跟读练习: Why China's population is shrinking - 通过视频学习英语口语

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This chart shows

China's birth and death rate over the last 60 years.

For most of it, births are high.

But in 2022, China had more deaths than births, causing its population to decrease for the first time in six decades.

To get why this is such a big deal, consider this.

China is the world's manufacturing superpower, and that's in large part because of its huge population.

Nearly 30 % of the country's economic output comes from manufacturing.

Now here's China's population over the last 60 years.

Even after losing almost a million people in 2022, its population is still about as big as it's ever been — 1 .4 billion people.

But that's projected to shrink by nearly half by the end of the century.

Over the years, China's growth and policies have contributed to its population decline.

Today, it's looking to reverse course, to keep its population steady.

The problem is, it might be too late.

In the 50s under Mao, China experienced one of the most gruesome famines on record.

30 million people died.

If we look at that on the birth and death rates chart, you'll see a big spike in deaths.

At the same time, the birth rate dropped, causing the population to shrink.

But as often happens with wars, famines and other major crises, immediately after, there was a baby boom.

Combined with global medical advances that decreased infant mortality rates, China's average family now had six children.

The birth rate had skyrocketed, which the government saw as a big problem.

The Chinese leadership realized the population was growing too fast and something needs to be done.

The government came out with a policy.

They called it later, longer, fewer.

Later marriages, longer birth intervals, and fewer births.

As a result, China's birth rate started trending down.

But it wasn't low enough for China's leaders.

And in 1980, they implemented the extreme one -child policy, which limited most families to one child.

That policy was also backed up by very harsh measures.

There were campaigns of sterilization, IOD insertion, and induced abortions.

And while these campaigns began during the later longer -fewer era, they were at their worst under the one -child policy,

when China sterilized 20 million men and women and induced nearly 15 million abortions in a single year.

But China had accomplished its goal.

Population growth was under control.

Except, as China would soon realize, these restrictive policies worked a little too well.

In order for any population to stay the same size in the long run, each couple needs to have, on average, 2 .1 children.

This is called the replacement rate.

The idea is that one child replaces one parent, and that 0 .1 makes up for children who die before they become adults.

But China has had a fertility rate that's far below two for over three decades.

To bring that up, in 2016, China finally ended the one -child policy.

And after briefly trying out a three -child policy, in 2021, they finally let families have as many children as they'd like.

But it hasn't worked.

One big reason is the unique family structure produced by the one -child policy.

We're looking at what's called a 4 -to -1 family structure with a couple having four parents above them

and one child below.

Most countries have diverse family structures, some with three kids, others with none.

But with China's 4 -to -1 model, millions of only children are under increasing pressure to care for their aging parents and elderly grandparents.

And this can make having multiple children even harder, especially as the cost of living keeps rising.

A recent survey revealed

that more than 50 % of young people don't want more than one child because of financial and work pressures.

We've seen cash subsidies for additional birth, longer maternal leaves, subsidizes for kindergarten,

and all sorts of monetary support.

Well, the thing is, almost none of them has worked because having a child is exceedingly expensive and it's a lifelong commitment.

And so it's not — it's really actually hard to put a price on this.

But China's population crisis isn't just about babies.

It's also about the balance between young and old.

If we look at population pyramids that show distribution by age, we see that countries like Kenya, with rapid population growth, look like this.

Wide at the bottom, representing a lot of new young people, and narrow at the top.

Countries experiencing slower growth, like the Philippines, are still triangular, but the difference between top and bottom is less pronounced.

Now take a look at China and notice the narrow bottom, so fewer babies, and the heavy top, a larger number of elderly people.

Which is happy.

outcome of our improvement in health and in standard of living,

but combined with sustained low fertility and that just produces sustained population aging.

In 2050, that pyramid is projected to look like this.

And that will further drive down

China's population, shrink its labor force, and put the whole country in a uniquely difficult position.

In the 80s, China became a hotspot for foreign investment, cheap manufacturing and exports.

A generation later, it was shooting up the ranks and becoming one of the world's leading and fastest growing economies by GDP.

But not only did that economic modernization drive birth rates down further, it also didn't translate to an equally strong economy for everyone.

If we look at the GDP per capita, the best indicator we have for standard of living, China is much lower than these high -income countries.

China became a major world economy nearly overnight, but it's still a middle -income country.

Many, especially in rural areas, haven't benefited much from China's economic boom.

And China has yet to develop the necessary safety nets to support its aging population.

To build the social infrastructure,

like the social programs in health care and in pension, It takes time.

And that's getting actually tougher with the economy that's slowing down.

And a slower economy will inevitably redefine

China's role in the world as a manufacturing superpower.

What this means for China,

for the world, is that the resource constraints from within would also constrain the Chinese ambition and its global reach.

In some ways, China isn't alone.

A lot of Asian and European countries are experiencing population declines, too.

What makes China different is how fast this all has happened.

It was only 40 years ago that

China started leveraging its booming population to become an economic superpower, all while still trying to stem population growth.

Now that China's population growth is officially over, China may have to rethink its future, not just as a global superpower,

but for its citizens at home, too.

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本课的词汇与口语要点

这节口语课以视频“Why China's population is shrinking”为素材。视频中反复出现的词有：population, China, birth, rate, policy。这段视频共有 87 个句子、1091 个单词可供跟读。讲话部分时长为 7:22。说话人语速平稳，每分钟约 148 个词，很适合跟读。 85% 的单词属于英语最常用的 3,000 词，其余的词建议在练习前先学一下。

视频中的重点词汇

视频中 15 个值得学习的单词，附发音和释义：

单词	发音	释义
fewer	/ˈfjuː.ɚ/	較少 /较少, 更少
chart 名词	/t͡ʃɑɹt/	圖表 /图表
decline 动词	/dɪˈklaɪn/	惡化 /恶化
narrow 形容词	/ˈnæɹəʊ/	窄
abortion 名词	/əˈbɔɹ.ʃn̩/	流產 /流产, 人工流產 /人工流产
decrease 动词	/dɪˈkɹiːs/	減少 /减少, 下降
elderly 形容词	/ˈɛldɚli/	老
combine 动词	/kəmˈbaɪn/	結合 /结合, 組合 /组合
sustain 动词	/səˈsteɪn/	维持
fertility 名词	/fɝˈtɪləti/	肥沃, 繁殖力
pyramid 名词	/ˈpɪɹ.ə.mɪd/	金字塔
famine 名词	/ˈfæm.ɪn/	饑荒 /饥荒
subsidy 名词	/ˈsʌbsɪdi/	津貼 /津贴, 補貼 /补贴
infrastructure 名词	/ˈɪnfɹəˌstɹʌkt͡ʃə/	基礎設施 /基础设施
commitment 名词	/kəˈmɪtmənt/	承諾 /承诺

视频中出现的短语动词

单词	释义
slow down 动词	減速 /减速, 放慢
try out 动词	試用 /试用

视频中的语法

说话人最常用的结构，并附上视频中的原话：

结构	视频中的用法
现在完成时 have/has + 过去分词 — 过去发生但与现在仍有关联的事	it's ever been · have contributed · has had
被动语态 be + 过去分词 — 强调发生了什么，而不是谁做的	be done · was also backed · is called

需要注意的发音

说话人用了 10 次缩略和弱读形式，例如 isn't, didn't, don't。请按听到的简短形式来说。

“sh” 和 “zh” 音: abortion /əˈbɔɹ.ʃn̩/, pension /ˈpɛnʃən/, harsh /ˈhɑɹʃ/, accomplish /əˈkɑm.plɪʃ/, ambition /æmˈbɪʃ.ən/
长单词——注意重音位置: fertility /fɝˈtɪləti/, infrastructure /ˈɪnfɹəˌstɹʌkt͡ʃə/, monetary /ˈmʌnɪtəɹi/, indicator /ˈɪn.dɪˌkeɪ.tə(ɹ)/, inevitably /ɪˈnɛvɪtəbli/

中文母语者容易读错的音：

/v/ — 不要读成 /w/，上齿轻触下唇: reveal /ɹɪˈviːl/, reverse /ɹɪˈvɝs/, diverse /daɪˈvɜːs/, overnight /əʊvə(ɹ)ˈnaɪt/, inevitably /ɪˈnɛvɪtəbli/
词尾辅音 — 要读清楚，后面不要加元音: chart /t͡ʃɑɹt/, decrease /dɪˈkɹiːs/, pyramid /ˈpɪɹ.ə.mɪd/, induce /ɪnˈduːs/, rank /ˈɹæŋk/
/r/ 和 /l/ 的区别: replacement /ɹɪˈpleɪsmənt/, reveal /ɹɪˈviːl/, briefly /ˈbɹiːfli/, translate /tɹænzˈleɪt/, mortality /mɔɹˈtælɪti/

如何用这段视频练习

先完整听一遍视频，不要开口，记下不认识的单词。
用正常速度逐句跟读，每句重复到你的节奏与说话人一致为止。
录下自己的声音并与原声对比，特别注意 fewer, chart, decline 这类单词。

什么是跟读法？

跟读法 (Shadowing) 是一种有科学依据的语言学习技巧，最初开发用于专业口译员的培训，并由多语言者Alexander Arguelles博士普及。这个方法简单而强大：您在听英语母语原声的同时立即大声重复——就像是一个延迟1-2秒紧跟说话者的影子。与被动听力或语法练习不同，跟读法强迫您的大脑和口腔肌肉同时处理并模仿真实的讲话模式。研究表明它能显着提高发音准确性，语调，节奏，连读，听力理解和口语流利度——使其成为雅思口语备考和真实英语交流最有效的方法之一。

影子跟读法: 阅读完整分步指南 →

跟读练习: Why China's population is shrinking - 通过视频学习英语口语

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