Prática de Shadowing: What is Forecasting in Supply Chain Management - Aprenda a falar inglês com vídeo
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So I'm sure you've gone to the store before and thought something would be there and it wasn't.
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And another time you went, And there was a ton Why? something called forecasting and planning.
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So forecasting, what is it?
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Forecasting is simply a prediction.
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It's a guess, an educated guess based on past experiences.
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So companies that have been producing these products year after year,
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they have a ton of data that they can use to determine what their forecast should be of how much,
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how often, how, when and how often something should be produced.
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based on a few things.
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And almost every company that has a product or service use forecasting in some aspect even if they don't call it forecasting.
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Your meteorologist or your weather person, forecast right the weather forecast they're using past data
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and instruments to determine what the forecast will be for the week
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and that data is pretty accurate at this point in the game all types of companies use
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uh forecasting uh to determine how much they will sell this year based on how much they sold last year
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or the year before any uh seasonality
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that could be associated with a product this is why you
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see valentine's day items on the shelf in mid to late january
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and you see that saint patrick's day stuff on the shelf right after valentine's day is over with
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because of forecasting and and planning, but forecasting is used in several different aspects.
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Believe it or not, when you're planning your money to pay bills and things like that, you're forecasting.
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When you're looking at Is this in the budget?
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It's an aspect of forecasting.
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But let's look at forecasting from a bit of a different perspective, because it boils down to knowing the relationship of forecasting
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and a few other variables that really determines how well a company operates
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when it comes to their supply chain or just operating efficiently.
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So first we have what we call customer demand.
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This is what happens when customer demand goes up.
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But supply is low, your prices are going to be high because you have a very hot commodity or product.
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Everybody wants it, but there's not enough of it.
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They're going to raise the prices on those things.
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One, because they can make a profit from it.
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But two, because it's in such high demand and supply is low, it's going to be very hard to get the product.
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This happened with the PS5.
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the PlayStation, they did raise the prices when it first came out.
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Now the opposite happens when supply is high but demand is low right?
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Companies have a ton of inventory and they want to get rid of that inventory as soon as they can because remember, inventory on the shelf companies is cash.
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So we don't want our money just tied up on the shelves.
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If we can sell it, we're going to mark it down, mark it down, mark it down until people actually start buying it because we have too much inventory.
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So when supply is high and demand is low, That is when you have decreases in prices and price drops
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and advertisement for things because companies are trying to get rid of inventory.
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So it starts with customer demand and capacity to meet that demand.
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How much are the consumers like you and I are asking for of this particular product?
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based on consumer demand and the past data that we have, based on consumer consumption, what they've already purchased before, right?
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Last year, previous year, last six months, however you wanna run it.
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Now we can take both of those data points and determine what the forecast should be.
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Now that we have numbers, legitimate numbers, we can move into our planning phase, right?
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We're gonna produce this much, at this time and we're going to sell it at this price.
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And then we may increase or decrease that Based on.. past experiences, as well as customer demand.
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The reason customer demand is always important is because sometimes there are trends
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that are taking place in the marketplace that last year's data will not capture.
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And because of that, we always have to stay abreast to what's going on in the current industry
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or the environment so that we can factor that into our forecast.
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And then the last piece of that is when you begin to schedule things for production.
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Thank you.
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Right, because you can plan, you could forecast based on consumer demand and consumption, but your scheduling is also very important, right?
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You can't just produce a ton of inventory.
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It's very expensive to do and you don't want a lot of it just sitting on the shelves because one, They have a shelf life,
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especially perishables or let's say bread or milk.
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You can't produce a lot of that.
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They have very short expiration dates.
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Right.
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But even computers and televisions, those products to depreciate over time. So.
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Companies want to sell their inventory fast.
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This is where inventory turnover comes in.
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You want your product on the shelf only so long sold.
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By the time it sells, you want your product right back on the shelf.
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So you don't want it selling too fast.
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You don't want it selling too slow.
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balance of power, right?
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But that is forecasting in a nutshell.
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So key takeaways, forecasting is just a prediction based on past experiences, and Customer Demand.
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The important thing is understanding the relationship between customer demand, forecasting, planning, and scheduling.
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Vocabulário e dicas de fala para esta lição
Esta aula de conversação de nível C1 usa o vídeo “What is Forecasting in Supply Chain Management”. As palavras que mais se repetem: forecasting, demand, product, inventory, forecast. Este vídeo tem 72 frases e 931 palavras para praticar shadowing. A fala dura 6:27. O falante mantém um ritmo estável de cerca de 144 palavras por minuto, confortável para o shadowing. 88% das palavras estão entre as 3.000 mais comuns do inglês; vale a pena estudar o restante antes de começar.
Vocabulário principal deste vídeo
As 13 palavras mais avançadas do vídeo, com pronúncia e significado:
| Palavra | Pronúncia | Significado |
|---|---|---|
| forecast substantivo | /ˈfɔːkɑːst/ | previsão |
| shelf substantivo | /ʃɛlf/ | prateleira, estante |
| prediction substantivo | /pɹɪˈdɪkʃən/ | predição, previsão |
| abreast advérbio | /əˈbɹɛst/ | bem informado |
| meteorologist substantivo | /ˌmiːti.əˈɹɒ.lə.dʒɪst/ | meteorologista |
| nutshell substantivo | /ˈnʌt.ʃɛl/ | casca de noz |
| perishable adjetivo | /ˈpɛ.ɹɪ.ʃə.bəl/ | perecível |
| turnover substantivo | /ˈtɝnoʊvɚ/ | movimento |
| marketplace substantivo | mercado | |
| boil verbo | /bɔɪ(ə)l/ | ferver |
| advertisement substantivo | /ˈædvɚˌtaɪzmənt/ | anúncio, publicidade |
| commodity substantivo | /kəˈmɑdəti/ | comodidade, mercadoria |
| educate verbo | /ˈɛd͡ʒ.əˌkeɪt/ | educar, instruir |
Phrasal verbs que você vai ouvir
| Palavra | Pronúncia | Significado |
|---|---|---|
| come out verbo | /ˌkʌm ˈaʊt/ | sair, partir |
| go up verbo | subir |
Frases que vale a pena repetir
Frases curtas e completas do vídeo que você pode usar na conversa do dia a dia:
- You can't just produce a ton of inventory.
- You can't produce a lot of that.
- You don't want it selling too slow.
Gramática neste vídeo
As estruturas que o falante mais usa, com as palavras exatas do vídeo:
| Estrutura | No vídeo |
|---|---|
| Present perfect have/has + particípio passado — uma ação passada que ainda importa agora | you've gone · they've already purchased |
| Voz passiva be + particípio passado — o foco está no que acontece, não em quem faz | should be produced · could be associated |
Pronúncia para ficar de olho
O falante usa 21 contrações e formas reduzidas, como don't, we're, you're. Diga-as na forma curta, do jeito que você ouve.
- Os sons de “sh” e “zh”: shelf /ʃɛlf/, prediction /pɹɪˈdɪkʃən/, depreciate /dəˈpriʃiˌeɪt/, expiration /ˌɛk.spɚˈeɪ̯.ʃən/, nutshell /ˈnʌt.ʃɛl/
- Palavras longas — acerte a sílaba tônica: depreciate /dəˈpriʃiˌeɪt/, expiration /ˌɛk.spɚˈeɪ̯.ʃən/, meteorologist /ˌmiːti.əˈɹɒ.lə.dʒɪst/, perishable /ˈpɛ.ɹɪ.ʃə.bəl/, advertisement /ˈædvɚˌtaɪzmənt/
Sons difíceis para falantes de português:
- Consoante final — sem acrescentar um “i” depois: forecast /ˈfɔːkɑːst/, abreast /əˈbɹɛst/, depreciate /dəˈpriʃiˌeɪt/, meteorologist /ˌmiːti.əˈɹɒ.lə.dʒɪst/, advertisement /ˈædvɚˌtaɪzmənt/
- /l/ final — a língua toca o céu da boca, não vira “u”: nutshell /ˈnʌt.ʃɛl/, perishable /ˈpɛ.ɹɪ.ʃə.bəl/, boil /bɔɪ(ə)l/
Como praticar com este vídeo
- Ouça o vídeo inteiro uma vez sem falar e anote as palavras que você não conhece.
- Faça shadowing frase por frase na velocidade normal, repetindo cada uma até o seu ritmo ficar igual ao do falante.
- Grave a sua voz e compare com o original, prestando atenção a palavras como forecast, shelf, prediction.
O que é a Técnica de Shadowing?
Shadowing é uma técnica de aprendizado de idiomas com base científica, originalmente desenvolvida para o treinamento de intérpretes profissionais. O método é simples, mas poderoso: você ouve áudio em inglês nativo e repete imediatamente em voz alta — como uma sombra seguindo o falante com 1-2 segundos de atraso. Pesquisas mostram melhora significativa na precisão da pronúncia, entonação, ritmo, sons conectados, compreensão auditiva e fluência na fala.