Prática de Shadowing: Warren Buffett & Charlie Munger: Diversification - Aprenda a falar inglês com vídeo
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My name is Mark Hake.
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I'm from Scottsdale, Arizona, and I am very interested in your policies on diversification and also how you concentrate your investments.
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And I've studied your annual reports going back a good number of years, and there's been years where you had a lot of stocks in your marketable,
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equitable securities portfolio, and there was one year where you only had three in 1987.
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So I have two questions.
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Given the number of stocks that you have in the portfolio now, what does that imply about your view of the market in terms of is it fairly valued,
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that kind of idea?
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And second of all, it seems that whenever you take a new investment, you never take less than about 5 %
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and never more than about 10 % of the total portfolio with that new position.
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And I wanted to see if I'm correct about that.
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Yeah, well, on the second point, that really isn't correct.
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We have positions which you don't even see because we only listed the ones above $600 million in the last report, and obviously those are all smaller positions.
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Sometimes that's because they're smaller companies and we couldn't get that much money in.
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Sometimes it's because the prices moved up after we bought them.
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Sometimes it's because we may be selling the position down even.
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But so we have no – there's nothing magic.
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We like to put a lot of money in things that we feel strongly about.
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And that gets back to the diversification question.
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We think diversification, as practice generally, makes very little sense for anyone that knows what they're doing.
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Diversification is a protection against ignorance.
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I mean, if you want to make sure that nothing bad happens to you relative to the market, you own everything.
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There's nothing wrong with that.
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I mean, that is a perfectly sound approach for somebody who does not feel they know how to analyze businesses.
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If you know how to analyze businesses and value businesses, it's crazy to own 50 stocks or 40 stocks or 30 stocks probably.
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Because there aren't that many wonderful businesses that are understandable to a single human being in all likelihood.
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And to have some super wonderful business and then put money in number 30
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or 35 on your list of attractiveness and forego putting more money into number one just strikes Charlie and me as madness.
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And it's conventional practice, and it may, you know, if all you have to achieve is average,
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it may preserve your job.
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But it's a confession, in our view, that you don't really understand the businesses that you own.
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On a personal portfolio basis, I own one stock.
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But it's a business I know.
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And it leaves me very comfortable.
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So, do I need to own 28 stocks in order to have proper diversification?
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It would be nonsense.
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And within Berkshire, I could pick out three of our businesses,
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and I would be very happy if they were the only businesses we owned and I had all my money in Berkshire.
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Now, I love the fact that we can find more than that and that we keep adding to it.
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But three wonderful businesses is more than you need in this life to do very well.
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And the average person isn't going to run into that.
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I mean, if you look at how the fortunes were built in this country, they weren't built out of a portfolio of 50 companies.
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They were built by someone who identified with a wonderful business.
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Coca -Cola is a great example.
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A lot of fortunes have been built on that.
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And there aren't 50 Coca -Colas.
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There aren't 20.
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If there were, it would be fine.
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We could all go out and diversify like crazy among
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that group and get results that would be equal to owning the really wonderful one.
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But you're not going to find it.
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And the truth is you don't need it.
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I mean,
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if you have a really wonderful business is very well protected against the vicissitudes of the economy over time and competition.
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I mean, you know, we're talking about businesses that are resistant to effective competition,
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and three of those will be better than 100 average businesses.
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And they'll be safer, incidentally.
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I mean,
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there is less risk in owning three easy -to -identify wonderful businesses than there is in owning 50 well -known big businesses.
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And it's amazing what has been taught over the years in finance classes about that.
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But I can assure you that I would rather pick...
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If I had to bet the next 30 years on the fortunes of my family
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that would be dependent upon the income from a given group of businesses, I would rather pick three businesses from those we own than own a diversified group of 50.
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Charlie?
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Yeah, what he's saying is that much of what is taught in modern corporate finance courses is twaddle.
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Do you want to elaborate on that, Charlie?
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You cannot believe this stuff.
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I mean, it's a modern portfolio theory, and, yeah, it's...
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It has no utility.
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I mean, it will tell you how to do average, but, you know, I think anybody can figure out how to do average in fifth grade.
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I mean, it's just not that difficult.
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It's elaborate, and, you know, there's lots of little Greek letters and all kinds of things to make you feel that you're in the big leagues, but there is no value added.
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I have great difficulty with it because I am something of a student of dementia, and I have...
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I can ordinarily classify dementia on some theory structure of models, but the modern portfolio theory,
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it involves a type of dementia I just can't even classify.
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Something very strange is going on.
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If you find three wonderful businesses in your life, you'll get very rich.
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and and if you understand them bad things aren't going to happen to
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that those three i mean
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that that's the characteristic of it by the way maybe that's the reason there's
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so much dementia
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if you believe what warren said you could teach the whole course in about a week yeah
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and the high priest wouldn't have any edge over the lay people and that that never sells well Right.
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Vocabulário e dicas de fala para esta lição
Este vídeo tem 82 frases e 1039 palavras para praticar shadowing. A fala dura 7:12. O falante mantém um ritmo estável de cerca de 144 palavras por minuto, confortável para o shadowing. 86% das palavras estão entre as 3.000 mais comuns do inglês; vale a pena estudar o restante antes de começar.
Vocabulário principal deste vídeo
15 palavras do vídeo que vale a pena aprender, com pronúncia e significado:
| Palavra | Pronúncia | Significado |
|---|---|---|
| portfolio substantivo | /pɔːtˈfəʊ.liˌəʊ/ | porta-fólio, portfólio |
| dementia substantivo | /dɪˈmɛnʃə/ | demência |
| fortune substantivo | /ˈfɔːtjuːn/ | destino, fortuna |
| elaborate verbo | /ɪˈlæb.ə.ɹeɪt/ | argumentar |
| analyze verbo | /ˈæn.əˌlaɪz/ | analisar |
| relative substantivo | /ˈɹɛl.ə.tɪv/ | parente, parenta |
| difficulty substantivo | /ˈdɪfɪkəlti/ | dificuldade |
| priest substantivo | /ˈpɹiːst/ | padre, sacerdote |
| dependent adjetivo | /dɪˈpɛndənt/ | dependente |
| involve verbo | /ɪnˈvɑlv/ | envolver |
| utility substantivo | /juːˈtɪlɪti/ | utilidade |
| warren substantivo | /ˈwɔɹən/ | toca, covil |
| conventional adjetivo | /kənˈvɛnʃənl̩/ | convencional |
| leaf substantivo | /lif/ | folha |
| nonsense substantivo | /ˈnɒn.səns/ | besteira, bobagem |
Phrasal verbs que você vai ouvir
| Palavra | Significado |
|---|---|
| figure out verbo | descobrir, deduzir |
| go back verbo | voltar |
| go out verbo | sair |
Gramática neste vídeo
As estruturas que o falante mais usa, com as palavras exatas do vídeo:
| Estrutura | No vídeo |
|---|---|
| Frases condicionais if + oração, will/would + verbo — uma condição e seu resultado | If there were, it would be |
| Voz passiva be + particípio passado — o foco está no que acontece, não em quem faz | were built · have been built · has been taught |
| Present perfect have/has + particípio passado — uma ação passada que ainda importa agora | I've studied · have been built · has been taught |
| Orações relativas who / which + oração — informação extra sobre uma pessoa ou coisa | somebody who does · someone who identified |
Pronúncia para ficar de olho
O falante usa 23 contrações e formas reduzidas, como aren't, don't, I'm. Diga-as na forma curta, do jeito que você ouve.
- Os sons de “sh” e “zh”: dementia /dɪˈmɛnʃə/, conventional /kənˈvɛnʃənl̩/, assure /əˈʃʊɹ/, confession /kənˈfɛʃən/, diversification /daɪˌvɜːsɪfɪˈkeɪʃən/
- Palavras longas — acerte a sílaba tônica: portfolio /pɔːtˈfəʊ.liˌəʊ/, elaborate /ɪˈlæb.ə.ɹeɪt/, difficulty /ˈdɪfɪkəlti/, utility /juːˈtɪlɪti/, characteristic /ˌkæɹ(ə)ktəˈɹɪstɪk/
Como praticar com este vídeo
- Ouça o vídeo inteiro uma vez sem falar e anote as palavras que você não conhece.
- Faça shadowing frase por frase na velocidade normal, repetindo cada uma até o seu ritmo ficar igual ao do falante.
- Grave a sua voz e compare com o original, prestando atenção a palavras como portfolio, dementia, fortune.
O que é a Técnica de Shadowing?
Shadowing é uma técnica de aprendizado de idiomas com base científica, originalmente desenvolvida para o treinamento de intérpretes profissionais. O método é simples, mas poderoso: você ouve áudio em inglês nativo e repete imediatamente em voz alta — como uma sombra seguindo o falante com 1-2 segundos de atraso. Pesquisas mostram melhora significativa na precisão da pronúncia, entonação, ritmo, sons conectados, compreensão auditiva e fluência na fala.