تدريب Shadowing: What is Forecasting in Supply Chain Management - تعلم التحدث بالإنجليزية عبر الفيديو
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So I'm sure you've gone to the store before and thought something would be there and it wasn't.
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And another time you went, And there was a ton Why? something called forecasting and planning.
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So forecasting, what is it?
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Forecasting is simply a prediction.
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It's a guess, an educated guess based on past experiences.
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So companies that have been producing these products year after year,
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they have a ton of data that they can use to determine what their forecast should be of how much,
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how often, how, when and how often something should be produced.
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based on a few things.
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And almost every company that has a product or service use forecasting in some aspect even if they don't call it forecasting.
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Your meteorologist or your weather person, forecast right the weather forecast they're using past data
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and instruments to determine what the forecast will be for the week
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and that data is pretty accurate at this point in the game all types of companies use
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uh forecasting uh to determine how much they will sell this year based on how much they sold last year
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or the year before any uh seasonality
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that could be associated with a product this is why you
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see valentine's day items on the shelf in mid to late january
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and you see that saint patrick's day stuff on the shelf right after valentine's day is over with
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because of forecasting and and planning, but forecasting is used in several different aspects.
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Believe it or not, when you're planning your money to pay bills and things like that, you're forecasting.
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When you're looking at Is this in the budget?
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It's an aspect of forecasting.
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But let's look at forecasting from a bit of a different perspective, because it boils down to knowing the relationship of forecasting
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and a few other variables that really determines how well a company operates
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when it comes to their supply chain or just operating efficiently.
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So first we have what we call customer demand.
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This is what happens when customer demand goes up.
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But supply is low, your prices are going to be high because you have a very hot commodity or product.
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Everybody wants it, but there's not enough of it.
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They're going to raise the prices on those things.
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One, because they can make a profit from it.
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But two, because it's in such high demand and supply is low, it's going to be very hard to get the product.
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This happened with the PS5.
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the PlayStation, they did raise the prices when it first came out.
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Now the opposite happens when supply is high but demand is low right?
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Companies have a ton of inventory and they want to get rid of that inventory as soon as they can because remember, inventory on the shelf companies is cash.
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So we don't want our money just tied up on the shelves.
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If we can sell it, we're going to mark it down, mark it down, mark it down until people actually start buying it because we have too much inventory.
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So when supply is high and demand is low, That is when you have decreases in prices and price drops
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and advertisement for things because companies are trying to get rid of inventory.
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So it starts with customer demand and capacity to meet that demand.
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How much are the consumers like you and I are asking for of this particular product?
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based on consumer demand and the past data that we have, based on consumer consumption, what they've already purchased before, right?
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Last year, previous year, last six months, however you wanna run it.
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Now we can take both of those data points and determine what the forecast should be.
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Now that we have numbers, legitimate numbers, we can move into our planning phase, right?
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We're gonna produce this much, at this time and we're going to sell it at this price.
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And then we may increase or decrease that Based on.. past experiences, as well as customer demand.
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The reason customer demand is always important is because sometimes there are trends
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that are taking place in the marketplace that last year's data will not capture.
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And because of that, we always have to stay abreast to what's going on in the current industry
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or the environment so that we can factor that into our forecast.
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And then the last piece of that is when you begin to schedule things for production.
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Thank you.
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Right, because you can plan, you could forecast based on consumer demand and consumption, but your scheduling is also very important, right?
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You can't just produce a ton of inventory.
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It's very expensive to do and you don't want a lot of it just sitting on the shelves because one, They have a shelf life,
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especially perishables or let's say bread or milk.
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You can't produce a lot of that.
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They have very short expiration dates.
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Right.
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But even computers and televisions, those products to depreciate over time. So.
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Companies want to sell their inventory fast.
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This is where inventory turnover comes in.
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You want your product on the shelf only so long sold.
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By the time it sells, you want your product right back on the shelf.
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So you don't want it selling too fast.
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You don't want it selling too slow.
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balance of power, right?
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But that is forecasting in a nutshell.
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So key takeaways, forecasting is just a prediction based on past experiences, and Customer Demand.
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The important thing is understanding the relationship between customer demand, forecasting, planning, and scheduling.
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Vocabulary and speaking notes for this lesson
This C1 speaking lesson is built on the video “What is Forecasting in Supply Chain Management”. The speaker keeps coming back to these words: forecasting, demand, product, inventory, forecast. This video has 72 sentences and 931 words to shadow. The speech runs for 6:27. The speaker talks at a steady 144 words per minute, a comfortable pace for shadowing. 88% of the words are among the 3,000 most common in English; the rest is worth studying before you start.
Key vocabulary in this video
The 15 most advanced words in the video, with pronunciation and meaning:
| Word | Pronunciation | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| forecast noun | /ˈfɔːkɑːst/ | An estimation of a future condition. |
| shelf noun | /ʃɛlf/ | A flat, rigid structure, fixed at right angles to a wall or forming a part of a cabinet, desk, etc., and used to display, store, or support objects. |
| prediction noun | /pɹɪˈdɪkʃən/ | A statement of what will happen in the future. |
| abreast adverb | /əˈbɹɛst/ | Side by side and facing forward. |
| depreciate verb | /dəˈpriʃiˌeɪt/ | To lessen in price or estimated value; to lower the worth of. |
| expiration noun | /ˌɛk.spɚˈeɪ̯.ʃən/ | The act or process of breathing out, or forcing air from the lungs through the nose or mouth. |
| meteorologist noun | /ˌmiːti.əˈɹɒ.lə.dʒɪst/ | A person who studies meteorology. |
| nutshell noun | /ˈnʌt.ʃɛl/ | The shell that surrounds the kernel of a nut. |
| perishable adjective | /ˈpɛ.ɹɪ.ʃə.bəl/ | Liable to perish, especially naturally subject to quick decomposition or decay. |
| seasonality noun | Variation with the seasons | |
| takeaway noun | /ˈteɪkəweɪ/ | A restaurant that sells food to be eaten elsewhere. |
| turnover noun | /ˈtɝnoʊvɚ/ | The amount of money taken as sales transacted in a given period. |
| efficiently adverb | In an efficient manner. | |
| marketplace noun | An open area in a town housing a public market. | |
| boil verb | /bɔɪ(ə)l/ | To heat to the point where it begins to turn into a gas. |
Phrasal verbs you will hear
| Word | Pronunciation | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| come out verb | /ˌkʌm ˈaʊt/ | To be discovered; to be revealed. |
| go up verb | To move upwards. |
Sentences worth repeating
Short, complete lines from the video that you can reuse in everyday conversation:
- You can't just produce a ton of inventory.
- You can't produce a lot of that.
- You don't want it selling too slow.
القواعد في هذا الفيديو
أكثر التراكيب التي يستخدمها المتحدث، مع العبارات نفسها من الفيديو:
| التركيب | في الفيديو |
|---|---|
| المضارع التام have/has + اسم المفعول — حدث ماضٍ ما زال له أثر الآن | you've gone · they've already purchased |
| المبني للمجهول be + اسم المفعول — التركيز على ما يحدث لا على من يفعله | should be produced · could be associated |
Pronunciation to watch
The speaker uses 21 contractions and reduced forms, such as don't, we're, you're. Say them the short way, as you hear them.
- The “sh” and “zh” sounds: shelf /ʃɛlf/, prediction /pɹɪˈdɪkʃən/, depreciate /dəˈpriʃiˌeɪt/, expiration /ˌɛk.spɚˈeɪ̯.ʃən/, nutshell /ˈnʌt.ʃɛl/
- Long words — get the stress right: depreciate /dəˈpriʃiˌeɪt/, expiration /ˌɛk.spɚˈeɪ̯.ʃən/, meteorologist /ˌmiːti.əˈɹɒ.lə.dʒɪst/, perishable /ˈpɛ.ɹɪ.ʃə.bəl/, advertisement /ˈædvɚˌtaɪzmənt/
How to practise with this video
- Listen to the whole video once without speaking and note the words you do not know.
- Shadow it sentence by sentence at normal speed, repeating each one until your rhythm matches the speaker.
- Record yourself and compare with the original, paying attention to words like forecast, shelf, prediction.
ما هي تقنية التظليل الصوتي؟
التظليل الصوتي (Shadowing) تقنية تعلم لغة مدعومة علمياً، طُورت أصلاً لتدريب المترجمين الفوريين المحترفين. الطريقة بسيطة لكنها قوية: تستمع لصوت إنجليزي أصلي وتكرره فوراً بصوت عالٍ — كظل يتبع المتحدث بتأخير 1-2 ثانية. تُظهر الأبحاث تحسناً كبيراً في دقة النطق والتنغيم والإيقاع وربط الأصوات والاستماع والطلاقة.