跟讀練習: What is Forecasting in Supply Chain Management - 通過影片學習英語口語

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So I'm sure you've gone to the store before and thought something would be there and it wasn't.

And another time you went, And there was a ton Why? something called forecasting and planning.

So forecasting, what is it?

Forecasting is simply a prediction.

It's a guess, an educated guess based on past experiences.

So companies that have been producing these products year after year,

they have a ton of data that they can use to determine what their forecast should be of how much,

how often, how, when and how often something should be produced.

based on a few things.

And almost every company that has a product or service use forecasting in some aspect even if they don't call it forecasting.

Your meteorologist or your weather person, forecast right the weather forecast they're using past data

and instruments to determine what the forecast will be for the week

and that data is pretty accurate at this point in the game all types of companies use

uh forecasting uh to determine how much they will sell this year based on how much they sold last year

or the year before any uh seasonality

that could be associated with a product this is why you

see valentine's day items on the shelf in mid to late january

and you see that saint patrick's day stuff on the shelf right after valentine's day is over with

because of forecasting and and planning, but forecasting is used in several different aspects.

Believe it or not, when you're planning your money to pay bills and things like that, you're forecasting.

When you're looking at Is this in the budget?

It's an aspect of forecasting.

But let's look at forecasting from a bit of a different perspective, because it boils down to knowing the relationship of forecasting

and a few other variables that really determines how well a company operates

when it comes to their supply chain or just operating efficiently.

So first we have what we call customer demand.

This is what happens when customer demand goes up.

But supply is low, your prices are going to be high because you have a very hot commodity or product.

Everybody wants it, but there's not enough of it.

They're going to raise the prices on those things.

One, because they can make a profit from it.

But two, because it's in such high demand and supply is low, it's going to be very hard to get the product.

This happened with the PS5.

the PlayStation, they did raise the prices when it first came out.

Now the opposite happens when supply is high but demand is low right?

Companies have a ton of inventory and they want to get rid of that inventory as soon as they can because remember, inventory on the shelf companies is cash.

So we don't want our money just tied up on the shelves.

If we can sell it, we're going to mark it down, mark it down, mark it down until people actually start buying it because we have too much inventory.

So when supply is high and demand is low, That is when you have decreases in prices and price drops

and advertisement for things because companies are trying to get rid of inventory.

So it starts with customer demand and capacity to meet that demand.

How much are the consumers like you and I are asking for of this particular product?

based on consumer demand and the past data that we have, based on consumer consumption, what they've already purchased before, right?

Last year, previous year, last six months, however you wanna run it.

Now we can take both of those data points and determine what the forecast should be.

Now that we have numbers, legitimate numbers, we can move into our planning phase, right?

We're gonna produce this much, at this time and we're going to sell it at this price.

And then we may increase or decrease that Based on.. past experiences, as well as customer demand.

The reason customer demand is always important is because sometimes there are trends

that are taking place in the marketplace that last year's data will not capture.

And because of that, we always have to stay abreast to what's going on in the current industry

or the environment so that we can factor that into our forecast.

And then the last piece of that is when you begin to schedule things for production.

Thank you.

Right, because you can plan, you could forecast based on consumer demand and consumption, but your scheduling is also very important, right?

You can't just produce a ton of inventory.

It's very expensive to do and you don't want a lot of it just sitting on the shelves because one, They have a shelf life,

especially perishables or let's say bread or milk.

You can't produce a lot of that.

They have very short expiration dates.

Right.

But even computers and televisions, those products to depreciate over time. So.

Companies want to sell their inventory fast.

This is where inventory turnover comes in.

You want your product on the shelf only so long sold.

By the time it sells, you want your product right back on the shelf.

So you don't want it selling too fast.

You don't want it selling too slow.

balance of power, right?

But that is forecasting in a nutshell.

So key takeaways, forecasting is just a prediction based on past experiences, and Customer Demand.

The important thing is understanding the relationship between customer demand, forecasting, planning, and scheduling.

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本課的詞彙與口語要點

這節 C1 級別的口語課以影片“What is Forecasting in Supply Chain Management”為素材。影片中反覆出現的詞有：forecasting, demand, product, inventory, forecast。這段影片共有 72 個句子、931 個單詞可供跟讀。講話部分時長為 6:27。說話人語速平穩，每分鐘約 144 個詞，很適合跟讀。 88% 的單詞屬於英語最常用的 3,000 詞，其餘的詞建議在練習前先學一下。

影片中的重點詞彙

影片中最難的 9 個單詞，附發音和釋義：

單詞	發音	釋義
forecast 名詞	/ˈfɔːkɑːst/	預報 /預報, 預測 /預測
shelf 名詞	/ʃɛlf/	架子
prediction 名詞	/pɹɪˈdɪkʃən/	預言 /預言, 預估 /預估
nutshell 名詞	/ˈnʌt.ʃɛl/	堅果殼 /堅果殼
turnover 名詞	/ˈtɝnoʊvɚ/	零售額 /零售額, 營業額 /營業額
marketplace 名詞		草市, 市井
boil 動詞	/bɔɪ(ə)l/	煮沸, 煮
advertisement 名詞	/ˈædvɚˌtaɪzmənt/	廣告 /廣告
commodity 名詞	/kəˈmɑdəti/	商品, 貨物 /貨物

影片中出現的短語動詞

單詞	發音	釋義
come out 動詞	/ˌkʌm ˈaʊt/	出, 出來 /出來
go up 動詞		上昇 /上升, 上去

值得反覆跟讀的句子

影片中簡短而完整的句子，可以直接用在日常對話裡：

You can't just produce a ton of inventory.
You can't produce a lot of that.
You don't want it selling too slow.

影片中的語法

說話人最常用的結構，並附上影片中的原話：

結構	影片中的用法
被動語態 be + 過去分詞 — 強調發生了什麼，而不是誰做的	should be produced · could be associated · is used
現在完成時 have/has + 過去分詞 — 過去發生但與現在仍有關聯的事	you've gone · they've already purchased

需要注意的發音

說話人用了 21 次縮略和弱讀形式，例如 don't, we're, you're。請按聽到的簡短形式來說。

“sh” 和 “zh” 音: shelf /ʃɛlf/, prediction /pɹɪˈdɪkʃən/, depreciate /dəˈpriʃiˌeɪt/, expiration /ˌɛk.spɚˈeɪ̯.ʃən/, nutshell /ˈnʌt.ʃɛl/
長單詞——注意重音位置: depreciate /dəˈpriʃiˌeɪt/, expiration /ˌɛk.spɚˈeɪ̯.ʃən/, meteorologist /ˌmiːti.əˈɹɒ.lə.dʒɪst/, perishable /ˈpɛ.ɹɪ.ʃə.bəl/, advertisement /ˈædvɚˌtaɪzmənt/

中文母語者容易讀錯的音：

/v/ — 不要讀成 /w/，上齒輕觸下唇: turnover /ˈtɝnoʊvɚ/, advertisement /ˈædvɚˌtaɪzmənt/
詞尾子音 — 要讀清楚，後面不要加母音: forecast /ˈfɔːkɑːst/, shelf /ʃɛlf/, abreast /əˈbɹɛst/, depreciate /dəˈpriʃiˌeɪt/, meteorologist /ˌmiːti.əˈɹɒ.lə.dʒɪst/
/r/ 和 /l/ 的區別: meteorologist /ˌmiːti.əˈɹɒ.lə.dʒɪst/, perishable /ˈpɛ.ɹɪ.ʃə.bəl/

如何用這段影片練習

先完整聽一遍影片，不要開口，記下不認識的單詞。
用正常速度逐句跟讀，每句重複到你的節奏與說話人一致為止。
錄下自己的聲音並與原聲對比，特別注意 forecast, shelf, prediction 這類單詞。

什麼是跟讀法？

跟讀法 (Shadowing) 是一種有科學依據的語言學習技巧，最初開發用於專業口譯員的培訓，並由多語言者Alexander Arguelles博士普及。這個方法簡單而強大：您在聽英語母語原聲的同時立即大聲重複——就像是一個延遲1-2秒緊跟說話者的影子。與被動聽力或語法練習不同，跟讀法強迫您的大腦和口腔肌肉同時處理並模模擬實的講話模式。研究表明它能顯著提高發音準確性，語調，節奏，連讀，聽力理解和口語流利度——使其成為雅思口語備考和真實英語交流最有效的方法之一。

影子跟讀法: 閱讀完整分步指南 →

跟讀練習: What is Forecasting in Supply Chain Management - 通過影片學習英語口語

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