Shadowing-Übung: What is Forecasting in Supply Chain Management - Englisch Sprechen Lernen mit Video
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So I'm sure you've gone to the store before and thought something would be there and it wasn't.
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And another time you went, And there was a ton Why? something called forecasting and planning.
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So forecasting, what is it?
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Forecasting is simply a prediction.
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It's a guess, an educated guess based on past experiences.
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So companies that have been producing these products year after year,
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they have a ton of data that they can use to determine what their forecast should be of how much,
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how often, how, when and how often something should be produced.
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based on a few things.
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And almost every company that has a product or service use forecasting in some aspect even if they don't call it forecasting.
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Your meteorologist or your weather person, forecast right the weather forecast they're using past data
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and instruments to determine what the forecast will be for the week
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and that data is pretty accurate at this point in the game all types of companies use
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uh forecasting uh to determine how much they will sell this year based on how much they sold last year
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or the year before any uh seasonality
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that could be associated with a product this is why you
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see valentine's day items on the shelf in mid to late january
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and you see that saint patrick's day stuff on the shelf right after valentine's day is over with
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because of forecasting and and planning, but forecasting is used in several different aspects.
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Believe it or not, when you're planning your money to pay bills and things like that, you're forecasting.
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When you're looking at Is this in the budget?
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It's an aspect of forecasting.
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But let's look at forecasting from a bit of a different perspective, because it boils down to knowing the relationship of forecasting
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and a few other variables that really determines how well a company operates
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when it comes to their supply chain or just operating efficiently.
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So first we have what we call customer demand.
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This is what happens when customer demand goes up.
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But supply is low, your prices are going to be high because you have a very hot commodity or product.
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Everybody wants it, but there's not enough of it.
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They're going to raise the prices on those things.
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One, because they can make a profit from it.
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But two, because it's in such high demand and supply is low, it's going to be very hard to get the product.
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This happened with the PS5.
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the PlayStation, they did raise the prices when it first came out.
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Now the opposite happens when supply is high but demand is low right?
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Companies have a ton of inventory and they want to get rid of that inventory as soon as they can because remember, inventory on the shelf companies is cash.
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So we don't want our money just tied up on the shelves.
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If we can sell it, we're going to mark it down, mark it down, mark it down until people actually start buying it because we have too much inventory.
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So when supply is high and demand is low, That is when you have decreases in prices and price drops
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and advertisement for things because companies are trying to get rid of inventory.
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So it starts with customer demand and capacity to meet that demand.
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How much are the consumers like you and I are asking for of this particular product?
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based on consumer demand and the past data that we have, based on consumer consumption, what they've already purchased before, right?
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Last year, previous year, last six months, however you wanna run it.
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Now we can take both of those data points and determine what the forecast should be.
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Now that we have numbers, legitimate numbers, we can move into our planning phase, right?
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We're gonna produce this much, at this time and we're going to sell it at this price.
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And then we may increase or decrease that Based on.. past experiences, as well as customer demand.
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The reason customer demand is always important is because sometimes there are trends
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that are taking place in the marketplace that last year's data will not capture.
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And because of that, we always have to stay abreast to what's going on in the current industry
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or the environment so that we can factor that into our forecast.
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And then the last piece of that is when you begin to schedule things for production.
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Thank you.
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Right, because you can plan, you could forecast based on consumer demand and consumption, but your scheduling is also very important, right?
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You can't just produce a ton of inventory.
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It's very expensive to do and you don't want a lot of it just sitting on the shelves because one, They have a shelf life,
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especially perishables or let's say bread or milk.
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You can't produce a lot of that.
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They have very short expiration dates.
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Right.
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But even computers and televisions, those products to depreciate over time. So.
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Companies want to sell their inventory fast.
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This is where inventory turnover comes in.
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You want your product on the shelf only so long sold.
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By the time it sells, you want your product right back on the shelf.
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So you don't want it selling too fast.
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You don't want it selling too slow.
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balance of power, right?
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But that is forecasting in a nutshell.
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So key takeaways, forecasting is just a prediction based on past experiences, and Customer Demand.
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The important thing is understanding the relationship between customer demand, forecasting, planning, and scheduling.
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Wortschatz und Sprechhinweise zu dieser Lektion
Diese Sprechübung auf Niveau C1 basiert auf dem Video „What is Forecasting in Supply Chain Management“. Diese Wörter kommen am häufigsten vor: forecasting, demand, product, inventory, forecast. Dieses Video enthält 72 Sätze und 931 Wörter zum Nachsprechen. Der gesprochene Teil dauert 6:27. Der Sprecher spricht gleichmäßig mit etwa 144 Wörtern pro Minute – ein angenehmes Tempo fürs Shadowing. 88 % der Wörter gehören zu den 3.000 häufigsten im Englischen; den Rest solltest du dir vor dem Üben ansehen.
Wichtiger Wortschatz in diesem Video
Die 15 anspruchsvollsten Wörter aus dem Video, mit Aussprache und Bedeutung:
| Wort | Aussprache | Bedeutung |
|---|---|---|
| forecast Substantiv | /ˈfɔːkɑːst/ | Schätzung, Vorhersage |
| shelf Substantiv | /ʃɛlf/ | Regal, Brett |
| prediction Substantiv | /pɹɪˈdɪkʃən/ | Voraussage, Vorhersage |
| abreast Adverb | /əˈbɹɛst/ | auf dem Laufenden |
| depreciate Verb | /dəˈpriʃiˌeɪt/ | herabsetzen |
| meteorologist Substantiv | /ˌmiːti.əˈɹɒ.lə.dʒɪst/ | Meteorologe |
| nutshell Substantiv | /ˈnʌt.ʃɛl/ | Nussschale |
| perishable Adjektiv | /ˈpɛ.ɹɪ.ʃə.bəl/ | verderblich, leichtverderblich |
| takeaway Substantiv | /ˈteɪkəweɪ/ | Gaststätte mit Außer-Haus-Verkauf, Restaurant mit Essen zum Mitnehmen |
| turnover Substantiv | /ˈtɝnoʊvɚ/ | Umsatz |
| efficiently Adverb | effizient | |
| marketplace Substantiv | Marktplatz | |
| boil Verb | /bɔɪ(ə)l/ | sieden |
| advertisement Substantiv | /ˈædvɚˌtaɪzmənt/ | Anzeige, Werbung |
| commodity Substantiv | /kəˈmɑdəti/ | Ware, Gut |
Phrasal Verbs, die du hören wirst
| Wort | Aussprache | Bedeutung |
|---|---|---|
| come out Verb | /ˌkʌm ˈaʊt/ | herauskommen |
| go up Verb | hinaufgehen, steigen |
Sätze zum Wiederholen
Kurze, vollständige Sätze aus dem Video, die du im Alltag wiederverwenden kannst:
- You can't just produce a ton of inventory.
- You can't produce a lot of that.
- You don't want it selling too slow.
Grammatik in diesem Video
Die Strukturen, die der Sprecher am häufigsten verwendet, mit den genauen Worten aus dem Video:
| Struktur | Im Video |
|---|---|
| Present Perfect have/has + Partizip Perfekt – eine vergangene Handlung, die jetzt noch wichtig ist | you've gone · they've already purchased |
| Passiv be + Partizip Perfekt – wichtig ist, was geschieht, nicht wer es tut | should be produced · could be associated |
Aussprache, auf die du achten solltest
Der Sprecher verwendet 21 Kurzformen und abgeschwächte Formen, zum Beispiel don't, we're, you're. Sprich sie in der kurzen Form, so wie du sie hörst.
- Die Laute „sh“ und „zh“: shelf /ʃɛlf/, prediction /pɹɪˈdɪkʃən/, depreciate /dəˈpriʃiˌeɪt/, expiration /ˌɛk.spɚˈeɪ̯.ʃən/, nutshell /ˈnʌt.ʃɛl/
- Lange Wörter – auf die Betonung achten: depreciate /dəˈpriʃiˌeɪt/, expiration /ˌɛk.spɚˈeɪ̯.ʃən/, meteorologist /ˌmiːti.əˈɹɒ.lə.dʒɪst/, perishable /ˈpɛ.ɹɪ.ʃə.bəl/, advertisement /ˈædvɚˌtaɪzmənt/
Laute, die Deutschsprachigen schwerfallen:
- /dʒ/ — stimmhaft, nicht „tsch“: meteorologist /ˌmiːti.əˈɹɒ.lə.dʒɪst/, educate /ˈɛd͡ʒ.əˌkeɪt/
So übst du mit diesem Video
- Höre dir das ganze Video einmal an, ohne zu sprechen, und notiere die Wörter, die du nicht kennst.
- Sprich Satz für Satz in normaler Geschwindigkeit nach und wiederhole jeden, bis dein Rhythmus zum Sprecher passt.
- Nimm dich auf und vergleiche mit dem Original; achte dabei auf Wörter wie forecast, shelf, prediction.
Was ist die Shadowing-Technik?
Shadowing ist eine wissenschaftlich fundierte Sprachlerntechnik, die ursprünglich für die professionelle Dolmetscherausbildung entwickelt und durch den Polyglotten Dr. Alexander Arguelles populär gemacht wurde. Die Methode ist einfach aber wirkungsvoll: Du hörst englisches Audio von Muttersprachlern und wiederholst es sofort laut — wie ein Schatten, der dem Sprecher mit nur 1–2 Sekunden Verzögerung folgt. Anders als passives Hören oder Grammatikübungen zwingt Shadowing dein Gehirn und deine Mundmuskulatur, gleichzeitig echte Sprachmuster zu verarbeiten und zu reproduzieren. Studien zeigen, dass es Aussprachegenauigkeit, Intonation, Rhythmus, verbundene Sprache, Hörverständnis und Sprechflüssigkeit signifikant verbessert — was es zu einer der effektivsten Methoden für die IELTS Speaking-Vorbereitung und reale englische Kommunikation macht.