Shadowing Practice: Why Bonds Are Back On Investors’ Radar - Learn English Speaking with Video
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63 משפטים
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The yield on the 10 -year U .S.
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Treasury recently climbed above 5%, its highest level in more than two decades.
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This is basically the most important single number in finance.
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Global fund managers say a disorderly rise in bond yields is the biggest perceived tail risk to markets, even ahead of concerns about an AI bubble.
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5 % doesn't mean anything in and of itself, but it's a psychologically important number for a lot of people in the markets.
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And when it gets this high this fast, it makes people worried that something is going wrong in the economy
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or that it could mean that the stock market is about to crash.
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So then what's pushing yields higher?
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And where are some investors starting to see an opportunity?
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When a government issues a fixed rate
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Treasury note or bond, it promises set interest payments.
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But the bonds yield, essentially the market rate of return investors can earn, changes as the price moves.
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Think of bond prices and yields like a seesaw.
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When a bond's price falls, its yield rises.
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For example, let's say an investor pays $100 for a bond that pays $5 a year.
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Later, that investor sells the same bond to someone else for $90.
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The new buyer still receives the same $5 payment each year.
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But $5 is a bigger return on a $90 purchase than a $100 one.
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That's why the yield rises.
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But there's nothing really new under the sign.
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We've had high treasury yields before.
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You know, back in the 1990s and before, it was very common for the 10 -year to get above 6%.
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What's changed now is that
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Americans really got used to low interest rates for a long time.
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After the financial crisis, the Federal Reserve kept interest rates low, and that set a floor under interest rates across the economy.
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So that persisted really for about 15 years, and we've, in a sense, just kind of come back to what was normal for the economy.
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There are a couple of things that have gone into the rise in long term government bond yields.
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One is the expectation
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that the Federal Reserve has sort of moved into a new
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regime where it's likely to keep interest rates a little bit higher to combat inflation than it had in the past.
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When investors expect interest rates to remain high,
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older bonds issued back when rates were lower become less attractive when compared to newer bonds that offer higher returns.
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So those older bonds have to sell for less to attract buyers.
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And because their fixed interest payments stay the same, their yields rise.
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But there's a lot of other stuff going on.
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Investors are increasingly competing for capital.
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So you see the private sector has a huge demand for debt right now.
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All these AI companies are issuing hundreds of billions of dollars in new debt.
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And that is competing to some extent with government debt,
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which is also sort of flooding the market at the moment because the federal deficit is really high.
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And companies also borrow money from investors by issuing bonds, which are different than stocks.
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That gives investors another place to put their money, creating competition with U .S treasuries for buyers.
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You see private companies out there saying, you know, we are willing to accept higher interest payments because we think we've got really good investments.
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Higher treasury yields are also changing the choices investors face, particularly when it comes to stocks.
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This rise in long -term interest rates is a reality check for the markets.
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It's a moment when investors have to get their head around what exactly is happening here and why.
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For instance, you might look out and say, hey, I can get a very low risk return in the bond market.
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Why would I put my money in stocks?
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For now, this isn't happening.
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Investors are perfectly comfortable to keep investing in the stock market because they see AI companies and others potentially making huge returns.
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But that level can't stick around forever.
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Some major investors are starting to reconsider that trade -off.
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BlackRock upgraded its view of U .S.
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Treasuries in an October note, favoring shorter -term bonds while moving its position on U .S stocks to neutral.
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And nearly one in five global fund managers say U .S.
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Treasury yields are already high enough to prompt a shift from stocks to bonds.
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The largest group, 37%, would consider making that shift at 6%.
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For now, we haven't hit this level where high yields would crash the stock market.
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We'll get there at some point if yields keep going up because there is a point at which investors will say,
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I would like to get 5%, 6%, 7 % risk -free return without having any chance of losing my money.
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And they'll put their money in treasuries rather than in the stock market.
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But the stock market is for now so tempting in its potential future returns that investors haven't been particularly swayed by that.
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Thank you.
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Vocabulary and speaking notes for this lesson
This speaking lesson is built on the video “Why Bonds Are Back On Investors’ Radar”. The speaker keeps coming back to these words: investor, yield, bond, stock, rate. This video has 63 sentences and 826 words to shadow. The speech runs for 5:00. The speaker talks at a natural 165 words per minute, close to everyday conversation. 82% of the words are among the 3,000 most common in English; the rest is worth studying before you start.
Key vocabulary in this video
15 words from the video worth learning, with pronunciation and meaning:
| Word | Pronunciation | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| yield verb | /jiːld/ | To give as a result or outcome; to produce or render. |
| investor noun | /ɪnˈvɛs.tə(ɹ)/ | A person who invests money in order to make a profit. |
| treasury noun | /ˈtɹɛʒ.ɚ.i/ | A place where treasure is stored safely. |
| buyer noun | /ˈbaɪ.əɹ/ | A person who makes one or more purchases. |
| compete verb | /kəmˈpiːt/ | To be in battle or in a rivalry with another for the same thing, position, or reward; to contend. |
| earn verb | /ɝn/ | To gain (success, reward, recognition) through applied effort or work. |
| extent noun | /ɪkˈstɛnt/ | A range of values or locations. |
| compare verb | /kəmˈpɛɚ/ | To assess the similarities and differences between two or more things [“to compare X with Y”]. Having made the comparison of X with Y, one might have found it… |
| essentially adverb | /ɪˈsɛnʃəli/ | In essence: by nature. |
| potentially adverb | /pəˈtɛnʃ(ə)li/ | In a manner showing much potential; with the possibility of happening in a given way. |
| increasingly adverb | Increasing in amount or intensity. | |
| flood noun | /flʌd/ | An overflow of a large amount of water (usually disastrous) from a lake or other body of water due to excessive rainfall or other input of water. |
| tail noun | /ˈteɪ̯l/ | An object or part of an object resembling a tail in shape, such as the thongs on a cat-o'-nine-tails; a strand of material hanging from something. |
| invest verb | /ɪnˈvɛst/ | To spend money, time, or energy on something, especially for some benefit or purpose; used with in. |
| regime noun | /ɹəˈʒiːm/ | Mode of rule or management. |
Phrasal verbs you will hear
| Word | Meaning |
|---|---|
| go up verb | To move upwards. |
| look out verb | To be vigilant and aware often as an imperative to alert a person to danger. |
| stick around verb | To stay; to linger; to remain. |
Pronunciation to watch
The speaker uses 10 contractions and reduced forms, such as we've, haven't, can't. Say them the short way, as you hear them.
- The “sh” and “zh” sounds: treasury /ˈtɹɛʒ.ɚ.i/, essentially /ɪˈsɛnʃəli/, potentially /pəˈtɛnʃ(ə)li/, regime /ɹəˈʒiːm/, inflation /ɪnˈfleɪ.ʃən/
- Long words — get the stress right: essentially /ɪˈsɛnʃəli/, potentially /pəˈtɛnʃ(ə)li/, expectation /ˌɛk.spɛkˈteɪ.ʃən/, reconsider /ˈɹiːkənˌsɪdə/, disorderly /dɪsˈɔː.də.li/
How to practise with this video
- Listen to the whole video once without speaking and note the words you do not know.
- Start at 0.75× speed, shadow it sentence by sentence, then go back to normal speed once it feels easy.
- Record yourself and compare with the original, paying attention to words like yield, investor, treasury.
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