Практика Shadowing: it’s boring, but it’s what bursts the ai bubble - Изучайте разговорный английский по видео
Создание урока...
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The single biggest threat to America isn't the national debt, it's not the Strait of Hormuz, and it's not even the AI bubble itself.
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It's energy.
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But not energy in the way you're probably thinking.
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It's not blackouts or your monthly utility bill.
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It's that America has pushed all its chips to the center of the table and bet the entire economy on one wager, that AI arrives on schedule.
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And energy is the thing that decides the schedule.
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Because right now, AI feels invincible.
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The valuations keep growing, the spending isn't slowing down, and the stock market keeps pumping.
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But if something's going to pop the AI bubble, it's energy.
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And by the end of this video, I can prove it to you.
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But first, the size of the wager.
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Because betting the economy isn't an exaggeration.
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In 2024, the biggest tech companies spent a little over $200 billion building AI infrastructure.
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In 2025, that number hit almost $400 billion.
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This year, their own estimates say more than $700 billion.
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So the spending isn't just growing, it's nearly doubling every year, and it's that spending that's carrying the economy.
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The level of concentration we're seeing in these tech stocks isn't subtle, it's practically screaming, it's a bubble.
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Last quarter AI accounted for more than half of America's real GDP growth.
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George Saravellos, head of FX research at Deutsche Bank, wrote in a message to clients, AI machines appear to be saving the US economy right now.
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In the absence of tech-related spending, the US would be close to, or in, a recession this year.
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But you probably already know all this.
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You've likely heard AI is a bubble a million times by now.
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And here's the thing about all those bubble takes.
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Every single one of them is arguing about the wrong question.
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They're arguing about whether AI is here to stay, whether it's truly going to revolutionize every industry, and whether a chatbot that can't count the letters in strawberry is maybe about to take your job.
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But that was never the right question.
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The real bet isn't whether AI works, it's actually about whether we can even physically deliver it on time.
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Whether the AI future can arrive fast enough to justify the insane prices we're paying for it today.
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Because right now, money is disappearing into AI faster than Thanos can snap his fingers.
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It's the fastest and largest build-out in history, yet nobody's actually making any money on it.
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Which is fine, for now.
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Investors will happily fund losses as long as they think a payoff is on its way.
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But eventually, the investors, the companies, and the lenders, funding all of this, need that payoff to actually show up.
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Eventually the capital has to come home with a return.
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That's how the AI bubble pops.
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It's not when it fails, but when it's late.
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When the capital starts to get sick of waiting around and decides to go somewhere else.
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So what decides whether AI shows up on time?
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And what determines whether these trillions of dollars from big tech will ever see a return on investment?
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Well, before I get into that, let's take a quick pause.
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As you've probably heard this a thousand times by now, learn AI or you'll get left behind, but nobody mentions the hard part.
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ChatGPT is good at one thing, Claude at another, Gemini something else.
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So you end up subscribed to all of them.
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At roughly $20 a month each, that's $60 a month total, or $720 a year, all just to try and keep up.
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Which brings us to the sponsor of today's video, ChatLLM by Abacus AI.
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They've solved that problem.
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Chat LLM by Abacus AI puts every top model in one place.
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GPT 5.6, Claude Fable 5, Gemini 3.1, even Grok and DeepSeek, and when a new model drops,
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it's instantly available, which means no waiting around and no new subscriptions.
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You can pick which model to use yourself, or let the Route LLM feature read your prompt and automatically pick the best model for you.
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And Chat LLM by Abacus AI goes past just chat.
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It can generate images, video, and even build full apps and websites, with hosting included, no code needed.
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The price for all this is just $10 a month, less than any single subscription it replaces.
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If you're interested, you can check out Chat LLM by Abacus AI using the link below, or in the pinned comment.
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Thank you to Abacus AI for sponsoring this video.
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Now back to the single wager our entire economy's riding on.
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This entire bet is trapped inside a race between two clocks.
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Clock one decides how fast the AI future can actually arrive, how quickly we can build it, Plug it in and turn it on.
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Clock 2 decides how long we can afford to wait for it.
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We'll get to that later because it's the scarier of the two.
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So, let's start with the first one.
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Whenever a technological breakthrough like AI shows up, Wall Street loves to hand out the same Mark Twain quote as advice.
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Don't bet on the miners.
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Invest in the picks and shovels.
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The phrase is more overused than the man in the arena
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speech in a one-bedroom San Francisco apartment with four founders vibe coding an AI app.
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What Wall Street's saying is, don't try to pick the winning chatbot.
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Just buy the stuff underneath the boom, the data centers, the power, the infrastructure.
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But here's what nobody mentions when they hand you that advice.
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America's running out of picks and shovels, because you can't just build a data center.
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A data center doesn't get electricity by plugging into the grid and asking nicely.
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It has to join something called an interconnection queue.
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That's the waitlist to get access to the power grid.
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Think of it as the DMV, but for electricity.
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Except instead of measuring the weight in bad attitudes and hours, the interconnection queue measures it in regulatory headaches and years.
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In America's largest power grid, that weight has stretched from under two years in 2008 to over 8 years today.
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And the waitlist is only where the problems start, because AI data centers don't use electricity the way an office tower does.
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Busy during the day, quiet at night, asleep on weekends.
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Data centers run full blast around the clock every day of the year.
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They already eat more than 4% of America's electricity.
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And by 2035, this number is expected to reach a fifth of the country's electricity consumption.
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And the main workhorse feeding this entire build-out is this alien-looking device, the gas turbine, which is where the problems continue.
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It's the machine behind roughly 40% of America's electricity, and they're among the most complex pieces of machinery on Earth.
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Only a handful of companies can actually build one.
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Three manufacturers control over three-quarters of the global market.
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One of them is GE Vernova.
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Its order backlog has ballooned from roughly 80 gigawatts to 116, and its own CEO says the company will be largely sold out through the end of 2028.
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And in 2024 alone, developers ordered nearly three times more turbine capacity than every factory on Earth could physically produce in a single year.
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Which means it doesn't matter how many zeros Big Tech puts on the check, the manufacturers are structurally constrained.
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But it's not just the gas turbines either.
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Transformers, which are the machines that step power down from the grid, now take over two and a half years to get with an estimated 30% supply shortage.
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And for new transmission lines, they take 6.5 years on average to complete due to permitting delays, backlogs, and a mountain of other BS.
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So it's not just a single waitlist that's backed up.
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It's the entire American energy supply chain.
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We're seeing tech move at Netflix speeds, and the infrastructure underneath it moving at the speed of blockbuster.
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Which is why the companies trapped between these two speeds are starting to act desperate.
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Two developers reportedly paid $25 million, for a turbine, just to reserve a place in line for one.
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Others are rebuilding retired jet engines to makeshift the power they need.
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We're seeing grown, profitable companies bolting old aircraft engines to the ground because they're desperate for power.
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So the obvious fix is the one you're already thinking.
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Just build more.
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Big tech is great at throwing money at problems.
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Why not throw money at the source until the clock speeds up?
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Well, we already ran that exact experiment.
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And money lost.
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Remember Remember that 8 year wait just to plug into the grid?
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It belongs to a power grid called PJM Interconnection.
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PJM is the largest grid operator in America, serving 67 million people across 13 states from Chicago to Washington DC, roughly 1 in 5 Americans.
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If you live anywhere in that footprint, your lights are on because of decisions they make,
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and PJM's biggest decision of the year happens at an event nobody watches, the capacity auction.
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Here's how it works.
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PJM doesn't just buy electricity, it buys guarantees.
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Once a year, PJM holds an auction to pay power plants to promise they'll be ready with electricity on the worst days of the year.
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It's essentially a billion dollar pinky promise that there's going to be electricity when there's a January freeze, or an August heat wave.
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You can think of it like insurance.
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They pay a premium so the grid doesn't fail when it's needed most.
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For most of this century, that insurance was dirt cheap, because American electricity demand flatlined for 20 years.
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It made the capacity auction the single most boring event in American finance.
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In the auction covering 2024, a promise of power cleared at about $29 per megawatt day.
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Then, the data centers arrived.
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Not one at a time, by the dozen.
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Buildings
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that each swallow as much electricity as a small city walking into a system designed for a world where demand barely grew.
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And the data centers don't want power eventually.
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They want it now, guaranteed, forever.
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The next auction cleared at just under $270, a more than 830% spike.
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The regional bill went from $2.2 billion to $14.7.
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The same promise, seven times the price, the biggest leap since the capacity market was invented in 2007.
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That got attention.
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Governors across the region leaned on PJM, federal regulators signed off, and the auction got a ceiling, a legal maximum on what the grid was allowed to pay.
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The very next auction hit that ceiling.
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So did the one after it, and the one after that.
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What looked like a spike turned out to be the new floor.
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Then came December 2025, and something happened that had never happened in PJM's history.
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The auction came up short.
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Each auction is built around a target reserve margin.
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It's the extra safety cushion of power supply required above expected
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peak demand to guarantee the grid can handle those worst days of the year.
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It's basically the backups in case of an emergency.
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For the first time in history, PJM went shopping with more money than ever before, and paid the maximum price allowed under federal law,
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but there still wasn't enough power supply to go around.
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And that's the physical reality of the grid.
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All that money can't summon a gas turbine, a transformer, or a transmission line out of thin air when the world's manufacturers are booked years out in advance.
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Which means the grid failed to buy what it needed and then paid full price for what it got.
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And the bill for all this doesn't just get sent to big tech, it gets sent to you.
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It flows straight into your electric bills.
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The average household in Maryland saw their electric bill rise by $21 a month, or nearly $250 per year.
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Which may not sound like a lot at first, until you remember that's just the average, for one household, in one state.
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When you remember that PJM covers 13 states and 67 million people, it's a lot.
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PJM pays an independent watchdog called Monitoring Analytics.
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They ran the numbers on the December auction and found that of the $16.4 billion the auction will cost,
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roughly $6.5 billion can be traced directly to data centers.
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Forty cents of every capacity dollar traced to data centers.
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Across the last three auctions, the number is more than $23 billion.
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So that's clock one, the power clock.
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The infrastructure can't keep up with the demand, money can't speed it up, and there's no clear path to fixing it.
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These companies just have to wait.
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Which sounds survivable.
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Annoying and expensive, but survivable.
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Because late is better than never.
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Unless the thing doing the waiting has an expiration date.
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And spoiler, it does.
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Which brings us to clock two.
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The chip clock.
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The one that determines how long we can afford to wait.
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Because those data centers are really just massive warehouses for a single product,
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semiconductor chips, specialized processors that train AI and the most expensive piece of the entire bet.
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Of the more than $700 billion a year, the biggest chunk is spent on the chips and computing hardware.
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And there are two problems with these chips.
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The first is, they don't age well.
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Think of that one grandma of yours who hasn't worn sunscreen since the 70s.
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A cutting edge AI chip stays cutting edge for somewhere between two to six years, depending on who you ask.
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Newer, faster chips arrive, and the old ones slide toward worthless.
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But the infrastructure those chips are living on lasts for decades.
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So the chips age like a smartphone, and the infrastructure ages like a bridge.
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That mismatch has a price tag.
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If a data center scales back, or its chips go obsolete after a few years, the multi-billion dollar grid equipment built to serve it stays on the utilities' books for decades,
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and a chunk of that cost gets shifted to the utilities' customers, meaning you.
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And then there's the second problem, the bigger one.
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Right now, tech companies are reporting record earnings.
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On the surface, you could maybe even say, what AI bubble?
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But Michael Burry, the investor from the movie The Big Short, thinks those record earnings are an illusion.
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He believes big tech's cooking the books, and like most things in finance, he believes it comes down to sneaky accounting.
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When a company buys a machine, it spreads the cost across the years the machine stays useful, called the useful life.
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That schedule is called depreciation.
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Stretch the useful life out, and your annual depreciation drops, making profits look bigger today.
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Shrink the years, and your annual depreciation expense rises, lowering your reported profits.
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Which means one boring accounting guess, how long does a chip stay useful, quietly determines billions in big tech earnings.
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And the problems arise when nobody agrees on the answer.
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The tech giants started extending the official useful life of their servers from a 3 or four-year standard to six years.
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Burry says the real number is much lower.
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If he's right, the industry is understating depreciation by about $176 billion between 2026 and 2028.
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By Burry's math, this would overstate Oracle's earnings by nearly 27% by 2028, and Meta's by almost 21%.
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NVIDIA fired back immediately at this.
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They said that their customers get four to six years out of these chips just fine.
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What we're watching is a classic kindergarten game of he said, she said.
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That's also what makes this interesting, because whether you side with Burry or NVIDIA doesn't actually matter, because the tech companies themselves can't agree on the answer.
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In January 2024, Amazon decided its servers would last six years instead of five.
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That single decision reduced its depreciation expense by $3.2 billion and added $2.5 billion to its profit for the year.
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Twelve months later, Amazon changed its mind.
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They walked the estimate from six years back down to five for subsets of their servers and networking equipment.
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The reason Amazon gave in the filing was the increased pace of technology development, particularly in artificial intelligence.
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And while Amazon was walking some things back, Meta went the opposite direction.
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Meta extended the life of its servers and network assets to five and a half years.
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That single change reduced its 2025 depreciation costs by $2.9 billion, and added roughly a dollar to Meta's earnings per share.
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So, same technology, same time period, two accounting departments, looking at the same silicon, and reaching opposite conclusions.
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And that's the race we have.
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There are two clocks ticking.
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One says new power infrastructure can take 5 to 10 years to build.
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The other says today's AI chips may only be economically cutting edge for 3 to 6 years, depending on who you ask, of course.
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If those clocks fall out of sync, billions of dollars of infrastructure could arrive for a very different AI market than the one companies are planning for today,
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and the race is already being timed.
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Goldman Sachs looked at how often data centers actually open on schedule.
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Historically, only about 72% of projects due within the next year showed up on time.
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When you adjust for today's supply chain and labor problems, Goldman expects about 60% of next year's promised capacity to arrive when promised look two years out,
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and it drops to 50%.
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Flip a coin, that's the current odds the AI future arrives on schedule.
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And Bloomberg's energy research arm found something even uglier.
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They ran two forecasts side by side.
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The first asks a simple question.
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Based on how many AI chips are actually being sold, how much data center capacity should America be building?
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The second asks a harder one.
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How much can America actually power?
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They found that by 2033, the gap will be 63 gigawatts apart.
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For context, every operational data center in America adds up to a little over 40 gigawatts.
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So, the gap Bloomberg found isn't a small rounding error.
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To deliver the future these companies have already paid for, America would have to find a way to power a gap half as large as every data center the country's already built.
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That took decades to build, on a grid that now has an 8-year waitlist.
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The math doesn't just look bad, the math looks impossible.
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Which brings us to the age-old question.
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How did we get here?
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How does the entire energy supply chain get this backed up?
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Well, here's the uncomfortable answer.
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It's not because AI is failing, it's because it isn't.
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The demand is painfully real.
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Everyone wants in.
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Data centers drove roughly half of America's electricity demand growth last year.
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The line for power is measured in years because everyone showed up at once.
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If you've seen my previous videos, it's the flood stage of the capital cycle.
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Success is what broke the grid.
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And the chips?
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How does the most expensive hardware on Earth expire so fast?
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Again, not because AI stalled, because it didn't.
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Every new generation of chips buries the one before it.
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The technology is moving so fast that its own products can't hold their value.
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Success is what kills the chips.
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So the better AI does, the more demand floods the grid and the longer clock one takes.
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The faster AI improves, the quicker the hardware goes stale and the shorter clock two gets.
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Success winds both clocks against each other.
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Now if you'd rather get your financial news from people yelling about earnings beats, No hard feelings.
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But if you want the deeper stuff, the stuff buried in government reports and depreciation schedules, hit subscribe.
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Because it's those boring documents where the real stories actually live.
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Лексика и советы по произношению к этому уроку
Этот урок разговорной практики уровня B2 построен на видео «it’s boring, but it’s what bursts the ai bubble». Чаще всего повторяются слова: chip, center, grid, billion, clock. В этом видео 252 предложений и 3242 слов для шедоуинга. Речь длится 17:51. Говорящий говорит быстро, около 182 слов в минуту, поэтому звуки часто сливаются и сокращаются. Только 80% слов входят в 3000 самых частых слов английского языка, поэтому лексика сложная.
Ключевая лексика этого видео
Самые сложные слова из видео (15), с произношением и значением:
| Слово | Произношение | Значение |
|---|---|---|
| grid существительное | /ɡɹɪd/ | се́тка, решётка |
| depreciation существительное | /dɪˌpɹiːʃɪˈeɪʃən/ | амортиза́ция, обесце́нивание |
| bubble существительное | /ˈbʌbəl/ | пузы́рь |
| turbine существительное | /ˈtɜː.baɪn/ | турби́на |
| gigawatt существительное | /ˈɡɪɡəˌwɒt/ | гигава́тт |
| bore глагол | /boɹ/ | надоеда́ть, надое́сть |
| investor существительное | /ɪnˈvɛs.tə(ɹ)/ | инве́стор, вкла́дчик |
| mathematics существительное | /mæθ(.ə)ˈmæt.ɪks/ | матема́тика |
| chatbot существительное | /ˈtʃætbɑt/ | чат-бо́т |
| shovel существительное | /ˈʃʌv.əl/ | лопа́та |
| chunk существительное | /t͡ʃʌŋk/ | кусо́к |
| queue существительное | /kju/ | о́чередь |
| spike существительное | /spaɪk/ | штырь, косты́ль |
| plug существительное | /plʌɡ/ | ште́псельная ви́лка, ште́псель |
| ceiling существительное | /ˈsilɪŋ/ | потоло́к |
Фразовые глаголы, которые вы услышите
| Слово | Значение |
|---|---|
| back up глагол | дава́ть за́дний ход |
| show up глагол | объявля́ться, объяви́ться |
| check out глагол | проверя́ть, прове́рить |
| come down to глагол | спадать до |
| come up глагол | поднима́ться, подня́ться |
| end up глагол | зака́нчиваться, зако́нчиться |
| go past глагол | переходи́ть, перейти́ |
| hand out глагол | раздава́ть, разда́ть |
Грамматика в этом видео
Конструкции, которые говорящий использует чаще всего, с точными словами из видео:
| Конструкция | В видео |
|---|---|
| Пассивный залог be + причастие прошедшего времени — важно, что происходит, а не кто это делает | is trapped · is expected · was invented |
| Present Perfect have/has + причастие прошедшего времени — прошлое действие, важное сейчас | has pushed · you've probably heard · They've solved |
| Придаточные определительные who / which + предложение — уточнение о человеке или предмете | available, which means · turbine, which is · Transformers, which are |
Произношение, на которое стоит обратить внимание
Говорящий использует 49 сокращённых и редуцированных форм, например isn't, can't, doesn't. Произносите их коротко, так, как слышите.
- Звуки «th»: mathematics /mæθ(.ə)ˈmæt.ɪks/, underneath /ˌʌndɚˈniθ/, breakthrough /ˈbɹeɪk.θɹuː/
- Звуки «sh» и «zh»: depreciation /dɪˌpɹiːʃɪˈeɪʃən/, interconnection /ˌɪn.tɚ.kəˈnɛk.ʃən/, shovel /ˈʃʌv.əl/, specialize /ˈspɛʃəˌlaɪz/, recession /ɹɪˈsɛʃn̩/
- Длинные слова — следите за ударением: depreciation /dɪˌpɹiːʃɪˈeɪʃən/, interconnection /ˌɪn.tɚ.kəˈnɛk.ʃən/, mathematics /mæθ(.ə)ˈmæt.ɪks/, developer /dɪˈvɛləpɚ/, machinery /məˈʃiːnəɹi/
Звуки, трудные для русскоязычных:
- /w/ — губы округлены, это не /v/: waitlist /ˈweɪtˌlɪst/, gigawatt /ˈɡɪɡəˌwɒt/, swallow /ˈswɑ.loʊ/, quietly /ˈkwaɪ.ɪt.li/
- /h/ — лёгкий выдох, а не русское «х»: historically /hɪˈstɔɹɪkli/, happily /ˈhæp.ə.li/, handful /ˈhæn(d)fʊl/
- Звонкие согласные в конце слова — не оглушайте их: grid /ɡɹɪd/, plug /plʌɡ/, specialize /ˈspɛʃəˌlaɪz/, shortage /ˈʃɔː(ɹ)tɪd͡ʒ/, arise /əˈɹaɪz/
Как заниматься с этим видео
- Прослушайте всё видео один раз молча и выпишите незнакомые слова.
- Начните со скорости 0,75×, повторяйте предложение за предложением и вернитесь к обычной скорости, когда станет легко.
- Запишите себя и сравните с оригиналом, обращая внимание на такие слова, как grid, depreciation, bubble.
Что такое техника Shadowing?
Shadowing — это научно обоснованная техника изучения языка, изначально разработанная для подготовки профессиональных переводчиков и популяризированная полиглотом доктором Александром Аргуэльесом. Метод прост, но эффективен: вы слушаете аудио на английском от носителей языка и немедленно повторяете вслух — как тень, следующая за говорящим с задержкой в 1–2 секунды. В отличие от пассивного прослушивания или грамматических упражнений, Shadowing заставляет мозг и мышцы рта одновременно обрабатывать и воспроизводить реальные речевые паттерны. Исследования показывают, что это значительно улучшает точность произношения, интонацию, ритм, связную речь, понимание на слух и беглость речи — что делает его одним из самых эффективных методов для подготовки к IELTS Speaking и реального общения на английском.