ฝึกพูดภาษาอังกฤษด้วยเทคนิค Shadowing จากวิดีโอ: Why US Stocks May ‘Grind Higher’
กำลังสร้างบทเรียน...
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This is The Markets.
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I'm Mike Washington.
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Today is Wednesday, August 5th, and I'm on the Goldman Sachs equities trading floor, joined by Ashok Baradon, the co-head of global banking and markets at Goldman Sachs.
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Ashok, it's great to have you.
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Yeah, it's good to be here again.
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I got to tell you, there's a ton going on right now.
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I feel like there's a bunch of different ways that we could take this conversation, but I want to start on AI and momentum.
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You were on this podcast back in Q4 of 2025.
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You said that stocks are going higher and AI specifically was going higher.
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We just had one of the most violent momentum drawdowns in history last week to a V-shaped recovery in tech, and S&P sits at all-time highs.
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Do you feel like this is the setup that markets could continue to grind higher on the go forward, or is there a wall of worry that we still have to get over?
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I think we probably grind higher.
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I'd say, obviously, July was a difficult month for markets, I'd say, across a bunch of variety of different things.
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I'd say, first, obviously, the war re-escalated, and that obviously created some trepidation in the market.
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There was obviously nervousness that the Fed could potentially hike rates, and that created, you know, an item on the wall of worry.
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And then, of course, you know, that kind of related to and kind of somewhat unrelated to, like you said, the violent tech momentum unwind that we saw.
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And I think sort of all of those things, not just the tech momentum unwind, but I think all of those things kind of hit something like a recovery towards the latter part of July.
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And so it feels like, you know, signals are a little bit clear ahead.
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I'd also say is clearly it's well documented that there was a lot of leverage in the AI trade.
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And I think a lot of that leverage has been unwound, which leads for a higher quality rally going forward.
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One feature of 2026 has been that single stock vol relative to index vol is stretched.
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The spread is very high.
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What do you make of that?
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Is that a feature that is going to continue into the end of 2026?
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Or do you start to see that revert where index vol starts to match what you're seeing on the single stock side?
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I think we're going to still see high levels of dispersion.
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I don't know if it's going to be as extreme as what we saw.
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In fact, what's interesting is given all of the things that transpired in the month of July, the S&P was unchanged.
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So that gives you a sense of the stability that you're seeing at the index level, but the variance that you're seeing on the single stock level.
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I think that's likely to continue because of this AI theme affects companies so differently, whether you're in the supply side of the chain,
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whether you're a consumer of AI, whether you're a hyperscaler.
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I think there are so many different facets that affect sort of the perception of your company on a go-forward basis.
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So that's likely to continue.
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That being said, I think we've probably seen the extremes of dispersion.
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You mentioned the Fed.
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You mentioned some of these cross-currents of what the interest rate environment is looking like.
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We came into the year expecting cuts.
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It doesn't feel like we're getting that at all.
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Actually, we're probably going to get a hike by the end of the year
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if you look at what the market's pricing in.
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What do you make of that?
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What do you make of the interest rate path on the go-forward?
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I don't think we will see hikes in the latter part of this year.
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I think rates are going to stay on hold.
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I know that's a little bit counter consensus or that's not consistent with what you're seeing in market pricing.
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But my view is that a lot of the things
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which caused inflation to be elevated are a little bit in the rearview mirror,
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obviously with respect to tariffs and also if you believe that we're on the precipice of getting a deal, certainly around the Strait of Hormuz.
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I'd also say that, you know, while the AI infra build out, you know, can put pressure on resources and,
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you know, stoke some inflation fears over the long run.
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I do think it's, you know, once the infra is built, it's fairly disinflationary.
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I want to double click on that AI infra that you just mentioned,
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in particular to credit, if you put your credit lens on as hyperscalers,
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companies are having to tap into debt markets to now finance some of these AI investments.
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Are you surprised that credit spreads have remained tight in light of that?
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And then to a second point, you don't expect rate hikes this year.
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Do you think that that actually presents a really constructive backdrop for credit?
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I'm fairly constructive on credit.
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That being said, we're seeing a lot of supply.
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And I think with that supply, there needs to be a little bit more of a risk premium or a little bit more of a concession.
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I think you're seeing that.
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I think part of the reason why credit spreads are not
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moving out wildly is the actual underlying nominal economy has proved itself incredibly resilient despite some of these exogenous shocks.
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And so if you think the exogenous shocks are going away and you still have the resilience of the economy,
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I think you can still say that your sort of realized expectation of default remains fairly low.
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On the currency side, there was some yen intervention last week to stabilize Asian markets.
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How do you factor the risk that is posed
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if the yen destabilizes in the way that potentially people are starting to fear.
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Coming out of the pandemic, and certainly over the course of the last three or four years, you've seen inflation all around the globe running above stated central bank targets.
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I think you've seen normalization in the U.S., you've seen normalization in Europe, whether that be in Eurozone or in the U.K., and you haven't seen meaningful normalization in Japan.
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And that's the reason why the yen is trading weak.
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I don't really believe in intervention.
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I don't think it works over the longer run.
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I think ultimately to see stabilization in the end, the Bank of Japan is going to have to normalize rates properly.
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That makes a ton of sense.
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We've talked currencies.
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We've talked credit.
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We've talked equities, rates.
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If you had to package it up into one trade right now, what's the trade?
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Well, I think there are a couple of different things.
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I think, one, I think energy is going to go back down.
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I think oil settles back down well below $70 a barrel, maybe even lower once we get towards the latter part of the year.
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I think that that makes me very constructive on front-end yields in the U.S.
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I think, you know, if you look at hikes priced in, I think that's fairly attractive.
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And like I said before, I think that leads for a backdrop in which sort of the overall market is going to really participate in both, you know, the productivity gains from AI,
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but also a resilient economy.
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Which I also think underscores your probably broader thesis that markets are headed higher.
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There's a really constructive backdrop.
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Growth is strong.
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You just look at this earnings period and we should continue to grind higher into your end.
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Yeah, I'd say stay invested.
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Stay invested would be my advice.
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Which was your thesis in Q4 and you were right.
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Stay invested.
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Okay, Ashok, what are you watching moving forward?
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We have a jobs report, which I want to pay a lot of attention to.
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And of course, we get more readings on inflation.
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Those are the two pieces of the puzzle that we don't have.
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And so we'll be paying close attention to that.
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Awesome.
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Ashok, it's always great to have you here.
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Thank you.
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And that does it for this week's episode of The Markets.
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I'm Mike Washington.
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Thanks for listening.
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เป้าหมายการพูดสำหรับคลิปนี้
ในวิดีโอนี้ เรามุ่งเน้นไปที่การพัฒนาทักษะการพูดภาษาอังกฤษเพื่อสร้างความมั่นใจในการสื่อสาร โดยเฉพาะอย่างยิ่งในบริบทของการพูดคุยเกี่ยวกับตลาดหุ้นและการวิเคราะห์เศรษฐกิจ ซึ่งเป็นหัวข้อที่มีความซับซ้อนและต้องการการใช้ศัพท์เฉพาะทาง การฝึกฝนในหัวข้อนี้จะช่วยให้คุณสามารถสื่อสารความคิดได้อย่างชัดเจนและมีประสิทธิภาพมากขึ้น
คลังคำและวลี
- “grind higher” - เพิ่มขึ้นอย่างช้าๆ
- “wall of worry” - ความกังวลต่างๆ
- “momentum” - แรงผลักดัน
- “high levels of dispersion” - ระดับการกระจายที่สูง
- “interest rate” - อัตราดอกเบี้ย
การมีคลังคำและวลีเช่นนี้จะช่วยให้คุณสามารถนำไปใช้ในบทสนทนาเกี่ยวกับการลงทุนหรือการวิเคราะห์ตลาดได้อย่างมั่นใจยิ่งขึ้น
ปรับปรุงจุดอ่อนของคุณ
วิดีโอนี้จะช่วยคุณปรับปรุงการออกเสียงภาษาอังกฤษของคุณ โดยเฉพาะในแง่ของการออกเสียงคำเฉพาะที่เกี่ยวข้องกับการลงทุนและเศรษฐศาสตร์ การฟังและทำตามการออกเสียงในวิดีโอจะช่วยให้คุณเข้าใจจังหวะและทำนองการพูดที่ถูกต้อง การทำชาโดว์อิ้งภาษาอังกฤษจากคลิปนี้จะทำให้คุณสามารถเลียนแบบการพูดได้อย่างใกล้เคียงและเป็นธรรมชาติ ซึ่งจะช่วยปรับปรุงความสามารถในการสื่อสารของคุณอย่างรวดเร็ว
หากคุณต้องการพัฒนาทักษะการพูดและการออกเสียงภาษาอังกฤษให้ดียิ่งขึ้น ลองนำแนวทางจากวิดีโอนี้ไปใช้ในการฝึกซ้อมร่วมกับการฝึก “ชาโดว์สปีคส์” ซึ่งเป็นเทคนิคที่มีประสิทธิภาพในการเรียนรู้ภาษาอังกฤษจากยูทูป
ไวยากรณ์ในวิดีโอนี้
โครงสร้างที่ผู้พูดใช้บ่อยที่สุด พร้อมคำพูดจริงจากวิดีโอ:
| โครงสร้าง | ในวิดีโอ |
|---|---|
| Present perfect have/has + กริยาช่อง 3 — เหตุการณ์ในอดีตที่ยังเกี่ยวข้องกับปัจจุบัน | has been · we've probably seen · have remained |
| Passive voice be + กริยาช่อง 3 — เน้นสิ่งที่เกิดขึ้น ไม่ใช่ผู้กระทำ | is stretched · is given · being said |
เทคนิค Shadowing คืออะไร?
Shadowing เป็นเทคนิคการเรียนรู้ภาษาที่ได้รับการรับรองทางวิทยาศาสตร์ พัฒนาขึ้นสำหรับการฝึกนักแปลมืออาชีพ วิธีการนี้เรียบง่ายแต่ทรงพลัง: คุณฟังเสียงภาษาอังกฤษจากเจ้าของภาษาและพูดตามทันที — เหมือนเงาที่ตามผู้พูดด้วยช่วงเวลาห่าง 1-2 วินาที การวิจัยแสดงว่าเทคนิคนี้ปรับปรุงความแม่นยำในการออกเสียง ทำนองเสียง จังหวะ การเชื่อมเสียง การฟังเข้าใจ และความคล่องแคล่วในการพูดได้อย่างมีนัยสำคัญ