Pratique du Shadowing: What is Forecasting in Supply Chain Management - Apprendre l'anglais à l'oral avec la vidéo
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72 phrases
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So I'm sure you've gone to the store before and thought something would be there and it wasn't.
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And another time you went, And there was a ton Why? something called forecasting and planning.
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So forecasting, what is it?
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Forecasting is simply a prediction.
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It's a guess, an educated guess based on past experiences.
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So companies that have been producing these products year after year,
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they have a ton of data that they can use to determine what their forecast should be of how much,
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how often, how, when and how often something should be produced.
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based on a few things.
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And almost every company that has a product or service use forecasting in some aspect even if they don't call it forecasting.
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Your meteorologist or your weather person, forecast right the weather forecast they're using past data
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and instruments to determine what the forecast will be for the week
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and that data is pretty accurate at this point in the game all types of companies use
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uh forecasting uh to determine how much they will sell this year based on how much they sold last year
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or the year before any uh seasonality
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that could be associated with a product this is why you
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see valentine's day items on the shelf in mid to late january
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and you see that saint patrick's day stuff on the shelf right after valentine's day is over with
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because of forecasting and and planning, but forecasting is used in several different aspects.
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Believe it or not, when you're planning your money to pay bills and things like that, you're forecasting.
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When you're looking at Is this in the budget?
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It's an aspect of forecasting.
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But let's look at forecasting from a bit of a different perspective, because it boils down to knowing the relationship of forecasting
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and a few other variables that really determines how well a company operates
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when it comes to their supply chain or just operating efficiently.
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So first we have what we call customer demand.
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This is what happens when customer demand goes up.
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But supply is low, your prices are going to be high because you have a very hot commodity or product.
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Everybody wants it, but there's not enough of it.
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They're going to raise the prices on those things.
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One, because they can make a profit from it.
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But two, because it's in such high demand and supply is low, it's going to be very hard to get the product.
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This happened with the PS5.
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the PlayStation, they did raise the prices when it first came out.
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Now the opposite happens when supply is high but demand is low right?
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Companies have a ton of inventory and they want to get rid of that inventory as soon as they can because remember, inventory on the shelf companies is cash.
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So we don't want our money just tied up on the shelves.
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If we can sell it, we're going to mark it down, mark it down, mark it down until people actually start buying it because we have too much inventory.
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So when supply is high and demand is low, That is when you have decreases in prices and price drops
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and advertisement for things because companies are trying to get rid of inventory.
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So it starts with customer demand and capacity to meet that demand.
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How much are the consumers like you and I are asking for of this particular product?
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based on consumer demand and the past data that we have, based on consumer consumption, what they've already purchased before, right?
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Last year, previous year, last six months, however you wanna run it.
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Now we can take both of those data points and determine what the forecast should be.
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Now that we have numbers, legitimate numbers, we can move into our planning phase, right?
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We're gonna produce this much, at this time and we're going to sell it at this price.
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And then we may increase or decrease that Based on.. past experiences, as well as customer demand.
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The reason customer demand is always important is because sometimes there are trends
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that are taking place in the marketplace that last year's data will not capture.
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And because of that, we always have to stay abreast to what's going on in the current industry
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or the environment so that we can factor that into our forecast.
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And then the last piece of that is when you begin to schedule things for production.
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Thank you.
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Right, because you can plan, you could forecast based on consumer demand and consumption, but your scheduling is also very important, right?
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You can't just produce a ton of inventory.
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It's very expensive to do and you don't want a lot of it just sitting on the shelves because one, They have a shelf life,
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especially perishables or let's say bread or milk.
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You can't produce a lot of that.
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They have very short expiration dates.
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Right.
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But even computers and televisions, those products to depreciate over time. So.
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Companies want to sell their inventory fast.
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This is where inventory turnover comes in.
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You want your product on the shelf only so long sold.
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By the time it sells, you want your product right back on the shelf.
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So you don't want it selling too fast.
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You don't want it selling too slow.
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balance of power, right?
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But that is forecasting in a nutshell.
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So key takeaways, forecasting is just a prediction based on past experiences, and Customer Demand.
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The important thing is understanding the relationship between customer demand, forecasting, planning, and scheduling.
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Vocabulaire et conseils d’expression pour cette leçon
Cette leçon d’expression orale de niveau C1 s’appuie sur la vidéo « What is Forecasting in Supply Chain Management ». Les mots qui reviennent le plus souvent : forecasting, demand, product, inventory, forecast. Cette vidéo contient 72 phrases et 931 mots à répéter en shadowing. La partie parlée dure 6:27. Le locuteur parle à un rythme régulier d’environ 144 mots par minute, confortable pour le shadowing. 88 % des mots font partie des 3 000 mots les plus courants en anglais ; le reste mérite d’être vu avant de commencer.
Vocabulaire clé de cette vidéo
Les 15 mots les plus avancés de la vidéo, avec leur prononciation et leur sens :
| Mot | Prononciation | Sens |
|---|---|---|
| forecast nom | /ˈfɔːkɑːst/ | prévision |
| shelf nom | /ʃɛlf/ | rayon, étagère |
| prediction nom | /pɹɪˈdɪkʃən/ | prédiction |
| abreast adverbe | /əˈbɹɛst/ | au courant |
| depreciate verbe | /dəˈpriʃiˌeɪt/ | déprécier |
| expiration nom | /ˌɛk.spɚˈeɪ̯.ʃən/ | expiration |
| meteorologist nom | /ˌmiːti.əˈɹɒ.lə.dʒɪst/ | météorologue, météorologiste |
| nutshell nom | /ˈnʌt.ʃɛl/ | coque, coquille |
| perishable adjectif | /ˈpɛ.ɹɪ.ʃə.bəl/ | périssable |
| seasonality nom | saisonnalité | |
| takeaway nom | /ˈteɪkəweɪ/ | plat à emporter |
| turnover nom | /ˈtɝnoʊvɚ/ | chiffre d'affaires |
| efficiently adverbe | efficacement | |
| marketplace nom | marché, place du marché | |
| boil verbe | /bɔɪ(ə)l/ | faire bouillir, porter à ébullition |
Les verbes à particule que vous entendrez
| Mot | Prononciation | Sens |
|---|---|---|
| come out verbe | /ˌkʌm ˈaʊt/ | sortir |
| go up verbe | monter, s'élever |
Des phrases à répéter
Des phrases courtes et complètes de la vidéo, à réutiliser dans la conversation de tous les jours :
- You can't just produce a ton of inventory.
- You can't produce a lot of that.
- You don't want it selling too slow.
La grammaire de cette vidéo
Les structures que le locuteur utilise le plus, avec les mots exacts de la vidéo :
| Structure | Dans la vidéo |
|---|---|
| Present perfect have/has + participe passé — une action passée qui compte encore maintenant | you've gone · they've already purchased |
| Voix passive be + participe passé — l’accent est mis sur ce qui arrive, pas sur qui le fait | should be produced · could be associated |
Prononciation à surveiller
Le locuteur utilise 21 contractions et formes réduites, comme don't, we're, you're. Prononcez-les sous leur forme courte, telles que vous les entendez.
- Les sons « sh » et « zh »: shelf /ʃɛlf/, prediction /pɹɪˈdɪkʃən/, depreciate /dəˈpriʃiˌeɪt/, expiration /ˌɛk.spɚˈeɪ̯.ʃən/, nutshell /ˈnʌt.ʃɛl/
- Mots longs — placez bien l’accent: depreciate /dəˈpriʃiˌeɪt/, expiration /ˌɛk.spɚˈeɪ̯.ʃən/, meteorologist /ˌmiːti.əˈɹɒ.lə.dʒɪst/, perishable /ˈpɛ.ɹɪ.ʃə.bəl/, advertisement /ˈædvɚˌtaɪzmənt/
Les sons difficiles pour les francophones :
- /tʃ/ et /dʒ/ — à ne pas adoucir en « ch » et « j »: meteorologist /ˌmiːti.əˈɹɒ.lə.dʒɪst/, educate /ˈɛd͡ʒ.əˌkeɪt/
- /r/ anglais — langue recourbée, sans frotter la gorge: prediction /pɹɪˈdɪkʃən/, abreast /əˈbɹɛst/, depreciate /dəˈpriʃiˌeɪt/, meteorologist /ˌmiːti.əˈɹɒ.lə.dʒɪst/, perishable /ˈpɛ.ɹɪ.ʃə.bəl/
Comment s’entraîner avec cette vidéo
- Écoutez la vidéo en entier une fois sans parler et notez les mots que vous ne connaissez pas.
- Répétez phrase par phrase à vitesse normale, en reprenant chacune jusqu’à ce que votre rythme corresponde à celui du locuteur.
- Enregistrez-vous et comparez avec l’original, en faisant attention à des mots comme forecast, shelf, prediction.
Qu'est-ce que la technique du Shadowing ?
Le Shadowing est une technique d'apprentissage des langues fondée sur la science, développée à l'origine pour la formation des interprètes professionnels. Le principe est simple mais puissant : vous écoutez de l'anglais natif et le répétez immédiatement à voix haute — comme une ombre suivant le locuteur avec un décalage de 1 à 2 secondes. Les recherches montrent une amélioration significative de la précision de la prononciation, de l'intonation, du rythme, des liaisons, de la compréhension orale et de la fluidité.