تدريب Shadowing: Warren Buffett & Charlie Munger: Diversification - تعلم التحدث بالإنجليزية عبر الفيديو

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My name is Mark Hake.

I'm from Scottsdale, Arizona, and I am very interested in your policies on diversification and also how you concentrate your investments.

And I've studied your annual reports going back a good number of years, and there's been years where you had a lot of stocks in your marketable,

equitable securities portfolio, and there was one year where you only had three in 1987.

So I have two questions.

Given the number of stocks that you have in the portfolio now, what does that imply about your view of the market in terms of is it fairly valued,

that kind of idea?

And second of all, it seems that whenever you take a new investment, you never take less than about 5 %

and never more than about 10 % of the total portfolio with that new position.

And I wanted to see if I'm correct about that.

Yeah, well, on the second point, that really isn't correct.

We have positions which you don't even see because we only listed the ones above $600 million in the last report, and obviously those are all smaller positions.

Sometimes that's because they're smaller companies and we couldn't get that much money in.

Sometimes it's because the prices moved up after we bought them.

Sometimes it's because we may be selling the position down even.

But so we have no – there's nothing magic.

We like to put a lot of money in things that we feel strongly about.

And that gets back to the diversification question.

We think diversification, as practice generally, makes very little sense for anyone that knows what they're doing.

Diversification is a protection against ignorance.

I mean, if you want to make sure that nothing bad happens to you relative to the market, you own everything.

There's nothing wrong with that.

I mean, that is a perfectly sound approach for somebody who does not feel they know how to analyze businesses.

If you know how to analyze businesses and value businesses, it's crazy to own 50 stocks or 40 stocks or 30 stocks probably.

Because there aren't that many wonderful businesses that are understandable to a single human being in all likelihood.

And to have some super wonderful business and then put money in number 30

or 35 on your list of attractiveness and forego putting more money into number one just strikes Charlie and me as madness.

And it's conventional practice, and it may, you know, if all you have to achieve is average,

it may preserve your job.

But it's a confession, in our view, that you don't really understand the businesses that you own.

On a personal portfolio basis, I own one stock.

But it's a business I know.

And it leaves me very comfortable.

So, do I need to own 28 stocks in order to have proper diversification?

It would be nonsense.

And within Berkshire, I could pick out three of our businesses,

and I would be very happy if they were the only businesses we owned and I had all my money in Berkshire.

Now, I love the fact that we can find more than that and that we keep adding to it.

But three wonderful businesses is more than you need in this life to do very well.

And the average person isn't going to run into that.

I mean, if you look at how the fortunes were built in this country, they weren't built out of a portfolio of 50 companies.

They were built by someone who identified with a wonderful business.

Coca -Cola is a great example.

A lot of fortunes have been built on that.

And there aren't 50 Coca -Colas.

There aren't 20.

If there were, it would be fine.

We could all go out and diversify like crazy among

that group and get results that would be equal to owning the really wonderful one.

But you're not going to find it.

And the truth is you don't need it.

I mean,

if you have a really wonderful business is very well protected against the vicissitudes of the economy over time and competition.

I mean, you know, we're talking about businesses that are resistant to effective competition,

and three of those will be better than 100 average businesses.

And they'll be safer, incidentally.

I mean,

there is less risk in owning three easy -to -identify wonderful businesses than there is in owning 50 well -known big businesses.

And it's amazing what has been taught over the years in finance classes about that.

But I can assure you that I would rather pick...

If I had to bet the next 30 years on the fortunes of my family

that would be dependent upon the income from a given group of businesses, I would rather pick three businesses from those we own than own a diversified group of 50.

Charlie?

Yeah, what he's saying is that much of what is taught in modern corporate finance courses is twaddle.

Do you want to elaborate on that, Charlie?

You cannot believe this stuff.

I mean, it's a modern portfolio theory, and, yeah, it's...

It has no utility.

I mean, it will tell you how to do average, but, you know, I think anybody can figure out how to do average in fifth grade.

I mean, it's just not that difficult.

It's elaborate, and, you know, there's lots of little Greek letters and all kinds of things to make you feel that you're in the big leagues, but there is no value added.

I have great difficulty with it because I am something of a student of dementia, and I have...

I can ordinarily classify dementia on some theory structure of models, but the modern portfolio theory,

it involves a type of dementia I just can't even classify.

Something very strange is going on.

If you find three wonderful businesses in your life, you'll get very rich.

and and if you understand them bad things aren't going to happen to

that those three i mean

that that's the characteristic of it by the way maybe that's the reason there's

so much dementia

if you believe what warren said you could teach the whole course in about a week yeah

and the high priest wouldn't have any edge over the lay people and that that never sells well Right.

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المفردات وملاحظات التحدث لهذا الدرس

يحتوي هذا الفيديو على 82 جملة و1039 كلمة للتدرب على الترديد. مدة الكلام 7:12. يتكلم المتحدث بسرعة ثابتة، نحو 144 كلمة في الدقيقة، وهي سرعة مريحة للترديد. 86% من الكلمات ضمن أكثر 3,000 كلمة شيوعًا في الإنجليزية، ويُستحسن مراجعة الباقي قبل البدء.

أهم المفردات في هذا الفيديو

15 كلمة من الفيديو تستحق التعلّم، مع النطق والمعنى:

الكلمة	النطق	المعنى
dementia اسم	/dɪˈmɛnʃə/	خَرَف
analyze فعل	/ˈæn.əˌlaɪz/	حَلَّلَ
relative اسم	/ˈɹɛl.ə.tɪv/	قَرِيب, قَرِيبَة
difficulty اسم	/ˈdɪfɪkəlti/	صُعُوبَة
priest اسم	/ˈpɹiːst/	كَاهِن, قِسِّيس
dependent صفة	/dɪˈpɛndənt/	مُتَوَقِّفْ, مُعْتَمِدْ
conventional صفة	/kənˈvɛnʃənl̩/	عُرْفِيّ
leaf اسم	/lif/	وَرَقَة, وَرَقة
nonsense اسم	/ˈnɒn.səns/	هُرَاء, لَغْو
preserve فعل	/pɹəˈzɝv/	حَافَظَ
concentrate فعل	/ˈkɑn.sən.tɹeɪt/	رَكَّزَ
assure فعل	/əˈʃʊɹ/	أَكَّدَ
ignorance اسم	/ˈɪɡ.nɚ.əns/	جَهْل, جَهَالَة
characteristic اسم	/ˌkæɹ(ə)ktəˈɹɪstɪk/	صِفَة
madness اسم	/ˈmæd.nəs/	جُنُون

الأفعال المركبة التي ستسمعها

الكلمة	المعنى
go out فعل	خَرَجَ

القواعد في هذا الفيديو

أكثر التراكيب التي يستخدمها المتحدث، مع العبارات نفسها من الفيديو:

التركيب	في الفيديو
الجمل الشرطية if + جملة، will/would + فعل — شرط ونتيجته	If there were, it would be
المبني للمجهول be + اسم المفعول — التركيز على ما يحدث لا على من يفعله	were built · have been built · has been taught
المضارع التام have/has + اسم المفعول — حدث ماضٍ ما زال له أثر الآن	I've studied · have been built · has been taught
جمل الوصل who / which + جملة — معلومة إضافية عن شخص أو شيء	somebody who does · someone who identified

نطق يحتاج إلى انتباه

يستخدم المتحدث 23 من الصيغ المختصرة، مثل aren't, don't, I'm. انطقها بصيغتها القصيرة كما تسمعها.

أصوات “sh” و“zh”: dementia /dɪˈmɛnʃə/, conventional /kənˈvɛnʃənl̩/, assure /əˈʃʊɹ/, confession /kənˈfɛʃən/, diversification /daɪˌvɜːsɪfɪˈkeɪʃən/
الكلمات الطويلة — انتبه لموضع النبر: portfolio /pɔːtˈfəʊ.liˌəʊ/, elaborate /ɪˈlæb.ə.ɹeɪt/, difficulty /ˈdɪfɪkəlti/, utility /juːˈtɪlɪti/, characteristic /ˌkæɹ(ə)ktəˈɹɪstɪk/

كيف تتدرب بهذا الفيديو

استمع إلى الفيديو كاملًا مرة واحدة دون أن تتكلم، ودوّن الكلمات التي لا تعرفها.
ردّد جملة جملة بالسرعة العادية، وكرّر كل جملة حتى يتطابق إيقاعك مع المتحدث.
سجّل صوتك وقارنه بالأصل، مع الانتباه إلى كلمات مثل dementia, analyze, relative.

ما هي تقنية التظليل الصوتي؟

التظليل الصوتي (Shadowing) تقنية تعلم لغة مدعومة علمياً، طُورت أصلاً لتدريب المترجمين الفوريين المحترفين. الطريقة بسيطة لكنها قوية: تستمع لصوت إنجليزي أصلي وتكرره فوراً بصوت عالٍ — كظل يتبع المتحدث بتأخير 1-2 ثانية. تُظهر الأبحاث تحسناً كبيراً في دقة النطق والتنغيم والإيقاع وربط الأصوات والاستماع والطلاقة.

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تدريب Shadowing: Warren Buffett & Charlie Munger: Diversification - تعلم التحدث بالإنجليزية عبر الفيديو

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