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Passing a prop firm challenge is basic math and

if you don't understand these five essential concepts no matter how good your strategy is you'll never get funded

but once you understand them your trading will change forever.

In this video I'll go over the full math of passing prop firms accounts in five parts.

The account, the edge, the size, the rules and the real return.

Let's start.

Now the first thing we really need to fix is how we see the account.

If you buy a $50 ,000 account it feels like you're trading 50 ,000

but it's not you're only trading the 2 ,000 the amount

that you're allowed to lose and we're gonna go over some futures

and some forex but we're gonna focus on one specific account 50 ,000 for this video

so 50 ,000 you think you're trading 50 ,000

but you're only trading the 2 ,000 that's the real drawdown

the same thing goes for a hundred thousand forex funded account

the room is 10 ,000 you're not allowed to lose the

full hundred thousand dollars you're only allowed to lose a ten thousand dollars

so that's the real account size and it's not the advertised one

so think about it this way the fifty thousand tells you the size of the product

but the two thousand tells you how many mistakes you can

survive now let's look at the account in the most simple way

and we only care about two things the pass

and the failure boundary

so we have two lines that's exactly how we can simplify passing funded accounts

and it's all about the same thing here

so you're starting here your job is simply to touch the

plus three thousand dollars before the minus two thousand dollars that's all

so you need to simply first touch this boundary before this one

and this way you're succeeding in prop firms

and that's why prop firms are sometimes harder than personal accounts

because you touch this before this you did not do anything you actually lost the account

and this also mean you need to make one

and a half dollars for every one dollar the rules allow you to lose

and in the other case in forex you need to make a dollar for every dollar you could lose

so here we have a 1 .5 to 1 reward to risk

and here the whole account has this reward to risk ratio

and these numbers could be different for different problems and different accounts

so before you take a trade the challenge already has a reward to risk ratio

and the strategy has to fit inside

and that's simply what passing a funded account is now whenever

we talk about a chance of passing in the next sections it all goes back to one thing

which is reaching the profit target before the max drawdown limit

using the futures 50k account now we need to understand

that there are multiple types of funded accounts

but two popular ones are the futures type

and the forex cfd for example ftmo style

so for futures you have a 50 000 you only need to reach a three thousand

which is six percent profit and then four percent drawdown

but in forex it's more of a one -to -one

so this is 1 .5 to one in forex is one -to -one

but we have two phases instead of one

and we also have daily loss limit in some of the futures one you don't have

but a big difference here is also the drawdown type

and this is something that we're going to go over a lot of details on

which is the trailing drawdown instead of static or sometimes trailing

so simply one account has less room

but one phase the other one has more room for you to pass maybe an easier reward to risk

but ask you to pass twice so you need to understand both of these

and then pick the one that fits you fits your trading style

and what you prefer to trade for me my main thing is trading forex

so that's why i prefer to go with these however we're

going to explain everything now this is where it gets interesting imagine two traders take the exact same 10 trades

so here we have 10 and 10 trades

and they both have the same six winners

and same four losers the first trade receives the winners earlier

and then gets to the path zone

but the other one takes his loser first reaching this fail level

and then getting the six winners this guy passed the account this one did not

and failed the account even though they all have at the end the same number of winners

and the same number of losers but the difference is

that this guy passed his account the other guy did not

and this is what i called variance

so i've explained this in my the math of trading video the link is in the description

and this proves to you that you could have the same traits same strategy

but because you're trading a prop firm with specific rules

and you have only two boundaries there is randomness in here

and you could reach one before the other with the same win rate strategy

and that takes us directly to the edge

so the order of the trade matters a lot now let's talk about edge

and the passing probability or the system is about four things

so we're going to cover the win rate the payoff shape the position size

and the rule set now the most important formula

and it's the one that tells you if you have an edge

or not is expectancy or expected value and it goes like this win rate times the average win

minus the loss rate times the average loss

so we're simply looking at two things in here one rate

and the reward risk or the average winner and the loss rate

and the average loss the time you have all of these data you can put the numbers here

and the result that you have if it's positive

that means over a large sample of trades you'll be making money

if it's minus then no matter what you do you'll be losing at the end

so if you have some data already then make sure to substitute you these with your data

and see if you're gonna make money on the long term

and we already understand from the previous formula

that win rate itself is not enough it tells you almost

nothing at one to one reward to risk you need 50

percent win rate to actually break even at two to one you need 33

or you know the bigger the reward to risk you need less win rate to break even

so three to one you need only 25 percent of trades

so if you have 10 trades and you lose seven of them

100

and you get only three winners with a three to one

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you're actually making money now looking at one to one

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if you take 10 trades and five winners

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and five losers then you're back to break even you're actually making no money

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so a low win rate can work

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when the average win is large enough it's always about the combination of win rate

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and reward risk so

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if we just look at the variance a high win rate

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would have a low variance a medium let's say 55 % win rate has a medium variance

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and then a 35 % win rate with a bigger average win has higher variance

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and notice how all of these are actually profitable strategies even though the win rate is different

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so remember the win rate itself is nothing and

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if we look at the equity curve notice how the low variance has a smooth equity curve

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and you're making money in a smooth way

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and then this one is balanced so it goes up

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and down but the volatile one actually goes up

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and down a bit more aggressive compared to the smooth

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and balanced so this is how variance actually appears

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so you'll be having you know making a lot of money aggressively

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and then you'll go into some losing streaks

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and then making money on the other hand in a smooth one you're basically making one to one

121

and then losing one make it one losing one just like this

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if you zoom out you'll see this one just going up like this okay

123

so that is the main difference now this visual takes the same strategy

124

and runs it many times so it's a 55 % win rate model

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but it runs it with different orders of wins

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and losses some lines goes up almost immediately

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so it's starting to go up and some goes down first

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and then maybe recover after

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and there are a lot of different orders of trades all of them came from the same basic numbers

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and that proves you

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that one beautiful back disk is only one possible order you should ask a harder question

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if the same wins and losses come in a worse order would the account still survive

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and this is what we need to actually understand

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and focus on the risk section because you could have a profitable one

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but then you would not have enough time for price to reach the upper boundary before reaching the lower one

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because of the different order so if

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that answer to the question is no then the problem may be the size

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and it's not the setup itself now if we look at this

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and this is the passing probability or failing probability for the three setups

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that we discussed the a b and c

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and this one is for futures for forex with the different risk size it's going to be much different

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but we're talking about futures in this case it will be applied to forex

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but in a slightly different way

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so we can see why strategies with the same average edge

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or expected value or expectancy can have different chances of passing

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and in this example strategy a passes 68 percent of the time strategy b passed 57

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and c passed 42 percent of the times

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but why does strategy c pass less because it wins less often

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and depends on bigger wins because of the high reward risk

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and if those bigger wins arrive late the account may hit the loss limit first

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so think about it this way if we actually start with the losers first

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and hit the lower boundary and then get the winners then you're losing the account

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but then if the winners comes first you're probably going to pass the account even faster than a

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and b but the probability we're talking about the probability in this case

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so what we need to understand is

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that a strategy can be profitable over time

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and still be poor match for a tight challenge

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so in a personal account the question becomes can this make money

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but then in prop firms it's a much different question it's can it reach the target before the loss limit

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or the maximum drawdown that's the question

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so very different questions for both of these account types now

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let's look at the chance of losing several trades in a

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row now the formula is here it's one minus one rate raised to the number of losses

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so at 45 percent win rate the chance of four losses in

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that exact four trade group is about 9 .2 percent at 55 it falls to 4 .1 percent

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and then at 65 it's actually 1 .5 percent so it's clear

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that the lower run rate we have then the probability of having four consecutive losses is higher

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so the risk here is very important

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because it allows you to have these consecutive losses

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and then comes back instead of just reaching the lower boundary

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and then losing the account and that explains the high variance

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and low variance so notice how high variance goes up aggressively

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so before this going up we might actually see price going down first

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and hitting the max drawdown and this what actually happens in some of these different orders

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because we're testing different orders of the you know the order of the trades the winners

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and losers so it could go like this first

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and it could go first here it's going to go only here

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so we need to understand low variance and high variance

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and adjust the risk based on it now

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if what you actually need is a strategy what

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if your full plan is just a week now this week

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here is going to give you the direction the entry stop loss

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and actually everything you need just based on one week

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and it's a high reward risk setup and the edge model is universal meaning

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that it works in most pairs and most time frames so

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if you think this is right for you

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and what you actually need make sure to check out each

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school these are some results of the people inside the community

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and these are some of the classes let's continue now let's talk about risk

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and the main goal here is to actually survive

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because survival is passing the account

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and what i mean is we're not trying to go extremely to the left

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or extremely to the right we're not going too small

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that you never reach the target in time you'll just go up

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and down and up and down

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and you'll spend years just trying to pass the account

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because you're too afraid and you're having a smaller risk per trade

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but we're also not going too big

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that one streak breaches the draw down with a larger risk

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per trade now we are trying to aim here in a survival one

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that can also pass not too big

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and not too small now this one shows you the win rate

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and the risk per trade and then the pass probability of each based on the risk

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and these are the colors

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so the darker it gets then you're more likely to pass the account

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and we're always trying to be in the middle here you're losing

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and here it's not something realistic

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so we're not trying to go here we're trying to be

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in the middle in the sweet spot now notice how as

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we go lower we're actually increasing the risk per trade

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and notice how at four percent with a 40 percent one rate three percent probability of passing the account

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and notice how 10 percent 20 percent so you're almost not passing

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and then as you lower the risk so you go one percent

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or half percent

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and then you're going to get a good win rate for

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example a 50 % win rate then you could pass the account

217

so you have 41 % of passing the account

218

and this is about the variance and about the order of the trades

219

so we're basically looking at how many times based on this

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win rate based on the order of the trades you could pass

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because if you risk four percent anytime

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that one is a loser then you're failing the account

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so even if you have a 90 % win rate

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and risking four percent then only 56 % of the time

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or 56 % probability of passing the account you have that's it

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but even lower than that 70 % you're not passing you're not passing you're not passing

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so this simply tells you

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that you need to pick the right risk per trade for your win rate so

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if you have a 50 % win rate then what makes

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you passing you know you always need to look for here 0 .5 %

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or 0 .25 % to actually have a probability of passing

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but then 60 % yeah 65 you don't need to go 4 %

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because you will 90 % of the time lose the account

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and now this one shows you the relationship between risk per trade

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so we have 0 .25 % 0 .75

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and here are the number of trades to a boundary

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so either pass or fail

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and notice how we're dealing with a 55 % win rate with a one -to -one

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and now notice how at for example 0 .75 it's going

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to take less than 50 trades for example to actually reach a pass

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or fail and then it gets lower and no it gets lower

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and lower the number of trades to actually reach a pass or fail

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so for example more than 1 .75 you actually need almost

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no trades maybe a few trades in order to either pass That's what it feels.

245

So it gets tighter and tighter the more you risk even though you have a profitable strategy

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which is a 55 % win rate and a one -to -one

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but you could still lose the account because you're not allowing the edge to actually show up.

248

So this table explains everything in details in case you wanted to understand it more with numbers and calculations.

249

Now this is one of the most important sections of this video.

250

At the bottom we have a win rate from 40 to 60%.

251

So this is the win rate

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and on the left we have the reward to risk from three to one

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so here it's one to one and then here it's a three to one

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and then we have the risk here

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so each of these data looks at risk of 0 .5 percent one percent

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and two percent and each number inside of here is actually the model chance of passing

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and then we repeat the same table for half percent one percent

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and two percent so let's take for example 50 %

259

and 1 to 1 so just right here we can see

260

that the number is 40 in all of these

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so the probability of passing is the same for all of

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these different risk this is break -even strategy before cost size cannot create an edge now take 60 %

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when wait with a 3 to 1 and we can see 100

264

but as we go higher and risk we can see

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that it goes lower 95 % and 79 %

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so the strategy is strong

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but too much size gives a bad group enough power to

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fail the account it's based on the order of the trades the winners and losers

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which one comes first at 40 % win rate with a

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one to one here the number goes from one to seven to nineteen

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that means the strategy is still a losing one it's still negative

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but a lucky group simply reaches the target faster

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because here we're risking two percent we could actually pass

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or fail faster than with the low risk

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because sometimes it can get lucky based on the order

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so never confuse a chance of passing with a profitable system

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these are two completely different things that's actually the sweet spot

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i want you to focus on not a very high reward risk

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and a low win rate and not a very high win rate

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and low reward risk you could actually this depends on you

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but this is the realistic sweet spot

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but this shows you for passing a 50 000 future account

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what do you need to actually focus on it shows you the probability of passing for the reward risk

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and the win rate and the sweet spot now let's talk about the rules

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because we have different ones

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and we're going to take them one by one we have daily loss maximum drawdown distribution consistency

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and all of these different things and there are multiple layers for every system

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that when you add one layer then the probability of passing actually changes

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and there are a lot of details we're going to go

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over now we need to understand how the loss limit works

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and in this case we have a static limit now this one stays in the same place

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so we have four percent and

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that is fixed as you go higher it's a four percent

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if the fail level starts at minus four percent it remains there even

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when the account makes money so you make more money

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but the static drawdown stays here

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so you need to go all the way back here to lose the account

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and you'll see the difference between this

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and the other ones we have in other firms

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and account types we have a moving limit or a trailing limit

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or trailing drawdown and this one moves upward when the account makes money

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so you make money here this one goes up with you

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now depends on the timings they're actually different types of moving

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limits depending on the time now the difference between static is

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that this one stays here the trailing goes up as you go higher

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so you make money then the trailing goes higher

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and we're going to explain now the timings of these

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and the types of the trailing ones there are actually two popular ones we have the intraday

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and the end of the day now the intraday updates at your highest equity

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or highest balance so

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if you reach for example here 2k then the drawdown goes higher highest high in this case

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and then as you break the high it updates at the next high

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so this is your highest balance maybe 4k this one goes higher now

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and it trails by the highest balance

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or equity you're having the end of the day is different

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in this case let's say the highest balance you have at the end of the day is 2k

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and then the next day starts you go lower

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and then you go lower where's your balance at the end

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of the day it's right here this becomes the number

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and in this case this is number even if it's not the highest

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or the lowest so for example

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if it's a four percent then it's going to be four percent of this specific balance

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that you close the day with

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and it's the same thing it's going to go four percent from this amount

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that you were having

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and also the same thing here it updates at the end of the day

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so this one is a bit more forgiving than this one

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the intraday is more aggressive now let's look at the layers of the rules

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and the paths of passing the account

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so let's say the strategy itself has a positive expectancy

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and you will be passing because you have a positive expectancy allowing the time without any strict rules

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you'd be passing the account 100 % of the time.

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But then what happens is that you have a max drawdown

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and then the probability of passing goes lower

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and then you have a daily loss and then the probability goes lower

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because there is a new boundary or a new strict rule

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that does not allow you or does not allow the setup that you're having, the strategy that you're having to pass the account.

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And then we have the trailing drawdown and it goes much lower.

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And then you have other rules like consistency rule

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and then the probability goes lower

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so that's why a personal account is different than a funded account also a strategy

342

that you are making money based on on a personal account might not work on a funded account

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or it might work sometime and not in others

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because in a real account you would be making money you'd be losing money

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and then you could come back

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but in a funded account you're making money maybe you did not pass

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or you did not get to maybe here for percent in

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a funded account in a futures account you'd be passing the account

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but then going lower you'd lose it in a personal account

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you would go here you would lose all of this

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and you could still come back

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but in a funded account you already lost the account now let's look at the returns

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and this example begins with 100 challenge purchased 86 fail before funding 14 reach the funded phase

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and then eight of those funded accounts never reach a payout only six got a payout the number

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that matters financially is how many purchases become money received six out of 100 here

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and now let's attach money to it

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so let's say a 100 challenge with 150 dollars each for the fee

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that is a fifteen thousand dollars and six payout pay two thousand dollars each

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that is twelve thousand dollars and

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when we go twelve thousand minus 15 we have a minus

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that gives us a negative three thousand dollars

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so even with six payouts the group lost three thousand dollars

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or thirty dollars per challenge purchased the payout screenshots do not

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show whether the full process made money we need the cost of reaching them

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so do not be happy with just one payout calculate the cost of all the account purchased

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and the fees of them and then compare it to the payout

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that you're getting and you realize

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that a lot of people are actually losing money even

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when getting a payout and now we can connect everything

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so we have the win rate and the average win

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and loss creates the edge

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and then the position size decide how strongly each trade moves the account

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and then the rules decide

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which trade orders continue together they create the chance of reaching funded

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and then the payout rules decide how many funded accounts pay

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payouts minus every fee gives us the real return the full

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question is does my strategy trade it at this size inside these rules produce enough payouts to cover every attempt

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and leave money after it

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that is the math of prop firms that's it for this

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video i hope you enjoyed it make sure to check out each school my community

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if you want to trade with me

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and learn my setup my one week setup that's it and i will see you next one

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Vocabolario e note di pronuncia per questa lezione

Questa lezione di conversazione si basa sul video “The Math of Winning in Prop Firms”. Le parole che ritornano più spesso: account, rate, risk, percent, trade. Questo video contiene 382 frasi e 4312 parole da ripetere con lo shadowing. Il parlato dura 22:53. Chi parla va veloce, circa 188 parole al minuto: aspettati suoni legati e ridotti. Il 89% delle parole rientra nelle 3.000 più comuni dell’inglese, quindi il lessico è facile da seguire.

Vocaboli chiave di questo video

15 parole del video che vale la pena imparare, con pronuncia e significato:

Parola	Pronuncia	Significato
probability sostantivo	/ˌpɹɑ.bəˈbɪl.ə.ti/	probabilità
reward sostantivo	/ɹɪˈwɔɹd/	ricompensa
trail sostantivo	/tɹeɪl/	strascico, traccia
boundary sostantivo	/ˈbaʊndɹi/	confine, limite
loser sostantivo	/luzɚ/	perdente
minus	/ˈmaɪ.nəs/	meno
prop sostantivo	/pɹɑp/	sostegno, puntello
profitable aggettivo	/ˈpɹɑ.fɪ.tə.bl̩/	redditizio, fruttifero
smooth aggettivo	/smuːð/	facile, dolce
equity sostantivo	/ˈɛk.wɪ.ti/	equità, parità
depend verbo	/dɪˈpɛnd/	dipendere
mathematics sostantivo	/mæθ(.ə)ˈmæt.ɪks/	matematica
static aggettivo	/ˈstæt.ɪk/	statico
formula sostantivo	/ˈfɔː.mjʊ.lə/	formula
layer sostantivo	/ˈleɪ̯ɚ/	strato

I phrasal verb che sentirai

Parola	Significato
go up verbo	salire
come back verbo	tornare
check out verbo	investigare

La grammatica di questo video

Le strutture che chi parla usa di più, con le parole esatte del video:

Struttura	Nel video
Frasi condizionali if + frase, will/would + verbo — una condizione e il suo risultato	if you zoom out you'll see
Forma passiva be + participio passato — conta ciò che accade, non chi lo fa	is balanced · will be applied · is fixed

Pronuncia a cui fare attenzione

Chi parla usa 78 contrazioni e forme ridotte, come you're, we're, you'll. Pronunciale nella forma breve, così come le senti.

I suoni “th”: smooth /smuːð/, mathematics /mæθ(.ə)ˈmæt.ɪks/, thirty /ˈθɝti/
I suoni “sh” e “zh”: ratio /ˈɹeɪ.ʃoʊ/, calculation /ˌkælkjuˈleɪʃn̩/, screenshot /ˈskriːn.ʃɑt/
Parole lunghe — attenzione all’accento: probability /ˌpɹɑ.bəˈbɪl.ə.ti/, mathematics /mæθ(.ə)ˈmæt.ɪks/, consecutive /kənˈsɛkjʊtɪv/, consistency /kənˈsɪs.tən.si/, universal /ˌjunəˈvɜɹs(ə)l/

I suoni difficili per chi parla italiano:

Consonante finale — senza aggiungere una vocale dopo: reward /ɹɪˈwɔɹd/, forex /ˈfɔɹˌɛks/, minus /ˈmaɪ.nəs/, prop /pɹɑp/, depend /dɪˈpɛnd/
/æ/ — più aperta della “e”: mathematics /mæθ(.ə)ˈmæt.ɪks/, static /ˈstæt.ɪk/, calculate /ˈkælkjʊleɪt/, calculation /ˌkælkjuˈleɪʃn̩/, attach /əˈtæt͡ʃ/

Come esercitarsi con questo video

Ascolta tutto il video una volta senza parlare e annota le parole che non conosci.
Inizia a velocità 0,75×, fai shadowing frase per frase e torna alla velocità normale quando diventa facile.
Registrati e confronta con l’originale, facendo attenzione a parole come probability, reward, trail.

Cos'è la tecnica dello Shadowing?

Shadowing è una tecnica di apprendimento delle lingue supportata da studi scientifici, originariamente sviluppata per la formazione dei traduttori professionisti e resa popolare dal poliglotta Dr. Alexander Arguelles. Il metodo è semplice ma potente: ascolti un audio in inglese di madrelingua e lo ripeti immediatamente ad alta voce — come un'ombra che segue il parlante con un ritardo di solo 1–2 secondi. A differenza dell'ascolto passivo o degli esercizi di grammatica, lo shadowing costringe il tuo cervello e i muscoli della bocca a elaborare e riprodurre simultaneamente i modelli di discorso reale. La ricerca dimostra che migliora significativamente la precisione della pronuncia, l'intonazione, il ritmo, il discorso connesso, la comprensione dell'ascolto e la fluidità del parlato — rendendolo uno dei metodi più efficaci per la preparazione alla prova di speaking dell'IELTS e per la comunicazione reale in inglese.

Tecnica dello shadowing: leggi la guida completa passo dopo passo →

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