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This chart shows
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China's birth and death rate over the last 60 years.
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For most of it, births are high.
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But in 2022, China had more deaths than births, causing its population to decrease for the first time in six decades.
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To get why this is such a big deal, consider this.
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China is the world's manufacturing superpower, and that's in large part because of its huge population.
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Nearly 30 % of the country's economic output comes from manufacturing.
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Now here's China's population over the last 60 years.
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Even after losing almost a million people in 2022, its population is still about as big as it's ever been — 1 .4 billion people.
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But that's projected to shrink by nearly half by the end of the century.
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Over the years, China's growth and policies have contributed to its population decline.
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Today, it's looking to reverse course, to keep its population steady.
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The problem is, it might be too late.
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In the 50s under Mao, China experienced one of the most gruesome famines on record.
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30 million people died.
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If we look at that on the birth and death rates chart, you'll see a big spike in deaths.
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At the same time, the birth rate dropped, causing the population to shrink.
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But as often happens with wars, famines and other major crises, immediately after, there was a baby boom.
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Combined with global medical advances that decreased infant mortality rates, China's average family now had six children.
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The birth rate had skyrocketed, which the government saw as a big problem.
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The Chinese leadership realized the population was growing too fast and something needs to be done.
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The government came out with a policy.
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They called it later, longer, fewer.
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Later marriages, longer birth intervals, and fewer births.
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As a result, China's birth rate started trending down.
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But it wasn't low enough for China's leaders.
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And in 1980, they implemented the extreme one -child policy, which limited most families to one child.
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That policy was also backed up by very harsh measures.
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There were campaigns of sterilization, IOD insertion, and induced abortions.
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And while these campaigns began during the later longer -fewer era, they were at their worst under the one -child policy,
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when China sterilized 20 million men and women and induced nearly 15 million abortions in a single year.
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But China had accomplished its goal.
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Population growth was under control.
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Except, as China would soon realize, these restrictive policies worked a little too well.
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In order for any population to stay the same size in the long run, each couple needs to have, on average, 2 .1 children.
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This is called the replacement rate.
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The idea is that one child replaces one parent, and that 0 .1 makes up for children who die before they become adults.
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But China has had a fertility rate that's far below two for over three decades.
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To bring that up, in 2016, China finally ended the one -child policy.
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And after briefly trying out a three -child policy, in 2021, they finally let families have as many children as they'd like.
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But it hasn't worked.
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One big reason is the unique family structure produced by the one -child policy.
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We're looking at what's called a 4 -to -1 family structure with a couple having four parents above them
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and one child below.
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Most countries have diverse family structures, some with three kids, others with none.
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But with China's 4 -to -1 model, millions of only children are under increasing pressure to care for their aging parents and elderly grandparents.
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And this can make having multiple children even harder, especially as the cost of living keeps rising.
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A recent survey revealed
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that more than 50 % of young people don't want more than one child because of financial and work pressures.
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We've seen cash subsidies for additional birth, longer maternal leaves, subsidizes for kindergarten,
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and all sorts of monetary support.
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Well, the thing is, almost none of them has worked because having a child is exceedingly expensive and it's a lifelong commitment.
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And so it's not — it's really actually hard to put a price on this.
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But China's population crisis isn't just about babies.
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It's also about the balance between young and old.
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If we look at population pyramids that show distribution by age, we see that countries like Kenya, with rapid population growth, look like this.
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Wide at the bottom, representing a lot of new young people, and narrow at the top.
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Countries experiencing slower growth, like the Philippines, are still triangular, but the difference between top and bottom is less pronounced.
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Now take a look at China and notice the narrow bottom, so fewer babies, and the heavy top, a larger number of elderly people.
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Which is happy.
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outcome of our improvement in health and in standard of living,
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but combined with sustained low fertility and that just produces sustained population aging.
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In 2050, that pyramid is projected to look like this.
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And that will further drive down
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China's population, shrink its labor force, and put the whole country in a uniquely difficult position.
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In the 80s, China became a hotspot for foreign investment, cheap manufacturing and exports.
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A generation later, it was shooting up the ranks and becoming one of the world's leading and fastest growing economies by GDP.
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But not only did that economic modernization drive birth rates down further, it also didn't translate to an equally strong economy for everyone.
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If we look at the GDP per capita, the best indicator we have for standard of living, China is much lower than these high -income countries.
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China became a major world economy nearly overnight, but it's still a middle -income country.
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Many, especially in rural areas, haven't benefited much from China's economic boom.
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And China has yet to develop the necessary safety nets to support its aging population.
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To build the social infrastructure,
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like the social programs in health care and in pension, It takes time.
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And that's getting actually tougher with the economy that's slowing down.
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And a slower economy will inevitably redefine
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China's role in the world as a manufacturing superpower.
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What this means for China,
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for the world, is that the resource constraints from within would also constrain the Chinese ambition and its global reach.
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In some ways, China isn't alone.
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A lot of Asian and European countries are experiencing population declines, too.
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What makes China different is how fast this all has happened.
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It was only 40 years ago that
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China started leveraging its booming population to become an economic superpower, all while still trying to stem population growth.
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Now that China's population growth is officially over, China may have to rethink its future, not just as a global superpower,
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but for its citizens at home, too.
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Vocabolario e note di pronuncia per questa lezione
Questa lezione di conversazione si basa sul video “Why China's population is shrinking”. Le parole che ritornano più spesso: population, China, birth, rate, policy. Questo video contiene 87 frasi e 1091 parole da ripetere con lo shadowing. Il parlato dura 7:22. Chi parla mantiene un ritmo costante di circa 148 parole al minuto, comodo per lo shadowing. Il 85% delle parole rientra nelle 3.000 più comuni dell’inglese; conviene studiare le altre prima di iniziare.
Vocaboli chiave di questo video
15 parole del video che vale la pena imparare, con pronuncia e significato:
| Parola | Pronuncia | Significato |
|---|---|---|
| fewer | /ˈfjuː.ɚ/ | meno |
| chart sostantivo | /t͡ʃɑɹt/ | carta, carta nautica |
| decline verbo | /dɪˈklaɪn/ | declinare |
| narrow aggettivo | /ˈnæɹəʊ/ | stretto, angusto |
| abortion sostantivo | /əˈbɔɹ.ʃn̩/ | aborto |
| decrease verbo | /dɪˈkɹiːs/ | diminuire, calare |
| elderly aggettivo | /ˈɛldɚli/ | anziano |
| combine verbo | /kəmˈbaɪn/ | combinare, mischiare |
| sustain verbo | /səˈsteɪn/ | sostenere |
| pyramid sostantivo | /ˈpɪɹ.ə.mɪd/ | piramide |
| famine sostantivo | /ˈfæm.ɪn/ | carestia |
| induce verbo | /ɪnˈduːs/ | persuadere, incitare |
| subsidy sostantivo | /ˈsʌbsɪdi/ | sovvenzione, sussidio |
| infrastructure sostantivo | /ˈɪnfɹəˌstɹʌkt͡ʃə/ | infrastruttura |
| rank sostantivo | /ˈɹæŋk/ | traversa |
I phrasal verb che sentirai
| Parola | Significato |
|---|---|
| slow down verbo | rallentare, decelerare |
| try out verbo | saggiare, collaudare |
La grammatica di questo video
Le strutture che chi parla usa di più, con le parole esatte del video:
| Struttura | Nel video |
|---|---|
| Present perfect have/has + participio passato — un’azione passata che conta ancora adesso | it's ever been · have contributed · has had |
| Forma passiva be + participio passato — conta ciò che accade, non chi lo fa | be done · was also backed · is called |
Pronuncia a cui fare attenzione
Chi parla usa 10 contrazioni e forme ridotte, come isn't, didn't, don't. Pronunciale nella forma breve, così come le senti.
- I suoni “sh” e “zh”: abortion /əˈbɔɹ.ʃn̩/, pension /ˈpɛnʃən/, harsh /ˈhɑɹʃ/, accomplish /əˈkɑm.plɪʃ/, ambition /æmˈbɪʃ.ən/
- Parole lunghe — attenzione all’accento: fertility /fɝˈtɪləti/, infrastructure /ˈɪnfɹəˌstɹʌkt͡ʃə/, monetary /ˈmʌnɪtəɹi/, indicator /ˈɪn.dɪˌkeɪ.tə(ɹ)/, inevitably /ɪˈnɛvɪtəbli/
I suoni difficili per chi parla italiano:
- Consonante finale — senza aggiungere una vocale dopo: chart /t͡ʃɑɹt/, decrease /dɪˈkɹiːs/, pyramid /ˈpɪɹ.ə.mɪd/, induce /ɪnˈduːs/, rank /ˈɹæŋk/
- /æ/ — più aperta della “e”: narrow /ˈnæɹəʊ/, famine /ˈfæm.ɪn/, rank /ˈɹæŋk/, rapid /ˈɹæp.ɪd/, translate /tɹænzˈleɪt/
Come esercitarsi con questo video
- Ascolta tutto il video una volta senza parlare e annota le parole che non conosci.
- Fai shadowing frase per frase a velocità normale, ripetendo ognuna finché il tuo ritmo coincide con quello di chi parla.
- Registrati e confronta con l’originale, facendo attenzione a parole come fewer, chart, decline.
Cos'è la tecnica dello Shadowing?
Shadowing è una tecnica di apprendimento delle lingue supportata da studi scientifici, originariamente sviluppata per la formazione dei traduttori professionisti e resa popolare dal poliglotta Dr. Alexander Arguelles. Il metodo è semplice ma potente: ascolti un audio in inglese di madrelingua e lo ripeti immediatamente ad alta voce — come un'ombra che segue il parlante con un ritardo di solo 1–2 secondi. A differenza dell'ascolto passivo o degli esercizi di grammatica, lo shadowing costringe il tuo cervello e i muscoli della bocca a elaborare e riprodurre simultaneamente i modelli di discorso reale. La ricerca dimostra che migliora significativamente la precisione della pronuncia, l'intonazione, il ritmo, il discorso connesso, la comprensione dell'ascolto e la fluidità del parlato — rendendolo uno dei metodi più efficaci per la preparazione alla prova di speaking dell'IELTS e per la comunicazione reale in inglese.