, I'd say stay invested.
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Stay invested would be my advice.
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Which was your thesis in Q4 and you were right.
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Stay invested.
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Okay, Ashok, what are you watching moving forward?
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We have a jobs report, which I want to pay a lot of attention to.
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And of course, we get more readings on inflation.
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Those are the two pieces of the puzzle that we don't have.
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And so we'll be paying close attention to that.
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Awesome.
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Ashok, it's always great to have you here.
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Thank you.
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And that does it for this week's episode of The Markets.
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I'm Mike Washington.
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Thanks for listening.
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The opinions and views expressed herein are as of the date of publication, subject to change without notice and may not necessarily reflect the institutional views of Goldman Sachs or its affiliates.
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The material provided is intended for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation from any Goldman Sachs entity to take any particular action,
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and disclaim any liability whatsoever for reliance on such information for any purpose.
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and is not used to imply any ownership or license rights between any such company and Goldman Sachs.
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A transcript is provided for convenience and may differ from the original video or audio content.
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为何这个视频是绝佳的英语口语练习素材？
这段关于美股走势的对话兼具实用性与真实性，非常适合用来练习“shadowspeak”（影子跟读法）。对话中涉及金融术语如“动量回撤”“波动率价差”，但表达简洁自然，既贴近真实职场交流场景，又能帮助学习者积累专业词汇。对于备考雅思口语的同学来说，这种逻辑清晰的讨论结构（提出问题→分析现象→给出观点），更是锻炼雅思口语练习中“论述能力”的好素材。
拆解自然表达，掌握地道口语
我们可以从对话中提炼3个典型表达，学习其流畅性：
- “I think we probably grind higher.” 这里“grind higher”用“磨”的意象表达“缓慢上涨”，比生硬的“rise slowly”更生动。在口语中，用具体动作替代抽象描述，能让表达更有画面感。
- “That gives you a sense of the stability...” 短语“give you a sense of”是母语者常用的“传递某种感觉”的表达方式，避免了“let you know”的重复，适合在看YouTube学英语时积累。
- “a lot of the things which caused inflation to be elevated are a little bit in the rearview mirror” 用“后视镜里的事物”比喻“过去的问题”，形象且口语化。这种隐喻表达能让雅思口语回答更具亮点。
影子跟读法练习步骤，提升口语流畅度
利用这段视频进行“shadow speak”训练，可遵循以下步骤：
- 先完整听一遍对话，注意说话人的语气和停顿；
- 逐句播放，每句结束后立即跟读，模仿重音（如“high quality rally”中的“high quality”需重读）和节奏；
- 录制自己的跟读音频，对比原音，重点纠正“波动率”“美联储”等专业术语的发音；
- 挑选3句长难句（如关于利率路径的分析），进行“延迟跟读”（滞后1-2秒），训练反应速度和语感。
坚持每天15分钟，不仅能提升口语流畅度，还能积累金融领域词汇，一举多得。
视频中的语法
说话人最常用的结构，并附上视频中的原话：
| 结构 | 视频中的用法 |
|---|---|
| 现在完成时 have/has + 过去分词 — 过去发生但与现在仍有关联的事 | has been · we've probably seen · have remained |
| 被动语态 be + 过去分词 — 强调发生了什么，而不是谁做的 | is stretched · is given · being said |
什么是跟读法？
跟读法 (Shadowing) 是一种有科学依据的语言学习技巧，最初开发用于专业口译员的培训，并由多语言者Alexander Arguelles博士普及。这个方法简单而强大：您在听英语母语原声的同时立即大声重复——就像是一个延迟1-2秒紧跟说话者的影子。与被动听力或语法练习不同，跟读法强迫您的大脑和口腔肌肉同时处理并模仿真实的讲话模式。研究表明它能显着提高发音准确性，语调，节奏，连读，听力理解和口语流利度——使其成为雅思口语备考和真实英语交流最有效的方法之一。