跟读练习: What is Forecasting in Supply Chain Management - 通过视频学习英语口语

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So I'm sure you've gone to the store before and thought something would be there and it wasn't.

And another time you went, And there was a ton Why? something called forecasting and planning.

So forecasting, what is it?

Forecasting is simply a prediction.

It's a guess, an educated guess based on past experiences.

So companies that have been producing these products year after year,

they have a ton of data that they can use to determine what their forecast should be of how much,

how often, how, when and how often something should be produced.

based on a few things.

And almost every company that has a product or service use forecasting in some aspect even if they don't call it forecasting.

Your meteorologist or your weather person, forecast right the weather forecast they're using past data

and instruments to determine what the forecast will be for the week

and that data is pretty accurate at this point in the game all types of companies use

uh forecasting uh to determine how much they will sell this year based on how much they sold last year

or the year before any uh seasonality

that could be associated with a product this is why you

see valentine's day items on the shelf in mid to late january

and you see that saint patrick's day stuff on the shelf right after valentine's day is over with

because of forecasting and and planning, but forecasting is used in several different aspects.

Believe it or not, when you're planning your money to pay bills and things like that, you're forecasting.

When you're looking at Is this in the budget?

It's an aspect of forecasting.

But let's look at forecasting from a bit of a different perspective, because it boils down to knowing the relationship of forecasting

and a few other variables that really determines how well a company operates

when it comes to their supply chain or just operating efficiently.

So first we have what we call customer demand.

This is what happens when customer demand goes up.

But supply is low, your prices are going to be high because you have a very hot commodity or product.

Everybody wants it, but there's not enough of it.

They're going to raise the prices on those things.

One, because they can make a profit from it.

But two, because it's in such high demand and supply is low, it's going to be very hard to get the product.

This happened with the PS5.

the PlayStation, they did raise the prices when it first came out.

Now the opposite happens when supply is high but demand is low right?

Companies have a ton of inventory and they want to get rid of that inventory as soon as they can because remember, inventory on the shelf companies is cash.

So we don't want our money just tied up on the shelves.

If we can sell it, we're going to mark it down, mark it down, mark it down until people actually start buying it because we have too much inventory.

So when supply is high and demand is low, That is when you have decreases in prices and price drops

and advertisement for things because companies are trying to get rid of inventory.

So it starts with customer demand and capacity to meet that demand.

How much are the consumers like you and I are asking for of this particular product?

based on consumer demand and the past data that we have, based on consumer consumption, what they've already purchased before, right?

Last year, previous year, last six months, however you wanna run it.

Now we can take both of those data points and determine what the forecast should be.

Now that we have numbers, legitimate numbers, we can move into our planning phase, right?

We're gonna produce this much, at this time and we're going to sell it at this price.

And then we may increase or decrease that Based on.. past experiences, as well as customer demand.

The reason customer demand is always important is because sometimes there are trends

that are taking place in the marketplace that last year's data will not capture.

And because of that, we always have to stay abreast to what's going on in the current industry

or the environment so that we can factor that into our forecast.

And then the last piece of that is when you begin to schedule things for production.

Thank you.

Right, because you can plan, you could forecast based on consumer demand and consumption, but your scheduling is also very important, right?

You can't just produce a ton of inventory.

It's very expensive to do and you don't want a lot of it just sitting on the shelves because one, They have a shelf life,

especially perishables or let's say bread or milk.

You can't produce a lot of that.

They have very short expiration dates.

Right.

But even computers and televisions, those products to depreciate over time. So.

Companies want to sell their inventory fast.

This is where inventory turnover comes in.

You want your product on the shelf only so long sold.

By the time it sells, you want your product right back on the shelf.

So you don't want it selling too fast.

You don't want it selling too slow.

balance of power, right?

But that is forecasting in a nutshell.

So key takeaways, forecasting is just a prediction based on past experiences, and Customer Demand.

The important thing is understanding the relationship between customer demand, forecasting, planning, and scheduling.

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本课的词汇与口语要点

这节 C1 级别的口语课以视频“What is Forecasting in Supply Chain Management”为素材。视频中反复出现的词有：forecasting, demand, product, inventory, forecast。这段视频共有 72 个句子、931 个单词可供跟读。讲话部分时长为 6:27。说话人语速平稳，每分钟约 144 个词，很适合跟读。 88% 的单词属于英语最常用的 3,000 词，其余的词建议在练习前先学一下。

视频中的重点词汇

视频中最难的 9 个单词，附发音和释义：

单词	发音	释义
forecast 名词	/ˈfɔːkɑːst/	預報 /预报, 預測 /预测
shelf 名词	/ʃɛlf/	架子
prediction 名词	/pɹɪˈdɪkʃən/	預言 /预言, 預估 /预估
nutshell 名词	/ˈnʌt.ʃɛl/	堅果殼 /坚果壳
turnover 名词	/ˈtɝnoʊvɚ/	零售額 /零售额, 營業額 /营业额
marketplace 名词		草市, 市井
boil 动词	/bɔɪ(ə)l/	煮沸, 煮
advertisement 名词	/ˈædvɚˌtaɪzmənt/	廣告 /广告
commodity 名词	/kəˈmɑdəti/	商品, 貨物 /货物

视频中出现的短语动词

单词	发音	释义
come out 动词	/ˌkʌm ˈaʊt/	出, 出來 /出来
go up 动词		上昇 /上升, 上去

值得反复跟读的句子

视频中简短而完整的句子，可以直接用在日常对话里：

You can't just produce a ton of inventory.
You can't produce a lot of that.
You don't want it selling too slow.

视频中的语法

说话人最常用的结构，并附上视频中的原话：

结构	视频中的用法
现在完成时 have/has + 过去分词 — 过去发生但与现在仍有关联的事	you've gone · they've already purchased
被动语态 be + 过去分词 — 强调发生了什么，而不是谁做的	should be produced · could be associated

需要注意的发音

说话人用了 21 次缩略和弱读形式，例如 don't, we're, you're。请按听到的简短形式来说。

“sh” 和 “zh” 音: shelf /ʃɛlf/, prediction /pɹɪˈdɪkʃən/, depreciate /dəˈpriʃiˌeɪt/, expiration /ˌɛk.spɚˈeɪ̯.ʃən/, nutshell /ˈnʌt.ʃɛl/
长单词——注意重音位置: depreciate /dəˈpriʃiˌeɪt/, expiration /ˌɛk.spɚˈeɪ̯.ʃən/, meteorologist /ˌmiːti.əˈɹɒ.lə.dʒɪst/, perishable /ˈpɛ.ɹɪ.ʃə.bəl/, advertisement /ˈædvɚˌtaɪzmənt/

中文母语者容易读错的音：

/v/ — 不要读成 /w/，上齿轻触下唇: turnover /ˈtɝnoʊvɚ/, advertisement /ˈædvɚˌtaɪzmənt/
词尾辅音 — 要读清楚，后面不要加元音: forecast /ˈfɔːkɑːst/, shelf /ʃɛlf/, abreast /əˈbɹɛst/, depreciate /dəˈpriʃiˌeɪt/, meteorologist /ˌmiːti.əˈɹɒ.lə.dʒɪst/
/r/ 和 /l/ 的区别: meteorologist /ˌmiːti.əˈɹɒ.lə.dʒɪst/, perishable /ˈpɛ.ɹɪ.ʃə.bəl/

如何用这段视频练习

先完整听一遍视频，不要开口，记下不认识的单词。
用正常速度逐句跟读，每句重复到你的节奏与说话人一致为止。
录下自己的声音并与原声对比，特别注意 forecast, shelf, prediction 这类单词。

什么是跟读法？

跟读法 (Shadowing) 是一种有科学依据的语言学习技巧，最初开发用于专业口译员的培训，并由多语言者Alexander Arguelles博士普及。这个方法简单而强大：您在听英语母语原声的同时立即大声重复——就像是一个延迟1-2秒紧跟说话者的影子。与被动听力或语法练习不同，跟读法强迫您的大脑和口腔肌肉同时处理并模仿真实的讲话模式。研究表明它能显着提高发音准确性，语调，节奏，连读，听力理解和口语流利度——使其成为雅思口语备考和真实英语交流最有效的方法之一。

影子跟读法: 阅读完整分步指南 →

跟读练习: What is Forecasting in Supply Chain Management - 通过视频学习英语口语

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