シャドーイング練習: What is Forecasting in Supply Chain Management - 動画で英語スピーキングを学ぶ
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So I'm sure you've gone to the store before and thought something would be there and it wasn't.
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And another time you went, And there was a ton Why? something called forecasting and planning.
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So forecasting, what is it?
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Forecasting is simply a prediction.
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It's a guess, an educated guess based on past experiences.
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So companies that have been producing these products year after year,
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they have a ton of data that they can use to determine what their forecast should be of how much,
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how often, how, when and how often something should be produced.
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based on a few things.
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And almost every company that has a product or service use forecasting in some aspect even if they don't call it forecasting.
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Your meteorologist or your weather person, forecast right the weather forecast they're using past data
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and instruments to determine what the forecast will be for the week
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and that data is pretty accurate at this point in the game all types of companies use
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uh forecasting uh to determine how much they will sell this year based on how much they sold last year
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or the year before any uh seasonality
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that could be associated with a product this is why you
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see valentine's day items on the shelf in mid to late january
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and you see that saint patrick's day stuff on the shelf right after valentine's day is over with
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because of forecasting and and planning, but forecasting is used in several different aspects.
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Believe it or not, when you're planning your money to pay bills and things like that, you're forecasting.
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When you're looking at Is this in the budget?
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It's an aspect of forecasting.
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But let's look at forecasting from a bit of a different perspective, because it boils down to knowing the relationship of forecasting
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and a few other variables that really determines how well a company operates
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when it comes to their supply chain or just operating efficiently.
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So first we have what we call customer demand.
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This is what happens when customer demand goes up.
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But supply is low, your prices are going to be high because you have a very hot commodity or product.
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Everybody wants it, but there's not enough of it.
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They're going to raise the prices on those things.
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One, because they can make a profit from it.
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But two, because it's in such high demand and supply is low, it's going to be very hard to get the product.
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This happened with the PS5.
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the PlayStation, they did raise the prices when it first came out.
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Now the opposite happens when supply is high but demand is low right?
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Companies have a ton of inventory and they want to get rid of that inventory as soon as they can because remember, inventory on the shelf companies is cash.
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So we don't want our money just tied up on the shelves.
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If we can sell it, we're going to mark it down, mark it down, mark it down until people actually start buying it because we have too much inventory.
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So when supply is high and demand is low, That is when you have decreases in prices and price drops
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and advertisement for things because companies are trying to get rid of inventory.
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So it starts with customer demand and capacity to meet that demand.
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How much are the consumers like you and I are asking for of this particular product?
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based on consumer demand and the past data that we have, based on consumer consumption, what they've already purchased before, right?
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Last year, previous year, last six months, however you wanna run it.
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Now we can take both of those data points and determine what the forecast should be.
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Now that we have numbers, legitimate numbers, we can move into our planning phase, right?
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We're gonna produce this much, at this time and we're going to sell it at this price.
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And then we may increase or decrease that Based on.. past experiences, as well as customer demand.
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The reason customer demand is always important is because sometimes there are trends
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that are taking place in the marketplace that last year's data will not capture.
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And because of that, we always have to stay abreast to what's going on in the current industry
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or the environment so that we can factor that into our forecast.
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And then the last piece of that is when you begin to schedule things for production.
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Thank you.
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Right, because you can plan, you could forecast based on consumer demand and consumption, but your scheduling is also very important, right?
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You can't just produce a ton of inventory.
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It's very expensive to do and you don't want a lot of it just sitting on the shelves because one, They have a shelf life,
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especially perishables or let's say bread or milk.
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You can't produce a lot of that.
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They have very short expiration dates.
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Right.
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But even computers and televisions, those products to depreciate over time. So.
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Companies want to sell their inventory fast.
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This is where inventory turnover comes in.
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You want your product on the shelf only so long sold.
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By the time it sells, you want your product right back on the shelf.
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So you don't want it selling too fast.
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You don't want it selling too slow.
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balance of power, right?
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But that is forecasting in a nutshell.
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So key takeaways, forecasting is just a prediction based on past experiences, and Customer Demand.
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The important thing is understanding the relationship between customer demand, forecasting, planning, and scheduling.
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このレッスンの語彙とスピーキングのポイント
このC1レベルのスピーキングレッスンは、動画「What is Forecasting in Supply Chain Management」を教材にしています。 繰り返し出てくる語は次のとおりです：forecasting, demand, product, inventory, forecast。 この動画には、シャドーイング用の文が72文、単語が931語あります。 音声の長さは6:27です。 話す速さは1分あたり約144語で安定しており、シャドーイングしやすいペースです。 単語の88%は英語の頻出3,000語に含まれます。残りは練習の前に確認しておきましょう。
この動画の重要語彙
動画の中で特に難しい単語11語を、発音と意味つきで紹介します。
| 単語 | 発音 | 意味 |
|---|---|---|
| forecast 名詞 | /ˈfɔːkɑːst/ | 予想, 予報 |
| shelf 名詞 | /ʃɛlf/ | 棚 |
| prediction 名詞 | /pɹɪˈdɪkʃən/ | 予言, 予測 |
| meteorologist 名詞 | /ˌmiːti.əˈɹɒ.lə.dʒɪst/ | 気象学者 |
| nutshell 名詞 | /ˈnʌt.ʃɛl/ | 木の実の殻 |
| turnover 名詞 | /ˈtɝnoʊvɚ/ | 取引高 |
| marketplace 名詞 | 墟市, 草市 | |
| boil 動詞 | /bɔɪ(ə)l/ | 沸かす, 沸騰させる |
| advertisement 名詞 | /ˈædvɚˌtaɪzmənt/ | 広告, ＣＭ |
| commodity 名詞 | /kəˈmɑdəti/ | 商品, 品 |
| educate 動詞 | /ˈɛd͡ʒ.əˌkeɪt/ | 教える, 教育する |
動画に出てくる句動詞
| 単語 | 発音 | 意味 |
|---|---|---|
| come out 動詞 | /ˌkʌm ˈaʊt/ | 出る |
| go up 動詞 | 上がる, 登る |
繰り返し練習したい文
動画に出てくる短く完結した文です。日常会話でそのまま使えます。
- You can't just produce a ton of inventory.
- You can't produce a lot of that.
- You don't want it selling too slow.
この動画の文法
話し手がよく使っている文型を、動画の実際の表現とともに紹介します。
| 文型 | 動画での表現 |
|---|---|
| 現在完了形 have/has + 過去分詞 — 過去の出来事が今も関係している | you've gone · they've already purchased |
| 受動態 be + 過去分詞 — 誰がするかより、何が起きるかに焦点を当てる | should be produced · could be associated |
注意したい発音
話し手はdon't, we're, you'reなど、短縮形や弱形を21回使っています。聞こえたとおりの短い形で発音しましょう。
- 「sh」と「zh」の音: shelf /ʃɛlf/, prediction /pɹɪˈdɪkʃən/, depreciate /dəˈpriʃiˌeɪt/, expiration /ˌɛk.spɚˈeɪ̯.ʃən/, nutshell /ˈnʌt.ʃɛl/
- 長い単語（アクセントの位置に注意）: depreciate /dəˈpriʃiˌeɪt/, expiration /ˌɛk.spɚˈeɪ̯.ʃən/, meteorologist /ˌmiːti.əˈɹɒ.lə.dʒɪst/, perishable /ˈpɛ.ɹɪ.ʃə.bəl/, advertisement /ˈædvɚˌtaɪzmənt/
日本語話者が苦手な音：
- /r/ と /l/ の区別 — /l/ は舌先を歯茎につけ、/r/ はどこにもつけない: meteorologist /ˌmiːti.əˈɹɒ.lə.dʒɪst/, perishable /ˈpɛ.ɹɪ.ʃə.bəl/
- /v/ — /b/ にならないように、上の歯を下唇に当てる: turnover /ˈtɝnoʊvɚ/, advertisement /ˈædvɚˌtaɪzmənt/
- /f/ — 「フ」ではなく、上の歯と下唇で出す: forecast /ˈfɔːkɑːst/, shelf /ʃɛlf/
この動画での練習方法
- まず声を出さずに動画を最後まで聞き、知らない単語をメモします。
- 通常の速度で一文ずつシャドーイングし、話し手のリズムに合うまで繰り返します。
- 自分の声を録音して元の音声と比べます。forecast, shelf, predictionなどの単語に特に注意しましょう。
シャドーイングとは？英語上達に効果的な理由
シャドーイング（Shadowing）は、もともとプロの通訳者養成プログラムで開発された言語学習法で、多言語習得者として知られるDr. Alexander Arguelles によって広く普及されました。方法はシンプルですが非常に効果的：ネイティブスピーカーの英語を聞きながら、1〜2秒の遅延で声に出してすぐに繰り返す——まるで「影（shadow）」のように話者を追いかけます。文法ドリルや受動的なリスニングと異なり、シャドーイングは脳と口の筋肉が同時にリアルタイムで英語を処理・再現することを強制します。研究により、発音精度、抑揚、リズム、連音、リスニング力、そして会話の流暢さが大幅に向上することが確認されています。IELTSスピーキング対策や自然な英語コミュニケーションを目指す方に特におすすめです。