Практика Shadowing: What is Forecasting in Supply Chain Management - Изучайте разговорный английский по видео
Создание урока...
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So I'm sure you've gone to the store before and thought something would be there and it wasn't.
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And another time you went, And there was a ton Why? something called forecasting and planning.
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So forecasting, what is it?
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Forecasting is simply a prediction.
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It's a guess, an educated guess based on past experiences.
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So companies that have been producing these products year after year,
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they have a ton of data that they can use to determine what their forecast should be of how much,
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how often, how, when and how often something should be produced.
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based on a few things.
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And almost every company that has a product or service use forecasting in some aspect even if they don't call it forecasting.
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Your meteorologist or your weather person, forecast right the weather forecast they're using past data
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and instruments to determine what the forecast will be for the week
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and that data is pretty accurate at this point in the game all types of companies use
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uh forecasting uh to determine how much they will sell this year based on how much they sold last year
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or the year before any uh seasonality
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that could be associated with a product this is why you
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see valentine's day items on the shelf in mid to late january
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and you see that saint patrick's day stuff on the shelf right after valentine's day is over with
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because of forecasting and and planning, but forecasting is used in several different aspects.
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Believe it or not, when you're planning your money to pay bills and things like that, you're forecasting.
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When you're looking at Is this in the budget?
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It's an aspect of forecasting.
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But let's look at forecasting from a bit of a different perspective, because it boils down to knowing the relationship of forecasting
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and a few other variables that really determines how well a company operates
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when it comes to their supply chain or just operating efficiently.
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So first we have what we call customer demand.
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This is what happens when customer demand goes up.
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But supply is low, your prices are going to be high because you have a very hot commodity or product.
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Everybody wants it, but there's not enough of it.
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They're going to raise the prices on those things.
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One, because they can make a profit from it.
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But two, because it's in such high demand and supply is low, it's going to be very hard to get the product.
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This happened with the PS5.
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the PlayStation, they did raise the prices when it first came out.
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Now the opposite happens when supply is high but demand is low right?
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Companies have a ton of inventory and they want to get rid of that inventory as soon as they can because remember, inventory on the shelf companies is cash.
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So we don't want our money just tied up on the shelves.
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If we can sell it, we're going to mark it down, mark it down, mark it down until people actually start buying it because we have too much inventory.
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So when supply is high and demand is low, That is when you have decreases in prices and price drops
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and advertisement for things because companies are trying to get rid of inventory.
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So it starts with customer demand and capacity to meet that demand.
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How much are the consumers like you and I are asking for of this particular product?
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based on consumer demand and the past data that we have, based on consumer consumption, what they've already purchased before, right?
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Last year, previous year, last six months, however you wanna run it.
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Now we can take both of those data points and determine what the forecast should be.
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Now that we have numbers, legitimate numbers, we can move into our planning phase, right?
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We're gonna produce this much, at this time and we're going to sell it at this price.
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And then we may increase or decrease that Based on.. past experiences, as well as customer demand.
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The reason customer demand is always important is because sometimes there are trends
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that are taking place in the marketplace that last year's data will not capture.
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And because of that, we always have to stay abreast to what's going on in the current industry
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or the environment so that we can factor that into our forecast.
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And then the last piece of that is when you begin to schedule things for production.
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Thank you.
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Right, because you can plan, you could forecast based on consumer demand and consumption, but your scheduling is also very important, right?
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You can't just produce a ton of inventory.
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It's very expensive to do and you don't want a lot of it just sitting on the shelves because one, They have a shelf life,
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especially perishables or let's say bread or milk.
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You can't produce a lot of that.
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They have very short expiration dates.
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Right.
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But even computers and televisions, those products to depreciate over time. So.
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Companies want to sell their inventory fast.
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This is where inventory turnover comes in.
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You want your product on the shelf only so long sold.
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By the time it sells, you want your product right back on the shelf.
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So you don't want it selling too fast.
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You don't want it selling too slow.
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balance of power, right?
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But that is forecasting in a nutshell.
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So key takeaways, forecasting is just a prediction based on past experiences, and Customer Demand.
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The important thing is understanding the relationship between customer demand, forecasting, planning, and scheduling.
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Лексика и советы по произношению к этому уроку
Этот урок разговорной практики уровня C1 построен на видео «What is Forecasting in Supply Chain Management». Чаще всего повторяются слова: forecasting, demand, product, inventory, forecast. В этом видео 72 предложений и 931 слов для шедоуинга. Речь длится 6:27. Говорящий держит ровный темп — около 144 слов в минуту, удобный для шедоуинга. 88% слов входят в 3000 самых частых слов английского языка; остальные стоит разобрать перед занятием.
Ключевая лексика этого видео
Самые сложные слова из видео (14), с произношением и значением:
| Слово | Произношение | Значение |
|---|---|---|
| forecast существительное | /ˈfɔːkɑːst/ | предсказа́ние, прогно́з |
| shelf существительное | /ʃɛlf/ | по́лка |
| prediction существительное | /pɹɪˈdɪkʃən/ | предсказа́ние, прогно́з |
| depreciate глагол | /dəˈpriʃiˌeɪt/ | обесценивать, обесценить |
| meteorologist существительное | /ˌmiːti.əˈɹɒ.lə.dʒɪst/ | метеоро́лог |
| nutshell существительное | /ˈnʌt.ʃɛl/ | оре́ховая скорлупа́ |
| perishable прилагательное | /ˈpɛ.ɹɪ.ʃə.bəl/ | бре́нный, тле́нный |
| turnover существительное | /ˈtɝnoʊvɚ/ | товарооборо́т, оборо́т |
| efficiently наречие | эффекти́вно | |
| marketplace существительное | ры́нок, база́р | |
| boil глагол | /bɔɪ(ə)l/ | кипяти́ть, вскипяти́ть |
| advertisement существительное | /ˈædvɚˌtaɪzmənt/ | рекла́ма, объявле́ние |
| commodity существительное | /kəˈmɑdəti/ | това́р, проду́кт |
| educate глагол | /ˈɛd͡ʒ.əˌkeɪt/ | обуча́ть, обучи́ть |
Фразовые глаголы, которые вы услышите
| Слово | Произношение | Значение |
|---|---|---|
| come out глагол | /ˌkʌm ˈaʊt/ | выходи́ть, вы́йти |
| go up глагол | поднима́ться, подня́ться |
Фразы, которые стоит повторять
Короткие законченные фразы из видео, которые пригодятся в повседневном разговоре:
- You can't just produce a ton of inventory.
- You can't produce a lot of that.
- You don't want it selling too slow.
Грамматика в этом видео
Конструкции, которые говорящий использует чаще всего, с точными словами из видео:
| Конструкция | В видео |
|---|---|
| Present Perfect have/has + причастие прошедшего времени — прошлое действие, важное сейчас | you've gone · they've already purchased |
| Пассивный залог be + причастие прошедшего времени — важно, что происходит, а не кто это делает | should be produced · could be associated |
Произношение, на которое стоит обратить внимание
Говорящий использует 21 сокращённых и редуцированных форм, например don't, we're, you're. Произносите их коротко, так, как слышите.
- Звуки «sh» и «zh»: shelf /ʃɛlf/, prediction /pɹɪˈdɪkʃən/, depreciate /dəˈpriʃiˌeɪt/, expiration /ˌɛk.spɚˈeɪ̯.ʃən/, nutshell /ˈnʌt.ʃɛl/
- Длинные слова — следите за ударением: depreciate /dəˈpriʃiˌeɪt/, expiration /ˌɛk.spɚˈeɪ̯.ʃən/, meteorologist /ˌmiːti.əˈɹɒ.lə.dʒɪst/, perishable /ˈpɛ.ɹɪ.ʃə.bəl/, advertisement /ˈædvɚˌtaɪzmənt/
Как заниматься с этим видео
- Прослушайте всё видео один раз молча и выпишите незнакомые слова.
- Повторяйте предложение за предложением на обычной скорости, пока ваш ритм не совпадёт с ритмом говорящего.
- Запишите себя и сравните с оригиналом, обращая внимание на такие слова, как forecast, shelf, prediction.
Что такое техника Shadowing?
Shadowing — это научно обоснованная техника изучения языка, изначально разработанная для подготовки профессиональных переводчиков и популяризированная полиглотом доктором Александром Аргуэльесом. Метод прост, но эффективен: вы слушаете аудио на английском от носителей языка и немедленно повторяете вслух — как тень, следующая за говорящим с задержкой в 1–2 секунды. В отличие от пассивного прослушивания или грамматических упражнений, Shadowing заставляет мозг и мышцы рта одновременно обрабатывать и воспроизводить реальные речевые паттерны. Исследования показывают, что это значительно улучшает точность произношения, интонацию, ритм, связную речь, понимание на слух и беглость речи — что делает его одним из самых эффективных методов для подготовки к IELTS Speaking и реального общения на английском.