Pratica di Shadowing: What is Forecasting in Supply Chain Management - Impara a parlare inglese con i video
Creazione lezione...
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So I'm sure you've gone to the store before and thought something would be there and it wasn't.
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And another time you went, And there was a ton Why? something called forecasting and planning.
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So forecasting, what is it?
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Forecasting is simply a prediction.
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It's a guess, an educated guess based on past experiences.
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So companies that have been producing these products year after year,
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they have a ton of data that they can use to determine what their forecast should be of how much,
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how often, how, when and how often something should be produced.
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based on a few things.
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And almost every company that has a product or service use forecasting in some aspect even if they don't call it forecasting.
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Your meteorologist or your weather person, forecast right the weather forecast they're using past data
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and instruments to determine what the forecast will be for the week
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and that data is pretty accurate at this point in the game all types of companies use
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uh forecasting uh to determine how much they will sell this year based on how much they sold last year
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or the year before any uh seasonality
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that could be associated with a product this is why you
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see valentine's day items on the shelf in mid to late january
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and you see that saint patrick's day stuff on the shelf right after valentine's day is over with
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because of forecasting and and planning, but forecasting is used in several different aspects.
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Believe it or not, when you're planning your money to pay bills and things like that, you're forecasting.
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When you're looking at Is this in the budget?
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It's an aspect of forecasting.
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But let's look at forecasting from a bit of a different perspective, because it boils down to knowing the relationship of forecasting
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and a few other variables that really determines how well a company operates
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when it comes to their supply chain or just operating efficiently.
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So first we have what we call customer demand.
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This is what happens when customer demand goes up.
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But supply is low, your prices are going to be high because you have a very hot commodity or product.
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Everybody wants it, but there's not enough of it.
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They're going to raise the prices on those things.
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One, because they can make a profit from it.
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But two, because it's in such high demand and supply is low, it's going to be very hard to get the product.
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This happened with the PS5.
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the PlayStation, they did raise the prices when it first came out.
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Now the opposite happens when supply is high but demand is low right?
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Companies have a ton of inventory and they want to get rid of that inventory as soon as they can because remember, inventory on the shelf companies is cash.
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So we don't want our money just tied up on the shelves.
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If we can sell it, we're going to mark it down, mark it down, mark it down until people actually start buying it because we have too much inventory.
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So when supply is high and demand is low, That is when you have decreases in prices and price drops
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and advertisement for things because companies are trying to get rid of inventory.
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So it starts with customer demand and capacity to meet that demand.
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How much are the consumers like you and I are asking for of this particular product?
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based on consumer demand and the past data that we have, based on consumer consumption, what they've already purchased before, right?
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Last year, previous year, last six months, however you wanna run it.
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Now we can take both of those data points and determine what the forecast should be.
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Now that we have numbers, legitimate numbers, we can move into our planning phase, right?
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We're gonna produce this much, at this time and we're going to sell it at this price.
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And then we may increase or decrease that Based on.. past experiences, as well as customer demand.
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The reason customer demand is always important is because sometimes there are trends
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that are taking place in the marketplace that last year's data will not capture.
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And because of that, we always have to stay abreast to what's going on in the current industry
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or the environment so that we can factor that into our forecast.
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And then the last piece of that is when you begin to schedule things for production.
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Thank you.
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Right, because you can plan, you could forecast based on consumer demand and consumption, but your scheduling is also very important, right?
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You can't just produce a ton of inventory.
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It's very expensive to do and you don't want a lot of it just sitting on the shelves because one, They have a shelf life,
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especially perishables or let's say bread or milk.
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You can't produce a lot of that.
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They have very short expiration dates.
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Right.
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But even computers and televisions, those products to depreciate over time. So.
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Companies want to sell their inventory fast.
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This is where inventory turnover comes in.
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You want your product on the shelf only so long sold.
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By the time it sells, you want your product right back on the shelf.
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So you don't want it selling too fast.
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You don't want it selling too slow.
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balance of power, right?
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But that is forecasting in a nutshell.
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So key takeaways, forecasting is just a prediction based on past experiences, and Customer Demand.
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The important thing is understanding the relationship between customer demand, forecasting, planning, and scheduling.
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Vocabolario e note di pronuncia per questa lezione
Questa lezione di conversazione di livello C1 si basa sul video “What is Forecasting in Supply Chain Management”. Le parole che ritornano più spesso: forecasting, demand, product, inventory, forecast. Questo video contiene 72 frasi e 931 parole da ripetere con lo shadowing. Il parlato dura 6:27. Chi parla mantiene un ritmo costante di circa 144 parole al minuto, comodo per lo shadowing. Il 88% delle parole rientra nelle 3.000 più comuni dell’inglese; conviene studiare le altre prima di iniziare.
Vocaboli chiave di questo video
Le 15 parole più avanzate del video, con pronuncia e significato:
| Parola | Pronuncia | Significato |
|---|---|---|
| forecast sostantivo | /ˈfɔːkɑːst/ | previsione |
| shelf sostantivo | /ʃɛlf/ | scaffale, mensola |
| prediction sostantivo | /pɹɪˈdɪkʃən/ | predizione, previsione |
| abreast avverbio | /əˈbɹɛst/ | aggiornato, al passo |
| depreciate verbo | /dəˈpriʃiˌeɪt/ | deprezzare |
| expiration sostantivo | /ˌɛk.spɚˈeɪ̯.ʃən/ | respirazione |
| meteorologist sostantivo | /ˌmiːti.əˈɹɒ.lə.dʒɪst/ | meteorologo |
| nutshell sostantivo | /ˈnʌt.ʃɛl/ | guscio di noce |
| perishable aggettivo | /ˈpɛ.ɹɪ.ʃə.bəl/ | deperibile |
| takeaway sostantivo | /ˈteɪkəweɪ/ | da asporto, da portare via |
| turnover sostantivo | /ˈtɝnoʊvɚ/ | giro d'affari |
| efficiently avverbio | efficientemente | |
| marketplace sostantivo | mercato | |
| boil verbo | /bɔɪ(ə)l/ | far bollire |
| advertisement sostantivo | /ˈædvɚˌtaɪzmənt/ | pubblicità, annuncio |
I phrasal verb che sentirai
| Parola | Significato |
|---|---|
| go up verbo | salire |
Frasi da ripetere
Frasi brevi e complete del video che puoi riutilizzare nella conversazione di tutti i giorni:
- You can't just produce a ton of inventory.
- You can't produce a lot of that.
- You don't want it selling too slow.
La grammatica di questo video
Le strutture che chi parla usa di più, con le parole esatte del video:
| Struttura | Nel video |
|---|---|
| Present perfect have/has + participio passato — un’azione passata che conta ancora adesso | you've gone · they've already purchased |
| Forma passiva be + participio passato — conta ciò che accade, non chi lo fa | should be produced · could be associated |
Pronuncia a cui fare attenzione
Chi parla usa 21 contrazioni e forme ridotte, come don't, we're, you're. Pronunciale nella forma breve, così come le senti.
- I suoni “sh” e “zh”: shelf /ʃɛlf/, prediction /pɹɪˈdɪkʃən/, depreciate /dəˈpriʃiˌeɪt/, expiration /ˌɛk.spɚˈeɪ̯.ʃən/, nutshell /ˈnʌt.ʃɛl/
- Parole lunghe — attenzione all’accento: depreciate /dəˈpriʃiˌeɪt/, expiration /ˌɛk.spɚˈeɪ̯.ʃən/, meteorologist /ˌmiːti.əˈɹɒ.lə.dʒɪst/, perishable /ˈpɛ.ɹɪ.ʃə.bəl/, advertisement /ˈædvɚˌtaɪzmənt/
I suoni difficili per chi parla italiano:
- Consonante finale — senza aggiungere una vocale dopo: forecast /ˈfɔːkɑːst/, shelf /ʃɛlf/, abreast /əˈbɹɛst/, depreciate /dəˈpriʃiˌeɪt/, meteorologist /ˌmiːti.əˈɹɒ.lə.dʒɪst/
Come esercitarsi con questo video
- Ascolta tutto il video una volta senza parlare e annota le parole che non conosci.
- Fai shadowing frase per frase a velocità normale, ripetendo ognuna finché il tuo ritmo coincide con quello di chi parla.
- Registrati e confronta con l’originale, facendo attenzione a parole come forecast, shelf, prediction.
Cos'è la tecnica dello Shadowing?
Shadowing è una tecnica di apprendimento delle lingue supportata da studi scientifici, originariamente sviluppata per la formazione dei traduttori professionisti e resa popolare dal poliglotta Dr. Alexander Arguelles. Il metodo è semplice ma potente: ascolti un audio in inglese di madrelingua e lo ripeti immediatamente ad alta voce — come un'ombra che segue il parlante con un ritardo di solo 1–2 secondi. A differenza dell'ascolto passivo o degli esercizi di grammatica, lo shadowing costringe il tuo cervello e i muscoli della bocca a elaborare e riprodurre simultaneamente i modelli di discorso reale. La ricerca dimostra che migliora significativamente la precisione della pronuncia, l'intonazione, il ritmo, il discorso connesso, la comprensione dell'ascolto e la fluidità del parlato — rendendolo uno dei metodi più efficaci per la preparazione alla prova di speaking dell'IELTS e per la comunicazione reale in inglese.