쉐도잉 연습: Why US Stocks May ‘Grind Higher’ - 영상으로 영어 말하기 배우기
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This is The Markets.
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I'm Mike Washington.
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Today is Wednesday, August 5th, and I'm on the Goldman Sachs equities trading floor, joined by Ashok Baradon, the co-head of global banking and markets at Goldman Sachs.
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Ashok, it's great to have you.
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Yeah, it's good to be here again.
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I got to tell you, there's a ton going on right now.
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I feel like there's a bunch of different ways that we could take this conversation, but I want to start on AI and momentum.
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You were on this podcast back in Q4 of 2025.
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You said that stocks are going higher and AI specifically was going higher.
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We just had one of the most violent momentum drawdowns in history last week to a V-shaped recovery in tech, and S&P sits at all-time highs.
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Do you feel like this is the setup that markets could continue to grind higher on the go forward, or is there a wall of worry that we still have to get over?
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I think we probably grind higher.
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I'd say, obviously, July was a difficult month for markets, I'd say, across a bunch of variety of different things.
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I'd say, first, obviously, the war re-escalated, and that obviously created some trepidation in the market.
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There was obviously nervousness that the Fed could potentially hike rates, and that created, you know, an item on the wall of worry.
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And then, of course, you know, that kind of related to and kind of somewhat unrelated to, like you said, the violent tech momentum unwind that we saw.
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And I think sort of all of those things, not just the tech momentum unwind, but I think all of those things kind of hit something like a recovery towards the latter part of July.
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And so it feels like, you know, signals are a little bit clear ahead.
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I'd also say is clearly it's well documented that there was a lot of leverage in the AI trade.
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And I think a lot of that leverage has been unwound, which leads for a higher quality rally going forward.
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One feature of 2026 has been that single stock vol relative to index vol is stretched.
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The spread is very high.
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What do you make of that?
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Is that a feature that is going to continue into the end of 2026?
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Or do you start to see that revert where index vol starts to match what you're seeing on the single stock side?
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I think we're going to still see high levels of dispersion.
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I don't know if it's going to be as extreme as what we saw.
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In fact, what's interesting is given all of the things that transpired in the month of July, the S&P was unchanged.
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So that gives you a sense of the stability that you're seeing at the index level, but the variance that you're seeing on the single stock level.
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I think that's likely to continue because of this AI theme affects companies so differently, whether you're in the supply side of the chain,
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whether you're a consumer of AI, whether you're a hyperscaler.
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I think there are so many different facets that affect sort of the perception of your company on a go-forward basis.
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So that's likely to continue.
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That being said, I think we've probably seen the extremes of dispersion.
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You mentioned the Fed.
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You mentioned some of these cross-currents of what the interest rate environment is looking like.
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We came into the year expecting cuts.
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It doesn't feel like we're getting that at all.
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Actually, we're probably going to get a hike by the end of the year
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if you look at what the market's pricing in.
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What do you make of that?
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What do you make of the interest rate path on the go-forward?
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I don't think we will see hikes in the latter part of this year.
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I think rates are going to stay on hold.
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I know that's a little bit counter consensus or that's not consistent with what you're seeing in market pricing.
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But my view is that a lot of the things
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which caused inflation to be elevated are a little bit in the rearview mirror,
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obviously with respect to tariffs and also if you believe that we're on the precipice of getting a deal, certainly around the Strait of Hormuz.
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I'd also say that, you know, while the AI infra build out, you know, can put pressure on resources and,
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you know, stoke some inflation fears over the long run.
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I do think it's, you know, once the infra is built, it's fairly disinflationary.
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I want to double click on that AI infra that you just mentioned,
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in particular to credit, if you put your credit lens on as hyperscalers,
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companies are having to tap into debt markets to now finance some of these AI investments.
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Are you surprised that credit spreads have remained tight in light of that?
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And then to a second point, you don't expect rate hikes this year.
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Do you think that that actually presents a really constructive backdrop for credit?
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I'm fairly constructive on credit.
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That being said, we're seeing a lot of supply.
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And I think with that supply, there needs to be a little bit more of a risk premium or a little bit more of a concession.
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I think you're seeing that.
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I think part of the reason why credit spreads are not
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moving out wildly is the actual underlying nominal economy has proved itself incredibly resilient despite some of these exogenous shocks.
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And so if you think the exogenous shocks are going away and you still have the resilience of the economy,
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I think you can still say that your sort of realized expectation of default remains fairly low.
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On the currency side, there was some yen intervention last week to stabilize Asian markets.
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How do you factor the risk that is posed
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if the yen destabilizes in the way that potentially people are starting to fear.
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Coming out of the pandemic, and certainly over the course of the last three or four years, you've seen inflation all around the globe running above stated central bank targets.
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I think you've seen normalization in the U.S., you've seen normalization in Europe, whether that be in Eurozone or in the U.K., and you haven't seen meaningful normalization in Japan.
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And that's the reason why the yen is trading weak.
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I don't really believe in intervention.
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I don't think it works over the longer run.
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I think ultimately to see stabilization in the end, the Bank of Japan is going to have to normalize rates properly.
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That makes a ton of sense.
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We've talked currencies.
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We've talked credit.
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We've talked equities, rates.
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If you had to package it up into one trade right now, what's the trade?
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Well, I think there are a couple of different things.
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I think, one, I think energy is going to go back down.
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I think oil settles back down well below $70 a barrel, maybe even lower once we get towards the latter part of the year.
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I think that that makes me very constructive on front-end yields in the U.S.
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I think, you know, if you look at hikes priced in, I think that's fairly attractive.
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And like I said before, I think that leads for a backdrop in which sort of the overall market is going to really participate in both, you know, the productivity gains from AI,
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but also a resilient economy.
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Which I also think underscores your probably broader thesis that markets are headed higher.
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There's a really constructive backdrop.
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Growth is strong.
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You just look at this earnings period and we should continue to grind higher into your end.
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Yeah, I'd say stay invested.
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Stay invested would be my advice.
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Which was your thesis in Q4 and you were right.
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Stay invested.
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Okay, Ashok, what are you watching moving forward?
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We have a jobs report, which I want to pay a lot of attention to.
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And of course, we get more readings on inflation.
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Those are the two pieces of the puzzle that we don't have.
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And so we'll be paying close attention to that.
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Awesome.
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Ashok, it's always great to have you here.
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Thank you.
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And that does it for this week's episode of The Markets.
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I'm Mike Washington.
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Thanks for listening.
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The opinions and views expressed herein are as of the date of publication, subject to change without notice and may not necessarily reflect the institutional views of Goldman Sachs or its affiliates.
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The material provided is intended for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation from any Goldman Sachs entity to take any particular action,
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This material may contain forward-looking statements.
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and disclaim any liability whatsoever for reliance on such information for any purpose.
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and is not used to imply any ownership or license rights between any such company and Goldman Sachs.
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A transcript is provided for convenience and may differ from the original video or audio content.
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Goldman Sachs is not responsible for any errors in the transcript.
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This material should not be copied, distributed, published, or reproduced in whole or in part, or disclosed by any recipient to any other person without the express written consent of Goldman Sachs.
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대화의 맥락과 배경
이 비디오는 금융 시장 전문가와의 대화로, 미국 주식 시장의 전망, AI 기술의 영향, 연준의 금리 정책 등에 대해 다룹니다. 전문적인 금융 용어와 복잡한 논리가 포함되어 있어 영어 회화 연습에 좋은 자료입니다. 특히 shadow speech나 shadowspeak과 같은 기법을 사용해 발음과 리듬을 연습할 수 있습니다.
일상 대화에 유용한 상위 5개의 구문
- "I think we probably grind higher." - "우리는 아마도 점진적으로 상승할 것입니다." (추측적인 의견 표현)
- "There's a ton going on right now." - "지금 정말 많은 일이 일어나고 있습니다." (상황 설명)
- "That gives you a sense of the stability." - "그것은 안정성에 대한 감각을 줍니다." (추론 표현)
- "I don't think we will see hikes." - "우리는 인상이 있을 거라고 생각하지 않습니다." (부정적인 의견)
- "It's well documented that..." - "...라는 것은 잘 알려져 있습니다." (사실 강조)
단계별 Shadowing 가이드
이 비디오는 속도가 빠르고 용어가 어렵기 때문에 shadow speak 연습을 할 때는 다음 단계를 따라야 합니다. 먼저 비디오를 2-3번 듣고 전체 맥락을 파악합니다. 그다음 문장을 짧게 나누어 반복해서 따라합니다. 특히 "grind higher"나 "wall of worry"와 같은 관용구의 발음에 주의합니다. IELTS 스피킹 준비를 위해서는 논리적인 흐름을 따라가며 자신의 말로 재구성하는 연습도 중요합니다. 매일 15분씩坚持하면 발음과 리듬이 크게 향상될 것입니다.
이 영상의 문법
화자가 가장 많이 쓰는 문형을 영상 속 실제 표현과 함께 정리했습니다.
| 문형 | 영상 속 표현 |
|---|---|
| 현재완료 have/has + 과거분사 — 과거의 일이 지금도 관련이 있을 때 | has been · we've probably seen · have remained |
| 수동태 be + 과거분사 — 누가 하는지보다 무슨 일이 일어나는지에 초점 | is stretched · is given · being said |
쉐도잉이란? 영어 실력을 빠르게 키우는 과학적 방법
쉐도잉(Shadowing)은 원래 전문 통역사 훈련을 위해 개발된 언어 학습 기법으로, 다언어 학자인 Dr. Alexander Arguelles에 의해 대중화된 방법입니다. 핵심 원리는 간단하지만 매우 강력합니다: 원어민의 영어를 들으면서 1~2초의 짧은 지연으로 즉시 소리 내어 따라 말하는 것——마치 '그림자(shadow)'처럼 화자를 따라가는 것입니다. 문법 공부나 수동적인 청취와 달리, 쉐도잉은 뇌와 입 근육이 동시에 실시간으로 영어를 처리하고 재현하도록 훈련합니다. 연구에 따르면 이 방법은 발음 정확도, 억양, 리듬, 연음, 청취력, 말하기 유창성을 크게 향상시킵니다. IELTS 스피킹 준비와 자연스러운 영어 소통을 원하는 분들에게 특히 효과적입니다.