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Passing a prop firm challenge is basic math and

if you don't understand these five essential concepts no matter how good your strategy is you'll never get funded

but once you understand them your trading will change forever.

In this video I'll go over the full math of passing prop firms accounts in five parts.

The account, the edge, the size, the rules and the real return.

Let's start.

Now the first thing we really need to fix is how we see the account.

If you buy a $50 ,000 account it feels like you're trading 50 ,000

but it's not you're only trading the 2 ,000 the amount

that you're allowed to lose and we're gonna go over some futures

and some forex but we're gonna focus on one specific account 50 ,000 for this video

so 50 ,000 you think you're trading 50 ,000

but you're only trading the 2 ,000 that's the real drawdown

the same thing goes for a hundred thousand forex funded account

the room is 10 ,000 you're not allowed to lose the

full hundred thousand dollars you're only allowed to lose a ten thousand dollars

so that's the real account size and it's not the advertised one

so think about it this way the fifty thousand tells you the size of the product

but the two thousand tells you how many mistakes you can

survive now let's look at the account in the most simple way

and we only care about two things the pass

and the failure boundary

so we have two lines that's exactly how we can simplify passing funded accounts

and it's all about the same thing here

so you're starting here your job is simply to touch the

plus three thousand dollars before the minus two thousand dollars that's all

so you need to simply first touch this boundary before this one

and this way you're succeeding in prop firms

and that's why prop firms are sometimes harder than personal accounts

because you touch this before this you did not do anything you actually lost the account

and this also mean you need to make one

and a half dollars for every one dollar the rules allow you to lose

and in the other case in forex you need to make a dollar for every dollar you could lose

so here we have a 1 .5 to 1 reward to risk

and here the whole account has this reward to risk ratio

and these numbers could be different for different problems and different accounts

so before you take a trade the challenge already has a reward to risk ratio

and the strategy has to fit inside

and that's simply what passing a funded account is now whenever

we talk about a chance of passing in the next sections it all goes back to one thing

which is reaching the profit target before the max drawdown limit

using the futures 50k account now we need to understand

that there are multiple types of funded accounts

but two popular ones are the futures type

and the forex cfd for example ftmo style

so for futures you have a 50 000 you only need to reach a three thousand

which is six percent profit and then four percent drawdown

but in forex it's more of a one -to -one

so this is 1 .5 to one in forex is one -to -one

but we have two phases instead of one

and we also have daily loss limit in some of the futures one you don't have

but a big difference here is also the drawdown type

and this is something that we're going to go over a lot of details on

which is the trailing drawdown instead of static or sometimes trailing

so simply one account has less room

but one phase the other one has more room for you to pass maybe an easier reward to risk

but ask you to pass twice so you need to understand both of these

and then pick the one that fits you fits your trading style

and what you prefer to trade for me my main thing is trading forex

so that's why i prefer to go with these however we're

going to explain everything now this is where it gets interesting imagine two traders take the exact same 10 trades

so here we have 10 and 10 trades

and they both have the same six winners

and same four losers the first trade receives the winners earlier

and then gets to the path zone

but the other one takes his loser first reaching this fail level

and then getting the six winners this guy passed the account this one did not

and failed the account even though they all have at the end the same number of winners

and the same number of losers but the difference is

that this guy passed his account the other guy did not

and this is what i called variance

so i've explained this in my the math of trading video the link is in the description

and this proves to you that you could have the same traits same strategy

but because you're trading a prop firm with specific rules

and you have only two boundaries there is randomness in here

and you could reach one before the other with the same win rate strategy

and that takes us directly to the edge

so the order of the trade matters a lot now let's talk about edge

and the passing probability or the system is about four things

so we're going to cover the win rate the payoff shape the position size

and the rule set now the most important formula

and it's the one that tells you if you have an edge

or not is expectancy or expected value and it goes like this win rate times the average win

minus the loss rate times the average loss

so we're simply looking at two things in here one rate

and the reward risk or the average winner and the loss rate

and the average loss the time you have all of these data you can put the numbers here

and the result that you have if it's positive

that means over a large sample of trades you'll be making money

if it's minus then no matter what you do you'll be losing at the end

so if you have some data already then make sure to substitute you these with your data

and see if you're gonna make money on the long term

and we already understand from the previous formula

that win rate itself is not enough it tells you almost

nothing at one to one reward to risk you need 50

percent win rate to actually break even at two to one you need 33

or you know the bigger the reward to risk you need less win rate to break even

so three to one you need only 25 percent of trades

so if you have 10 trades and you lose seven of them

100

and you get only three winners with a three to one

101

you're actually making money now looking at one to one

102

if you take 10 trades and five winners

103

and five losers then you're back to break even you're actually making no money

104

so a low win rate can work

105

when the average win is large enough it's always about the combination of win rate

106

and reward risk so

107

if we just look at the variance a high win rate

108

would have a low variance a medium let's say 55 % win rate has a medium variance

109

and then a 35 % win rate with a bigger average win has higher variance

110

and notice how all of these are actually profitable strategies even though the win rate is different

111

so remember the win rate itself is nothing and

112

if we look at the equity curve notice how the low variance has a smooth equity curve

113

and you're making money in a smooth way

114

and then this one is balanced so it goes up

115

and down but the volatile one actually goes up

116

and down a bit more aggressive compared to the smooth

117

and balanced so this is how variance actually appears

118

so you'll be having you know making a lot of money aggressively

119

and then you'll go into some losing streaks

120

and then making money on the other hand in a smooth one you're basically making one to one

121

and then losing one make it one losing one just like this

122

if you zoom out you'll see this one just going up like this okay

123

so that is the main difference now this visual takes the same strategy

124

and runs it many times so it's a 55 % win rate model

125

but it runs it with different orders of wins

126

and losses some lines goes up almost immediately

127

so it's starting to go up and some goes down first

128

and then maybe recover after

129

and there are a lot of different orders of trades all of them came from the same basic numbers

130

and that proves you

131

that one beautiful back disk is only one possible order you should ask a harder question

132

if the same wins and losses come in a worse order would the account still survive

133

and this is what we need to actually understand

134

and focus on the risk section because you could have a profitable one

135

but then you would not have enough time for price to reach the upper boundary before reaching the lower one

136

because of the different order so if

137

that answer to the question is no then the problem may be the size

138

and it's not the setup itself now if we look at this

139

and this is the passing probability or failing probability for the three setups

140

that we discussed the a b and c

141

and this one is for futures for forex with the different risk size it's going to be much different

142

but we're talking about futures in this case it will be applied to forex

143

but in a slightly different way

144

so we can see why strategies with the same average edge

145

or expected value or expectancy can have different chances of passing

146

and in this example strategy a passes 68 percent of the time strategy b passed 57

147

and c passed 42 percent of the times

148

but why does strategy c pass less because it wins less often

149

and depends on bigger wins because of the high reward risk

150

and if those bigger wins arrive late the account may hit the loss limit first

151

so think about it this way if we actually start with the losers first

152

and hit the lower boundary and then get the winners then you're losing the account

153

but then if the winners comes first you're probably going to pass the account even faster than a

154

and b but the probability we're talking about the probability in this case

155

so what we need to understand is

156

that a strategy can be profitable over time

157

and still be poor match for a tight challenge

158

so in a personal account the question becomes can this make money

159

but then in prop firms it's a much different question it's can it reach the target before the loss limit

160

or the maximum drawdown that's the question

161

so very different questions for both of these account types now

162

let's look at the chance of losing several trades in a

163

row now the formula is here it's one minus one rate raised to the number of losses

164

so at 45 percent win rate the chance of four losses in

165

that exact four trade group is about 9 .2 percent at 55 it falls to 4 .1 percent

166

and then at 65 it's actually 1 .5 percent so it's clear

167

that the lower run rate we have then the probability of having four consecutive losses is higher

168

so the risk here is very important

169

because it allows you to have these consecutive losses

170

and then comes back instead of just reaching the lower boundary

171

and then losing the account and that explains the high variance

172

and low variance so notice how high variance goes up aggressively

173

so before this going up we might actually see price going down first

174

and hitting the max drawdown and this what actually happens in some of these different orders

175

because we're testing different orders of the you know the order of the trades the winners

176

and losers so it could go like this first

177

and it could go first here it's going to go only here

178

so we need to understand low variance and high variance

179

and adjust the risk based on it now

180

if what you actually need is a strategy what

181

if your full plan is just a week now this week

182

here is going to give you the direction the entry stop loss

183

and actually everything you need just based on one week

184

and it's a high reward risk setup and the edge model is universal meaning

185

that it works in most pairs and most time frames so

186

if you think this is right for you

187

and what you actually need make sure to check out each

188

school these are some results of the people inside the community

189

and these are some of the classes let's continue now let's talk about risk

190

and the main goal here is to actually survive

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because survival is passing the account

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and what i mean is we're not trying to go extremely to the left

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or extremely to the right we're not going too small

194

that you never reach the target in time you'll just go up

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and down and up and down

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and you'll spend years just trying to pass the account

197

because you're too afraid and you're having a smaller risk per trade

198

but we're also not going too big

199

that one streak breaches the draw down with a larger risk

200

per trade now we are trying to aim here in a survival one

201

that can also pass not too big

202

and not too small now this one shows you the win rate

203

and the risk per trade and then the pass probability of each based on the risk

204

and these are the colors

205

so the darker it gets then you're more likely to pass the account

206

and we're always trying to be in the middle here you're losing

207

and here it's not something realistic

208

so we're not trying to go here we're trying to be

209

in the middle in the sweet spot now notice how as

210

we go lower we're actually increasing the risk per trade

211

and notice how at four percent with a 40 percent one rate three percent probability of passing the account

212

and notice how 10 percent 20 percent so you're almost not passing

213

and then as you lower the risk so you go one percent

214

or half percent

215

and then you're going to get a good win rate for

216

example a 50 % win rate then you could pass the account

217

so you have 41 % of passing the account

218

and this is about the variance and about the order of the trades

219

so we're basically looking at how many times based on this

220

win rate based on the order of the trades you could pass

221

because if you risk four percent anytime

222

that one is a loser then you're failing the account

223

so even if you have a 90 % win rate

224

and risking four percent then only 56 % of the time

225

or 56 % probability of passing the account you have that's it

226

but even lower than that 70 % you're not passing you're not passing you're not passing

227

so this simply tells you

228

that you need to pick the right risk per trade for your win rate so

229

if you have a 50 % win rate then what makes

230

you passing you know you always need to look for here 0 .5 %

231

or 0 .25 % to actually have a probability of passing

232

but then 60 % yeah 65 you don't need to go 4 %

233

because you will 90 % of the time lose the account

234

and now this one shows you the relationship between risk per trade

235

so we have 0 .25 % 0 .75

236

and here are the number of trades to a boundary

237

so either pass or fail

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and notice how we're dealing with a 55 % win rate with a one -to -one

239

and now notice how at for example 0 .75 it's going

240

to take less than 50 trades for example to actually reach a pass

241

or fail and then it gets lower and no it gets lower

242

and lower the number of trades to actually reach a pass or fail

243

so for example more than 1 .75 you actually need almost

244

no trades maybe a few trades in order to either pass That's what it feels.

245

So it gets tighter and tighter the more you risk even though you have a profitable strategy

246

which is a 55 % win rate and a one -to -one

247

but you could still lose the account because you're not allowing the edge to actually show up.

248

So this table explains everything in details in case you wanted to understand it more with numbers and calculations.

249

Now this is one of the most important sections of this video.

250

At the bottom we have a win rate from 40 to 60%.

251

So this is the win rate

252

and on the left we have the reward to risk from three to one

253

so here it's one to one and then here it's a three to one

254

and then we have the risk here

255

so each of these data looks at risk of 0 .5 percent one percent

256

and two percent and each number inside of here is actually the model chance of passing

257

and then we repeat the same table for half percent one percent

258

and two percent so let's take for example 50 %

259

and 1 to 1 so just right here we can see

260

that the number is 40 in all of these

261

so the probability of passing is the same for all of

262

these different risk this is break -even strategy before cost size cannot create an edge now take 60 %

263

when wait with a 3 to 1 and we can see 100

264

but as we go higher and risk we can see

265

that it goes lower 95 % and 79 %

266

so the strategy is strong

267

but too much size gives a bad group enough power to

268

fail the account it's based on the order of the trades the winners and losers

269

which one comes first at 40 % win rate with a

270

one to one here the number goes from one to seven to nineteen

271

that means the strategy is still a losing one it's still negative

272

but a lucky group simply reaches the target faster

273

because here we're risking two percent we could actually pass

274

or fail faster than with the low risk

275

because sometimes it can get lucky based on the order

276

so never confuse a chance of passing with a profitable system

277

these are two completely different things that's actually the sweet spot

278

i want you to focus on not a very high reward risk

279

and a low win rate and not a very high win rate

280

and low reward risk you could actually this depends on you

281

but this is the realistic sweet spot

282

but this shows you for passing a 50 000 future account

283

what do you need to actually focus on it shows you the probability of passing for the reward risk

284

and the win rate and the sweet spot now let's talk about the rules

285

because we have different ones

286

and we're going to take them one by one we have daily loss maximum drawdown distribution consistency

287

and all of these different things and there are multiple layers for every system

288

that when you add one layer then the probability of passing actually changes

289

and there are a lot of details we're going to go

290

over now we need to understand how the loss limit works

291

and in this case we have a static limit now this one stays in the same place

292

so we have four percent and

293

that is fixed as you go higher it's a four percent

294

if the fail level starts at minus four percent it remains there even

295

when the account makes money so you make more money

296

but the static drawdown stays here

297

so you need to go all the way back here to lose the account

298

and you'll see the difference between this

299

and the other ones we have in other firms

300

and account types we have a moving limit or a trailing limit

301

or trailing drawdown and this one moves upward when the account makes money

302

so you make money here this one goes up with you

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now depends on the timings they're actually different types of moving

304

limits depending on the time now the difference between static is

305

that this one stays here the trailing goes up as you go higher

306

so you make money then the trailing goes higher

307

and we're going to explain now the timings of these

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and the types of the trailing ones there are actually two popular ones we have the intraday

309

and the end of the day now the intraday updates at your highest equity

310

or highest balance so

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if you reach for example here 2k then the drawdown goes higher highest high in this case

312

and then as you break the high it updates at the next high

313

so this is your highest balance maybe 4k this one goes higher now

314

and it trails by the highest balance

315

or equity you're having the end of the day is different

316

in this case let's say the highest balance you have at the end of the day is 2k

317

and then the next day starts you go lower

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and then you go lower where's your balance at the end

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of the day it's right here this becomes the number

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and in this case this is number even if it's not the highest

321

or the lowest so for example

322

if it's a four percent then it's going to be four percent of this specific balance

323

that you close the day with

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and it's the same thing it's going to go four percent from this amount

325

that you were having

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and also the same thing here it updates at the end of the day

327

so this one is a bit more forgiving than this one

328

the intraday is more aggressive now let's look at the layers of the rules

329

and the paths of passing the account

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so let's say the strategy itself has a positive expectancy

331

and you will be passing because you have a positive expectancy allowing the time without any strict rules

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you'd be passing the account 100 % of the time.

333

But then what happens is that you have a max drawdown

334

and then the probability of passing goes lower

335

and then you have a daily loss and then the probability goes lower

336

because there is a new boundary or a new strict rule

337

that does not allow you or does not allow the setup that you're having, the strategy that you're having to pass the account.

338

And then we have the trailing drawdown and it goes much lower.

339

And then you have other rules like consistency rule

340

and then the probability goes lower

341

so that's why a personal account is different than a funded account also a strategy

342

that you are making money based on on a personal account might not work on a funded account

343

or it might work sometime and not in others

344

because in a real account you would be making money you'd be losing money

345

and then you could come back

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but in a funded account you're making money maybe you did not pass

347

or you did not get to maybe here for percent in

348

a funded account in a futures account you'd be passing the account

349

but then going lower you'd lose it in a personal account

350

you would go here you would lose all of this

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and you could still come back

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but in a funded account you already lost the account now let's look at the returns

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and this example begins with 100 challenge purchased 86 fail before funding 14 reach the funded phase

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and then eight of those funded accounts never reach a payout only six got a payout the number

355

that matters financially is how many purchases become money received six out of 100 here

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and now let's attach money to it

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so let's say a 100 challenge with 150 dollars each for the fee

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that is a fifteen thousand dollars and six payout pay two thousand dollars each

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that is twelve thousand dollars and

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when we go twelve thousand minus 15 we have a minus

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that gives us a negative three thousand dollars

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so even with six payouts the group lost three thousand dollars

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or thirty dollars per challenge purchased the payout screenshots do not

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show whether the full process made money we need the cost of reaching them

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so do not be happy with just one payout calculate the cost of all the account purchased

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and the fees of them and then compare it to the payout

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that you're getting and you realize

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that a lot of people are actually losing money even

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when getting a payout and now we can connect everything

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so we have the win rate and the average win

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and loss creates the edge

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and then the position size decide how strongly each trade moves the account

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and then the rules decide

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which trade orders continue together they create the chance of reaching funded

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and then the payout rules decide how many funded accounts pay

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payouts minus every fee gives us the real return the full

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question is does my strategy trade it at this size inside these rules produce enough payouts to cover every attempt

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and leave money after it

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that is the math of prop firms that's it for this

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video i hope you enjoyed it make sure to check out each school my community

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if you want to trade with me

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and learn my setup my one week setup that's it and i will see you next one

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Лексика и советы по произношению к этому уроку

Этот урок разговорной практики построен на видео «The Math of Winning in Prop Firms». Чаще всего повторяются слова: account, rate, risk, percent, trade. В этом видео 382 предложений и 4312 слов для шедоуинга. Речь длится 22:53. Говорящий говорит быстро, около 188 слов в минуту, поэтому звуки часто сливаются и сокращаются. 89% слов входят в 3000 самых частых слов английского языка, поэтому лексика простая.

Ключевая лексика этого видео

15 слов из видео, которые стоит выучить, с произношением и значением:

Слово	Произношение	Значение
probability существительное	/ˌpɹɑ.bəˈbɪl.ə.ti/	вероя́тность, правдоподо́бие
reward существительное	/ɹɪˈwɔɹd/	награ́да, вознагражде́ние
trail существительное	/tɹeɪl/	след
boundary существительное	/ˈbaʊndɹi/	грани́ца, межа́
loser существительное	/luzɚ/	проигра́вший, потеря́вший
minus	/ˈmaɪ.nəs/	ми́нус
prop существительное	/pɹɑp/	подста́вка, опо́ра
profitable прилагательное	/ˈpɹɑ.fɪ.tə.bl̩/	вы́годный, при́быльный
smooth прилагательное	/smuːð/	гла́дкий
equity существительное	/ˈɛk.wɪ.ti/	справедли́вость, беспристра́стность
depend глагол	/dɪˈpɛnd/	зави́сеть
mathematics существительное	/mæθ(.ə)ˈmæt.ɪks/	матема́тика
static прилагательное	/ˈstæt.ɪk/	стати́чный
formula существительное	/ˈfɔː.mjʊ.lə/	фо́рмула
layer существительное	/ˈleɪ̯ɚ/	слой, пласт

Фразовые глаголы, которые вы услышите

Слово	Значение
go up глагол	поднима́ться, подня́ться
come back глагол	возвраща́ться, возврати́ться
go over глагол	хорошо́ принима́ться
check out глагол	проверя́ть, прове́рить
go down глагол	спуска́ться, спусти́ться
show up глагол	объявля́ться, объяви́ться

Грамматика в этом видео

Конструкции, которые говорящий использует чаще всего, с точными словами из видео:

Конструкция	В видео
Условные предложения if + предложение, will/would + глагол — условие и его результат	if you zoom out you'll see
Пассивный залог be + причастие прошедшего времени — важно, что происходит, а не кто это делает	is balanced · will be applied · is fixed

Произношение, на которое стоит обратить внимание

Говорящий использует 78 сокращённых и редуцированных форм, например you're, we're, you'll. Произносите их коротко, так, как слышите.

Звуки «th»: smooth /smuːð/, mathematics /mæθ(.ə)ˈmæt.ɪks/, thirty /ˈθɝti/
Звуки «sh» и «zh»: ratio /ˈɹeɪ.ʃoʊ/, calculation /ˌkælkjuˈleɪʃn̩/, screenshot /ˈskriːn.ʃɑt/
Длинные слова — следите за ударением: probability /ˌpɹɑ.bəˈbɪl.ə.ti/, mathematics /mæθ(.ə)ˈmæt.ɪks/, consecutive /kənˈsɛkjʊtɪv/, consistency /kənˈsɪs.tən.si/, universal /ˌjunəˈvɜɹs(ə)l/

Звуки, трудные для русскоязычных:

/w/ — губы округлены, это не /v/: reward /ɹɪˈwɔɹd/, equity /ˈɛk.wɪ.ti/, twelve /twɛlv/, upward /ˈʌpwɚd/
Звонкие согласные в конце слова — не оглушайте их: reward /ɹɪˈwɔɹd/, depend /dɪˈpɛnd/, twelve /twɛlv/, aggressive /əˈɡɹɛs.ɪv/, consecutive /kənˈsɛkjʊtɪv/

Как заниматься с этим видео

Прослушайте всё видео один раз молча и выпишите незнакомые слова.
Начните со скорости 0,75×, повторяйте предложение за предложением и вернитесь к обычной скорости, когда станет легко.
Запишите себя и сравните с оригиналом, обращая внимание на такие слова, как probability, reward, trail.

Что такое техника Shadowing?

Shadowing — это научно обоснованная техника изучения языка, изначально разработанная для подготовки профессиональных переводчиков и популяризированная полиглотом доктором Александром Аргуэльесом. Метод прост, но эффективен: вы слушаете аудио на английском от носителей языка и немедленно повторяете вслух — как тень, следующая за говорящим с задержкой в 1–2 секунды. В отличие от пассивного прослушивания или грамматических упражнений, Shadowing заставляет мозг и мышцы рта одновременно обрабатывать и воспроизводить реальные речевые паттерны. Исследования показывают, что это значительно улучшает точность произношения, интонацию, ритм, связную речь, понимание на слух и беглость речи — что делает его одним из самых эффективных методов для подготовки к IELTS Speaking и реального общения на английском.

Техника шедоуинга: читать полное пошаговое руководство →

Практика Shadowing: The Math of Winning in Prop Firms - Изучайте разговорный английский по видео

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