शैडोइंग अभ्यास: What is Forecasting in Supply Chain Management - वीडियो के साथ अंग्रेजी बोलना सीखें
पाठ बनाया जा रहा है...
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So I'm sure you've gone to the store before and thought something would be there and it wasn't.
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And another time you went, And there was a ton Why? something called forecasting and planning.
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So forecasting, what is it?
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Forecasting is simply a prediction.
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It's a guess, an educated guess based on past experiences.
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So companies that have been producing these products year after year,
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they have a ton of data that they can use to determine what their forecast should be of how much,
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how often, how, when and how often something should be produced.
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based on a few things.
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And almost every company that has a product or service use forecasting in some aspect even if they don't call it forecasting.
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Your meteorologist or your weather person, forecast right the weather forecast they're using past data
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and instruments to determine what the forecast will be for the week
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and that data is pretty accurate at this point in the game all types of companies use
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uh forecasting uh to determine how much they will sell this year based on how much they sold last year
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or the year before any uh seasonality
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that could be associated with a product this is why you
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see valentine's day items on the shelf in mid to late january
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and you see that saint patrick's day stuff on the shelf right after valentine's day is over with
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because of forecasting and and planning, but forecasting is used in several different aspects.
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Believe it or not, when you're planning your money to pay bills and things like that, you're forecasting.
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When you're looking at Is this in the budget?
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It's an aspect of forecasting.
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But let's look at forecasting from a bit of a different perspective, because it boils down to knowing the relationship of forecasting
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and a few other variables that really determines how well a company operates
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when it comes to their supply chain or just operating efficiently.
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So first we have what we call customer demand.
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This is what happens when customer demand goes up.
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But supply is low, your prices are going to be high because you have a very hot commodity or product.
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Everybody wants it, but there's not enough of it.
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They're going to raise the prices on those things.
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One, because they can make a profit from it.
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But two, because it's in such high demand and supply is low, it's going to be very hard to get the product.
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This happened with the PS5.
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the PlayStation, they did raise the prices when it first came out.
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Now the opposite happens when supply is high but demand is low right?
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Companies have a ton of inventory and they want to get rid of that inventory as soon as they can because remember, inventory on the shelf companies is cash.
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So we don't want our money just tied up on the shelves.
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If we can sell it, we're going to mark it down, mark it down, mark it down until people actually start buying it because we have too much inventory.
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So when supply is high and demand is low, That is when you have decreases in prices and price drops
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and advertisement for things because companies are trying to get rid of inventory.
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So it starts with customer demand and capacity to meet that demand.
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How much are the consumers like you and I are asking for of this particular product?
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based on consumer demand and the past data that we have, based on consumer consumption, what they've already purchased before, right?
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Last year, previous year, last six months, however you wanna run it.
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Now we can take both of those data points and determine what the forecast should be.
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Now that we have numbers, legitimate numbers, we can move into our planning phase, right?
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We're gonna produce this much, at this time and we're going to sell it at this price.
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And then we may increase or decrease that Based on.. past experiences, as well as customer demand.
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The reason customer demand is always important is because sometimes there are trends
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that are taking place in the marketplace that last year's data will not capture.
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And because of that, we always have to stay abreast to what's going on in the current industry
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or the environment so that we can factor that into our forecast.
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And then the last piece of that is when you begin to schedule things for production.
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Thank you.
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Right, because you can plan, you could forecast based on consumer demand and consumption, but your scheduling is also very important, right?
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You can't just produce a ton of inventory.
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It's very expensive to do and you don't want a lot of it just sitting on the shelves because one, They have a shelf life,
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especially perishables or let's say bread or milk.
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You can't produce a lot of that.
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They have very short expiration dates.
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Right.
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But even computers and televisions, those products to depreciate over time. So.
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Companies want to sell their inventory fast.
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This is where inventory turnover comes in.
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You want your product on the shelf only so long sold.
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By the time it sells, you want your product right back on the shelf.
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So you don't want it selling too fast.
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You don't want it selling too slow.
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balance of power, right?
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But that is forecasting in a nutshell.
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So key takeaways, forecasting is just a prediction based on past experiences, and Customer Demand.
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The important thing is understanding the relationship between customer demand, forecasting, planning, and scheduling.
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इस पाठ की शब्दावली और बोलने के सुझाव
यह C1 स्तर का स्पीकिंग पाठ वीडियो “What is Forecasting in Supply Chain Management” पर आधारित है। सबसे ज़्यादा दोहराए गए शब्द ये हैं: forecasting, demand, product, inventory, forecast। इस वीडियो में शैडोइंग के लिए 72 वाक्य और 931 शब्द हैं। बोला गया हिस्सा 6:27 लंबा है। वक्ता लगभग 144 शब्द प्रति मिनट की स्थिर गति से बोलता है, जो शैडोइंग के लिए आरामदायक है। 88% शब्द अंग्रेज़ी के 3,000 सबसे आम शब्दों में से हैं; बाकी शब्द अभ्यास से पहले देख लेना अच्छा रहेगा।
इस वीडियो की मुख्य शब्दावली
वीडियो के 10 सबसे कठिन शब्द, उच्चारण और अर्थ के साथ:
| शब्द | उच्चारण | अर्थ |
|---|---|---|
| forecast संज्ञा | /ˈfɔːkɑːst/ | पूर्वानुमान, पेशगोई |
| shelf संज्ञा | /ʃɛlf/ | तख़्ता |
| prediction संज्ञा | /pɹɪˈdɪkʃən/ | प्रागुक्ति, भविष्यवाणी |
| meteorologist संज्ञा | /ˌmiːti.əˈɹɒ.lə.dʒɪst/ | मौसम विज्ञानी |
| perishable विशेषण | /ˈpɛ.ɹɪ.ʃə.bəl/ | विनाशी, नश्वर |
| seasonality संज्ञा | मौसमीपन | |
| marketplace संज्ञा | हाट | |
| boil क्रिया | /bɔɪ(ə)l/ | उबलना |
| advertisement संज्ञा | /ˈædvɚˌtaɪzmənt/ | विज्ञापन |
| commodity संज्ञा | /kəˈmɑdəti/ | वस्तु, जिंस |
दोहराने लायक वाक्य
वीडियो के छोटे, पूरे वाक्य जिन्हें आप रोज़ की बातचीत में इस्तेमाल कर सकते हैं:
- You can't just produce a ton of inventory.
- You can't produce a lot of that.
- You don't want it selling too slow.
इस वीडियो का व्याकरण
वक्ता जिन संरचनाओं का सबसे अधिक प्रयोग करता है, वीडियो के असली शब्दों के साथ:
| संरचना | वीडियो में |
|---|---|
| Present perfect have/has + past participle — बीता हुआ काम जिसका असर अभी भी है | you've gone · they've already purchased |
| Passive voice be + past participle — ज़ोर इस पर कि क्या होता है, न कि कौन करता है | should be produced · could be associated |
ध्यान देने योग्य उच्चारण
वक्ता 21 बार संक्षिप्त रूपों का प्रयोग करता है, जैसे don't, we're, you're। इन्हें वैसे ही छोटा बोलें जैसा आप सुनते हैं।
- “sh” और “zh” की ध्वनियाँ: shelf /ʃɛlf/, prediction /pɹɪˈdɪkʃən/, depreciate /dəˈpriʃiˌeɪt/, expiration /ˌɛk.spɚˈeɪ̯.ʃən/, nutshell /ˈnʌt.ʃɛl/
- लंबे शब्द — बलाघात सही रखें: depreciate /dəˈpriʃiˌeɪt/, expiration /ˌɛk.spɚˈeɪ̯.ʃən/, meteorologist /ˌmiːti.əˈɹɒ.lə.dʒɪst/, perishable /ˈpɛ.ɹɪ.ʃə.bəl/, advertisement /ˈædvɚˌtaɪzmənt/
हिंदी भाषियों के लिए मुश्किल ध्वनियाँ:
- /v/ और /w/ का फ़र्क़ — /v/ में ऊपर के दाँत निचले होंठ को छूते हैं, /w/ में होंठ गोल होते हैं: takeaway /ˈteɪkəweɪ/, turnover /ˈtɝnoʊvɚ/, advertisement /ˈædvɚˌtaɪzmənt/
इस वीडियो से अभ्यास कैसे करें
- पहले बिना बोले पूरा वीडियो एक बार सुनें और जो शब्द नहीं आते उन्हें लिख लें।
- सामान्य गति पर एक-एक वाक्य की शैडोइंग करें और हर वाक्य तब तक दोहराएँ जब तक आपकी लय वक्ता से न मिल जाए।
- अपनी आवाज़ रिकॉर्ड करें और मूल से तुलना करें, ख़ासकर forecast, shelf, prediction जैसे शब्दों पर ध्यान दें।
शैडोइंग तकनीक क्या है?
शैडोइंग (Shadowing) एक विज्ञान-समर्थित भाषा सीखने की तकनीक है जो मूल रूप से पेशेवर दुभाषिया प्रशिक्षण के लिए विकसित की गई थी। विधि सरल लेकिन शक्तिशाली है: आप मूल अंग्रेज़ी ऑडियो सुनते हैं और तुरंत इसे ज़ोर से दोहराते हैं — जैसे वक्ता की छाया 1-2 सेकंड की देरी से। शोध से पता चलता है कि यह उच्चारण सटीकता, स्वर, लय, जुड़ी हुई ध्वनियाँ, सुनने की समझ और बोलने की प्रवाहशीलता में काफ़ी सुधार करता है।