Практика Shadowing: Why China's population is shrinking - Изучайте разговорный английский по видео

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This chart shows

China's birth and death rate over the last 60 years.

For most of it, births are high.

But in 2022, China had more deaths than births, causing its population to decrease for the first time in six decades.

To get why this is such a big deal, consider this.

China is the world's manufacturing superpower, and that's in large part because of its huge population.

Nearly 30 % of the country's economic output comes from manufacturing.

Now here's China's population over the last 60 years.

Even after losing almost a million people in 2022, its population is still about as big as it's ever been — 1 .4 billion people.

But that's projected to shrink by nearly half by the end of the century.

Over the years, China's growth and policies have contributed to its population decline.

Today, it's looking to reverse course, to keep its population steady.

The problem is, it might be too late.

In the 50s under Mao, China experienced one of the most gruesome famines on record.

30 million people died.

If we look at that on the birth and death rates chart, you'll see a big spike in deaths.

At the same time, the birth rate dropped, causing the population to shrink.

But as often happens with wars, famines and other major crises, immediately after, there was a baby boom.

Combined with global medical advances that decreased infant mortality rates, China's average family now had six children.

The birth rate had skyrocketed, which the government saw as a big problem.

The Chinese leadership realized the population was growing too fast and something needs to be done.

The government came out with a policy.

They called it later, longer, fewer.

Later marriages, longer birth intervals, and fewer births.

As a result, China's birth rate started trending down.

But it wasn't low enough for China's leaders.

And in 1980, they implemented the extreme one -child policy, which limited most families to one child.

That policy was also backed up by very harsh measures.

There were campaigns of sterilization, IOD insertion, and induced abortions.

And while these campaigns began during the later longer -fewer era, they were at their worst under the one -child policy,

when China sterilized 20 million men and women and induced nearly 15 million abortions in a single year.

But China had accomplished its goal.

Population growth was under control.

Except, as China would soon realize, these restrictive policies worked a little too well.

In order for any population to stay the same size in the long run, each couple needs to have, on average, 2 .1 children.

This is called the replacement rate.

The idea is that one child replaces one parent, and that 0 .1 makes up for children who die before they become adults.

But China has had a fertility rate that's far below two for over three decades.

To bring that up, in 2016, China finally ended the one -child policy.

And after briefly trying out a three -child policy, in 2021, they finally let families have as many children as they'd like.

But it hasn't worked.

One big reason is the unique family structure produced by the one -child policy.

We're looking at what's called a 4 -to -1 family structure with a couple having four parents above them

and one child below.

Most countries have diverse family structures, some with three kids, others with none.

But with China's 4 -to -1 model, millions of only children are under increasing pressure to care for their aging parents and elderly grandparents.

And this can make having multiple children even harder, especially as the cost of living keeps rising.

A recent survey revealed

that more than 50 % of young people don't want more than one child because of financial and work pressures.

We've seen cash subsidies for additional birth, longer maternal leaves, subsidizes for kindergarten,

and all sorts of monetary support.

Well, the thing is, almost none of them has worked because having a child is exceedingly expensive and it's a lifelong commitment.

And so it's not — it's really actually hard to put a price on this.

But China's population crisis isn't just about babies.

It's also about the balance between young and old.

If we look at population pyramids that show distribution by age, we see that countries like Kenya, with rapid population growth, look like this.

Wide at the bottom, representing a lot of new young people, and narrow at the top.

Countries experiencing slower growth, like the Philippines, are still triangular, but the difference between top and bottom is less pronounced.

Now take a look at China and notice the narrow bottom, so fewer babies, and the heavy top, a larger number of elderly people.

Which is happy.

outcome of our improvement in health and in standard of living,

but combined with sustained low fertility and that just produces sustained population aging.

In 2050, that pyramid is projected to look like this.

And that will further drive down

China's population, shrink its labor force, and put the whole country in a uniquely difficult position.

In the 80s, China became a hotspot for foreign investment, cheap manufacturing and exports.

A generation later, it was shooting up the ranks and becoming one of the world's leading and fastest growing economies by GDP.

But not only did that economic modernization drive birth rates down further, it also didn't translate to an equally strong economy for everyone.

If we look at the GDP per capita, the best indicator we have for standard of living, China is much lower than these high -income countries.

China became a major world economy nearly overnight, but it's still a middle -income country.

Many, especially in rural areas, haven't benefited much from China's economic boom.

And China has yet to develop the necessary safety nets to support its aging population.

To build the social infrastructure,

like the social programs in health care and in pension, It takes time.

And that's getting actually tougher with the economy that's slowing down.

And a slower economy will inevitably redefine

China's role in the world as a manufacturing superpower.

What this means for China,

for the world, is that the resource constraints from within would also constrain the Chinese ambition and its global reach.

In some ways, China isn't alone.

A lot of Asian and European countries are experiencing population declines, too.

What makes China different is how fast this all has happened.

It was only 40 years ago that

China started leveraging its booming population to become an economic superpower, all while still trying to stem population growth.

Now that China's population growth is officially over, China may have to rethink its future, not just as a global superpower,

but for its citizens at home, too.

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Лексика и советы по произношению к этому уроку

Этот урок разговорной практики построен на видео «Why China's population is shrinking». Чаще всего повторяются слова: population, China, birth, rate, policy. В этом видео 87 предложений и 1091 слов для шедоуинга. Речь длится 7:22. Говорящий держит ровный темп — около 148 слов в минуту, удобный для шедоуинга. 85% слов входят в 3000 самых частых слов английского языка; остальные стоит разобрать перед занятием.

Ключевая лексика этого видео

15 слов из видео, которые стоит выучить, с произношением и значением:

Слово	Произношение	Значение
fewer	/ˈfjuː.ɚ/	ме́ньше
boom глагол	/bum/	рокота́ть, грохота́ть
chart существительное	/t͡ʃɑɹt/	морска́я ка́рта
decline глагол	/dɪˈklaɪn/	спада́ть
narrow прилагательное	/ˈnæɹəʊ/	у́зкий, те́сный
abortion существительное	/əˈbɔɹ.ʃn̩/	або́рт
decrease глагол	/dɪˈkɹiːs/	уменьша́ться, уме́ньшиться
elderly прилагательное	/ˈɛldɚli/	ста́рый, пожило́й
combine глагол	/kəmˈbaɪn/	комбини́ровать, скомбини́ровать
sustain глагол	/səˈsteɪn/	подде́рживать, содержа́ть
fertility существительное	/fɝˈtɪləti/	плодоро́дие, плодови́тость
pyramid существительное	/ˈpɪɹ.ə.mɪd/	пирами́да
famine существительное	/ˈfæm.ɪn/	го́лод
induce глагол	/ɪnˈduːs/	побужда́ть, убежда́ть
subsidy существительное	/ˈsʌbsɪdi/	субси́дия

Фразовые глаголы, которые вы услышите

Слово	Значение
back up глагол	дава́ть за́дний ход
slow down глагол	замедля́ть, заме́длить
try out глагол	про́бовать, попро́бовать

Грамматика в этом видео

Конструкции, которые говорящий использует чаще всего, с точными словами из видео:

Конструкция	В видео
Present Perfect have/has + причастие прошедшего времени — прошлое действие, важное сейчас	it's ever been · have contributed · has had
Пассивный залог be + причастие прошедшего времени — важно, что происходит, а не кто это делает	be done · was also backed · is called

Произношение, на которое стоит обратить внимание

Говорящий использует 10 сокращённых и редуцированных форм, например isn't, didn't, don't. Произносите их коротко, так, как слышите.

Звуки «sh» и «zh»: abortion /əˈbɔɹ.ʃn̩/, pension /ˈpɛnʃən/, harsh /ˈhɑɹʃ/, accomplish /əˈkɑm.plɪʃ/, ambition /æmˈbɪʃ.ən/
Длинные слова — следите за ударением: fertility /fɝˈtɪləti/, infrastructure /ˈɪnfɹəˌstɹʌkt͡ʃə/, monetary /ˈmʌnɪtəɹi/, indicator /ˈɪn.dɪˌkeɪ.tə(ɹ)/, inevitably /ɪˈnɛvɪtəbli/

Звуки, трудные для русскоязычных:

Звонкие согласные в конце слова — не оглушайте их: pyramid /ˈpɪɹ.ə.mɪd/, rapid /ˈɹæp.ɪd/, leverage /ˈlɛv.(ə.)ɹɪd͡ʒ/, restrictive /ɹɪˈstɹɪktɪv/, sterilize /ˈstɛɹɪlaɪz/

Как заниматься с этим видео

Прослушайте всё видео один раз молча и выпишите незнакомые слова.
Повторяйте предложение за предложением на обычной скорости, пока ваш ритм не совпадёт с ритмом говорящего.
Запишите себя и сравните с оригиналом, обращая внимание на такие слова, как fewer, boom, chart.

Что такое техника Shadowing?

Shadowing — это научно обоснованная техника изучения языка, изначально разработанная для подготовки профессиональных переводчиков и популяризированная полиглотом доктором Александром Аргуэльесом. Метод прост, но эффективен: вы слушаете аудио на английском от носителей языка и немедленно повторяете вслух — как тень, следующая за говорящим с задержкой в 1–2 секунды. В отличие от пассивного прослушивания или грамматических упражнений, Shadowing заставляет мозг и мышцы рта одновременно обрабатывать и воспроизводить реальные речевые паттерны. Исследования показывают, что это значительно улучшает точность произношения, интонацию, ритм, связную речь, понимание на слух и беглость речи — что делает его одним из самых эффективных методов для подготовки к IELTS Speaking и реального общения на английском.

Техника шедоуинга: читать полное пошаговое руководство →

Практика Shadowing: Why China's population is shrinking - Изучайте разговорный английский по видео

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