تدريب Shadowing: I was SO wrong about quantum computing. - تعلم التحدث بالإنجليزية عبر الفيديو
جارٍ إنشاء الدرس...
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I was officially wrong about quantum computers, and I don't understand what's going on anymore.
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Two years ago, I said quantum computing hype will falter in 2024.
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What's happened instead is exactly the opposite.
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I have a nagging feeling there's something going on that we don't know about.
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Today I want to explain why I'm so pessimistic about quantum computing and what's happening against all reason.
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Quantum computers have been praised as the next big thing in computing,
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new technology that could vastly speed up certain types of computations by exploiting the peculiar logic of quantum physics.
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This sounds great, and it is.
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Greater still, there are now multiple companies which say they're ready to mass -produce quantum computers.
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The newest arrival is the UK company Quantum Motion,
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which says they have the first four -stack quantum computer that's scalable technology with the ability to be mass -produced.
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By this, they mean that they have the hardware with a software package and a user interface.
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They work with superconducting circuits and say they can scale this to a million qubits,
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which is a rough estimate for when quantum computers are expected to become commercially relevant.
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This sounds super impressive, doesn't it?
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They are the first to claim they can move to mass production of quantum computers.
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The company SciQuantum, which works with photons as qubits, said already last year they are building a factory.
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The Chinese are building a factory for quantum computers too.
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And the Japanese company Fujitsu just announced out of the blue that they can build a quantum computer with 250 logical qubits.
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Well, the marketing departments have definitely achieved quantum advantage.
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But there is a little problem with these reports.
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It's that the press releases don't agree with reality.
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The best understood and studied approach today to quantum computing is and remains superconducting circuits.
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Those are what IBM, Google, Amazon and many others work with.
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The manipulation and readout of these qubits can now be done with excellent precision and low error.
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We've seen demonstrations of this up to roughly 100 qubits or so.
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The problem becomes apparent if you look at those quantum computers.
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These chandelier -like things are the cooling system and the noise buffer.
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These qubits work at temperatures of some millikelvin.
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And the problem is now that you can't put arbitrarily many qubits in one cooling device.
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It's not so much the size that's the difficulty.
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It's not the more qubits you have that you need to manipulate, the more heat that'll produce.
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This is an issue no one likes to really talk about, so I don't have exact numbers.
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But by my rough estimate, somewhere at around 1000 qubits or so, you have a problem.
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This is almost certainly why IBM announced a few years back they'll be building the world's largest super fridge.
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But we haven't heard anything of this since.
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To scale up these devices, therefore, they must connect multiple cooling systems and that'll explode the error rate.
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So the problem is not mass producing the qubits or the devices.
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The problem is to mass -produce devices that actually work.
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These headlines are just crazy.
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It's like saying, hey, we can mass -produce spaceships.
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It's just that they don't f*ing fly.
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The company PsyQuantum works with photons, but from them, we basically haven't seen any documentation of what they can do.
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Do they have some secret recipe that'll make it work?
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Maybe.
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You see, this is the problem here.
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It's very well possible that there is something going on here that isn't in the public domain.
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And now look at this paper.
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These are the stocks of publicly traded quantum computing companies, INQ, Rigetti, D -Wave.
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They all made the most amazing gains in the past months.
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BlackRock even wants to offer a quantum computing EFT now. But why?
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The US government announced they'll invest into quantum tech so did JP Morgan, and that certainly contributed to some optimism.
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But other than that, we've just seen nonsense claims,
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like this headline from IBM that they can now do quantum -enabled algorithmic trading.
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As usual with these headlines, the quantum part isn't actually necessary, it just makes things more difficult.
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The computer scientist Scott Aronson put it like this, to critique this paper as not quite shooting fish in a barrel
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because the fish are already dead before we've reached the end of the abstract.
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There's headlines like this basically every week.
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Quantum computers help train scheduling.
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Quantum computers make home screener.
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Quantum computers discover proteins.
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Quantum computers evidently can do everything except produce money because none of these companies is even remotely profitable.
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It is possible that there's been some technological breakthrough that's highly confidential, which explains all this.
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The other possible explanation is that the excitement is driven by government investment, especially by the US military,
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which is very concerned the Chinese will beat them.
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And this bubble is also almost certainly driven by scientists who do nothing to clear up all the misconceptions
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that people have about quantum computers.
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So the bad news is that quantum computing hype is not anywhere close to faltering,
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the good news is I still have a job calling it out.
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Yes, I do read a lot of news and know that chatbots still aren't any good at writing my scripts.
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But what does help me a lot is Ground News.
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Ground News is a news platform that collects and summarizes news which has been published all over the world.
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Not only do they collect all articles on the same story in one place and give you a quick summary.
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They also give you a lot of extra information that you don't find in the standard media.
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A peculiar example I saw the other day is this story about how North America was once busily populated by dinosaurs.
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This basically wasn't covered on the political right.
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This tells you a lot about echo chambers, doesn't it?
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Ground News also gives you a factality rating for each news item, tells you who owns the media outlets
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and shows you where the news has appeared ground news also
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has this great feature called blind spot this tells you
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which news has been almost exclusively covered only by one side of the political spectrum
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and of course i have a special offer for you that's a 40 discount on the vantage plan
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which gives you access to all their features all you need to do is use my link ground .news sabine
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or use the qr code so go and check this out.
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